Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

GraphCast (IFS init) (graphcast_ifs)

source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 5.90-5.90 · n=28 5.93-5.93 · n=27 5.81-5.81 · n=26 5.56-5.56 · n=25 5.14-5.13 · n=25 5.04-5.02 · n=25 5.35-5.09 · n=24 5.42-5.20 · n=23 5.65-5.36 · n=22 6.02-5.78 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 7.23-7.23 · n=28 7.51-7.51 · n=27 7.38-7.38 · n=26 7.32-7.32 · n=25 7.21-7.21 · n=25 7.30-7.30 · n=25 7.17-7.17 · n=24 7.34-7.34 · n=23 7.43-7.43 · n=22 7.49-7.49 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 2.89-2.44 · n=27 2.89-2.37 · n=27 3.28-2.68 · n=26 3.38-2.06 · n=24 4.43-1.58 · n=24 4.17-1.41 · n=24 4.34-1.71 · n=23 4.52-1.85 · n=22 5.38-1.11 · n=21 5.39-1.26 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 4.64-4.64 · n=28 4.97-4.97 · n=27 4.78-4.78 · n=26 4.85-4.76 · n=25 4.81-4.69 · n=25 4.78-4.29 · n=25 5.01-4.57 · n=24 4.82-4.27 · n=23 6.42-4.67 · n=22 6.46-4.17 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 5.53-5.53 · n=28 5.92-5.92 · n=27 6.32-6.28 · n=26 6.60-6.60 · n=25 7.30-7.30 · n=25 7.46-7.46 · n=25 7.63-7.63 · n=24 8.62-8.57 · n=23 9.47-9.15 · n=22 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 4.81-4.72 · n=28 5.73-5.68 · n=27 6.63-6.63 · n=26 6.86-6.86 · n=25 7.13-7.13 · n=25 7.48-7.48 · n=25 7.81-7.81 · n=24 8.07-8.07 · n=23 8.51-8.51 · n=22 8.35-8.35 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 4.57-4.57 · n=28 4.87-4.87 · n=27 4.78-4.78 · n=26 4.57-4.57 · n=25 4.75-4.71 · n=25 4.36-4.20 · n=25 4.38-4.37 · n=24 4.28-4.21 · n=23 4.60-3.76 · n=22 5.47-3.35 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 5.55-5.55 · n=28 6.20-6.20 · n=27 6.37-6.37 · n=26 6.49-6.49 · n=25 6.41-6.41 · n=25 6.23-6.23 · n=25 6.29-6.29 · n=24 6.13-6.11 · n=23 5.97-5.97 · n=22 6.38-6.15 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 5.17-4.94 · n=28 4.90-4.73 · n=27 5.63-5.31 · n=26 5.94-5.71 · n=25 7.23-6.58 · n=25 7.11-6.81 · n=25 8.40-7.84 · n=24 8.91-8.66 · n=23 10.46-9.90 · n=22 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 3.31-3.31 · n=28 3.59-3.59 · n=27 3.71-3.71 · n=26 3.66-3.66 · n=25 3.73-3.73 · n=25 3.77-3.77 · n=25 4.15-4.15 · n=24 4.49-4.39 · n=23 4.90-4.90 · n=22 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 3.66-3.66 · n=28 4.43-4.43 · n=27 4.65-4.65 · n=26 4.46-4.46 · n=25 4.57-4.57 · n=25 5.03-5.03 · n=25 5.12-5.12 · n=24 5.22-5.22 · n=23 5.10-5.10 · n=22 5.01-5.01 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 5.55-5.55 · n=28 6.33-6.33 · n=27 6.26-6.25 · n=26 6.32-6.14 · n=25 6.04-5.92 · n=25 6.73-6.57 · n=25 6.93-6.77 · n=24 7.55-7.17 · n=23 6.31-6.05 · n=22 6.44-5.66 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 4.83-4.76 · n=28 5.07-4.99 · n=27 4.93-4.93 · n=26 5.22-5.22 · n=25 5.65-5.65 · n=25 5.25-5.25 · n=25 5.60-5.60 · n=24 5.38-5.38 · n=23 5.19-5.19 · n=22 5.15-4.76 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 1.80-1.31 · n=28 2.07-1.69 · n=27 2.41-1.62 · n=26 2.35-1.63 · n=25 2.66-1.67 · n=25 2.79-1.07 · n=25 2.38-1.38 · n=24 2.37-1.26 · n=23 3.52-0.80 · n=22 4.36-0.53 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 6.38-6.38 · n=28 6.97-6.97 · n=27 7.67-7.67 · n=26 8.09-8.09 · n=25 8.44-8.44 · n=25 8.99-8.99 · n=25 9.44-9.44 · n=24 10.31-10.31 · n=23 10.73-10.66 · n=22 10.37-10.35 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 3.54-3.54 · n=28 3.52-3.49 · n=27 4.29-4.20 · n=26 3.98-3.94 · n=25 4.08-3.86 · n=25 3.67-3.36 · n=25 4.09-3.65 · n=24 4.22-3.30 · n=23 4.57-2.86 · n=22 5.11-3.01 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 4.76-4.76 · n=28 5.16-5.16 · n=27 4.84-4.84 · n=26 4.58-4.48 · n=25 4.49-4.49 · n=25 4.49-4.27 · n=25 4.47-4.39 · n=24 4.53-4.22 · n=23 5.29-3.96 · n=22 5.87-3.45 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 2.89-2.66 · n=28 3.32-3.13 · n=27 3.49-3.35 · n=26 3.44-3.35 · n=25 4.01-3.90 · n=25 5.06-4.87 · n=25 6.00-5.79 · n=24 6.94-6.66 · n=23 9.18-9.04 · n=22 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 5.43-5.43 · n=28 5.88-5.88 · n=27 5.72-5.72 · n=26 5.79-5.79 · n=25 5.80-5.80 · n=25 5.60-5.60 · n=25 5.58-5.58 · n=24 5.70-5.70 · n=23 5.91-5.91 · n=22 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 5.46-5.46 · n=28 5.72-5.72 · n=27 5.69-5.69 · n=26 5.75-5.75 · n=25 5.53-5.53 · n=25 5.49-5.49 · n=25 5.40-5.40 · n=24 5.60-5.60 · n=23 5.89-5.89 · n=22 6.16-6.16 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 4.33-4.30 · n=28 4.49-4.41 · n=27 4.69-4.50 · n=26 4.55-4.33 · n=25 5.12-4.80 · n=25 5.61-5.25 · n=25 6.67-5.92 · n=24 6.45-5.38 · n=23 6.57-6.36 · n=22 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 4.62-4.43 · n=28 5.07-4.91 · n=27 5.16-5.07 · n=26 5.07-4.79 · n=25 5.13-5.00 · n=25 5.56-5.29 · n=25 5.60-5.34 · n=24 5.95-5.74 · n=23 6.76-6.25 · n=22 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 2.06-2.05 · n=28 2.41-2.38 · n=27 2.58-2.20 · n=26 2.47-1.80 · n=25 2.61-1.85 · n=25 2.33-1.45 · n=25 2.25-1.58 · n=24 2.37-1.36 · n=23 3.44-0.95 · n=22 4.15-0.28 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.54-0.83 · n=28 1.63-0.60 · n=27 1.92-0.57 · n=26 1.85-0.42 · n=25 1.75-0.09 · n=25 1.96+0.03 · n=25 2.03+0.22 · n=24 2.55+0.25 · n=23 2.55+0.20 · n=22 2.62+0.16 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 4.12+4.12 · n=28 4.49+4.45 · n=27 4.37+4.30 · n=26 4.35+4.32 · n=25 4.71+4.71 · n=25 4.74+4.74 · n=25 4.96+4.96 · n=24 4.93+4.93 · n=23 4.77+4.76 · n=22 4.54+4.54 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 1.33-0.01 · n=27 1.69-0.26 · n=27 1.67-0.28 · n=26 1.37+0.03 · n=24 1.68+0.31 · n=24 1.84+0.09 · n=24 1.82+0.19 · n=23 2.38-0.10 · n=22 2.77-0.27 · n=21 3.66+0.11 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 1.44+0.38 · n=28 1.66+0.34 · n=27 2.13+0.19 · n=26 2.22+0.35 · n=25 2.67+0.38 · n=25 2.88+0.24 · n=25 2.72+0.58 · n=24 3.25+0.20 · n=23 3.57+0.09 · n=22 4.49-0.55 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 2.82+2.42 · n=28 3.09+2.51 · n=27 2.70+2.36 · n=26 2.64+2.24 · n=25 2.57+2.10 · n=25 2.56+1.91 · n=25 2.63+1.77 · n=24 2.96+1.73 · n=23 3.27+1.08 · n=22 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 1.13+0.83 · n=28 0.84+0.33 · n=27 1.11-0.26 · n=26 1.56-0.80 · n=25 1.84-1.06 · n=25 1.97-1.21 · n=25 2.12-1.36 · n=24 2.15-1.45 · n=23 2.26-1.22 · n=22 2.07-1.11 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 1.97+1.19 · n=28 2.13+0.77 · n=27 2.18+0.95 · n=26 2.52+1.42 · n=25 2.65+1.18 · n=25 2.69+1.07 · n=25 2.76+1.27 · n=24 2.90+1.13 · n=23 3.75+0.72 · n=22 3.48+0.84 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 1.80+1.06 · n=28 1.78+0.73 · n=27 1.76+0.49 · n=26 1.99+0.72 · n=25 2.10+0.75 · n=25 2.39+0.71 · n=25 2.50+0.90 · n=24 2.56+1.01 · n=23 2.91+0.96 · n=22 3.27+0.60 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 2.40-1.83 · n=28 3.11-2.66 · n=27 3.27-2.85 · n=26 3.34-2.85 · n=25 3.95-3.11 · n=25 4.65-3.65 · n=25 4.82-3.92 · n=24 5.60-4.35 · n=23 6.04-4.88 · n=22 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 0.70-0.20 · n=28 0.90-0.70 · n=27 1.06-0.90 · n=26 0.97-0.82 · n=25 0.87-0.77 · n=25 0.97-0.70 · n=25 1.04-0.61 · n=24 1.29-0.70 · n=23 1.69-0.85 · n=22 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 1.47+0.66 · n=28 1.60+0.28 · n=27 1.71+0.06 · n=26 1.51-0.15 · n=25 1.52-0.08 · n=25 1.75-0.10 · n=25 1.68-0.34 · n=24 1.68-0.44 · n=23 1.63-0.38 · n=22 1.50-0.14 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 1.45-0.61 · n=28 1.64-1.10 · n=27 2.13-1.34 · n=26 2.45-1.59 · n=25 2.22-1.61 · n=25 2.84-1.69 · n=25 3.62-1.39 · n=24 4.76-1.65 · n=23 5.52-1.46 · n=22 5.95-1.25 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 3.11+2.98 · n=28 3.06+2.82 · n=27 3.09+2.78 · n=26 3.01+2.93 · n=25 2.93+2.77 · n=25 2.94+2.60 · n=25 2.88+2.59 · n=24 2.87+2.42 · n=23 2.82+2.49 · n=22 2.92+2.38 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 1.82+1.34 · n=28 1.69+0.84 · n=27 1.79+1.09 · n=26 2.03+1.74 · n=25 2.12+1.54 · n=25 2.26+1.35 · n=25 2.38+1.44 · n=24 2.57+1.26 · n=23 3.47+0.79 · n=22 3.32+1.06 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 4.74+4.67 · n=28 4.31+4.19 · n=27 4.28+3.71 · n=26 3.88+2.91 · n=25 3.74+2.76 · n=25 3.23+2.33 · n=25 3.53+2.15 · n=24 3.15+1.56 · n=23 2.54+1.41 · n=22 3.03+1.02 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 1.28+0.68 · n=28 1.47+0.57 · n=27 1.39+0.09 · n=26 1.77+0.09 · n=25 1.92+0.04 · n=25 1.50+0.11 · n=25 2.06+0.10 · n=24 3.53-0.00 · n=23 4.81+0.42 · n=22 5.70+0.11 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 1.58-0.81 · n=28 2.05-0.91 · n=27 2.03-0.67 · n=26 1.98-0.33 · n=25 2.60-0.38 · n=25 2.77-0.44 · n=25 2.76-0.07 · n=24 3.18-0.34 · n=23 3.47-0.68 · n=22 3.64-0.75 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 2.82-0.31 · n=28 2.83-0.08 · n=27 2.81-0.53 · n=26 3.20-0.48 · n=25 3.10-0.84 · n=25 3.52-0.65 · n=25 3.81-0.94 · n=24 3.84-0.95 · n=23 3.97-1.75 · n=22 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 0.85-0.54 · n=28 1.08-0.77 · n=27 1.02-0.65 · n=26 0.81-0.44 · n=25 0.70-0.31 · n=25 0.58-0.25 · n=25 0.74-0.04 · n=24 0.67+0.06 · n=23 1.07-0.13 · n=22 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 1.25+0.46 · n=28 0.96+0.36 · n=27 1.03+0.30 · n=26 1.19+0.69 · n=25 1.38+1.01 · n=25 1.35+0.88 · n=25 1.36+1.11 · n=24 1.58+1.29 · n=23 1.71+1.14 · n=22 1.61+1.07 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 2.47+2.42 · n=28 1.94+1.87 · n=27 1.90+1.84 · n=26 1.93+1.84 · n=25 2.19+2.16 · n=25 1.90+1.89 · n=25 2.23+2.06 · n=24 2.38+1.97 · n=23 2.35+1.71 · n=22 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 0.70+0.48 · n=28 0.83+0.12 · n=27 1.00-0.17 · n=26 1.29-0.46 · n=25 1.42-0.69 · n=25 1.47-0.91 · n=25 1.55-1.10 · n=24 1.81-1.26 · n=23 1.49-0.96 · n=22 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 3.32+3.32 · n=28 3.31+3.27 · n=27 3.55+3.46 · n=26 3.91+3.91 · n=25 3.95+3.75 · n=25 4.08+3.73 · n=25 4.18+4.02 · n=24 4.32+3.85 · n=23 4.57+3.54 · n=22 4.46+3.60 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

aiwp · GRAP · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences