KDFW — Dallas-Fort Worth
32.8974, -97.0220 · 165 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIDFW
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.77-2.61 · n=30 | 2.88-2.60 · n=29 | 3.15-3.04 · n=28 | 3.13-2.81 · n=27 | 3.21-2.67 · n=26 | 3.66-3.16 · n=25 | 3.84-3.55 · n=24 | 4.55-4.24 · n=23 | 4.80-4.27 · n=22 | 5.21-4.33 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 4.68-4.68 · n=2 | 6.05-6.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 5.36-5.36 · n=3 | 6.64-6.64 · n=2 | 5.74-5.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.95-3.95 · n=2 | 3.96-3.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.31-5.31 · n=3 | 5.73-5.73 · n=2 | 4.82-4.82 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.41+0.65 · n=30 | 1.73+1.34 · n=29 | 1.91+1.03 · n=28 | 1.92+1.44 · n=27 | 1.88+1.07 · n=26 | 2.19+0.43 · n=25 | 2.25+0.92 · n=24 | 2.59+0.88 · n=23 | 3.32+0.64 · n=22 | 3.03+0.78 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 4.86-4.86 · n=2 | 5.83-5.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.23-5.15 · n=34 | 6.26-6.22 · n=33 | 7.03-7.03 · n=32 | 7.19-7.19 · n=31 | 7.16-7.09 · n=31 | 7.71-7.50 · n=31 | 8.27-8.27 · n=30 | 8.15-7.93 · n=29 | 7.99-7.43 · n=28 | 8.52-6.95 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.45-1.62 · n=24 | 2.28-1.40 · n=23 | 2.53-1.65 · n=22 | 2.42-0.85 · n=22 | 2.26-0.94 · n=20 | 1.96-1.41 · n=18 | 2.16-1.05 · n=19 | 1.66-0.67 · n=18 | 2.63-1.02 · n=17 | 2.59-1.05 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.26-2.26 · n=2 | 1.77-1.77 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.26-4.26 · n=3 | 5.23-5.23 · n=2 | 4.74-4.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 5.08-0.06 · n=365 | 6.92-0.12 · n=365 | 7.77-0.12 · n=365 | 7.99-0.14 · n=365 | 8.17-0.18 · n=365 | 8.38-0.19 · n=365 | 8.59-0.22 · n=365 | 8.67-0.25 · n=365 | 8.76-0.27 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.68-1.42 · n=30 | 1.61-1.33 · n=29 | 1.63-1.33 · n=28 | 1.76-1.46 · n=27 | 1.85-1.53 · n=26 | 2.07-1.54 · n=25 | 2.17-1.60 · n=24 | 2.06-1.48 · n=23 | 2.06-1.59 · n=22 | 2.16-1.48 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 3.12+3.12 · n=2 | 0.56+0.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.15+0.42 · n=3 | 0.27+0.22 · n=2 | 0.40+0.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 0.78+0.78 · n=2 | 0.66-0.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.10-0.81 · n=3 | 0.95-0.95 · n=2 | 1.39-1.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.02+3.02 · n=30 | 3.73+3.73 · n=29 | 3.46+3.44 · n=28 | 3.48+3.48 · n=27 | 3.12+3.12 · n=26 | 2.86+2.72 · n=25 | 2.86+2.86 · n=24 | 3.88+3.35 · n=23 | 3.95+3.02 · n=22 | 3.58+2.80 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.50+2.50 · n=2 | 0.85+0.85 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.80+1.55 · n=34 | 1.49+1.03 · n=33 | 1.67+0.52 · n=32 | 1.99+0.05 · n=31 | 2.43+0.03 · n=31 | 2.26-0.30 · n=31 | 2.29-0.66 · n=30 | 2.17-0.91 · n=29 | 2.51-0.22 · n=28 | 3.20+0.56 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.17+2.17 · n=24 | 2.86+2.86 · n=23 | 3.05+3.03 · n=22 | 3.03+3.02 · n=22 | 3.49+3.49 · n=20 | 3.20+3.20 · n=18 | 3.07+3.03 · n=19 | 3.36+3.36 · n=18 | 3.79+3.79 · n=17 | 4.25+4.05 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.66+2.66 · n=2 | 1.08+1.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 0.62-0.62 · n=3 | 1.67-1.67 · n=2 | 2.32-2.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.26-0.02 · n=365 | 6.10-0.04 · n=365 | 6.81-0.05 · n=365 | 7.29-0.08 · n=365 | 7.88-0.10 · n=365 | 8.15-0.12 · n=365 | 8.39-0.15 · n=365 | 8.50-0.17 · n=365 | 8.67-0.17 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences