KEWR — Newark Liberty
40.6825, -74.1694 · 5 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIEWR
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.58-2.54 · n=30 | 2.71-2.68 · n=29 | 3.09-2.88 · n=28 | 2.97-2.59 · n=27 | 3.49-3.20 · n=26 | 3.58-3.05 · n=25 | 3.16-3.01 · n=24 | 3.86-3.62 · n=23 | 4.31-4.21 · n=22 | 5.51-4.99 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 3.96-3.96 · n=2 | 2.84-2.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 4.22-4.22 · n=3 | 3.07-3.07 · n=2 | 0.55-0.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.79-2.79 · n=2 | 2.01-2.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.75-4.75 · n=3 | 1.85-1.85 · n=2 | 2.09-2.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.70-1.09 · n=30 | 1.99-0.97 · n=29 | 2.93-1.81 · n=28 | 2.32-0.79 · n=27 | 2.59-1.22 · n=26 | 3.54-1.32 · n=25 | 3.12-0.49 · n=24 | 2.73-1.00 · n=23 | 3.56-2.03 · n=22 | 4.91-0.77 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 3.88-3.88 · n=2 | 4.59-4.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.57-4.57 · n=28 | 4.87-4.87 · n=27 | 4.78-4.78 · n=26 | 4.57-4.57 · n=25 | 4.75-4.71 · n=25 | 4.36-4.20 · n=25 | 4.38-4.37 · n=24 | 4.28-4.21 · n=23 | 4.60-3.76 · n=22 | 5.47-3.35 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.46-3.14 · n=24 | 4.30-3.94 · n=23 | 3.75-3.59 · n=22 | 3.59-3.27 · n=22 | 3.04-2.01 · n=20 | 3.70-2.50 · n=18 | 4.10-1.37 · n=19 | 3.17-2.35 · n=18 | 3.50-2.25 · n=17 | 4.45-0.76 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.28+0.51 · n=2 | 1.93+1.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.47-1.04 · n=3 | 0.62+0.60 · n=2 | 1.39+1.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.80+0.20 · n=30 | 3.27+0.13 · n=30 | 3.47+0.07 · n=30 | 4.20+0.13 · n=30 | 3.83+0.17 · n=30 | 4.03+0.30 · n=30 | 4.43+0.23 · n=30 | 4.80+0.20 · n=30 | 4.80+0.27 · n=30 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.68+1.26 · n=30 | 2.09+1.39 · n=29 | 2.38+1.82 · n=28 | 2.64+1.89 · n=27 | 2.54+1.50 · n=26 | 2.89+1.44 · n=25 | 2.76+1.50 · n=24 | 2.55+1.73 · n=23 | 2.93+1.20 · n=22 | 3.96+1.19 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.70+1.70 · n=2 | 2.04+2.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.27+1.27 · n=3 | 1.43+1.43 · n=2 | 1.38+1.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.08+2.08 · n=2 | 2.78+2.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 0.91+0.80 · n=3 | 3.02+3.02 · n=2 | 4.08+4.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.58+3.28 · n=30 | 3.85+3.51 · n=29 | 3.64+3.05 · n=28 | 4.00+3.89 · n=27 | 4.12+3.80 · n=26 | 3.89+2.94 · n=25 | 4.61+3.61 · n=24 | 4.33+3.64 · n=23 | 4.47+3.53 · n=22 | 4.90+3.08 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.83+1.83 · n=2 | 2.38+2.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.97+1.19 · n=28 | 2.13+0.77 · n=27 | 2.18+0.95 · n=26 | 2.52+1.42 · n=25 | 2.65+1.18 · n=25 | 2.69+1.07 · n=25 | 2.76+1.27 · n=24 | 2.90+1.13 · n=23 | 3.75+0.72 · n=22 | 3.48+0.84 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.86+1.49 · n=24 | 2.21+1.02 · n=23 | 2.52+1.82 · n=22 | 3.28+2.74 · n=22 | 3.27+2.66 · n=20 | 3.05+1.48 · n=18 | 2.88+2.29 · n=19 | 3.19+2.82 · n=18 | 3.72+2.72 · n=17 | 4.70+3.11 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.83+1.83 · n=2 | 0.80+0.80 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.61+1.61 · n=3 | 2.32+1.05 · n=2 | 1.05+1.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.10+0.10 · n=30 | 4.33+0.27 · n=30 | 4.10+0.30 · n=30 | 3.10+0.30 · n=30 | 2.87+0.47 · n=30 | 3.67+0.47 · n=30 | 4.53+0.47 · n=30 | 5.10+0.30 · n=30 | 4.27+0.20 · n=30 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences