KDFW — Dallas-Fort Worth
32.8974, -97.0220 · 165 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIDFW
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 3.21-3.09 · n=29 | 3.24-3.05 · n=28 | 3.23-3.06 · n=27 | 3.38-2.91 · n=26 | 3.60-3.21 · n=24 | 4.04-3.72 · n=24 | 4.02-3.39 · n=23 | 4.24-3.97 · n=22 | 5.11-4.96 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 7.21-7.21 · n=2 | 7.39-7.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 6.72-6.72 · n=2 | 6.20-6.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 5.51-5.51 · n=2 | 4.36-4.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 6.61-6.61 · n=2 | 5.05-5.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.83+0.88 · n=29 | 1.99+1.40 · n=28 | 1.83+1.40 · n=27 | 2.12+1.17 · n=26 | 1.42+0.87 · n=25 | 2.23+1.52 · n=24 | 3.17+0.44 · n=23 | 3.24+0.34 · n=22 | 3.13+0.58 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 6.14-6.14 · n=2 | 6.53-6.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 6.27-6.27 · n=27 | 7.10-7.10 · n=26 | 7.71-7.71 · n=25 | 7.98-7.98 · n=25 | 7.91-7.91 · n=25 | 8.35-8.35 · n=24 | 8.64-8.64 · n=23 | 8.87-8.87 · n=22 | 8.97-8.97 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 2.83-2.12 · n=24 | 2.59-1.72 · n=22 | 2.37-1.25 · n=22 | 2.44-1.40 · n=21 | 2.35-1.38 · n=20 | 2.23-1.09 · n=19 | 1.99-1.03 · n=17 | 2.48-0.95 · n=17 | 3.89-2.06 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 4.24-4.24 · n=2 | 4.66-4.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 5.31-5.31 · n=2 | 5.16-5.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.28-0.08 · n=90 | 3.17-0.17 · n=90 | 3.66-0.26 · n=90 | 3.67-0.36 · n=90 | 3.81-0.50 · n=90 | 3.92-0.68 · n=90 | 3.91-0.91 · n=90 | 3.88-1.14 · n=90 | 3.54-1.32 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 1.89-1.70 · n=29 | 1.76-1.57 · n=28 | 1.79-1.48 · n=27 | 1.83-1.59 · n=26 | 2.10-1.79 · n=24 | 2.14-1.69 · n=24 | 2.13-1.75 · n=23 | 2.22-1.54 · n=22 | 2.44-1.72 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 1.15+1.15 · n=2 | 0.29-0.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 0.45+0.27 · n=2 | 0.01-0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 0.41-0.36 · n=2 | 1.36-1.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 1.30-1.30 · n=2 | 1.83-1.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 3.40+3.40 · n=29 | 3.79+3.71 · n=28 | 3.28+3.28 · n=27 | 3.21+3.20 · n=26 | 3.01+3.01 · n=25 | 3.28+2.91 · n=24 | 4.06+3.31 · n=23 | 3.72+3.16 · n=22 | 3.87+2.67 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 1.67+1.67 · n=2 | 0.01+0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 1.03-0.31 · n=27 | 1.23-0.81 · n=26 | 1.63-1.22 · n=25 | 2.00-1.52 · n=25 | 2.27-1.75 · n=25 | 2.40-1.76 · n=24 | 2.24-1.68 · n=23 | 2.55-2.00 · n=22 | 2.30-1.66 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 2.26+2.07 · n=24 | 2.71+2.71 · n=22 | 2.92+2.92 · n=22 | 3.20+3.18 · n=21 | 3.12+3.12 · n=20 | 3.44+3.44 · n=19 | 3.43+3.27 · n=17 | 3.89+3.86 · n=17 | 4.49+4.13 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 1.93+1.93 · n=2 | 0.27-0.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 1.63-1.63 · n=2 | 2.78-2.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.08-0.06 · n=90 | 2.64-0.09 · n=90 | 2.94-0.12 · n=90 | 3.22-0.20 · n=90 | 3.08-0.34 · n=90 | 3.38-0.51 · n=90 | 3.23-0.72 · n=90 | 3.10-0.92 · n=90 | 3.34-1.06 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences