Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

ECMWF IFS HRES (ifs_hres)

source ecmwf · product oper · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC · native extreme fields mx2t3, mn2t3, mx2t6, mn2t6 (diagnostic only, never in the headline ranking).

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.85-2.82 · n=24 2.76-2.40 · n=22 3.33-2.71 · n=22 3.24-1.86 · n=21 2.69-0.84 · n=20 3.18-0.68 · n=19 3.66-1.59 · n=17 4.20-1.71 · n=17 4.06-1.51 · n=15 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —5.09-5.09 · n=24 4.83-4.83 · n=22 4.33-4.33 · n=22 4.30-4.30 · n=21 4.35-4.35 · n=20 4.22-4.22 · n=19 3.95-3.95 · n=17 4.12-4.12 · n=17 4.00-3.97 · n=15 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —2.47-1.03 · n=23 2.80-1.24 · n=21 2.79-0.73 · n=21 3.67-0.41 · n=20 4.06-0.12 · n=19 3.36-0.94 · n=18 4.42-1.02 · n=16 3.75-1.68 · n=16 4.27-3.34 · n=14 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —3.13-2.61 · n=24 3.52-2.97 · n=22 3.75-3.00 · n=22 3.83-2.29 · n=21 3.57-2.34 · n=20 3.54-2.13 · n=19 4.78-3.37 · n=17 4.97-3.32 · n=17 6.14-4.72 · n=15 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —3.62-3.35 · n=24 3.48-3.33 · n=22 4.06-3.04 · n=22 4.95-4.47 · n=21 4.79-3.81 · n=20 5.54-3.98 · n=19 6.18-5.10 · n=17 6.42-5.30 · n=17 6.22-4.55 · n=14 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —2.83-2.12 · n=24 2.59-1.72 · n=22 2.37-1.25 · n=22 2.44-1.40 · n=21 2.35-1.38 · n=20 2.23-1.09 · n=19 1.99-1.03 · n=17 2.48-0.95 · n=17 3.89-2.06 · n=15 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —3.97-3.61 · n=24 4.30-4.11 · n=22 3.90-3.66 · n=22 3.85-2.61 · n=21 3.35-2.24 · n=20 3.61-2.38 · n=19 4.83-4.22 · n=17 4.15-3.26 · n=17 5.29-4.30 · n=15 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —4.96-4.96 · n=24 4.91-4.91 · n=22 4.03-4.03 · n=22 3.99-3.99 · n=21 4.15-4.15 · n=20 3.72-3.68 · n=19 3.56-3.56 · n=17 3.84-3.81 · n=17 4.49-4.12 · n=15 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —4.69-4.34 · n=24 3.53-2.47 · n=22 3.37-2.24 · n=22 3.70-2.56 · n=21 4.10-3.27 · n=20 4.04-3.81 · n=19 4.84-4.21 · n=17 4.73-3.35 · n=17 5.57-4.67 · n=14 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —2.42-2.18 · n=24 2.28-2.07 · n=22 2.20-1.90 · n=22 2.31-1.54 · n=21 2.29-1.34 · n=20 2.42-1.47 · n=19 2.35-1.67 · n=17 2.59-2.09 · n=17 4.78-3.05 · n=14 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —3.42-3.42 · n=24 3.64-3.64 · n=22 3.87-3.87 · n=22 4.03-4.00 · n=21 4.20-4.07 · n=20 3.05-3.05 · n=19 3.77-3.71 · n=17 4.06-3.99 · n=17 3.92-3.80 · n=15 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —4.11-3.64 · n=24 4.11-2.99 · n=22 4.20-3.45 · n=22 3.76-3.33 · n=21 3.72-3.41 · n=20 3.66-2.56 · n=19 5.04-4.06 · n=17 4.75-4.54 · n=17 3.74-3.57 · n=15 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —4.44-4.07 · n=24 4.71-4.71 · n=22 4.54-4.54 · n=22 4.21-4.21 · n=21 4.61-4.61 · n=20 5.05-5.05 · n=19 5.19-5.15 · n=17 4.15-4.01 · n=17 4.19-3.85 · n=15 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —2.23-0.32 · n=24 2.62-0.67 · n=22 3.08-0.32 · n=22 2.83+0.30 · n=21 2.51+1.02 · n=20 2.97+0.64 · n=19 3.65-1.26 · n=17 3.43-0.03 · n=17 3.84-1.34 · n=15 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —4.48-4.23 · n=24 3.98-2.89 · n=22 3.32-2.86 · n=22 3.31-2.47 · n=21 3.71-1.81 · n=20 4.36-2.21 · n=19 2.88-1.99 · n=17 3.12-1.30 · n=17 4.31-2.60 · n=15 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —2.81-2.58 · n=24 2.64-2.29 · n=22 2.89-1.84 · n=22 2.50-1.95 · n=21 2.31-1.41 · n=20 3.28-1.69 · n=19 3.64-3.11 · n=17 4.82-3.95 · n=17 4.51-4.03 · n=15 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —3.66-3.54 · n=24 4.12-3.78 · n=22 4.04-3.42 · n=22 3.32-2.86 · n=21 3.83-2.76 · n=20 3.60-2.21 · n=19 4.53-3.81 · n=17 4.36-3.33 · n=17 6.44-4.35 · n=15 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —2.99-2.82 · n=24 2.36-2.03 · n=22 2.96-2.73 · n=22 3.17-3.12 · n=21 3.71-3.36 · n=20 2.98-2.65 · n=19 2.99-2.19 · n=17 3.78-2.18 · n=17 5.19-3.50 · n=14 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —5.82-5.82 · n=24 5.82-5.82 · n=22 5.63-5.62 · n=22 5.67-5.61 · n=21 5.80-5.80 · n=20 5.54-5.46 · n=19 5.45-5.44 · n=17 6.06-5.92 · n=17 7.19-6.89 · n=14 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —3.68-3.68 · n=24 3.36-3.36 · n=22 2.99-2.99 · n=22 3.00-3.00 · n=21 2.85-2.85 · n=20 2.87-2.87 · n=19 2.29-2.15 · n=17 2.98-2.62 · n=17 2.92-2.51 · n=15 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —1.99-0.73 · n=24 2.42-0.74 · n=22 2.99-0.77 · n=22 2.75-1.23 · n=21 3.63-1.69 · n=20 4.56-2.07 · n=19 3.34-0.70 · n=17 3.76-1.38 · n=17 5.56-3.27 · n=14 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —6.17-6.17 · n=24 6.16-6.16 · n=22 6.50-6.50 · n=22 6.30-6.30 · n=21 6.22-6.22 · n=20 5.85-5.85 · n=19 6.14-5.97 · n=17 6.40-6.40 · n=17 6.75-6.75 · n=14 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —2.07-0.66 · n=24 2.83-0.75 · n=22 2.75-0.58 · n=22 2.41+0.03 · n=21 2.91+0.33 · n=20 3.42+0.95 · n=19 3.88-1.41 · n=17 3.96-0.12 · n=17 5.16-1.28 · n=15 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —1.58-0.29 · n=24 1.85-0.09 · n=22 1.95+0.24 · n=22 1.90+0.80 · n=21 2.68+0.97 · n=20 2.29+1.44 · n=19 1.82+1.18 · n=17 2.53+1.71 · n=17 3.48+0.17 · n=15 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —3.85+3.73 · n=24 4.42+4.19 · n=22 4.26+3.90 · n=22 4.48+4.28 · n=21 4.62+4.36 · n=20 4.80+4.69 · n=19 5.38+5.28 · n=17 6.11+6.11 · n=17 6.24+6.24 · n=15 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —1.20+0.48 · n=23 1.61+0.81 · n=21 1.86+0.79 · n=21 1.80+1.23 · n=20 2.31+0.61 · n=19 2.09+0.86 · n=18 2.02+0.48 · n=16 1.74+0.98 · n=16 2.76+0.61 · n=14 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —1.81+0.36 · n=24 2.27+0.39 · n=22 2.38+0.43 · n=22 2.80-0.47 · n=21 3.25-0.28 · n=20 2.66-0.01 · n=19 2.36+0.47 · n=17 3.10+0.56 · n=17 2.99-0.30 · n=15 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —2.84+2.22 · n=24 3.40+3.10 · n=22 3.56+3.21 · n=22 3.80+3.24 · n=21 3.26+3.01 · n=20 3.13+2.63 · n=19 2.79+2.56 · n=17 3.06+2.81 · n=17 2.77+1.92 · n=14 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —2.26+2.07 · n=24 2.71+2.71 · n=22 2.92+2.92 · n=22 3.20+3.18 · n=21 3.12+3.12 · n=20 3.44+3.44 · n=19 3.43+3.27 · n=17 3.89+3.86 · n=17 4.49+4.13 · n=15 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —2.21+1.02 · n=24 2.12+1.57 · n=22 2.50+1.80 · n=22 3.10+1.96 · n=21 2.52+1.34 · n=20 2.77+2.07 · n=19 2.89+2.40 · n=17 3.91+2.50 · n=17 3.40+1.48 · n=15 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —1.80+0.82 · n=24 1.62+0.88 · n=22 1.70+1.02 · n=22 1.90+1.36 · n=21 2.00+1.61 · n=20 1.69+1.30 · n=19 2.17+1.99 · n=17 2.54+2.06 · n=17 2.48+1.88 · n=15 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —3.58-2.96 · n=24 3.71-3.16 · n=22 3.84-2.93 · n=22 4.03-2.67 · n=21 4.36-2.67 · n=20 4.66-2.98 · n=19 4.82-3.55 · n=17 5.07-4.42 · n=17 6.05-5.84 · n=14 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —0.76+0.55 · n=24 0.84+0.68 · n=22 1.03+0.71 · n=22 1.36+1.21 · n=21 1.30+1.05 · n=20 1.34+1.19 · n=19 1.78+1.56 · n=17 1.70+1.18 · n=17 2.19-0.09 · n=14 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —1.46-0.31 · n=24 1.71-0.07 · n=22 1.74-0.23 · n=22 1.56-0.02 · n=21 1.82+0.53 · n=20 1.40+0.65 · n=19 1.76+0.50 · n=17 1.76+0.91 · n=17 2.13+0.35 · n=15 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —1.53-0.25 · n=24 1.67-0.13 · n=22 1.64-0.06 · n=22 1.36-0.31 · n=21 2.03+0.08 · n=20 1.77+0.67 · n=19 2.91+0.87 · n=17 2.84-0.33 · n=17 3.62+0.13 · n=15 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —3.11+2.94 · n=24 3.22+2.85 · n=22 3.12+2.90 · n=22 3.61+3.34 · n=21 3.24+2.82 · n=20 3.30+3.11 · n=19 3.68+2.80 · n=17 3.59+2.79 · n=17 3.59+2.24 · n=15 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —1.72+1.46 · n=24 2.14+1.92 · n=22 2.20+2.13 · n=22 3.26+2.69 · n=21 2.24+2.09 · n=20 2.90+2.36 · n=19 2.81+2.58 · n=17 3.45+2.47 · n=17 3.31+1.82 · n=15 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —4.03+4.00 · n=24 4.69+4.41 · n=22 5.40+5.09 · n=22 5.79+5.79 · n=21 6.66+6.66 · n=20 6.90+6.90 · n=19 7.37+7.15 · n=17 7.01+6.78 · n=17 6.14+6.14 · n=15 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —1.47+0.16 · n=24 1.55+0.13 · n=22 1.79+0.30 · n=22 2.07+0.56 · n=21 2.31+0.55 · n=20 2.24+0.68 · n=19 2.30+0.78 · n=17 3.50+0.42 · n=17 3.13-1.13 · n=15 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —1.88-0.23 · n=24 1.98-0.02 · n=22 2.52-0.22 · n=22 3.48-0.32 · n=21 3.03-0.47 · n=20 3.26-0.38 · n=19 2.88+0.41 · n=17 2.77+1.28 · n=17 2.68-0.30 · n=15 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —3.42+0.50 · n=24 3.32+0.77 · n=22 3.48+0.72 · n=22 3.34+0.88 · n=21 3.04+1.12 · n=20 3.05+1.11 · n=19 3.27-0.01 · n=17 4.26+1.12 · n=17 2.80-0.23 · n=14 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —1.11-0.74 · n=24 1.10-0.85 · n=22 1.10-0.96 · n=22 1.26-0.84 · n=21 1.54-1.26 · n=20 1.44-0.76 · n=19 1.44-0.69 · n=17 1.09-0.66 · n=17 1.71-1.10 · n=14 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —1.81+0.52 · n=24 2.32+0.89 · n=22 2.01+0.85 · n=22 2.21+1.22 · n=21 2.79+1.37 · n=20 2.51+1.32 · n=19 2.76+1.94 · n=17 2.91+2.25 · n=17 2.77+2.47 · n=15 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —1.60+1.43 · n=24 1.45+1.43 · n=22 1.55+1.45 · n=22 1.85+1.76 · n=21 1.80+1.35 · n=20 2.20+1.36 · n=19 2.04+1.11 · n=17 1.88+0.75 · n=17 2.09+0.51 · n=14 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —0.87-0.05 · n=24 0.87-0.03 · n=22 0.84-0.19 · n=22 0.79-0.10 · n=21 0.80-0.07 · n=20 0.84-0.32 · n=19 1.24-0.68 · n=17 1.28-0.24 · n=17 1.53-0.27 · n=14 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —3.64+3.64 · n=24 4.04+3.86 · n=22 4.09+4.09 · n=22 4.28+4.11 · n=21 3.98+3.91 · n=20 4.45+4.30 · n=19 4.61+4.61 · n=17 5.95+5.41 · n=17 4.89+4.16 · n=15 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

ecmwf · oper

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0, © ECMWF.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences