Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

ECMWF AIFS Single (aifs_single)

source ecmwf · product aifs-single · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.33-4.33 · n=29 4.38-4.38 · n=28 4.34-4.34 · n=27 4.49-4.49 · n=26 4.40-4.40 · n=24 4.79-4.70 · n=24 5.22-4.97 · n=23 5.22-4.97 · n=22 5.63-5.63 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —5.78-5.78 · n=29 5.65-5.65 · n=28 5.55-5.55 · n=27 5.39-5.39 · n=26 5.17-5.17 · n=24 5.05-5.05 · n=24 4.96-4.96 · n=23 4.78-4.78 · n=22 5.11-5.11 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —3.23-2.57 · n=28 3.44-2.96 · n=27 4.04-2.98 · n=26 4.16-2.22 · n=25 4.29-2.21 · n=23 4.50-2.45 · n=23 4.46-3.08 · n=22 4.67-3.12 · n=21 5.24-4.02 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —2.11-1.76 · n=29 2.69-2.28 · n=28 2.50-2.17 · n=27 2.75-2.30 · n=26 3.03-2.42 · n=24 3.70-2.60 · n=24 3.51-2.81 · n=23 4.03-3.95 · n=22 4.97-3.85 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —3.68-3.47 · n=29 3.55-3.37 · n=28 3.86-3.34 · n=27 4.10-3.87 · n=26 4.45-4.35 · n=24 5.15-5.15 · n=24 6.51-6.39 · n=23 6.78-6.17 · n=22 6.56-6.23 · n=21 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —3.21-3.09 · n=29 3.24-3.05 · n=28 3.23-3.06 · n=27 3.38-2.91 · n=26 3.60-3.21 · n=24 4.04-3.72 · n=24 4.02-3.39 · n=23 4.24-3.97 · n=22 5.11-4.96 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —2.48-2.46 · n=29 3.18-3.12 · n=28 3.07-2.86 · n=27 2.93-2.65 · n=26 3.17-2.95 · n=24 3.47-3.12 · n=24 3.11-3.07 · n=23 4.19-4.04 · n=22 4.99-4.92 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —4.08-4.08 · n=29 3.81-3.81 · n=28 3.79-3.79 · n=27 3.81-3.81 · n=26 3.93-3.93 · n=24 3.73-3.69 · n=24 3.53-3.46 · n=23 3.32-3.31 · n=22 4.26-3.88 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —4.94-4.69 · n=29 4.80-4.64 · n=28 4.93-4.93 · n=27 5.18-5.02 · n=26 5.62-5.24 · n=24 5.73-5.23 · n=24 6.52-5.77 · n=23 6.98-6.46 · n=22 7.54-7.23 · n=21 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —1.48+0.57 · n=29 1.43+0.53 · n=28 1.41+0.67 · n=27 1.39+0.61 · n=26 1.49+0.49 · n=24 1.76+0.23 · n=24 2.17-0.35 · n=23 2.01-0.32 · n=22 2.11-1.01 · n=21 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —4.38-4.38 · n=29 4.53-4.53 · n=28 4.51-4.51 · n=27 4.46-4.46 · n=26 4.82-4.82 · n=24 4.72-4.72 · n=24 4.72-4.72 · n=23 4.68-4.68 · n=22 4.54-4.54 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —3.25-2.90 · n=29 3.83-3.67 · n=28 3.91-3.40 · n=27 4.02-3.34 · n=26 4.46-3.92 · n=24 5.48-4.95 · n=24 6.70-6.43 · n=23 7.11-7.07 · n=22 6.84-5.98 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —4.84-4.67 · n=29 4.77-4.77 · n=28 4.81-4.81 · n=27 4.89-4.89 · n=26 4.80-4.80 · n=24 5.23-5.23 · n=24 5.17-5.17 · n=23 5.33-5.33 · n=22 5.58-5.58 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —1.19-0.03 · n=29 1.64-0.57 · n=28 2.05-0.57 · n=27 1.97-0.24 · n=26 1.82-0.57 · n=24 2.28-0.74 · n=24 1.62-0.74 · n=23 2.12-1.66 · n=22 3.12-2.59 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —3.87-3.81 · n=29 3.78-3.71 · n=28 3.62-3.52 · n=27 3.63-3.27 · n=26 4.13-3.39 · n=24 4.68-3.69 · n=24 5.42-4.16 · n=23 6.07-5.08 · n=22 6.81-6.77 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —3.30-3.30 · n=29 3.42-3.38 · n=28 3.46-3.26 · n=27 3.11-2.76 · n=26 3.52-2.98 · n=24 3.83-3.29 · n=24 4.60-4.38 · n=23 5.06-4.58 · n=22 5.71-5.03 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —2.19-2.09 · n=29 2.76-2.58 · n=28 2.67-2.30 · n=27 2.47-2.24 · n=26 2.83-2.72 · n=24 3.42-2.63 · n=24 2.97-2.61 · n=23 4.19-3.79 · n=22 4.94-4.35 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —3.07-2.79 · n=29 3.11-2.83 · n=28 3.76-3.53 · n=27 4.04-3.94 · n=26 4.64-4.38 · n=24 4.91-4.42 · n=24 5.23-4.90 · n=23 6.21-5.89 · n=22 6.54-5.95 · n=21 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —4.10-4.10 · n=29 4.12-4.12 · n=28 4.02-4.02 · n=27 4.09-4.06 · n=26 3.84-3.83 · n=24 3.84-3.84 · n=24 3.91-3.91 · n=23 4.09-3.81 · n=22 4.14-3.95 · n=21 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —3.67-3.67 · n=29 3.54-3.54 · n=28 3.50-3.50 · n=27 3.42-3.42 · n=26 3.22-3.22 · n=24 3.13-3.12 · n=24 3.11-3.11 · n=23 3.02-3.02 · n=22 3.39-3.31 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —5.20-5.20 · n=29 5.24-5.24 · n=28 5.09-5.09 · n=27 4.97-4.97 · n=26 4.83-4.73 · n=24 4.90-4.65 · n=24 5.48-5.04 · n=23 5.56-4.93 · n=22 6.66-6.01 · n=21 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —4.64-4.50 · n=29 4.46-4.33 · n=28 4.74-4.51 · n=27 4.71-4.59 · n=26 4.73-4.50 · n=24 4.92-4.42 · n=24 5.30-5.01 · n=23 6.01-5.27 · n=22 6.04-5.58 · n=21 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —1.85+0.87 · n=29 2.05+0.18 · n=28 1.95+0.52 · n=27 1.80+0.66 · n=26 1.83+0.35 · n=24 2.50+0.30 · n=24 1.44+0.34 · n=23 2.22-0.76 · n=22 2.86-1.59 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —1.46-0.32 · n=29 1.68-0.35 · n=28 1.83-0.36 · n=27 1.90-0.35 · n=26 1.96-0.11 · n=24 1.79-0.15 · n=24 1.84+0.00 · n=23 2.44-0.45 · n=22 2.30-0.13 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —2.54+2.33 · n=29 2.79+2.51 · n=28 2.78+2.51 · n=27 2.98+2.83 · n=26 3.08+2.95 · n=24 3.03+2.95 · n=24 3.05+2.99 · n=23 3.10+3.00 · n=22 3.02+2.96 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —1.23-0.08 · n=28 1.29+0.07 · n=27 1.47-0.10 · n=26 1.65-0.29 · n=25 1.87-0.40 · n=23 2.18-0.33 · n=23 2.09+0.06 · n=22 2.16-0.32 · n=21 2.83-0.57 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —1.47+0.46 · n=29 1.70+0.73 · n=28 2.01+0.53 · n=27 2.27+0.24 · n=26 2.58-0.07 · n=24 3.01+0.19 · n=24 2.73+0.27 · n=23 2.61+0.54 · n=22 3.89+0.21 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —3.08+2.12 · n=29 3.06+2.48 · n=28 3.02+2.33 · n=27 3.07+2.33 · n=26 2.48+1.65 · n=24 2.32+1.55 · n=24 2.62+1.24 · n=23 2.86+0.99 · n=22 2.81+0.63 · n=21 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —1.89-1.70 · n=29 1.76-1.57 · n=28 1.79-1.48 · n=27 1.83-1.59 · n=26 2.10-1.79 · n=24 2.14-1.69 · n=24 2.13-1.75 · n=23 2.22-1.54 · n=22 2.44-1.72 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —2.02+1.39 · n=29 2.30+1.84 · n=28 2.33+1.88 · n=27 2.60+1.38 · n=26 2.78+1.20 · n=24 2.80+1.43 · n=24 2.59+1.56 · n=23 2.72+1.68 · n=22 3.55+1.11 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —1.60-0.55 · n=29 1.57-0.41 · n=28 1.58-0.21 · n=27 1.67-0.22 · n=26 1.61-0.44 · n=24 1.88-0.11 · n=24 1.93+0.05 · n=23 2.06+0.01 · n=22 2.45-0.09 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —5.05-4.98 · n=29 5.10-5.01 · n=28 5.05-4.86 · n=27 4.82-4.66 · n=26 4.96-4.57 · n=24 5.45-5.05 · n=24 5.46-5.05 · n=23 5.43-5.18 · n=22 6.28-6.05 · n=21 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —0.53-0.03 · n=29 0.56-0.23 · n=28 0.70-0.31 · n=27 0.81-0.25 · n=26 0.69-0.33 · n=24 0.73-0.43 · n=24 0.91-0.48 · n=23 1.35-0.64 · n=22 1.20-0.92 · n=21 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —1.82+1.50 · n=29 1.80+1.45 · n=28 1.75+1.37 · n=27 1.77+1.39 · n=26 1.81+1.47 · n=24 1.78+1.23 · n=24 1.93+1.33 · n=23 1.95+1.42 · n=22 2.06+1.57 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —2.75-2.36 · n=29 2.49-2.04 · n=28 2.71-2.16 · n=27 2.64-2.13 · n=26 2.58-1.83 · n=24 3.46-1.88 · n=24 4.59-3.43 · n=23 5.71-4.63 · n=22 5.70-3.20 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —2.51+2.30 · n=29 2.70+2.43 · n=28 2.84+2.55 · n=27 2.83+2.54 · n=26 3.19+2.90 · n=24 3.25+3.05 · n=24 3.26+2.99 · n=23 3.11+2.79 · n=22 2.93+2.21 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —2.48+2.23 · n=29 2.92+2.70 · n=28 2.89+2.71 · n=27 2.55+2.37 · n=26 2.71+2.32 · n=24 2.77+2.48 · n=24 2.86+2.54 · n=23 2.90+2.61 · n=22 3.19+2.12 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —2.85+2.42 · n=29 2.95+2.65 · n=28 3.11+2.80 · n=27 3.27+2.94 · n=26 3.47+3.03 · n=24 3.41+2.88 · n=24 3.19+2.43 · n=23 2.78+2.40 · n=22 2.44+1.77 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —1.71+0.66 · n=29 1.55+0.28 · n=28 1.55+0.18 · n=27 1.74+0.60 · n=26 2.04+0.60 · n=24 2.26+0.57 · n=24 1.98+0.07 · n=23 2.91-0.70 · n=22 3.58-1.66 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —1.48+0.21 · n=29 1.73+0.38 · n=28 2.06+0.33 · n=27 2.39-0.14 · n=26 2.67-0.21 · n=24 2.83-0.24 · n=24 2.46+0.07 · n=23 2.20+0.31 · n=22 3.20-0.20 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —3.38-1.94 · n=29 3.36-1.69 · n=28 3.51-1.88 · n=27 3.87-2.04 · n=26 4.23-2.19 · n=24 4.57-2.52 · n=24 4.49-2.66 · n=23 4.51-2.88 · n=22 5.03-3.73 · n=21 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —1.37-1.19 · n=29 1.52-1.38 · n=28 1.49-1.22 · n=27 1.44-1.12 · n=26 1.25-1.13 · n=24 1.12-1.05 · n=24 1.01-0.95 · n=23 1.26-1.02 · n=22 1.55-1.07 · n=21 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —1.64-1.22 · n=29 1.56-1.03 · n=28 1.70-1.00 · n=27 1.69-0.90 · n=26 1.65-0.80 · n=24 1.64-0.90 · n=24 1.63-0.75 · n=23 1.68-0.66 · n=22 1.60-0.70 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —1.65-1.37 · n=29 1.46-0.91 · n=28 1.25-0.58 · n=27 1.05-0.26 · n=26 1.16-0.12 · n=24 1.34+0.25 · n=24 1.59+0.34 · n=23 1.89+0.29 · n=22 1.70+0.12 · n=21 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —0.85-0.37 · n=29 1.10-0.57 · n=28 1.26-0.75 · n=27 1.30-0.90 · n=26 1.37-0.97 · n=24 1.41-0.99 · n=24 1.81-0.99 · n=23 1.49-0.71 · n=22 1.35-0.90 · n=21 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —4.11+4.11 · n=29 4.49+4.49 · n=28 4.52+4.52 · n=27 4.01+3.93 · n=26 3.87+3.72 · n=24 4.03+3.76 · n=24 4.24+4.02 · n=23 4.34+4.34 · n=22 4.05+3.84 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

ecmwf · aifs-single

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0, © ECMWF.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences