Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

ECMWF AIFS Single (aifs_single)

source ecmwf · product aifs-single · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 4.36-4.36 · n=30 4.31-4.31 · n=29 4.38-4.37 · n=28 4.30-4.30 · n=27 4.21-4.21 · n=26 4.77-4.77 · n=25 4.89-4.68 · n=24 4.88-4.80 · n=23 5.53-5.53 · n=22 5.79-5.79 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 5.27-5.27 · n=30 5.34-5.34 · n=29 5.30-5.30 · n=28 5.12-5.12 · n=27 4.87-4.87 · n=26 4.66-4.66 · n=25 4.74-4.74 · n=24 4.82-4.82 · n=23 4.67-4.67 · n=22 4.92-4.81 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 3.25-2.77 · n=29 3.38-2.75 · n=28 3.39-2.92 · n=27 4.06-2.43 · n=26 4.26-2.28 · n=25 4.63-2.29 · n=24 4.68-2.72 · n=23 4.87-3.12 · n=22 5.44-3.11 · n=21 6.27-3.41 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 2.17-1.87 · n=30 2.39-2.14 · n=29 2.57-2.11 · n=28 3.02-2.09 · n=27 2.83-2.52 · n=26 3.54-2.33 · n=25 3.79-3.15 · n=24 3.26-3.06 · n=23 4.53-3.71 · n=22 4.55-3.42 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 3.94-3.91 · n=30 3.92-3.77 · n=29 4.01-3.59 · n=28 3.99-3.59 · n=27 4.26-4.06 · n=26 4.62-4.52 · n=25 5.58-5.35 · n=24 6.66-6.37 · n=23 4.94-4.61 · n=22 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 2.77-2.61 · n=30 2.88-2.60 · n=29 3.15-3.04 · n=28 3.13-2.81 · n=27 3.21-2.67 · n=26 3.66-3.16 · n=25 3.84-3.55 · n=24 4.55-4.24 · n=23 4.80-4.27 · n=22 5.21-4.33 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 2.58-2.54 · n=30 2.71-2.68 · n=29 3.09-2.88 · n=28 2.97-2.59 · n=27 3.49-3.20 · n=26 3.58-3.05 · n=25 3.16-3.01 · n=24 3.86-3.62 · n=23 4.31-4.21 · n=22 5.51-4.99 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 3.46-3.46 · n=30 3.75-3.75 · n=29 3.64-3.64 · n=28 3.66-3.61 · n=27 3.60-3.60 · n=26 3.28-3.28 · n=25 3.25-3.25 · n=24 3.16-3.11 · n=23 3.44-3.23 · n=22 3.76-3.51 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 5.08-4.82 · n=30 4.47-4.34 · n=29 4.95-4.82 · n=28 5.07-5.02 · n=27 5.79-5.28 · n=26 6.05-5.34 · n=25 7.07-6.53 · n=24 7.03-6.78 · n=23 8.25-8.08 · n=22 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 1.48+0.73 · n=30 1.57+1.02 · n=29 1.72+1.18 · n=28 1.70+1.26 · n=27 1.62+0.98 · n=26 2.05+0.55 · n=25 2.15+0.13 · n=24 2.02+0.02 · n=23 1.87-0.57 · n=22 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 4.05-4.05 · n=30 4.35-4.35 · n=29 4.40-4.40 · n=28 4.18-4.18 · n=27 4.32-4.32 · n=26 4.52-4.52 · n=25 4.44-4.44 · n=24 4.27-4.27 · n=23 4.21-4.21 · n=22 4.48-4.48 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 3.15-2.94 · n=30 3.68-3.60 · n=29 3.96-3.63 · n=28 3.90-3.35 · n=27 4.01-3.27 · n=26 4.51-4.08 · n=25 5.85-5.10 · n=24 6.65-6.24 · n=23 6.48-5.57 · n=22 6.04-5.49 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 4.01-3.84 · n=30 4.31-4.09 · n=29 4.33-4.33 · n=28 4.62-4.62 · n=27 4.71-4.71 · n=26 4.51-4.51 · n=25 4.99-4.99 · n=24 5.03-5.03 · n=23 5.08-4.95 · n=22 4.83-4.38 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 1.46-0.21 · n=30 1.26-0.31 · n=29 1.90-0.43 · n=28 1.89-0.34 · n=27 2.20-0.78 · n=26 2.31-0.63 · n=25 2.28-0.57 · n=24 2.19-1.22 · n=23 2.34-1.83 · n=22 4.44-2.57 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 3.58-3.55 · n=30 3.72-3.45 · n=29 3.68-3.57 · n=28 3.77-3.50 · n=27 3.92-3.25 · n=26 4.54-3.32 · n=25 4.53-3.83 · n=24 5.02-4.69 · n=23 6.86-5.49 · n=22 7.16-5.28 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 3.20-3.17 · n=30 3.29-3.29 · n=29 3.58-3.56 · n=28 3.66-3.20 · n=27 3.19-2.87 · n=26 3.47-2.99 · n=25 4.24-3.50 · n=24 4.66-4.45 · n=23 5.53-4.54 · n=22 5.28-4.26 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 2.32-2.27 · n=30 2.41-2.28 · n=29 2.75-2.18 · n=28 2.44-2.06 · n=27 2.90-2.72 · n=26 2.95-2.47 · n=25 3.25-2.88 · n=24 3.55-3.14 · n=23 4.65-4.04 · n=22 4.96-4.24 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 3.09-2.84 · n=30 3.15-2.90 · n=29 3.49-3.27 · n=28 3.63-3.40 · n=27 3.81-3.61 · n=26 4.14-3.54 · n=25 4.92-4.35 · n=24 5.51-5.14 · n=23 6.91-6.38 · n=22 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 3.97-3.97 · n=30 3.81-3.81 · n=29 3.60-3.60 · n=28 3.54-3.47 · n=27 3.48-3.48 · n=26 3.48-3.38 · n=25 3.40-3.20 · n=24 3.35-3.09 · n=23 3.58-3.36 · n=22 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 3.19-3.19 · n=30 3.12-3.12 · n=29 3.10-3.10 · n=28 3.03-3.03 · n=27 2.82-2.82 · n=26 2.77-2.76 · n=25 2.65-2.65 · n=24 2.78-2.77 · n=23 2.73-2.73 · n=22 3.14-2.87 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 5.66-5.66 · n=30 5.32-5.32 · n=29 5.40-5.40 · n=28 5.15-5.15 · n=27 4.75-4.75 · n=26 5.55-5.16 · n=25 5.48-4.86 · n=24 5.78-5.32 · n=23 6.39-6.25 · n=22 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 4.58-4.49 · n=30 4.65-4.42 · n=29 4.58-4.29 · n=28 4.42-4.17 · n=27 4.69-4.44 · n=26 4.52-4.22 · n=25 4.86-4.64 · n=24 5.34-4.54 · n=23 5.35-4.31 · n=22 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 1.83+0.70 · n=30 1.75+0.67 · n=29 2.34+0.54 · n=28 1.63+0.80 · n=27 1.76+0.05 · n=26 1.68+0.41 · n=25 1.92+0.13 · n=24 1.59-0.32 · n=23 2.19-1.05 · n=22 3.91-1.70 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.34-0.40 · n=30 1.48-0.27 · n=29 1.88-0.37 · n=28 1.70-0.46 · n=27 1.79-0.25 · n=26 1.94-0.14 · n=25 1.71-0.01 · n=24 1.93-0.04 · n=23 1.99-0.04 · n=22 2.16-0.08 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 2.60+2.45 · n=30 2.94+2.74 · n=29 2.95+2.70 · n=28 2.97+2.71 · n=27 3.14+3.04 · n=26 3.26+3.23 · n=25 3.52+3.43 · n=24 3.42+3.36 · n=23 3.54+3.46 · n=22 3.27+3.23 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 1.30-0.07 · n=29 1.22-0.03 · n=28 1.35+0.03 · n=27 1.59+0.00 · n=26 1.70-0.12 · n=25 1.86-0.09 · n=24 1.88-0.19 · n=23 2.35-0.26 · n=22 2.23-0.66 · n=21 3.11-0.51 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 1.36+0.33 · n=30 1.66+0.55 · n=29 1.89+0.47 · n=28 2.00+0.45 · n=27 2.53+0.43 · n=26 2.86+0.42 · n=25 3.03+0.48 · n=24 2.54+0.58 · n=23 2.73+0.30 · n=22 4.09+0.79 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 2.49+1.45 · n=30 3.02+2.01 · n=29 3.01+2.18 · n=28 3.09+2.30 · n=27 2.95+2.24 · n=26 2.64+1.70 · n=25 2.82+1.70 · n=24 3.21+0.86 · n=23 3.42+0.90 · n=22 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 1.68-1.42 · n=30 1.61-1.33 · n=29 1.63-1.33 · n=28 1.76-1.46 · n=27 1.85-1.53 · n=26 2.07-1.54 · n=25 2.17-1.60 · n=24 2.06-1.48 · n=23 2.06-1.59 · n=22 2.16-1.48 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 1.68+1.26 · n=30 2.09+1.39 · n=29 2.38+1.82 · n=28 2.64+1.89 · n=27 2.54+1.50 · n=26 2.89+1.44 · n=25 2.76+1.50 · n=24 2.55+1.73 · n=23 2.93+1.20 · n=22 3.96+1.19 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 1.66-0.60 · n=30 1.60-0.32 · n=29 1.58-0.25 · n=28 1.55-0.05 · n=27 1.67-0.06 · n=26 1.69+0.02 · n=25 1.95+0.14 · n=24 2.07+0.29 · n=23 2.45+0.23 · n=22 2.61+0.12 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 4.99-4.92 · n=30 5.34-5.29 · n=29 5.29-5.01 · n=28 5.11-4.94 · n=27 5.21-4.70 · n=26 5.36-4.85 · n=25 5.31-5.10 · n=24 6.17-6.13 · n=23 6.71-6.37 · n=22 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 0.50-0.01 · n=30 0.60-0.01 · n=29 0.62+0.01 · n=28 0.68+0.07 · n=27 0.65+0.08 · n=26 0.58+0.04 · n=25 0.79-0.01 · n=24 0.93-0.18 · n=23 1.19-0.35 · n=22 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 2.10+1.89 · n=30 1.89+1.60 · n=29 1.98+1.64 · n=28 1.92+1.63 · n=27 1.87+1.57 · n=26 2.01+1.61 · n=25 2.11+1.50 · n=24 2.13+1.65 · n=23 2.13+1.77 · n=22 2.40+1.98 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 2.52-2.07 · n=30 2.64-2.27 · n=29 2.71-2.22 · n=28 2.85-2.00 · n=27 2.83-1.99 · n=26 2.72-1.87 · n=25 3.66-2.08 · n=24 4.34-2.35 · n=23 4.69-2.76 · n=22 5.58-1.33 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 2.77+2.61 · n=30 3.07+2.89 · n=29 3.26+2.94 · n=28 3.30+3.04 · n=27 3.40+3.13 · n=26 3.49+3.31 · n=25 3.50+3.33 · n=24 3.53+3.38 · n=23 3.56+3.05 · n=22 3.56+3.25 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 2.28+1.99 · n=30 2.47+2.20 · n=29 2.87+2.67 · n=28 2.76+2.70 · n=27 2.76+2.46 · n=26 2.68+2.49 · n=25 3.13+2.55 · n=24 2.74+2.66 · n=23 2.62+2.24 · n=22 3.33+2.21 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 2.87+2.55 · n=30 3.10+2.79 · n=29 3.40+2.98 · n=28 3.21+2.71 · n=27 3.25+2.82 · n=26 3.45+3.00 · n=25 3.82+2.91 · n=24 3.19+2.68 · n=23 3.31+2.44 · n=22 4.64+2.06 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 1.55+0.69 · n=30 1.71+0.51 · n=29 1.59+0.10 · n=28 1.61+0.17 · n=27 1.94+0.53 · n=26 2.24+0.62 · n=25 1.93+0.32 · n=24 2.55-0.28 · n=23 2.83-0.27 · n=22 3.62-0.35 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 1.57-0.35 · n=30 1.60+0.01 · n=29 1.96+0.25 · n=28 2.17+0.33 · n=27 2.70+0.05 · n=26 2.78-0.13 · n=25 3.05-0.07 · n=24 2.56+0.49 · n=23 2.81-0.28 · n=22 3.83-0.05 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 3.73-2.29 · n=30 3.54-1.97 · n=29 3.46-1.99 · n=28 3.65-1.85 · n=27 4.00-2.18 · n=26 4.01-2.02 · n=25 4.29-2.30 · n=24 4.36-2.58 · n=23 4.69-2.93 · n=22 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 1.34-1.18 · n=30 1.52-1.31 · n=29 1.44-1.06 · n=28 1.23-0.79 · n=27 1.09-0.72 · n=26 0.82-0.66 · n=25 0.85-0.51 · n=24 0.80-0.48 · n=23 1.14-0.47 · n=22 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 1.49-0.90 · n=30 1.51-0.77 · n=29 1.64-0.82 · n=28 1.61-0.81 · n=27 1.52-0.59 · n=26 1.55-0.51 · n=25 1.54-0.40 · n=24 1.53-0.41 · n=23 1.61-0.08 · n=22 1.70-0.26 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 2.37-2.24 · n=30 1.68-1.22 · n=29 1.40-0.82 · n=28 1.26-0.55 · n=27 1.11-0.21 · n=26 1.19+0.33 · n=25 1.43+0.34 · n=24 1.86+0.79 · n=23 2.04+0.41 · n=22 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 0.87-0.43 · n=30 0.94-0.45 · n=29 1.05-0.50 · n=28 1.18-0.62 · n=27 1.30-0.72 · n=26 1.36-0.60 · n=25 1.55-0.57 · n=24 1.74-0.42 · n=23 1.65-0.17 · n=22 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 3.66+3.66 · n=30 4.00+4.00 · n=29 4.43+4.43 · n=28 4.54+4.49 · n=27 4.15+4.11 · n=26 4.21+3.92 · n=25 4.12+3.86 · n=24 4.46+4.40 · n=23 4.09+3.73 · n=22 4.31+3.89 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

ecmwf · aifs-single

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0, © ECMWF.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences