KOKC — Oklahoma City
35.3886, -97.6003 · 394 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIOKC
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.58-3.55 · n=30 | 3.72-3.45 · n=29 | 3.68-3.57 · n=28 | 3.77-3.50 · n=27 | 3.92-3.25 · n=26 | 4.54-3.32 · n=25 | 4.53-3.83 · n=24 | 5.02-4.69 · n=23 | 6.86-5.49 · n=22 | 7.16-5.28 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.15-5.15 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.53-6.53 · n=3 | 7.57-7.57 · n=2 | 7.25-7.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 5.89-5.89 · n=2 | 6.24-6.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 6.62-6.62 · n=3 | 7.13-7.13 · n=2 | 7.02-7.02 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.50+1.32 · n=30 | 2.67+1.96 · n=29 | 3.13+2.21 · n=28 | 3.28+2.44 · n=27 | 2.99+1.93 · n=26 | 3.91+1.97 · n=25 | 4.23+1.27 · n=24 | 3.38+1.08 · n=23 | 4.09-0.03 · n=22 | 3.14+1.41 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.74-5.74 · n=2 | 7.68-7.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 6.48-6.48 · n=34 | 7.16-7.16 · n=33 | 7.69-7.69 · n=32 | 8.31-8.31 · n=31 | 8.46-8.46 · n=31 | 8.59-8.37 · n=31 | 9.64-9.64 · n=30 | 9.97-9.97 · n=29 | 10.28-9.59 · n=28 | 10.09-8.39 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.70-2.99 · n=24 | 3.79-2.50 · n=23 | 3.03-2.28 · n=22 | 3.22-2.38 · n=22 | 3.64-2.52 · n=20 | 3.04-0.66 · n=18 | 2.84-0.85 · n=19 | 2.36-1.23 · n=18 | 2.85+0.32 · n=17 | 4.06+0.12 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.55-3.55 · n=2 | 2.66-2.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.91-4.91 · n=3 | 5.21-5.21 · n=2 | 4.96-4.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 6.28-0.06 · n=365 | 8.67-0.15 · n=365 | 9.27-0.21 · n=365 | 9.31-0.25 · n=365 | 9.61-0.33 · n=365 | 10.06-0.41 · n=365 | 10.37-0.45 · n=365 | 10.57-0.48 · n=365 | 10.76-0.49 · n=365 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.87+2.55 · n=30 | 3.10+2.79 · n=29 | 3.40+2.98 · n=28 | 3.21+2.71 · n=27 | 3.25+2.82 · n=26 | 3.45+3.00 · n=25 | 3.82+2.91 · n=24 | 3.19+2.68 · n=23 | 3.31+2.44 · n=22 | 4.64+2.06 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 7.90+7.90 · n=2 | 5.94+5.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 4.64+3.86 · n=3 | 5.09+5.09 · n=2 | 4.10+4.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.21+4.21 · n=2 | 1.54+1.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.74+1.92 · n=3 | 2.93+2.93 · n=2 | 0.82+0.82 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.65+1.35 · n=30 | 3.01+2.08 · n=29 | 3.37+2.86 · n=28 | 5.32+4.45 · n=27 | 5.23+4.84 · n=26 | 5.32+4.38 · n=25 | 5.62+4.01 · n=24 | 5.50+3.17 · n=23 | 4.90+1.71 · n=22 | 5.60+2.42 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 7.30+7.30 · n=2 | 5.73+5.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.84+4.78 · n=34 | 4.42+4.33 · n=33 | 4.88+4.42 · n=32 | 4.65+3.88 · n=31 | 4.40+3.62 · n=31 | 4.05+3.32 · n=31 | 4.02+2.72 · n=30 | 3.53+2.05 · n=29 | 3.24+2.36 · n=28 | 4.37+2.80 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 4.15+4.15 · n=24 | 5.50+5.50 · n=23 | 6.08+5.87 · n=22 | 5.83+5.73 · n=22 | 5.98+5.98 · n=20 | 6.90+6.89 · n=18 | 7.26+7.26 · n=19 | 7.68+7.68 · n=18 | 8.31+8.31 · n=17 | 8.70+8.70 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 6.89+6.89 · n=2 | 5.58+5.58 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.57+2.67 · n=3 | 3.06+3.06 · n=2 | 1.48+1.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 5.22-0.02 · n=365 | 6.96-0.02 · n=365 | 7.59-0.04 · n=365 | 8.32-0.06 · n=365 | 9.00-0.10 · n=365 | 9.62-0.12 · n=365 | 9.56-0.15 · n=365 | 9.51-0.16 · n=365 | 9.50-0.18 · n=365 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences