CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

GraphCast (IFS init)

graphcast_ifs

source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initGRAP_v100
Window
the last 30 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.54−2.17 · n=282.31−1.84 · n=282.16−1.48 · n=282.62−1.63 · n=282.84−1.28 · n=282.86−0.82 · n=283.36−0.38 · n=284.19−0.22 · n=284.68−0.66 · n=285.37−1.28 · n=28KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS3.17+0.12 · n=283.35−0.18 · n=283.33−0.37 · n=283.35−0.31 · n=283.69+0.40 · n=284.14+0.50 · n=284.97+1.07 · n=286.76+0.23 · n=286.76−0.69 · n=286.80−1.32 · n=28KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS2.40−2.05 · n=272.39−1.99 · n=272.34−1.78 · n=272.54−1.75 · n=272.95−1.62 · n=283.19−1.49 · n=274.17−1.20 · n=274.84−1.68 · n=275.26−1.72 · n=275.90−1.34 · n=27KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA2.18−1.89 · n=282.13−1.63 · n=282.27−1.66 · n=282.47−1.78 · n=282.94−2.06 · n=283.46−2.25 · n=284.11−1.38 · n=284.14−2.32 · n=285.65−2.10 · n=286.58−1.75 · n=28KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN2.14−0.47 · n=282.25−0.81 · n=282.66−1.00 · n=283.00−1.19 · n=283.47−1.23 · n=285.76−1.93 · n=285.94−2.68 · n=287.18−3.76 · n=288.09−5.19 · n=28—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW2.14−1.83 · n=282.65−2.37 · n=283.05−2.72 · n=283.17−2.77 · n=283.32−2.54 · n=283.60−2.15 · n=284.25−2.06 · n=285.77−2.80 · n=286.54−3.71 · n=287.18−4.57 · n=28KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR2.34−1.80 · n=282.51−2.08 · n=282.54−2.08 · n=282.68−2.23 · n=283.01−2.35 · n=283.22−2.53 · n=283.93−2.34 · n=284.45−3.07 · n=285.56−2.87 · n=285.79−2.32 · n=28KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.14−0.62 · n=282.39−0.95 · n=282.51−1.21 · n=282.51−1.11 · n=282.95−0.81 · n=283.40−0.81 · n=284.04−0.33 · n=285.29−0.77 · n=285.16−1.53 · n=285.91−1.80 · n=28KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS2.93−2.75 · n=282.97−2.72 · n=282.83−2.51 · n=282.73−2.29 · n=283.09−2.08 · n=283.92−1.82 · n=283.97−1.38 · n=284.70−1.88 · n=285.06−2.09 · n=28—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX2.38−1.72 · n=282.75−2.31 · n=283.09−2.70 · n=283.20−2.83 · n=283.47−2.79 · n=284.02−2.56 · n=284.48−2.46 · n=284.44−2.14 · n=285.50−1.92 · n=28—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA2.03−1.61 · n=282.39−1.96 · n=282.61−2.15 · n=282.67−2.13 · n=282.74−2.14 · n=282.98−2.12 · n=282.93−1.95 · n=282.93−1.81 · n=283.05−1.73 · n=283.03−1.72 · n=28KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP2.36−1.67 · n=282.45−1.62 · n=282.59−1.40 · n=282.98−1.41 · n=283.02−1.20 · n=284.32−2.26 · n=285.61−3.83 · n=286.28−3.68 · n=286.92−3.86 · n=287.91−5.15 · n=28KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY2.17−0.83 · n=282.42−1.58 · n=282.46−1.75 · n=282.53−1.81 · n=282.58−1.61 · n=283.10−1.12 · n=283.55−0.75 · n=284.40−0.44 · n=284.61−0.64 · n=285.08−0.17 · n=28KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC2.61−1.31 · n=272.78−1.61 · n=272.90−1.58 · n=273.07−1.76 · n=273.33−1.94 · n=273.41−2.08 · n=274.06−1.82 · n=274.26−2.69 · n=275.21−2.13 · n=275.42−1.88 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC2.54+0.90 · n=282.91+0.52 · n=283.01+0.13 · n=283.24+0.19 · n=283.36+0.04 · n=283.62+0.24 · n=285.22−0.74 · n=286.21−0.99 · n=286.82−2.30 · n=287.75−3.27 · n=28KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD2.09−1.60 · n=282.22−1.66 · n=282.51−1.75 · n=282.94−1.86 · n=283.05−1.55 · n=283.63−1.12 · n=284.46−1.87 · n=285.88−2.64 · n=286.37−2.30 · n=286.69−3.63 · n=28KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL2.90−2.54 · n=282.90−2.39 · n=282.94−2.46 · n=283.05−2.66 · n=283.54−2.81 · n=283.65−3.01 · n=283.99−2.60 · n=284.83−3.38 · n=285.99−3.19 · n=286.21−2.56 · n=28KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX3.45−3.03 · n=283.79−3.21 · n=283.90−3.40 · n=284.03−3.28 · n=283.99−2.96 · n=284.48−2.19 · n=285.21−1.64 · n=285.76−1.58 · n=286.39−2.24 · n=28—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN2.88−1.95 · n=283.15−2.28 · n=283.33−2.49 · n=283.49−2.59 · n=283.79−2.68 · n=284.28−2.80 · n=284.45−2.72 · n=284.72−2.60 · n=285.38−2.40 · n=28—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT1.72−0.55 · n=281.88−0.67 · n=282.04−0.80 · n=282.21−0.64 · n=282.51−0.24 · n=283.02−0.20 · n=284.00+0.40 · n=285.56−0.35 · n=285.42−1.18 · n=285.50−1.56 · n=28KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA1.93−0.85 · n=282.07−0.93 · n=282.10−0.90 · n=282.33−0.70 · n=282.59−0.57 · n=282.96−1.09 · n=283.13−1.16 · n=283.31−1.36 · n=283.48−0.80 · n=28—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.33−0.23 · n=282.43−0.41 · n=282.56−0.67 · n=282.56−0.90 · n=282.93−1.28 · n=283.41−1.66 · n=283.57−1.93 · n=283.84−1.58 · n=284.05−0.68 · n=28—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN1.80+0.71 · n=281.87+0.84 · n=282.08+0.88 · n=281.96+0.66 · n=282.34+0.54 · n=282.71+0.40 · n=283.53+0.57 · n=283.88−0.14 · n=285.65+0.11 · n=286.20+0.79 · n=28KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.03−0.17 · n=281.22−0.09 · n=281.49+0.17 · n=282.00+0.12 · n=282.13+0.68 · n=282.32+0.91 · n=283.47+0.58 · n=285.04+0.21 · n=285.49−0.31 · n=286.33−1.77 · n=28KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS2.00−1.33 · n=282.27−1.96 · n=282.54−2.25 · n=282.68−2.12 · n=282.96−1.53 · n=283.00−1.83 · n=284.02−1.23 · n=286.06−2.66 · n=286.29−3.68 · n=285.84−3.97 · n=28KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS1.44−0.63 · n=271.47−0.46 · n=271.30−0.04 · n=271.81+0.34 · n=272.87−0.33 · n=283.08−0.07 · n=275.02+0.62 · n=276.34−0.25 · n=276.27−0.39 · n=276.37−0.07 · n=27KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA1.67−0.76 · n=281.61−0.62 · n=281.74−0.78 · n=282.03−0.74 · n=282.32−0.79 · n=282.90−0.84 · n=284.00−0.10 · n=284.51−1.93 · n=286.85−1.69 · n=287.27−2.49 · n=28KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN1.68−0.65 · n=281.72−0.87 · n=282.69−1.24 · n=282.91−1.39 · n=282.86−1.00 · n=286.58−1.96 · n=286.17−2.50 · n=288.23−3.85 · n=289.32−5.55 · n=28—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW1.52−1.29 · n=282.23−2.02 · n=282.72−2.43 · n=282.77−2.47 · n=283.14−2.34 · n=283.30−2.02 · n=283.85−2.13 · n=285.99−3.49 · n=286.51−4.33 · n=286.36−4.55 · n=28KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR1.88−1.51 · n=282.18−1.76 · n=282.01−1.75 · n=282.07−1.56 · n=282.29−1.72 · n=282.52−1.82 · n=283.49−1.71 · n=284.79−3.01 · n=285.73−2.93 · n=286.07−3.14 · n=28KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH2.55−1.53 · n=283.06−1.94 · n=283.38−2.30 · n=283.29−2.15 · n=283.27−1.96 · n=284.12−2.44 · n=284.70−2.07 · n=285.78−3.03 · n=285.78−3.83 · n=286.48−4.41 · n=28KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS3.38−3.38 · n=283.37−3.13 · n=283.22−2.76 · n=283.12−2.62 · n=283.68−2.32 · n=284.88−1.82 · n=285.03−1.33 · n=285.84−2.12 · n=285.79−2.08 · n=28—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX3.44−3.21 · n=284.02−3.85 · n=284.36−4.22 · n=284.52−4.37 · n=284.88−4.45 · n=285.32−4.32 · n=285.76−4.23 · n=285.64−3.74 · n=287.08−3.43 · n=28—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA1.38−0.38 · n=281.65−0.57 · n=281.90−0.57 · n=281.89−0.48 · n=281.90−0.57 · n=282.24−0.49 · n=282.47−0.27 · n=282.37−0.04 · n=282.88−0.12 · n=282.47−0.17 · n=28KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP1.61−1.00 · n=282.14−1.45 · n=282.10−1.00 · n=282.53−1.22 · n=282.67−0.82 · n=284.20−1.70 · n=285.55−3.38 · n=285.60−2.57 · n=286.84−3.41 · n=287.23−4.80 · n=28KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY1.52−1.23 · n=281.89−1.61 · n=282.02−1.73 · n=282.10−1.67 · n=282.18−1.73 · n=282.82−1.45 · n=283.34−1.53 · n=283.55−1.47 · n=284.34−2.47 · n=284.59−1.65 · n=28KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC2.24+2.09 · n=271.93+1.73 · n=271.86+1.72 · n=272.21+1.90 · n=272.53+1.51 · n=272.17+1.46 · n=273.88+1.56 · n=273.85+0.17 · n=275.12+0.63 · n=275.20+0.30 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC1.65−0.65 · n=282.47−1.03 · n=282.82−1.48 · n=283.28−1.62 · n=283.51−1.74 · n=283.54−1.70 · n=284.76−2.85 · n=286.00−2.79 · n=285.81−4.16 · n=287.55−5.19 · n=28KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD1.14−0.51 · n=281.44−0.94 · n=281.68−0.91 · n=282.21−1.34 · n=282.30−0.98 · n=283.55−0.86 · n=283.50−2.26 · n=284.86−2.72 · n=285.45−2.62 · n=285.97−4.54 · n=28KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL2.18−1.04 · n=282.23−0.77 · n=282.07−1.12 · n=282.01−1.06 · n=282.62−1.21 · n=282.36−1.12 · n=283.26−0.87 · n=284.96−2.47 · n=286.15−2.32 · n=285.97−2.50 · n=28KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX2.99−2.78 · n=283.15−2.80 · n=283.19−2.99 · n=283.25−2.86 · n=283.11−2.43 · n=283.73−1.39 · n=284.72−0.94 · n=285.52−0.79 · n=285.59−1.22 · n=28—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN4.45−4.45 · n=284.87−4.87 · n=285.20−5.20 · n=285.36−5.35 · n=285.69−5.54 · n=286.39−5.69 · n=286.17−5.49 · n=286.61−5.29 · n=287.43−4.95 · n=28—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT1.12−0.78 · n=281.47−1.29 · n=281.79−1.46 · n=281.98−1.41 · n=282.46−0.92 · n=282.76−1.36 · n=283.83−0.48 · n=285.69−1.91 · n=285.02−2.72 · n=284.72−2.64 · n=28KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA2.39−2.38 · n=282.43−2.35 · n=282.42−2.29 · n=282.59−2.15 · n=283.01−2.29 · n=283.34−2.85 · n=283.61−2.40 · n=283.61−2.49 · n=283.75−1.12 · n=28—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO3.23−2.33 · n=283.34−2.35 · n=283.53−2.59 · n=283.80−2.90 · n=284.45−3.35 · n=284.84−3.78 · n=285.01−3.88 · n=285.36−3.13 · n=284.90−2.16 · n=28—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN1.38+0.68 · n=281.47+0.77 · n=281.36+0.58 · n=281.53+0.72 · n=281.87+0.55 · n=282.05+0.56 · n=283.45+0.79 · n=284.20−0.71 · n=285.95−0.65 · n=285.96−0.70 · n=28KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.43−2.17 · n=282.13−1.75 · n=281.84−1.39 · n=282.07−1.54 · n=282.40−1.44 · n=282.59−0.68 · n=283.29+0.29 · n=283.62+0.53 · n=284.13+0.24 · n=284.94+0.34 · n=28KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS3.51+2.75 · n=283.79+2.84 · n=283.58+2.61 · n=283.74+2.72 · n=284.48+3.52 · n=285.27+3.95 · n=286.07+4.46 · n=287.34+4.43 · n=286.72+3.47 · n=287.37+2.08 · n=28KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS2.44−2.16 · n=272.31−2.09 · n=272.37−2.03 · n=272.37−2.02 · n=272.36−1.48 · n=282.46−1.40 · n=272.92−1.27 · n=273.60−1.43 · n=274.48−1.61 · n=275.05−0.93 · n=27KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA1.45−1.21 · n=281.42−1.02 · n=281.27−0.94 · n=281.56−0.95 · n=282.36−1.46 · n=282.82−1.82 · n=283.48−1.09 · n=283.10−1.63 · n=285.00−1.57 · n=286.04−0.17 · n=28KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN2.11−0.65 · n=282.14−1.07 · n=282.22−0.96 · n=283.01−1.61 · n=283.73−1.91 · n=283.92−1.97 · n=284.41−3.08 · n=285.25−4.32 · n=285.99−4.71 · n=28—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.48−1.15 · n=281.83−1.47 · n=282.11−1.83 · n=282.29−2.00 · n=282.11−1.61 · n=282.77−0.97 · n=283.98−0.62 · n=284.82−0.93 · n=285.98−2.10 · n=287.09−2.94 · n=28KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR1.23−0.28 · n=281.32−0.64 · n=281.36−0.72 · n=281.59−0.94 · n=282.07−1.15 · n=282.24−1.47 · n=283.23−1.19 · n=283.04−1.62 · n=284.97−1.63 · n=285.22−0.10 · n=28KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.73+0.61 · n=281.81+0.36 · n=281.90+0.16 · n=281.79+0.35 · n=282.58+0.72 · n=282.83+0.93 · n=283.81+1.62 · n=285.17+1.74 · n=285.14+0.90 · n=286.45+0.64 · n=28KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS2.54−2.26 · n=282.74−2.56 · n=282.69−2.55 · n=282.48−2.16 · n=282.37−2.00 · n=282.77−1.91 · n=282.70−1.22 · n=283.52−1.69 · n=284.08−2.02 · n=28—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX1.30−0.13 · n=281.44−0.66 · n=281.65−1.11 · n=281.98−1.23 · n=282.16−1.36 · n=282.92−1.00 · n=283.03−0.95 · n=283.10−0.86 · n=283.34−0.67 · n=28—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.63−1.49 · n=282.13−1.92 · n=282.22−2.22 · n=282.39−2.23 · n=282.54−2.20 · n=282.75−2.13 · n=282.77−2.07 · n=282.72−1.90 · n=282.89−1.84 · n=282.95−1.73 · n=28KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP1.83−1.40 · n=281.55−0.92 · n=281.75−0.85 · n=282.36−0.95 · n=282.23−0.30 · n=283.85−1.27 · n=284.93−3.05 · n=286.22−3.72 · n=286.59−3.05 · n=287.54−4.83 · n=28KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY2.12+0.33 · n=282.12−0.57 · n=281.99−0.72 · n=282.21−0.90 · n=282.25−0.56 · n=282.77+0.14 · n=283.46+0.88 · n=285.10+1.35 · n=285.04+1.60 · n=285.88+1.89 · n=28KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC2.00−1.73 · n=272.31−2.01 · n=272.67−2.15 · n=272.88−2.53 · n=273.40−2.72 · n=273.37−2.89 · n=273.78−2.54 · n=273.71−3.06 · n=274.94−2.65 · n=274.89−1.54 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC2.80+2.09 · n=282.83+1.69 · n=282.97+1.54 · n=283.13+1.86 · n=283.11+1.71 · n=283.64+2.15 · n=285.62+1.33 · n=286.78+0.99 · n=287.81−0.63 · n=287.81−1.73 · n=28KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD1.51−1.28 · n=281.42−1.08 · n=281.98−1.02 · n=282.47−0.99 · n=282.73−0.89 · n=283.26+0.09 · n=284.30−0.33 · n=286.15−1.54 · n=286.01−0.96 · n=286.62−1.88 · n=28KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL2.15−2.10 · n=282.15−2.01 · n=282.18−2.02 · n=282.37−2.31 · n=282.98−2.66 · n=283.30−2.98 · n=283.79−2.65 · n=283.82−2.86 · n=285.66−2.88 · n=285.55−1.27 · n=28KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX4.14−4.03 · n=284.47−4.28 · n=284.56−4.47 · n=284.70−4.39 · n=284.33−4.08 · n=284.75−3.85 · n=285.12−3.20 · n=285.48−2.96 · n=286.33−3.94 · n=28—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN2.06+1.16 · n=281.99+0.66 · n=281.80+0.63 · n=281.88+0.57 · n=282.16+0.54 · n=282.65+0.62 · n=282.87+0.65 · n=282.85+0.55 · n=283.14+0.54 · n=28—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT1.53+0.77 · n=281.83+0.93 · n=281.71+0.76 · n=281.97+0.95 · n=282.40+1.54 · n=283.38+1.92 · n=284.16+2.49 · n=285.59+2.24 · n=285.39+1.50 · n=285.95−0.01 · n=28KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA1.19−0.27 · n=281.43−0.26 · n=281.35−0.35 · n=281.59−0.05 · n=281.80+0.11 · n=282.15−0.12 · n=282.43−0.73 · n=283.01−0.87 · n=282.97−1.11 · n=28—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO2.09+1.22 · n=282.04+0.90 · n=282.08+0.59 · n=281.99+0.45 · n=282.13+0.13 · n=282.57−0.01 · n=282.82−0.48 · n=282.93−0.77 · n=283.06−0.12 · n=28—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN2.21+2.03 · n=282.38+2.15 · n=282.74+2.23 · n=282.36+1.83 · n=282.30+1.45 · n=282.70+1.35 · n=283.71+1.39 · n=283.59+1.18 · n=285.63+1.15 · n=286.63+2.89 · n=28KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.84−2.84 · n=282.77−2.73 · n=282.64−2.51 · n=283.33−2.52 · n=283.29−2.04 · n=283.26−1.80 · n=284.34−2.10 · n=285.54−2.50 · n=285.85−3.03 · n=287.31−4.45 · n=28KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS5.72−5.72 · n=286.32−6.32 · n=286.61−6.60 · n=286.52−6.48 · n=286.67−5.92 · n=286.51−6.26 · n=286.97−5.59 · n=288.87−7.16 · n=289.47−8.18 · n=288.68−8.33 · n=28KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS2.71−2.23 · n=282.52−2.11 · n=282.16−1.69 · n=282.02−1.23 · n=283.06−1.85 · n=284.05−1.96 · n=285.58−1.18 · n=286.45−1.96 · n=286.70−1.64 · n=286.71−1.79 · n=28KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA2.62−2.54 · n=282.56−2.44 · n=282.73−2.60 · n=283.07−2.63 · n=283.18−2.61 · n=283.77−2.66 · n=284.44−1.96 · n=285.21−3.75 · n=287.53−3.50 · n=288.00−4.28 · n=28KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN5.76−5.76 · n=285.98−5.98 · n=286.37−6.24 · n=286.55−6.43 · n=286.41−5.96 · n=289.34−7.07 · n=289.36−7.40 · n=2811.22−8.85 · n=2812.55−10.58 · n=28—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW4.72−4.72 · n=285.45−5.45 · n=285.86−5.86 · n=285.90−5.90 · n=286.28−5.81 · n=285.84−5.45 · n=286.40−5.52 · n=288.49−6.96 · n=289.19−7.79 · n=288.99−8.05 · n=28KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR3.32−3.27 · n=283.54−3.53 · n=283.52−3.52 · n=283.39−3.36 · n=283.68−3.52 · n=284.00−3.55 · n=284.52−3.44 · n=286.05−4.78 · n=286.85−4.70 · n=286.91−4.92 · n=28KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH5.24−5.10 · n=285.87−5.51 · n=286.24−5.91 · n=286.07−5.75 · n=286.27−5.53 · n=286.57−6.05 · n=286.78−5.67 · n=287.49−6.60 · n=288.21−7.40 · n=289.03−7.98 · n=28KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS5.05−5.05 · n=284.87−4.80 · n=284.53−4.43 · n=284.30−4.21 · n=284.57−3.85 · n=285.31−3.49 · n=285.56−2.93 · n=286.32−3.75 · n=286.19−3.65 · n=28—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX5.87−5.85 · n=286.65−6.64 · n=286.83−6.83 · n=287.22−7.20 · n=287.20−7.16 · n=287.48−7.11 · n=287.99−7.02 · n=287.40−6.46 · n=288.70−6.22 · n=28—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA2.36−2.35 · n=282.64−2.57 · n=282.59−2.54 · n=282.61−2.45 · n=282.58−2.46 · n=282.66−2.46 · n=282.65−2.24 · n=282.37−1.86 · n=282.74−2.05 · n=282.68−2.06 · n=28KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP4.43−4.26 · n=284.79−4.70 · n=284.38−4.28 · n=284.71−4.47 · n=284.69−4.08 · n=286.37−5.06 · n=287.82−6.73 · n=287.51−6.00 · n=288.75−6.84 · n=289.21−7.98 · n=28KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY3.55−3.55 · n=283.86−3.86 · n=284.01−4.01 · n=283.96−3.96 · n=284.01−4.01 · n=284.17−3.81 · n=284.53−3.89 · n=284.70−3.83 · n=285.38−4.76 · n=285.46−3.93 · n=28KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC1.09−0.17 · n=281.19−0.53 · n=281.11−0.45 · n=281.35−0.26 · n=281.96−0.41 · n=282.14−0.48 · n=283.57−0.40 · n=284.24−1.84 · n=285.60−1.70 · n=285.15−1.85 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC3.82−3.76 · n=284.61−4.21 · n=284.95−4.63 · n=285.52−4.80 · n=285.52−4.92 · n=285.61−4.81 · n=286.68−6.03 · n=287.93−6.00 · n=288.00−7.31 · n=289.19−8.33 · n=28KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD2.77−2.71 · n=283.29−3.18 · n=283.40−3.19 · n=283.88−3.62 · n=283.94−3.30 · n=284.16−3.17 · n=284.98−4.46 · n=286.04−4.97 · n=286.55−4.97 · n=287.44−6.79 · n=28KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL2.97−2.90 · n=282.91−2.70 · n=283.08−3.05 · n=283.05−2.95 · n=283.53−3.10 · n=283.50−3.05 · n=283.83−2.77 · n=286.18−4.33 · n=287.00−4.21 · n=286.93−4.42 · n=28KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX5.47−5.47 · n=285.45−5.45 · n=285.67−5.67 · n=285.36−5.36 · n=285.17−5.00 · n=285.08−4.07 · n=285.60−3.66 · n=286.82−3.43 · n=286.61−3.90 · n=28—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN6.84−6.84 · n=287.27−7.27 · n=287.59−7.59 · n=287.82−7.82 · n=288.01−8.01 · n=288.55−8.12 · n=288.15−7.96 · n=288.11−7.65 · n=288.76−7.38 · n=28—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT4.34−4.34 · n=284.81−4.81 · n=285.05−5.05 · n=285.01−5.00 · n=285.14−4.48 · n=285.15−4.98 · n=285.73−4.07 · n=287.33−5.57 · n=287.46−6.31 · n=286.76−6.32 · n=28KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA3.80−3.80 · n=283.84−3.84 · n=283.79−3.78 · n=283.83−3.64 · n=284.02−3.64 · n=284.38−4.30 · n=284.72−3.93 · n=284.44−4.02 · n=284.05−2.55 · n=28—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO6.17−6.17 · n=286.12−6.12 · n=286.40−6.40 · n=286.78−6.78 · n=287.26−7.19 · n=287.55−7.55 · n=287.77−7.54 · n=287.09−6.87 · n=286.55−5.91 · n=28—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN1.59−1.25 · n=281.67−1.16 · n=281.55−1.35 · n=281.65−1.17 · n=282.16−1.38 · n=282.34−1.37 · n=283.36−1.18 · n=284.98−2.64 · n=286.15−2.55 · n=286.03−2.67 · n=28KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.96−0.61 · n=281.80−0.22 · n=281.64+0.06 · n=281.68−0.12 · n=281.98+0.12 · n=282.49+0.85 · n=283.52+1.84 · n=284.00+2.09 · n=284.52+1.76 · n=284.99+1.77 · n=28KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS4.76+4.46 · n=284.97+4.59 · n=284.79+4.32 · n=284.94+4.47 · n=285.61+5.22 · n=286.18+5.66 · n=287.43+6.20 · n=288.57+6.14 · n=287.28+5.14 · n=287.67+3.83 · n=28KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS1.24+0.01 · n=281.30+0.02 · n=281.45+0.18 · n=281.49+0.13 · n=282.10+0.59 · n=282.02+0.72 · n=282.57+0.71 · n=283.79+0.42 · n=284.29+0.38 · n=285.22+1.14 · n=28KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA1.05+0.42 · n=281.31+0.61 · n=281.47+0.66 · n=281.79+0.69 · n=281.98+0.18 · n=282.19−0.19 · n=283.38+0.58 · n=282.97+0.04 · n=285.17+0.10 · n=286.09+1.47 · n=28KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN2.52+1.33 · n=282.31+1.02 · n=282.12+1.09 · n=282.61+0.44 · n=283.18+0.14 · n=283.41+0.01 · n=283.75−1.03 · n=283.94−2.41 · n=285.15−2.69 · n=28—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW1.56+0.67 · n=281.72+0.43 · n=281.79+0.10 · n=282.07−0.14 · n=282.35+0.25 · n=283.09+0.93 · n=284.77+1.28 · n=285.29+0.97 · n=285.92−0.24 · n=286.35−1.09 · n=28KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.38+2.10 · n=282.00+1.75 · n=282.07+1.67 · n=281.94+1.48 · n=281.92+1.27 · n=281.78+0.95 · n=283.02+1.16 · n=283.30+0.77 · n=284.81+0.65 · n=285.89+2.15 · n=28KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH3.02+2.66 · n=282.97+2.37 · n=282.93+2.18 · n=283.08+2.29 · n=283.86+2.70 · n=284.10+2.94 · n=285.17+3.64 · n=286.11+3.71 · n=285.61+2.91 · n=286.57+2.53 · n=28KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS1.99−0.62 · n=282.01−0.92 · n=281.96−0.94 · n=281.94−0.59 · n=281.79−0.39 · n=282.50−0.30 · n=282.64+0.21 · n=283.27−0.12 · n=283.77−0.41 · n=28—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.73+1.61 · n=281.52+1.07 · n=281.46+0.66 · n=281.68+0.54 · n=281.98+0.44 · n=282.75+0.77 · n=282.98+0.78 · n=283.13+0.83 · n=283.47+1.03 · n=28—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA1.48+0.26 · n=281.59−0.24 · n=281.52−0.43 · n=281.71−0.48 · n=281.80−0.45 · n=282.19−0.38 · n=282.20−0.29 · n=282.17−0.15 · n=282.32−0.06 · n=282.39+0.05 · n=28KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP2.25+0.92 · n=282.28+1.36 · n=282.47+1.47 · n=282.54+1.37 · n=283.09+1.95 · n=283.59+0.98 · n=284.24−0.98 · n=285.45−1.40 · n=285.33−0.76 · n=285.92−2.51 · n=28KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY3.06+2.33 · n=282.68+1.46 · n=282.29+1.03 · n=282.20+1.03 · n=282.68+1.41 · n=283.58+2.14 · n=284.41+2.99 · n=285.88+3.42 · n=286.21+3.64 · n=286.91+3.82 · n=28KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC1.85−0.27 · n=281.79−0.56 · n=282.25−0.65 · n=282.33−1.01 · n=282.83−1.22 · n=282.67−1.52 · n=283.05−1.12 · n=283.07−1.49 · n=284.35−1.41 · n=285.11−0.29 · n=28KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC3.78+3.61 · n=283.51+3.17 · n=283.52+3.02 · n=283.82+3.37 · n=283.76+3.19 · n=284.14+3.63 · n=285.89+2.81 · n=286.89+2.40 · n=287.38+0.88 · n=287.31−0.27 · n=28KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD1.59+0.22 · n=281.51+0.45 · n=282.19+0.41 · n=282.82+0.51 · n=283.06+0.61 · n=283.74+1.59 · n=284.62+1.17 · n=286.03−0.04 · n=286.09+0.49 · n=286.48−0.37 · n=28KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL1.30−0.08 · n=281.47−0.03 · n=281.55−0.04 · n=281.63−0.29 · n=282.05−0.68 · n=282.43−1.18 · n=283.43−0.64 · n=283.32−0.92 · n=285.70−0.90 · n=286.16+0.58 · n=28KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX3.07−2.73 · n=283.54−2.97 · n=283.73−3.23 · n=283.68−3.05 · n=283.66−2.84 · n=284.22−2.54 · n=284.91−1.90 · n=285.29−1.62 · n=285.82−2.67 · n=28—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN3.09+3.04 · n=282.65+2.54 · n=282.61+2.52 · n=282.61+2.49 · n=282.77+2.46 · n=283.13+2.50 · n=283.26+2.57 · n=282.91+2.47 · n=283.33+2.46 · n=28—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT1.96+1.67 · n=282.34+1.94 · n=282.26+1.74 · n=282.54+1.97 · n=283.17+2.55 · n=283.85+2.89 · n=284.72+3.44 · n=286.17+3.25 · n=285.87+2.48 · n=285.84+1.03 · n=28KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA1.77+1.52 · n=281.85+1.60 · n=281.80+1.48 · n=282.17+1.74 · n=282.40+1.90 · n=282.49+1.70 · n=282.42+1.10 · n=282.93+1.00 · n=282.97+0.75 · n=28—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO2.38+2.18 · n=282.28+1.79 · n=282.30+1.52 · n=282.19+1.34 · n=282.22+1.06 · n=282.65+0.92 · n=282.64+0.45 · n=282.66+0.16 · n=283.06+0.81 · n=28—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN5.16+5.13 · n=285.21+5.21 · n=285.35+5.29 · n=285.02+5.00 · n=284.61+4.59 · n=284.46+4.17 · n=285.48+4.49 · n=285.50+4.28 · n=286.56+4.11 · n=288.22+5.78 · n=28KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · GRAP · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.