KEWR — Newark Liberty
40.6825, -74.1694 · 5 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIEWR
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 2.48-2.46 · n=29 | 3.18-3.12 · n=28 | 3.07-2.86 · n=27 | 2.93-2.65 · n=26 | 3.17-2.95 · n=24 | 3.47-3.12 · n=24 | 3.11-3.07 · n=23 | 4.19-4.04 · n=22 | 4.99-4.92 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 4.36-4.36 · n=2 | 3.20-3.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 4.07-4.07 · n=2 | 1.92-1.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 1.50-1.50 · n=2 | 3.04-3.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 2.22-2.22 · n=2 | 2.01-2.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.99-1.02 · n=29 | 2.37-1.40 · n=28 | 2.87-1.67 · n=27 | 3.52-2.11 · n=26 | 2.88-1.20 · n=25 | 3.43-1.33 · n=24 | 3.64-0.36 · n=23 | 3.31-0.55 · n=22 | 4.97-0.46 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 3.95-3.95 · n=2 | 5.26-5.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 4.69-4.69 · n=27 | 4.93-4.93 · n=26 | 5.04-5.04 · n=25 | 4.38-4.38 · n=25 | 4.84-4.75 · n=25 | 4.26-4.23 · n=24 | 4.35-4.35 · n=23 | 5.75-5.40 · n=22 | 5.65-5.27 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 3.97-3.61 · n=24 | 4.30-4.11 · n=22 | 3.90-3.66 · n=22 | 3.85-2.61 · n=21 | 3.35-2.24 · n=20 | 3.61-2.38 · n=19 | 4.83-4.22 · n=17 | 4.15-3.26 · n=17 | 5.29-4.30 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 1.54+0.72 · n=2 | 0.96+0.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 1.41+0.39 · n=2 | 1.19+1.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.44-0.09 · n=90 | 6.12-0.10 · n=90 | 7.21-0.30 · n=90 | 7.66-0.30 · n=90 | 7.14-0.34 · n=90 | 7.17-0.30 · n=90 | 6.81-0.30 · n=90 | 7.49-0.36 · n=90 | 7.76-0.60 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 2.02+1.39 · n=29 | 2.30+1.84 · n=28 | 2.33+1.88 · n=27 | 2.60+1.38 · n=26 | 2.78+1.20 · n=24 | 2.80+1.43 · n=24 | 2.59+1.56 · n=23 | 2.72+1.68 · n=22 | 3.55+1.11 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 1.97+1.97 · n=2 | 2.33+2.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 0.53+0.53 · n=2 | 0.38+0.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 3.13+3.13 · n=2 | 4.67+4.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 2.16+2.16 · n=2 | 3.68+3.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 3.35+2.97 · n=29 | 3.47+3.05 · n=28 | 4.01+3.62 · n=27 | 3.56+3.00 · n=26 | 3.89+2.90 · n=25 | 4.23+3.63 · n=24 | 4.57+3.46 · n=23 | 4.64+3.53 · n=22 | 4.38+3.02 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 2.48+2.48 · n=2 | 2.63+2.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 2.02+0.61 · n=27 | 2.11+0.93 · n=26 | 2.21+1.07 · n=25 | 2.39+1.10 · n=25 | 2.82+0.91 · n=25 | 2.89+1.18 · n=24 | 2.22+1.04 · n=23 | 3.44+1.00 · n=22 | 3.51-0.22 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 2.21+1.02 · n=24 | 2.12+1.57 · n=22 | 2.50+1.80 · n=22 | 3.10+1.96 · n=21 | 2.52+1.34 · n=20 | 2.77+2.07 · n=19 | 2.89+2.40 · n=17 | 3.91+2.50 · n=17 | 3.40+1.48 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 1.25+1.25 · n=2 | 1.03+1.03 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 0.99+0.99 · n=2 | 1.31+1.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.27-0.09 · n=90 | 4.83-0.28 · n=90 | 5.23-0.46 · n=90 | 4.97-0.59 · n=90 | 4.82-0.62 · n=90 | 5.16-0.60 · n=90 | 5.32-0.66 · n=90 | 5.69-0.78 · n=90 | 5.59-0.97 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences