Model
ECMWF AIFS Single
aifs_single
source ecmwf · product aifs-single · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.58−1.97 · n=29 | 2.59−1.90 · n=29 | 2.54−1.75 · n=29 | 2.76−1.73 · n=29 | 3.08−1.78 · n=29 | 3.09−1.45 · n=29 | 3.40−0.80 · n=29 | 4.59−1.09 · n=29 | 5.03−1.08 · n=29 | 5.49−0.19 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | 1.99+0.28 · n=29 | 2.23+0.25 · n=29 | 2.25+0.20 · n=29 | 2.37+0.19 · n=29 | 2.85+0.45 · n=29 | 3.07+0.51 · n=29 | 3.60+0.35 · n=29 | 5.30−0.52 · n=29 | 5.49+0.26 · n=29 | 6.06+1.06 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | 2.35−2.05 · n=28 | 2.26−1.86 · n=28 | 2.29−1.74 · n=28 | 2.43−1.64 · n=28 | 2.56−1.42 · n=28 | 3.25−1.25 · n=28 | 3.90−1.08 · n=28 | 4.56−1.89 · n=28 | 4.81−1.28 · n=28 | 5.42−0.81 · n=28 | |
| KDCA | 2.60−1.91 · n=29 | 2.60−1.67 · n=29 | 2.56−1.59 · n=29 | 2.74−1.50 · n=29 | 3.16−1.20 · n=29 | 3.62−1.23 · n=29 | 4.42−1.26 · n=29 | 4.96−2.27 · n=29 | 5.54−1.69 · n=29 | 5.51−0.92 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | 2.32−0.08 · n=29 | 2.40−0.20 · n=29 | 2.51−0.41 · n=29 | 2.86−0.84 · n=29 | 3.19−1.36 · n=29 | 4.74−1.38 · n=29 | 4.76−1.50 · n=29 | 6.40−0.95 · n=29 | 8.40−3.59 · n=29 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.07−1.36 · n=29 | 2.26−1.57 · n=29 | 2.51−1.73 · n=29 | 2.77−1.79 · n=29 | 3.17−1.72 · n=29 | 3.20−1.63 · n=29 | 3.69−2.24 · n=29 | 5.26−3.05 · n=29 | 5.94−2.41 · n=29 | 5.95−1.89 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | 2.13−1.54 · n=29 | 2.32−1.69 · n=29 | 2.41−1.49 · n=29 | 2.59−1.62 · n=29 | 2.88−1.46 · n=29 | 3.03−1.43 · n=29 | 3.82−1.35 · n=29 | 4.57−2.37 · n=29 | 5.18−1.72 · n=29 | 5.39−1.20 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | 1.43−0.09 · n=29 | 1.54−0.10 · n=29 | 1.74−0.19 · n=29 | 2.01−0.39 · n=29 | 2.41−0.34 · n=29 | 2.58−0.26 · n=29 | 3.06−0.23 · n=29 | 3.99−0.66 · n=29 | 3.91−0.65 · n=29 | 5.05+0.29 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | 3.29−3.14 · n=29 | 3.44−3.16 · n=29 | 3.38−3.06 · n=29 | 3.42−2.95 · n=29 | 3.86−3.16 · n=29 | 4.08−3.04 · n=29 | 5.19−3.29 · n=29 | 5.57−3.46 · n=29 | 5.99−4.15 · n=29 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.35−0.84 · n=29 | 2.40−0.83 · n=29 | 2.42−0.93 · n=29 | 2.57−1.00 · n=29 | 2.88−1.30 · n=29 | 3.36−1.22 · n=29 | 3.69−1.05 · n=29 | 4.14−1.05 · n=29 | 5.21−1.35 · n=29 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.29−0.48 · n=29 | 1.54−0.84 · n=29 | 1.66−0.95 · n=29 | 1.78−1.08 · n=29 | 1.96−1.13 · n=29 | 2.09−1.19 · n=29 | 2.14−1.00 · n=29 | 2.18−0.75 · n=29 | 2.38−0.83 · n=29 | 2.39−0.57 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | 2.34−1.13 · n=29 | 2.39−1.36 · n=29 | 2.62−1.34 · n=29 | 2.92−1.37 · n=29 | 2.90−1.87 · n=29 | 3.69−2.28 · n=29 | 4.62−2.57 · n=29 | 5.44−3.10 · n=29 | 5.93−2.01 · n=29 | 8.06−3.68 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | 1.96−1.01 · n=29 | 2.09−1.09 · n=29 | 2.23−1.18 · n=29 | 2.19−1.06 · n=29 | 2.28−0.90 · n=29 | 2.58−0.50 · n=29 | 3.03+0.12 · n=29 | 3.84+0.01 · n=29 | 4.06+0.02 · n=29 | 4.57+0.93 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | 2.19−0.28 · n=28 | 2.32−0.46 · n=28 | 2.46−0.26 · n=28 | 2.45−0.33 · n=28 | 2.91−0.26 · n=28 | 3.04−0.24 · n=28 | 3.72−0.21 · n=28 | 4.28−1.24 · n=28 | 4.50−0.33 · n=28 | 4.93+0.10 · n=28 | |
| KOKC | 2.32+1.63 · n=29 | 2.34+1.40 · n=29 | 2.25+1.28 · n=29 | 2.35+1.32 · n=29 | 2.53+1.12 · n=29 | 2.69+1.03 · n=29 | 3.95+0.19 · n=29 | 4.82−0.21 · n=29 | 5.34+0.37 · n=29 | 6.80−0.56 · n=29 | |
| KORD | 1.96−1.45 · n=29 | 2.14−1.48 · n=29 | 2.39−1.61 · n=29 | 2.71−1.66 · n=29 | 2.75−1.52 · n=29 | 3.09−1.30 · n=29 | 4.10−1.77 · n=29 | 5.04−2.11 · n=29 | 6.24−2.10 · n=29 | 5.71−1.57 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | 3.02−2.35 · n=29 | 3.10−2.29 · n=29 | 3.02−2.16 · n=29 | 3.19−2.23 · n=29 | 3.49−1.96 · n=29 | 3.70−2.05 · n=29 | 4.67−1.94 · n=29 | 5.20−3.02 · n=29 | 5.84−2.37 · n=29 | 5.72−1.79 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | 3.14−2.20 · n=29 | 3.31−2.22 · n=29 | 3.29−2.27 · n=29 | 3.29−2.24 · n=29 | 3.48−2.27 · n=29 | 4.20−2.37 · n=29 | 4.44−1.87 · n=29 | 5.10−2.06 · n=29 | 5.34−2.46 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAN | 1.98−1.19 · n=29 | 2.10−1.26 · n=29 | 2.14−1.32 · n=29 | 2.33−1.41 · n=29 | 2.82−1.70 · n=29 | 3.21−1.64 · n=29 | 3.54−1.58 · n=29 | 4.05−1.57 · n=29 | 4.90−1.68 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.40−0.25 · n=29 | 1.45−0.27 · n=29 | 1.56−0.37 · n=29 | 1.67−0.39 · n=29 | 2.11−0.22 · n=29 | 2.39−0.13 · n=29 | 3.00−0.26 · n=29 | 4.15−1.09 · n=29 | 4.56−0.42 · n=29 | 5.06+0.39 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | 2.48−2.10 · n=29 | 2.41−1.77 · n=29 | 2.30−1.59 · n=29 | 2.40−1.54 · n=29 | 2.41−1.08 · n=29 | 2.61−1.20 · n=29 | 2.92−1.61 · n=29 | 3.33−2.26 · n=29 | 3.56−2.07 · n=29 | — | |
| KSFO | 2.18−0.84 · n=29 | 2.30−0.72 · n=29 | 2.45−0.80 · n=29 | 2.41−1.05 · n=29 | 2.49−1.20 · n=29 | 3.04−1.56 · n=29 | 2.95−1.40 · n=29 | 3.48−1.60 · n=29 | 4.15−1.04 · n=29 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.72+0.86 · n=29 | 1.79+0.93 · n=29 | 2.08+1.15 · n=29 | 2.18+1.02 · n=29 | 2.64+1.24 · n=29 | 3.00+1.18 · n=29 | 3.91+1.23 · n=29 | 4.45+0.13 · n=29 | 5.24+0.77 · n=29 | 5.68+1.29 · n=29 |
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 0.87+0.39 · n=29 | 1.25+0.46 · n=29 | 1.42+0.71 · n=29 | 1.69+0.82 · n=29 | 2.05+1.12 · n=29 | 1.87+1.12 · n=29 | 3.06+1.22 · n=29 | 4.52+0.02 · n=29 | 4.88−0.06 · n=29 | 5.93+0.39 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | 1.19−0.43 · n=29 | 1.55−0.81 · n=29 | 1.54−0.87 · n=29 | 1.80−0.95 · n=29 | 2.50−0.70 · n=29 | 2.50−0.88 · n=29 | 2.97−1.28 · n=29 | 4.65−2.80 · n=29 | 4.55−1.69 · n=29 | 5.37−1.02 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | 1.67−1.07 · n=28 | 1.77−0.96 · n=28 | 1.64−0.89 · n=28 | 1.98−0.74 · n=28 | 2.32−0.94 · n=28 | 3.68−0.29 · n=28 | 4.04−0.11 · n=28 | 4.06−0.72 · n=28 | 5.54−0.73 · n=28 | 5.92−0.25 · n=28 | |
| KDCA | 1.47+0.78 · n=29 | 1.58+0.87 · n=29 | 1.75+0.84 · n=29 | 2.16+0.58 · n=29 | 2.78+1.05 · n=29 | 3.07+0.90 · n=29 | 3.76+0.71 · n=29 | 4.96−1.09 · n=29 | 5.95−0.29 · n=29 | 5.83+0.25 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | 1.74+0.52 · n=29 | 1.95+0.35 · n=29 | 2.40−0.10 · n=29 | 2.62−0.69 · n=29 | 2.97−1.30 · n=29 | 5.13−1.24 · n=29 | 4.28−0.78 · n=29 | 6.80−0.02 · n=29 | 9.13−3.42 · n=29 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.19−0.27 · n=29 | 1.52−0.71 · n=29 | 1.74−0.93 · n=29 | 2.01−0.92 · n=29 | 2.61−0.94 · n=29 | 2.34−0.90 · n=29 | 2.98−1.66 · n=29 | 4.92−3.50 · n=29 | 5.23−2.64 · n=29 | 5.71−2.27 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | 1.16−0.39 · n=29 | 1.48−0.60 · n=29 | 1.58−0.52 · n=29 | 1.76−0.80 · n=29 | 2.33−0.70 · n=29 | 2.46−0.64 · n=29 | 3.29−0.58 · n=29 | 4.17−1.67 · n=29 | 5.72−1.42 · n=29 | 5.01−1.30 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | 1.53+0.25 · n=29 | 1.79+0.12 · n=29 | 1.90+0.16 · n=29 | 2.12+0.02 · n=29 | 2.14+0.24 · n=29 | 2.16−0.04 · n=29 | 2.69−0.42 · n=29 | 3.92−1.85 · n=29 | 3.86−1.43 · n=29 | 5.01−1.10 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | 2.12−2.07 · n=29 | 2.54−2.07 · n=29 | 2.63−1.96 · n=29 | 2.50−1.94 · n=29 | 3.24−2.26 · n=29 | 3.34−1.87 · n=29 | 5.22−2.20 · n=29 | 5.42−2.12 · n=29 | 5.35−2.94 · n=29 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.28−0.85 · n=29 | 2.34−0.84 · n=29 | 2.42−1.02 · n=29 | 2.53−0.98 · n=29 | 3.54−1.68 · n=29 | 4.05−1.54 · n=29 | 4.12−1.41 · n=29 | 4.56−1.31 · n=29 | 6.09−1.67 · n=29 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.47−0.62 · n=29 | 1.81−0.89 · n=29 | 2.05−0.91 · n=29 | 2.05−1.07 · n=29 | 2.18−1.07 · n=29 | 2.53−1.22 · n=29 | 2.38−1.05 · n=29 | 2.47−0.68 · n=29 | 2.68−0.87 · n=29 | 2.57−0.36 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | 1.63+0.81 · n=29 | 1.50+0.41 · n=29 | 1.58+0.47 · n=29 | 1.84+0.26 · n=29 | 2.26−0.49 · n=29 | 2.81−0.89 · n=29 | 4.01−1.53 · n=29 | 4.29−1.50 · n=29 | 5.64−0.70 · n=29 | 8.33−2.59 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | 1.74−1.17 · n=29 | 1.93−1.46 · n=29 | 2.30−1.56 · n=29 | 2.16−1.48 · n=29 | 2.16−1.57 · n=29 | 2.30−1.00 · n=29 | 2.86−0.82 · n=29 | 3.13−1.51 · n=29 | 3.36−1.47 · n=29 | 4.07−1.11 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | 2.67+2.62 · n=28 | 2.40+2.40 · n=28 | 2.49+2.49 · n=28 | 2.50+2.30 · n=28 | 3.22+2.29 · n=28 | 3.44+2.29 · n=28 | 3.41+2.21 · n=28 | 3.77+1.21 · n=28 | 5.00+1.77 · n=28 | 5.07+1.86 · n=28 | |
| KOKC | 1.84+1.26 · n=29 | 1.76+1.03 · n=29 | 1.63+0.91 · n=29 | 1.71+0.79 · n=29 | 1.75+0.51 · n=29 | 2.28+0.37 · n=29 | 3.22−0.74 · n=29 | 4.84−1.72 · n=29 | 5.17−1.35 · n=29 | 6.73−2.51 · n=29 | |
| KORD | 1.02+0.07 · n=29 | 1.34−0.15 · n=29 | 1.53−0.48 · n=29 | 1.94−0.70 · n=29 | 1.91−0.34 · n=29 | 2.61−0.14 · n=29 | 3.66−1.08 · n=29 | 4.67−1.78 · n=29 | 4.75−1.91 · n=29 | 5.30−1.77 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | 1.70+0.39 · n=29 | 1.78+0.45 · n=29 | 1.55+0.23 · n=29 | 2.08+0.01 · n=29 | 2.52+0.21 · n=29 | 3.05+0.04 · n=29 | 3.99+0.47 · n=29 | 4.58−0.84 · n=29 | 5.56−0.68 · n=29 | 5.04−0.54 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | 1.88−0.51 · n=29 | 2.25−0.82 · n=29 | 2.20−0.83 · n=29 | 2.05−0.82 · n=29 | 2.63−0.73 · n=29 | 3.66−1.10 · n=29 | 3.55+0.18 · n=29 | 4.41−0.00 · n=29 | 5.13−0.83 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.87−2.81 · n=29 | 3.04−2.96 · n=29 | 3.09−3.00 · n=29 | 3.27−3.03 · n=29 | 3.96−3.49 · n=29 | 4.32−3.49 · n=29 | 4.62−3.59 · n=29 | 4.92−3.52 · n=29 | 6.15−3.61 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.02+0.14 · n=29 | 0.90−0.24 · n=29 | 1.15−0.37 · n=29 | 1.46−0.48 · n=29 | 1.96−0.30 · n=29 | 2.13−0.46 · n=29 | 2.67−0.78 · n=29 | 4.07−2.14 · n=29 | 3.80−1.04 · n=29 | 4.25−0.21 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | 1.86−1.63 · n=29 | 1.74−1.30 · n=29 | 1.61−1.20 · n=29 | 2.15−1.52 · n=29 | 2.24−1.22 · n=29 | 2.48−1.59 · n=29 | 2.87−2.03 · n=29 | 3.38−2.82 · n=29 | 3.51−1.85 · n=29 | — | |
| KSFO | 2.65−1.32 · n=29 | 2.69−1.24 · n=29 | 2.92−1.41 · n=29 | 3.00−1.77 · n=29 | 3.31−2.03 · n=29 | 4.00−2.69 · n=29 | 3.65−2.19 · n=29 | 4.59−2.37 · n=29 | 5.14−1.47 · n=29 | — | |
| KTTN | 2.11+2.11 · n=29 | 2.05+2.04 · n=29 | 2.10+2.04 · n=29 | 2.37+1.78 · n=29 | 2.64+1.89 · n=29 | 3.19+1.83 · n=29 | 3.99+2.06 · n=29 | 4.67+0.87 · n=29 | 5.87+0.83 · n=29 | 5.36+0.86 · n=29 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.43−3.04 · n=29 | 3.23−3.00 · n=29 | 3.05−2.84 · n=29 | 3.31−2.94 · n=29 | 3.55−3.17 · n=29 | 3.74−2.61 · n=29 | 3.64−1.67 · n=29 | 4.86−1.11 · n=29 | 5.37−1.52 · n=29 | 5.77+0.18 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | 2.07+1.60 · n=29 | 2.35+1.88 · n=29 | 2.36+1.79 · n=29 | 2.34+1.83 · n=29 | 2.75+2.19 · n=29 | 3.29+2.56 · n=29 | 3.93+3.15 · n=29 | 5.69+2.57 · n=29 | 5.52+2.87 · n=29 | 6.95+3.80 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | 2.38−2.23 · n=28 | 2.04−1.88 · n=28 | 2.12−1.54 · n=28 | 2.28−1.48 · n=28 | 2.46−1.06 · n=28 | 2.40−1.19 · n=28 | 3.32−1.18 · n=28 | 4.38−1.75 · n=28 | 4.36−0.85 · n=28 | 4.84−0.43 · n=28 | |
| KDCA | 2.69−2.68 · n=29 | 2.69−2.51 · n=29 | 2.68−2.38 · n=29 | 2.50−2.14 · n=29 | 2.92−1.94 · n=29 | 3.79−1.84 · n=29 | 4.60−1.78 · n=29 | 5.09−2.42 · n=29 | 5.10−1.87 · n=29 | 5.26−1.25 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | 2.64−1.58 · n=29 | 2.55−1.50 · n=29 | 2.37−1.47 · n=29 | 2.80−1.70 · n=29 | 3.35−2.03 · n=29 | 3.77−1.76 · n=29 | 4.64−2.99 · n=29 | 5.16−2.87 · n=29 | 6.37−3.76 · n=29 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.61−2.40 · n=29 | 2.61−2.39 · n=29 | 2.76−2.59 · n=29 | 2.98−2.77 · n=29 | 3.14−2.45 · n=29 | 3.21−2.14 · n=29 | 3.75−2.48 · n=29 | 5.31−2.03 · n=29 | 5.84−1.77 · n=29 | 6.49−1.30 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | 1.39−0.86 · n=29 | 1.57−1.12 · n=29 | 1.73−0.89 · n=29 | 1.80−0.91 · n=29 | 1.90−0.74 · n=29 | 2.38−0.43 · n=29 | 3.62−0.66 · n=29 | 4.38−1.70 · n=29 | 4.30−0.55 · n=29 | 5.27−0.27 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | 0.94−0.39 · n=29 | 1.01−0.41 · n=29 | 1.34−0.58 · n=29 | 1.67−0.86 · n=29 | 2.37−0.92 · n=29 | 2.64−0.45 · n=29 | 3.61+0.31 · n=29 | 4.81+0.37 · n=29 | 4.28−0.13 · n=29 | 5.95+1.73 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | 4.39−4.39 · n=29 | 4.40−4.40 · n=29 | 4.26−4.26 · n=29 | 4.12−4.12 · n=29 | 4.01−4.01 · n=29 | 4.48−4.17 · n=29 | 5.08−4.37 · n=29 | 5.41−4.58 · n=29 | 5.98−5.25 · n=29 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.88−1.10 · n=29 | 1.77−0.96 · n=29 | 1.67−0.99 · n=29 | 1.86−1.09 · n=29 | 1.91−1.07 · n=29 | 2.72−1.04 · n=29 | 2.75−0.85 · n=29 | 2.96−0.90 · n=29 | 3.55−1.14 · n=29 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.02−0.00 · n=29 | 1.26−0.44 · n=29 | 1.21−0.55 · n=29 | 1.34−0.66 · n=29 | 1.44−0.65 · n=29 | 1.41−0.77 · n=29 | 1.70−0.53 · n=29 | 1.86−0.40 · n=29 | 2.14−0.39 · n=29 | 2.21−0.24 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | 2.36−2.27 · n=29 | 2.56−2.39 · n=29 | 2.70−2.39 · n=29 | 3.07−2.30 · n=29 | 2.90−2.41 · n=29 | 4.00−2.88 · n=29 | 4.89−3.08 · n=29 | 6.11−4.17 · n=29 | 5.37−2.48 · n=29 | 7.74−4.35 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | 2.15−0.72 · n=29 | 2.09−0.70 · n=29 | 2.24−0.82 · n=29 | 2.52−0.73 · n=29 | 2.44−0.46 · n=29 | 2.82−0.08 · n=29 | 3.42+1.05 · n=29 | 4.37+1.35 · n=29 | 4.74+1.34 · n=29 | 5.72+2.79 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | 1.78−1.04 · n=28 | 2.01−1.29 · n=28 | 2.11−1.01 · n=28 | 2.10−1.00 · n=28 | 2.49−0.99 · n=28 | 2.77−0.73 · n=28 | 3.88−0.92 · n=28 | 4.25−2.04 · n=28 | 4.06−0.58 · n=28 | 4.84−0.35 · n=28 | |
| KOKC | 2.08+0.87 · n=29 | 1.92+0.56 · n=29 | 2.11+0.55 · n=29 | 2.38+0.84 · n=29 | 2.67+0.75 · n=29 | 2.54+1.03 · n=29 | 3.58+0.64 · n=29 | 5.30+0.69 · n=29 | 5.71+1.31 · n=29 | 7.10+0.78 · n=29 | |
| KORD | 2.54−2.18 · n=29 | 2.44−2.00 · n=29 | 2.67−1.93 · n=29 | 2.93−1.77 · n=29 | 3.06−2.08 · n=29 | 3.33−1.50 · n=29 | 3.81−1.72 · n=29 | 5.61−2.11 · n=29 | 6.92−1.87 · n=29 | 5.62−0.60 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | 2.90−2.81 · n=29 | 2.99−2.91 · n=29 | 2.81−2.55 · n=29 | 2.84−2.56 · n=29 | 3.26−2.17 · n=29 | 3.66−2.07 · n=29 | 4.97−2.30 · n=29 | 5.25−3.41 · n=29 | 5.58−2.30 · n=29 | 5.91−1.84 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | 4.29−4.24 · n=29 | 4.09−3.88 · n=29 | 4.16−3.96 · n=29 | 4.07−3.78 · n=29 | 3.94−3.72 · n=29 | 4.29−3.68 · n=29 | 4.79−3.94 · n=29 | 5.46−4.46 · n=29 | 5.60−4.39 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAN | 1.74+0.24 · n=29 | 1.81+0.22 · n=29 | 1.77+0.26 · n=29 | 1.94+0.12 · n=29 | 1.90+0.04 · n=29 | 2.71+0.32 · n=29 | 2.86+0.47 · n=29 | 2.83+0.52 · n=29 | 3.33+0.49 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.19−0.34 · n=29 | 1.45−0.02 · n=29 | 1.52−0.15 · n=29 | 1.47−0.06 · n=29 | 1.69+0.33 · n=29 | 2.25+0.61 · n=29 | 3.05+1.12 · n=29 | 4.48+0.47 · n=29 | 4.88+0.77 · n=29 | 5.67+1.66 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | 2.80−2.79 · n=29 | 2.44−2.29 · n=29 | 2.33−2.13 · n=29 | 2.01−1.73 · n=29 | 1.94−1.23 · n=29 | 2.16−1.18 · n=29 | 2.35−0.99 · n=29 | 2.70−1.56 · n=29 | 3.80−2.33 · n=29 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.83−1.10 · n=29 | 1.94−0.78 · n=29 | 2.03−0.70 · n=29 | 1.98−0.71 · n=29 | 1.97−0.84 · n=29 | 2.16−0.86 · n=29 | 2.48−0.89 · n=29 | 2.60−1.17 · n=29 | 3.41−1.08 · n=29 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.59+1.17 · n=29 | 1.72+1.18 · n=29 | 2.28+1.52 · n=29 | 2.37+1.45 · n=29 | 2.70+1.81 · n=29 | 3.09+2.01 · n=29 | 4.07+1.65 · n=29 | 4.44+0.55 · n=29 | 4.85+1.75 · n=29 | 6.13+2.04 · n=29 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.30−2.30 · n=29 | 2.32−2.23 · n=29 | 2.24−1.98 · n=29 | 2.47−1.87 · n=29 | 2.77−1.57 · n=29 | 2.48−1.57 · n=29 | 3.42−1.47 · n=29 | 4.75−2.66 · n=29 | 5.53−2.74 · n=29 | 6.88−2.30 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | 4.93−4.85 · n=29 | 5.37−5.22 · n=29 | 5.40−5.28 · n=29 | 5.55−5.37 · n=29 | 6.18−5.12 · n=29 | 5.88−5.29 · n=29 | 6.28−5.69 · n=29 | 8.17−7.21 · n=29 | 7.86−6.10 · n=29 | 8.05−5.44 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | 2.85−2.64 · n=29 | 2.72−2.50 · n=29 | 2.66−2.47 · n=29 | 2.67−2.40 · n=29 | 3.40−2.81 · n=29 | 4.41−2.17 · n=29 | 4.81−1.83 · n=29 | 4.97−2.43 · n=29 | 6.12−1.96 · n=29 | 6.12−1.61 · n=29 | |
| KDCA | 1.45−1.04 · n=29 | 1.59−0.96 · n=29 | 1.82−0.98 · n=29 | 2.38−1.25 · n=29 | 2.79−0.78 · n=29 | 2.85−0.92 · n=29 | 3.75−1.11 · n=29 | 5.12−2.91 · n=29 | 6.63−2.12 · n=29 | 6.21−1.58 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | 4.51−4.51 · n=29 | 4.69−4.69 · n=29 | 5.20−5.14 · n=29 | 5.76−5.73 · n=29 | 6.48−6.34 · n=29 | 7.79−6.28 · n=29 | 7.26−5.82 · n=29 | 8.62−5.06 · n=29 | 11.76−8.46 · n=29 | — | |
| KDFW | 3.72−3.72 · n=29 | 4.20−4.16 · n=29 | 4.52−4.38 · n=29 | 4.65−4.37 · n=29 | 5.14−4.39 · n=29 | 4.93−4.35 · n=29 | 5.54−5.11 · n=29 | 7.62−6.95 · n=29 | 8.17−6.09 · n=29 | 7.85−5.72 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | 2.23−2.16 · n=29 | 2.60−2.37 · n=29 | 2.41−2.30 · n=29 | 2.74−2.57 · n=29 | 3.20−2.47 · n=29 | 3.40−2.41 · n=29 | 4.22−2.35 · n=29 | 4.72−3.44 · n=29 | 6.43−3.19 · n=29 | 5.45−3.07 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | 3.49−3.34 · n=29 | 3.85−3.46 · n=29 | 4.00−3.43 · n=29 | 4.10−3.56 · n=29 | 4.14−3.35 · n=29 | 4.10−3.63 · n=29 | 4.83−4.01 · n=29 | 6.24−5.43 · n=29 | 6.42−5.01 · n=29 | 6.99−4.69 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | 3.72−3.72 · n=29 | 3.79−3.71 · n=29 | 3.70−3.61 · n=29 | 3.63−3.58 · n=29 | 4.29−3.91 · n=29 | 4.08−3.51 · n=29 | 5.90−3.85 · n=29 | 5.83−3.76 · n=29 | 5.89−4.59 · n=29 | — | |
| KLAX | 4.07−3.61 · n=29 | 4.08−3.60 · n=29 | 4.31−3.78 · n=29 | 4.38−3.74 · n=29 | 5.22−4.44 · n=29 | 5.25−4.30 · n=29 | 5.58−4.17 · n=29 | 6.04−4.07 · n=29 | 7.24−4.43 · n=29 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.57−2.56 · n=29 | 2.88−2.83 · n=29 | 2.91−2.84 · n=29 | 3.03−3.00 · n=29 | 3.13−3.00 · n=29 | 3.29−3.15 · n=29 | 3.35−2.99 · n=29 | 2.87−2.62 · n=29 | 3.20−2.81 · n=29 | 2.83−2.29 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | 2.63−2.50 · n=29 | 3.05−2.90 · n=29 | 2.85−2.84 · n=29 | 3.19−3.06 · n=29 | 4.00−3.80 · n=29 | 4.64−4.21 · n=29 | 5.87−4.84 · n=29 | 6.00−4.81 · n=29 | 7.14−4.01 · n=29 | 9.95−5.91 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | 3.56−3.48 · n=29 | 3.77−3.77 · n=29 | 3.87−3.87 · n=29 | 3.79−3.79 · n=29 | 3.88−3.88 · n=29 | 3.57−3.31 · n=29 | 3.71−3.13 · n=29 | 4.26−3.82 · n=29 | 4.15−3.78 · n=29 | 4.74−3.42 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | 1.24+0.44 · n=29 | 1.27+0.20 · n=29 | 0.99+0.26 · n=29 | 1.53+0.01 · n=29 | 2.30+0.11 · n=29 | 2.58+0.16 · n=29 | 3.31+0.22 · n=29 | 3.58−0.83 · n=29 | 5.27−0.57 · n=29 | 4.55−0.41 · n=29 | |
| KOKC | 2.29−1.91 · n=29 | 2.58−2.14 · n=29 | 2.81−2.26 · n=29 | 3.13−2.38 · n=29 | 3.23−2.67 · n=29 | 3.58−2.80 · n=29 | 4.69−3.92 · n=29 | 6.94−4.90 · n=29 | 7.36−4.52 · n=29 | 8.31−5.68 · n=29 | |
| KORD | 2.26−2.20 · n=29 | 2.57−2.42 · n=29 | 2.82−2.75 · n=29 | 3.26−2.97 · n=29 | 3.05−2.61 · n=29 | 3.02−2.40 · n=29 | 4.35−3.35 · n=29 | 5.40−4.05 · n=29 | 6.14−4.18 · n=29 | 6.28−4.04 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | 1.86−1.51 · n=29 | 1.85−1.45 · n=29 | 1.71−1.67 · n=29 | 2.38−1.89 · n=29 | 2.78−1.69 · n=29 | 2.86−1.86 · n=29 | 3.77−1.43 · n=29 | 5.01−2.74 · n=29 | 6.49−2.58 · n=29 | 5.34−2.44 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | 3.32−3.17 · n=29 | 3.69−3.48 · n=29 | 3.63−3.49 · n=29 | 3.68−3.48 · n=29 | 4.02−3.39 · n=29 | 4.58−3.76 · n=29 | 4.37−2.48 · n=29 | 4.92−2.66 · n=29 | 5.53−3.49 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAN | 5.22−5.22 · n=29 | 5.37−5.37 · n=29 | 5.42−5.42 · n=29 | 5.45−5.45 · n=29 | 5.91−5.91 · n=29 | 6.12−5.90 · n=29 | 6.52−6.00 · n=29 | 6.70−5.93 · n=29 | 7.66−6.03 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAT | 3.47−3.46 · n=29 | 3.84−3.84 · n=29 | 3.97−3.97 · n=29 | 4.16−4.08 · n=29 | 4.60−3.91 · n=29 | 4.44−4.06 · n=29 | 5.01−4.38 · n=29 | 6.27−5.74 · n=29 | 6.07−4.65 · n=29 | 6.26−3.81 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | 3.18−3.10 · n=29 | 2.97−2.77 · n=29 | 2.82−2.67 · n=29 | 3.11−2.99 · n=29 | 3.18−2.69 · n=29 | 3.44−3.06 · n=29 | 3.93−3.50 · n=29 | 4.52−4.29 · n=29 | 4.14−3.32 · n=29 | — | |
| KSFO | 5.06−5.06 · n=29 | 4.98−4.98 · n=29 | 5.15−5.15 · n=29 | 5.51−5.51 · n=29 | 5.80−5.77 · n=29 | 6.48−6.43 · n=29 | 6.04−5.93 · n=29 | 6.60−6.11 · n=29 | 6.39−5.21 · n=29 | — | |
| KTTN | 0.98+0.17 · n=29 | 1.22+0.11 · n=29 | 1.04+0.11 · n=29 | 1.70−0.16 · n=29 | 2.45−0.04 · n=29 | 2.68−0.10 · n=29 | 3.72+0.13 · n=29 | 4.43−1.06 · n=29 | 5.92−1.11 · n=29 | 5.21−1.07 · n=29 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.03−1.54 · n=29 | 2.96−1.49 · n=29 | 2.65−1.34 · n=29 | 2.78−1.43 · n=29 | 3.03−1.66 · n=29 | 3.15−1.11 · n=29 | 3.78−0.17 · n=29 | 4.97+0.39 · n=29 | 5.29−0.01 · n=29 | 5.27+1.68 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | 3.47+3.31 · n=29 | 3.71+3.60 · n=29 | 3.65+3.50 · n=29 | 3.66+3.55 · n=29 | 4.00+3.90 · n=29 | 4.45+4.28 · n=29 | 5.29+4.86 · n=29 | 6.54+4.29 · n=29 | 6.61+4.58 · n=29 | 8.13+5.51 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | 1.31−0.15 · n=29 | 1.21+0.20 · n=29 | 1.48+0.53 · n=29 | 1.62+0.58 · n=29 | 2.07+1.01 · n=29 | 2.09+0.92 · n=29 | 2.87+0.91 · n=29 | 3.57+0.33 · n=29 | 4.20+1.27 · n=29 | 4.90+1.69 · n=29 | |
| KDCA | 1.62−1.03 · n=29 | 1.80−0.86 · n=29 | 2.01−0.73 · n=29 | 1.90−0.49 · n=29 | 2.52−0.29 · n=29 | 3.15−0.19 · n=29 | 4.14−0.14 · n=29 | 4.82−0.78 · n=29 | 4.88−0.22 · n=29 | 5.01+0.40 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | 2.30+0.43 · n=29 | 2.32+0.51 · n=29 | 2.16+0.54 · n=29 | 2.36+0.31 · n=29 | 2.75−0.02 · n=29 | 3.65+0.25 · n=29 | 3.87−0.98 · n=29 | 4.12−0.85 · n=29 | 5.33−1.75 · n=29 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.30−0.53 · n=29 | 2.30−0.52 · n=29 | 2.46−0.72 · n=29 | 2.60−0.90 · n=29 | 3.06−0.59 · n=29 | 3.24−0.27 · n=29 | 3.70−0.61 · n=29 | 5.35−0.16 · n=29 | 5.27+0.10 · n=29 | 6.56+0.57 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | 1.94+1.51 · n=29 | 1.66+1.25 · n=29 | 1.76+1.48 · n=29 | 1.94+1.46 · n=29 | 2.21+1.63 · n=29 | 2.41+1.94 · n=29 | 3.43+1.71 · n=29 | 4.38+0.67 · n=29 | 4.35+1.82 · n=29 | 5.60+2.10 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | 1.99+1.59 · n=29 | 1.94+1.57 · n=29 | 2.11+1.40 · n=29 | 2.48+1.12 · n=29 | 3.05+1.06 · n=29 | 3.59+1.53 · n=29 | 4.35+2.29 · n=29 | 4.74+2.35 · n=29 | 4.87+1.85 · n=29 | 6.67+3.70 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | 2.95−2.81 · n=29 | 3.10−2.82 · n=29 | 2.98−2.68 · n=29 | 2.90−2.53 · n=29 | 2.83−2.42 · n=29 | 3.35−2.58 · n=29 | 3.77−2.79 · n=29 | 4.55−2.99 · n=29 | 5.21−3.67 · n=29 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.45+0.64 · n=29 | 1.45+0.77 · n=29 | 1.44+0.75 · n=29 | 1.54+0.64 · n=29 | 1.67+0.67 · n=29 | 2.62+0.69 · n=29 | 2.72+0.89 · n=29 | 2.78+0.83 · n=29 | 3.67+0.60 · n=29 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.84+1.72 · n=29 | 1.70+1.29 · n=29 | 1.59+1.18 · n=29 | 1.59+1.06 · n=29 | 1.63+1.08 · n=29 | 1.69+0.95 · n=29 | 2.03+1.19 · n=29 | 2.17+1.32 · n=29 | 2.46+1.34 · n=29 | 2.50+1.48 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | 2.96−0.02 · n=29 | 3.03−0.14 · n=29 | 3.07−0.15 · n=29 | 2.87−0.06 · n=29 | 2.58−0.17 · n=29 | 3.59−0.63 · n=29 | 4.87−0.84 · n=29 | 5.67−1.93 · n=29 | 4.90−0.24 · n=29 | 6.67−2.10 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | 2.57+1.28 · n=29 | 2.60+1.30 · n=29 | 2.50+1.18 · n=29 | 2.58+1.27 · n=29 | 2.90+1.54 · n=29 | 3.18+1.92 · n=29 | 4.39+3.05 · n=29 | 5.33+3.34 · n=29 | 5.73+3.34 · n=29 | 6.69+4.79 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | 1.95+0.40 · n=29 | 1.95+0.15 · n=29 | 2.21+0.39 · n=29 | 2.14+0.34 · n=29 | 2.42+0.44 · n=29 | 2.75+0.73 · n=29 | 3.51+0.57 · n=29 | 4.01−0.49 · n=29 | 4.14+0.63 · n=29 | 4.70+0.97 · n=29 | |
| KOKC | 2.74+2.33 · n=29 | 2.51+2.03 · n=29 | 2.54+2.02 · n=29 | 2.99+2.30 · n=29 | 3.17+2.21 · n=29 | 3.09+2.49 · n=29 | 3.85+2.10 · n=29 | 5.87+2.15 · n=29 | 5.73+2.77 · n=29 | 7.25+2.25 · n=29 | |
| KORD | 2.41−0.69 · n=29 | 2.16−0.51 · n=29 | 2.46−0.44 · n=29 | 2.88−0.29 · n=29 | 2.89−0.60 · n=29 | 3.23−0.01 · n=29 | 3.88−0.23 · n=29 | 5.30−0.63 · n=29 | 7.02−0.39 · n=29 | 5.57+0.88 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | 1.84−0.83 · n=29 | 1.93−0.93 · n=29 | 1.94−0.57 · n=29 | 1.67−0.58 · n=29 | 2.53−0.19 · n=29 | 2.94−0.09 · n=29 | 4.19−0.32 · n=29 | 4.86−1.43 · n=29 | 4.94−0.32 · n=29 | 5.98+0.14 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | 3.44−2.94 · n=29 | 3.21−2.59 · n=29 | 3.23−2.67 · n=29 | 3.14−2.48 · n=29 | 3.21−2.43 · n=29 | 3.50−2.38 · n=29 | 4.20−2.65 · n=29 | 4.92−3.16 · n=29 | 4.98−3.10 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.23+2.13 · n=29 | 2.18+2.11 · n=29 | 2.20+2.15 · n=29 | 2.23+2.01 · n=29 | 2.09+1.93 · n=29 | 2.93+2.21 · n=29 | 3.31+2.36 · n=29 | 3.44+2.41 · n=29 | 3.50+2.38 · n=29 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.41+0.64 · n=29 | 1.50+0.96 · n=29 | 1.65+0.83 · n=29 | 1.70+0.92 · n=29 | 2.02+1.31 · n=29 | 2.64+1.59 · n=29 | 3.44+2.10 · n=29 | 4.33+1.45 · n=29 | 5.24+1.75 · n=29 | 5.93+2.64 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | 1.64−0.96 · n=29 | 1.37−0.45 · n=29 | 1.48−0.30 · n=29 | 1.56+0.10 · n=29 | 1.60+0.61 · n=29 | 1.84+0.66 · n=29 | 2.52+0.84 · n=29 | 2.57+0.28 · n=29 | 3.26−0.49 · n=29 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.59−0.17 · n=29 | 1.68+0.15 · n=29 | 1.92+0.23 · n=29 | 1.79+0.22 · n=29 | 1.89+0.09 · n=29 | 2.03+0.07 · n=29 | 2.33+0.04 · n=29 | 2.33−0.24 · n=29 | 3.14−0.15 · n=29 | — | |
| KTTN | 4.28+4.23 · n=29 | 4.28+4.24 · n=29 | 4.64+4.58 · n=29 | 4.56+4.51 · n=29 | 5.11+4.87 · n=29 | 5.11+5.07 · n=29 | 5.57+4.71 · n=29 | 5.94+3.61 · n=29 | 6.13+4.81 · n=29 | 7.77+5.10 · n=29 |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
ecmwf · aifs-single
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0, © ECMWF.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.