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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Houston Bush · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KIAH · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.15 [2.62, 4.91]1.83-4.15 [-4.91, -2.62]4.86 [3.43, 5.65]12% [0%, 50%]24%29%-0.16+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.15 [1.03, 4.95]1.83-4.15 [-4.95, -1.03]4.86 [1.35, 5.66]12% [0%, 75%]24%29%-0.16+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.15 [0.61, 4.94]1.83-4.15 [-4.94, -0.61]4.86 [0.63, 5.63]12% [0%, 100%]24%29%-0.16+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.15 [1.00, 4.97]1.83-4.15 [-4.97, -1.00]4.86 [1.30, 5.63]12% [0%, 75%]24%29%-0.16+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC4.79 [3.34, 5.57]1.90-4.79 [-5.57, -3.34]5.52 [3.94, 6.49]6% [0%, 33%]18%29%-0.33+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC4.79 [1.60, 5.54]1.90-4.79 [-5.54, -1.60]5.52 [1.75, 6.55]6% [0%, 53%]18%29%-0.33+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC4.79 [1.26, 5.53]1.90-4.79 [-5.53, -1.26]5.52 [1.27, 6.48]6% [0%, 50%]18%29%-0.33+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC4.79 [1.58, 5.54]1.90-4.79 [-5.54, -1.58]5.52 [1.71, 6.45]6% [0%, 50%]18%29%-0.33+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.84 [2.29, 4.60]1.63-3.81 [-4.59, -2.19]4.46 [2.91, 5.35]6% [0%, 33%]18%35%-0.07+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.84 [1.21, 4.64]1.63-3.81 [-4.62, -0.97]4.46 [1.76, 5.40]6% [0%, 53%]18%35%-0.07+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.84 [1.42, 4.60]1.63-3.81 [-4.58, -1.21]4.46 [1.90, 5.33]6% [0%, 50%]18%35%-0.07+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.84 [1.47, 4.70]1.63-3.81 [-4.70, -1.29]4.46 [1.91, 5.41]6% [0%, 50%]18%35%-0.07+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.49 [2.95, 5.32]1.65-4.49 [-5.32, -2.95]5.12 [3.48, 6.15]6% [0%, 33%]12%18%-0.25+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.49 [1.90, 5.39]1.65-4.49 [-5.39, -1.90]5.12 [2.46, 6.17]6% [0%, 53%]12%18%-0.25+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.49 [2.12, 5.36]1.65-4.49 [-5.36, -2.12]5.12 [2.64, 6.18]6% [0%, 50%]12%18%-0.25+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.49 [2.22, 5.40]1.65-4.49 [-5.40, -2.22]5.12 [2.67, 6.22]6% [0%, 50%]12%18%-0.25+0.382026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.64 [1.86, 3.97]2.30+1.70 [0.35, 3.78]3.34 [2.23, 4.68]12% [0%, 27%]53%65%+0.26+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.64 [1.89, 4.26]2.30+1.70 [0.38, 4.07]3.34 [2.27, 4.85]12% [0%, 28%]53%65%+0.26+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.64 [1.81, 4.24]2.30+1.70 [0.18, 4.05]3.34 [2.13, 4.84]12% [0%, 29%]53%65%+0.26+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.64 [1.78, 4.41]2.30+1.70 [0.09, 4.12]3.34 [2.09, 4.72]12% [0%, 29%]53%65%+0.26+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC2.53 [1.85, 3.68]2.33+1.19 [-0.17, 3.27]3.14 [2.19, 4.30]24% [0%, 41%]53%65%+0.29+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC2.53 [1.86, 3.96]2.33+1.19 [-0.15, 3.60]3.14 [2.12, 4.49]24% [0%, 41%]53%65%+0.29+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC2.53 [1.85, 3.96]2.33+1.19 [-0.36, 3.56]3.14 [2.12, 4.48]24% [0%, 43%]53%65%+0.29+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC2.53 [1.80, 4.06]2.33+1.19 [-0.43, 3.63]3.14 [2.12, 4.39]24% [0%, 43%]53%65%+0.29+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.54 [1.56, 3.97]2.26+2.06 [0.76, 3.92]3.39 [2.04, 4.69]35% [0%, 64%]59%65%+0.29+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.54 [1.55, 4.21]2.26+2.06 [0.74, 4.20]3.39 [2.03, 4.86]35% [0%, 63%]59%65%+0.29+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.54 [1.38, 4.14]2.26+2.06 [0.50, 4.10]3.39 [1.80, 4.83]35% [0%, 67%]59%65%+0.29+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.54 [1.38, 4.02]2.26+2.06 [0.42, 4.01]3.39 [1.72, 4.68]35% [0%, 69%]59%65%+0.29+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.31 [1.44, 3.52]2.30+1.49 [0.16, 3.35]3.13 [1.92, 4.32]29% [0%, 58%]53%71%+0.36+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.31 [1.42, 3.66]2.30+1.49 [0.16, 3.57]3.13 [1.92, 4.49]29% [0%, 59%]53%71%+0.36+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.31 [1.32, 3.63]2.30+1.49 [-0.09, 3.55]3.13 [1.75, 4.45]29% [0%, 62%]53%71%+0.36+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.31 [1.31, 3.55]2.30+1.49 [-0.19, 3.48]3.13 [1.72, 4.33]29% [0%, 61%]53%71%+0.36+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: -0.2 °F2026-08-15: -4.48 °F2026-08-16: -4.75 °F2026-08-17: -4.81 °F2026-08-18: -1.95 °F2026-08-19: -1.18 °F2026-08-20: -5.21 °F2026-08-21: -4.35 °F2026-08-22: -8.86 °F2026-08-23: -3.69 °F2026-08-24: -3.54 °F2026-08-25: -4.77 °F2026-08-26: -5.01 °F2026-08-27: -4.57 °F2026-08-28: -10.25 °F2026-08-29: -2.23 °F2026-08-30: -0.67 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.67
2026-08-29-2.23
2026-08-28-10.25
2026-08-27-4.57
2026-08-26-5.01
2026-08-25-4.77
2026-08-24-3.54
2026-08-23-3.69
2026-08-22-8.86
2026-08-21-4.35
2026-08-20-5.21
2026-08-19-1.18
2026-08-18-1.95
2026-08-17-4.81
2026-08-16-4.75
2026-08-15-4.48
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-0.20

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KIAH, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 8 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.48 · P90 |e| 6.67 °F-200+20 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.008
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08174.15 -4.15

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 +0.25 [-1.70, 2.23] no
NCEP GFS 17 +1.52 [-2.88, 2.94] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -2.78 [-3.88, -1.01] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 +0.56 [-1.80, 2.03] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KIAH ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KIAH (Houston Bush), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KIAH/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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