CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

GraphCast (IFS init)

graphcast_ifs

source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initGRAP_v100
Window
the last 365 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.95−2.60 · n=2563.21−2.78 · n=2553.34−2.85 · n=2543.51−2.96 · n=2533.72−2.97 · n=2524.09−2.92 · n=2514.47−2.85 · n=2494.87−2.94 · n=2485.37−3.22 · n=2475.93−2.88 · n=246KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS2.56−0.22 · n=2562.76−0.45 · n=2552.87−0.56 · n=2543.04−0.55 · n=2533.27−0.52 · n=2523.69−0.47 · n=2514.21−0.43 · n=2494.79−0.74 · n=2485.46−0.82 · n=2475.83−0.95 · n=246KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS2.74−1.60 · n=2432.91−1.63 · n=2422.91−1.49 · n=2413.10−1.38 · n=2393.47−1.26 · n=2404.08−1.23 · n=2374.69−1.11 · n=2355.20−1.25 · n=2345.85−1.59 · n=2336.60−1.90 · n=233KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA2.72−2.05 · n=2562.99−2.21 · n=2553.16−2.20 · n=2543.34−2.14 · n=2533.70−2.16 · n=2524.36−2.13 · n=2514.88−1.64 · n=2495.17−1.74 · n=2485.99−2.04 · n=2476.68−1.92 · n=246KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN2.72−0.55 · n=2562.96−0.90 · n=2553.20−1.06 · n=2543.41−1.00 · n=2533.89−0.89 · n=2524.79−0.87 · n=2505.49−1.22 · n=2496.61−1.65 · n=2487.21−2.19 · n=247—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW1.94−1.14 · n=2532.40−1.71 · n=2522.79−2.03 · n=2513.02−2.15 · n=2503.30−2.17 · n=2503.76−2.10 · n=2484.32−2.24 · n=2474.99−2.60 · n=2466.06−2.47 · n=2466.27−2.46 · n=244KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR2.89−2.43 · n=2553.23−2.78 · n=2543.31−2.72 · n=2533.42−2.65 · n=2523.77−2.67 · n=2514.23−2.49 · n=2504.71−2.23 · n=2485.14−2.26 · n=2476.03−2.60 · n=2466.86−2.74 · n=245KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.12−1.05 · n=2572.36−1.39 · n=2562.52−1.56 · n=2552.69−1.61 · n=2542.97−1.76 · n=2533.29−1.72 · n=2523.71−1.64 · n=2504.23−1.74 · n=2494.59−1.84 · n=2485.00−1.69 · n=247KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS3.02−2.62 · n=2563.02−2.53 · n=2553.00−2.45 · n=2553.02−2.25 · n=2543.22−2.17 · n=2533.51−2.18 · n=2513.97−2.32 · n=2504.63−2.70 · n=2495.33−3.04 · n=248—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX1.91−1.29 · n=2572.08−1.47 · n=2562.18−1.54 · n=2552.26−1.54 · n=2542.39−1.48 · n=2532.63−1.50 · n=2512.85−1.54 · n=2503.08−1.63 · n=2493.41−1.78 · n=248—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA1.99−1.38 · n=2562.30−1.74 · n=2542.44−1.81 · n=2532.52−1.87 · n=2522.65−1.94 · n=2512.87−1.99 · n=2503.04−2.05 · n=2483.25−1.97 · n=2483.40−1.92 · n=2463.67−1.91 · n=245KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP2.82−2.30 · n=2573.33−2.83 · n=2563.59−2.86 · n=2553.89−2.81 · n=2544.03−2.65 · n=2534.65−2.32 · n=2525.29−2.54 · n=2516.11−2.71 · n=2507.00−2.41 · n=2497.43−2.39 · n=248KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY1.95−0.47 · n=2572.08−0.83 · n=2562.20−0.97 · n=2552.33−1.06 · n=2542.55−1.23 · n=2532.86−1.28 · n=2523.14−1.22 · n=2503.62−1.32 · n=2493.93−1.35 · n=2484.21−1.02 · n=247KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC2.61−1.56 · n=2552.92−1.96 · n=2543.03−1.89 · n=2533.21−1.84 · n=2523.50−1.87 · n=2513.98−1.69 · n=2504.58−1.47 · n=2494.96−1.46 · n=2485.83−1.74 · n=2476.54−1.93 · n=247KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC2.68+0.48 · n=2562.87−0.08 · n=2553.12−0.39 · n=2543.33−0.52 · n=2533.73−0.68 · n=2524.25−0.65 · n=2515.05−0.97 · n=2495.96−1.31 · n=2486.87−1.07 · n=2477.61−1.58 · n=246KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD2.22−1.38 · n=2572.58−1.66 · n=2562.88−1.74 · n=2553.14−1.70 · n=2543.52−1.59 · n=2534.24−1.45 · n=2524.91−1.24 · n=2505.83−1.69 · n=2496.66−1.56 · n=2487.31−1.60 · n=247KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL3.24−2.78 · n=2573.37−2.86 · n=2563.45−2.79 · n=2553.61−2.71 · n=2544.02−2.70 · n=2534.42−2.55 · n=2524.88−2.16 · n=2505.34−2.16 · n=2496.12−2.49 · n=2486.80−2.49 · n=247KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX3.05−2.55 · n=2573.38−2.73 · n=2563.51−2.83 · n=2553.60−2.79 · n=2543.79−2.84 · n=2534.01−2.87 · n=2514.33−2.86 · n=2504.85−3.10 · n=2495.47−3.49 · n=248—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN2.46−1.60 · n=2562.56−1.74 · n=2552.62−1.79 · n=2542.67−1.82 · n=2532.77−1.82 · n=2522.94−1.80 · n=2503.05−1.75 · n=2493.26−1.82 · n=2483.48−1.90 · n=247—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT1.99−0.88 · n=2572.17−1.08 · n=2562.32−1.16 · n=2552.49−1.16 · n=2542.72−1.15 · n=2533.12−1.11 · n=2523.64−1.02 · n=2514.21−1.28 · n=2504.75−1.44 · n=2495.05−1.59 · n=248KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA2.11−1.06 · n=2572.26−1.26 · n=2562.40−1.43 · n=2552.51−1.31 · n=2542.76−1.32 · n=2532.96−1.42 · n=2513.51−1.41 · n=2503.90−1.45 · n=2494.21−1.42 · n=248—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.14−1.31 · n=2572.31−1.55 · n=2562.50−1.79 · n=2552.59−1.88 · n=2542.74−2.01 · n=2533.01−2.26 · n=2513.28−2.45 · n=2503.58−2.71 · n=2493.85−2.76 · n=248—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN1.86+0.13 · n=2522.01+0.09 · n=2512.24+0.16 · n=2502.46+0.26 · n=2492.92+0.27 · n=2483.50+0.47 · n=2474.27+0.79 · n=2454.86+0.74 · n=2445.69+0.49 · n=2436.62+0.34 · n=242KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 5 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.11−1.71 · n=2562.42−1.99 · n=2552.65−2.11 · n=2543.04−2.31 · n=2533.24−2.22 · n=2523.65−2.03 · n=2514.29−2.27 · n=2494.87−2.46 · n=2485.07−2.63 · n=2475.91−2.46 · n=246KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS2.85−2.61 · n=2563.33−3.02 · n=2553.52−3.16 · n=2543.69−3.17 · n=2533.76−3.12 · n=2524.12−3.21 · n=2514.69−3.17 · n=2495.26−3.43 · n=2485.84−3.50 · n=2476.01−3.64 · n=246KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS1.99+0.03 · n=2432.18+0.10 · n=2422.30+0.24 · n=2412.69+0.39 · n=2393.57+0.69 · n=2404.35+0.68 · n=2375.10+0.76 · n=2356.04+0.61 · n=2346.69+0.17 · n=2337.06−0.08 · n=233KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.01−1.02 · n=2562.35−1.25 · n=2552.66−1.29 · n=2542.83−1.11 · n=2533.35−1.08 · n=2523.98−0.93 · n=2514.69−0.52 · n=2495.29−0.51 · n=2486.11−1.09 · n=2476.54−1.24 · n=246KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN2.34−1.51 · n=2562.71−1.87 · n=2552.98−1.99 · n=2543.14−1.93 · n=2533.56−1.79 · n=2524.83−1.78 · n=2505.58−2.21 · n=2497.22−2.78 · n=2487.79−3.42 · n=247—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW2.27−2.00 · n=2532.96−2.78 · n=2523.43−3.16 · n=2513.61−3.34 · n=2503.82−3.28 · n=2504.26−3.30 · n=2484.77−3.53 · n=2475.64−3.77 · n=2466.38−3.72 · n=2466.49−3.80 · n=244KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR2.41−1.76 · n=2552.71−2.06 · n=2542.83−1.94 · n=2532.86−1.83 · n=2523.44−1.84 · n=2514.15−1.50 · n=2504.70−1.29 · n=2485.35−1.22 · n=2476.32−1.72 · n=2467.17−2.19 · n=245KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH2.05−1.42 · n=2572.48−1.99 · n=2562.70−2.09 · n=2552.82−2.15 · n=2543.13−2.37 · n=2533.38−2.38 · n=2523.77−2.28 · n=2504.25−2.39 · n=2494.52−2.43 · n=2484.83−2.28 · n=247KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS3.09−2.98 · n=2562.88−2.65 · n=2552.87−2.54 · n=2552.88−2.31 · n=2543.23−2.28 · n=2533.61−2.27 · n=2514.27−2.59 · n=2504.96−3.03 · n=2495.78−3.39 · n=248—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX2.15−1.69 · n=2572.34−1.81 · n=2562.41−1.87 · n=2552.57−1.87 · n=2542.75−1.85 · n=2533.06−1.94 · n=2513.37−2.01 · n=2503.57−2.14 · n=2494.00−2.34 · n=248—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA1.64−0.83 · n=2561.83−1.02 · n=2542.02−1.05 · n=2532.13−1.11 · n=2522.26−1.25 · n=2512.60−1.21 · n=2502.91−1.38 · n=2482.95−1.13 · n=2483.13−0.93 · n=2463.31−0.99 · n=245KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP2.75−2.39 · n=2573.36−3.03 · n=2563.57−3.00 · n=2553.85−2.98 · n=2544.19−2.85 · n=2534.67−2.28 · n=2525.60−2.61 · n=2516.14−2.66 · n=2506.93−2.56 · n=2497.71−2.39 · n=248KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY1.87−1.37 · n=2572.12−1.56 · n=2562.21−1.64 · n=2552.40−1.68 · n=2542.71−1.97 · n=2533.06−1.94 · n=2523.35−2.05 · n=2503.74−2.27 · n=2494.18−2.26 · n=2484.36−1.99 · n=247KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC1.70+0.15 · n=2551.95−0.19 · n=2542.12−0.11 · n=2532.34−0.01 · n=2522.88−0.02 · n=2513.62+0.31 · n=2504.24+0.46 · n=2495.06+0.61 · n=2485.89+0.15 · n=2476.53−0.36 · n=247KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC2.37−1.43 · n=2562.88−2.04 · n=2553.31−2.51 · n=2543.57−2.58 · n=2533.86−2.72 · n=2524.57−2.69 · n=2515.25−3.25 · n=2496.25−3.52 · n=2487.07−3.31 · n=2478.17−3.97 · n=246KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD2.07−1.22 · n=2572.41−1.51 · n=2562.76−1.60 · n=2553.01−1.57 · n=2543.63−1.56 · n=2534.31−1.51 · n=2525.07−1.39 · n=2506.10−1.82 · n=2496.77−1.91 · n=2487.41−2.09 · n=247KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL2.26−1.48 · n=2572.53−1.63 · n=2562.69−1.60 · n=2552.81−1.46 · n=2543.41−1.35 · n=2533.88−1.15 · n=2524.62−0.79 · n=2505.37−0.68 · n=2495.98−1.21 · n=2486.78−1.58 · n=247KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX2.58−2.30 · n=2572.80−2.43 · n=2563.03−2.57 · n=2553.10−2.50 · n=2543.34−2.60 · n=2533.54−2.60 · n=2514.02−2.63 · n=2504.72−3.00 · n=2495.39−3.50 · n=248—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN3.34−3.33 · n=2563.51−3.51 · n=2553.60−3.56 · n=2543.69−3.61 · n=2533.85−3.65 · n=2524.00−3.69 · n=2504.05−3.61 · n=2494.27−3.73 · n=2484.58−3.85 · n=247—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT2.43−2.09 · n=2572.83−2.46 · n=2563.03−2.59 · n=2553.17−2.55 · n=2543.45−2.61 · n=2533.78−2.66 · n=2524.34−2.57 · n=2514.86−2.72 · n=2505.41−2.97 · n=2495.59−3.04 · n=248KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA2.51−2.06 · n=2572.73−2.18 · n=2562.88−2.35 · n=2552.97−2.22 · n=2543.28−2.21 · n=2533.56−2.52 · n=2514.41−2.51 · n=2504.94−2.47 · n=2495.09−2.44 · n=248—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO2.95−2.43 · n=2573.15−2.57 · n=2563.36−2.76 · n=2553.47−2.83 · n=2543.56−2.88 · n=2533.94−3.20 · n=2514.28−3.46 · n=2504.67−3.74 · n=2495.09−3.86 · n=248—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN1.81+1.02 · n=2522.03+0.90 · n=2512.32+0.94 · n=2502.49+1.06 · n=2493.06+1.18 · n=2483.81+1.48 · n=2474.74+1.77 · n=2455.46+1.84 · n=2446.10+1.42 · n=2436.89+0.94 · n=242KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.23−1.99 · n=2562.36−2.09 · n=2552.47−2.18 · n=2542.59−2.25 · n=2532.74−2.27 · n=2523.20−2.31 · n=2513.52−2.12 · n=2493.88−2.03 · n=2484.35−2.45 · n=2474.91−1.97 · n=246KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS2.95+2.16 · n=2563.00+2.18 · n=2553.02+2.14 · n=2543.14+2.16 · n=2533.31+2.07 · n=2523.76+2.26 · n=2514.16+2.36 · n=2494.63+2.01 · n=2485.45+1.98 · n=2475.81+1.84 · n=246KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS2.71−2.18 · n=2432.87−2.27 · n=2422.82−2.16 · n=2412.86−1.97 · n=2392.87−1.97 · n=2403.49−1.72 · n=2374.03−1.82 · n=2354.16−2.03 · n=2344.83−2.29 · n=2335.91−2.44 · n=233KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA2.26−1.74 · n=2562.48−1.92 · n=2552.56−1.87 · n=2542.73−1.82 · n=2533.05−1.90 · n=2523.62−1.84 · n=2514.19−1.52 · n=2494.37−1.55 · n=2485.26−1.75 · n=2475.80−1.60 · n=246KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN2.67+0.29 · n=2562.80−0.10 · n=2553.01−0.24 · n=2543.17−0.36 · n=2533.53−0.29 · n=2523.99−0.26 · n=2504.38−0.53 · n=2495.06−0.68 · n=2485.41−1.05 · n=247—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.29−0.16 · n=2531.54−0.54 · n=2521.79−0.85 · n=2512.05−0.95 · n=2502.26−1.02 · n=2502.74−0.80 · n=2483.30−0.79 · n=2473.86−1.20 · n=2465.13−1.08 · n=2465.05−0.89 · n=244KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR2.16−1.81 · n=2552.56−2.18 · n=2542.61−2.17 · n=2532.73−2.13 · n=2523.07−2.16 · n=2513.28−1.96 · n=2503.73−1.80 · n=2483.98−1.77 · n=2474.97−2.25 · n=2465.90−2.02 · n=245KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.50+0.14 · n=2571.58−0.05 · n=2561.67−0.23 · n=2551.86−0.27 · n=2542.19−0.41 · n=2532.52−0.37 · n=2522.85−0.17 · n=2503.51−0.27 · n=2494.22−0.45 · n=2484.89−0.33 · n=247KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS3.03−2.31 · n=2563.25−2.55 · n=2553.26−2.43 · n=2553.20−2.28 · n=2543.12−2.06 · n=2533.40−2.10 · n=2513.68−2.07 · n=2504.21−2.39 · n=2494.82−2.59 · n=248—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX1.41−0.68 · n=2571.58−0.93 · n=2561.65−1.01 · n=2551.72−1.04 · n=2541.71−0.97 · n=2531.93−0.89 · n=2512.12−0.92 · n=2502.32−0.96 · n=2492.51−1.01 · n=248—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.66−0.99 · n=2562.01−1.51 · n=2542.09−1.61 · n=2532.22−1.69 · n=2522.30−1.72 · n=2512.53−1.76 · n=2502.63−1.79 · n=2483.06−1.83 · n=2483.19−1.82 · n=2463.62−1.88 · n=245KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP2.36−2.06 · n=2572.83−2.54 · n=2563.03−2.53 · n=2553.42−2.48 · n=2543.26−2.25 · n=2533.81−2.11 · n=2524.37−2.20 · n=2515.37−2.38 · n=2506.51−1.88 · n=2496.71−2.03 · n=248KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY1.76+0.97 · n=2571.75+0.47 · n=2561.83+0.36 · n=2551.92+0.24 · n=2541.99+0.21 · n=2532.22+0.09 · n=2522.52+0.31 · n=2503.13+0.25 · n=2493.41+0.07 · n=2483.91+0.49 · n=247KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC2.55−1.93 · n=2552.90−2.34 · n=2542.95−2.30 · n=2533.10−2.29 · n=2523.39−2.34 · n=2513.54−2.12 · n=2504.10−2.05 · n=2494.22−1.94 · n=2485.22−2.40 · n=2475.98−2.22 · n=247KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC3.11+2.42 · n=2562.93+1.89 · n=2553.06+1.76 · n=2543.15+1.58 · n=2533.45+1.49 · n=2523.74+1.54 · n=2514.55+1.61 · n=2495.22+1.18 · n=2486.10+1.47 · n=2476.32+0.83 · n=246KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD1.62−1.02 · n=2571.99−1.28 · n=2562.31−1.41 · n=2552.54−1.35 · n=2542.81−1.00 · n=2533.30−0.94 · n=2523.93−0.69 · n=2504.88−1.36 · n=2495.64−1.00 · n=2485.92−0.65 · n=247KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL2.95−2.75 · n=2573.03−2.78 · n=2562.96−2.65 · n=2553.08−2.55 · n=2543.39−2.65 · n=2533.72−2.52 · n=2524.15−2.29 · n=2504.49−2.13 · n=2495.50−2.49 · n=2486.01−2.30 · n=247KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX3.63−3.38 · n=2573.97−3.60 · n=2564.08−3.72 · n=2554.18−3.73 · n=2544.17−3.66 · n=2534.40−3.70 · n=2514.52−3.68 · n=2504.92−3.83 · n=2495.43−4.02 · n=248—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN2.17+0.20 · n=2562.19+0.02 · n=2552.14+0.02 · n=2542.12+0.02 · n=2532.16+0.06 · n=2522.28+0.13 · n=2502.35+0.22 · n=2492.51+0.16 · n=2482.60+0.15 · n=247—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT1.59−0.24 · n=2571.65−0.24 · n=2561.67−0.27 · n=2551.82−0.23 · n=2541.99−0.21 · n=2532.40−0.10 · n=2522.79+0.13 · n=2513.45−0.24 · n=2504.14−0.32 · n=2494.50−0.55 · n=248KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA1.57−0.52 · n=2571.65−0.74 · n=2561.79−0.91 · n=2551.88−0.81 · n=2542.00−0.78 · n=2532.21−0.81 · n=2512.56−0.73 · n=2502.81−0.77 · n=2493.29−0.78 · n=248—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO1.50−0.52 · n=2571.66−0.90 · n=2561.85−1.15 · n=2551.98−1.31 · n=2542.19−1.47 · n=2532.40−1.60 · n=2512.59−1.78 · n=2502.85−2.06 · n=2492.92−2.05 · n=248—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN1.49+0.50 · n=2521.70+0.52 · n=2511.90+0.59 · n=2502.14+0.68 · n=2492.40+0.64 · n=2482.93+0.81 · n=2473.68+0.99 · n=2454.02+1.07 · n=2445.06+0.65 · n=2436.05+0.78 · n=242KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL4.93−4.93 · n=2575.23−5.21 · n=2565.40−5.36 · n=2555.68−5.53 · n=2545.74−5.45 · n=2535.77−5.29 · n=2526.22−5.51 · n=2516.67−5.70 · n=2506.97−5.89 · n=2497.72−5.76 · n=248KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS6.36−6.33 · n=2576.82−6.73 · n=2566.97−6.85 · n=2557.01−6.88 · n=2547.07−6.84 · n=2537.35−6.93 · n=2527.68−6.88 · n=2518.22−7.17 · n=2508.54−7.21 · n=2498.77−7.33 · n=248KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS2.88−2.17 · n=2562.95−2.10 · n=2553.05−2.00 · n=2553.28−1.72 · n=2533.84−1.38 · n=2524.84−1.45 · n=2515.22−1.38 · n=2506.11−1.34 · n=2496.93−1.69 · n=2487.34−2.10 · n=247KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA3.89−3.69 · n=2574.23−3.90 · n=2564.45−3.90 · n=2554.39−3.74 · n=2544.80−3.73 · n=2535.28−3.59 · n=2525.82−3.20 · n=2516.26−3.17 · n=2507.26−3.82 · n=2497.43−3.91 · n=248KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN5.74−5.74 · n=2576.16−6.10 · n=2566.29−6.22 · n=2556.24−6.09 · n=2546.48−6.01 · n=2537.25−6.01 · n=2527.91−6.37 · n=2519.34−6.97 · n=25010.05−7.62 · n=249—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW5.28−5.25 · n=2576.04−5.99 · n=2566.45−6.38 · n=2556.68−6.57 · n=2546.72−6.55 · n=2537.00−6.52 · n=2527.53−6.79 · n=2518.20−7.00 · n=2508.78−6.97 · n=2498.88−7.01 · n=248KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR4.10−4.04 · n=2574.42−4.32 · n=2564.36−4.22 · n=2554.31−4.11 · n=2544.66−4.07 · n=2535.18−3.77 · n=2525.62−3.60 · n=2516.15−3.52 · n=2507.12−3.98 · n=2497.89−4.45 · n=248KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH5.12−5.06 · n=2575.68−5.62 · n=2565.85−5.75 · n=2555.88−5.75 · n=2546.19−5.96 · n=2536.30−5.98 · n=2526.51−5.88 · n=2516.72−5.95 · n=2507.07−6.01 · n=2497.23−5.88 · n=248KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS4.42−4.37 · n=2574.07−4.01 · n=2564.00−3.89 · n=2553.90−3.69 · n=2544.14−3.62 · n=2534.35−3.62 · n=2525.01−3.94 · n=2515.60−4.38 · n=2506.36−4.70 · n=249—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX4.73−4.70 · n=2574.85−4.82 · n=2564.92−4.89 · n=2555.00−4.92 · n=2545.03−4.92 · n=2535.21−5.01 · n=2525.45−5.08 · n=2515.51−5.21 · n=2505.81−5.39 · n=249—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA3.24−3.19 · n=2573.47−3.41 · n=2563.52−3.40 · n=2553.61−3.48 · n=2543.76−3.63 · n=2533.82−3.58 · n=2524.01−3.76 · n=2514.00−3.48 · n=2503.96−3.32 · n=2494.27−3.36 · n=248KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP4.94−4.88 · n=2575.54−5.50 · n=2565.58−5.45 · n=2555.77−5.42 · n=2545.93−5.32 · n=2536.16−4.78 · n=2526.95−5.13 · n=2517.37−5.18 · n=2508.17−5.06 · n=2498.81−4.87 · n=248KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY4.10−4.08 · n=2574.34−4.28 · n=2564.45−4.35 · n=2554.61−4.40 · n=2544.89−4.70 · n=2535.00−4.66 · n=2525.26−4.78 · n=2515.45−4.96 · n=2505.74−4.94 · n=2495.87−4.64 · n=248KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC2.28−1.87 · n=2572.58−2.19 · n=2562.66−2.10 · n=2552.74−2.00 · n=2543.22−1.95 · n=2533.91−1.64 · n=2524.44−1.49 · n=2515.14−1.40 · n=2506.19−1.86 · n=2496.80−2.39 · n=248KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC5.37−5.17 · n=2575.96−5.78 · n=2566.40−6.21 · n=2556.70−6.30 · n=2546.82−6.45 · n=2537.27−6.40 · n=2527.99−6.95 · n=2518.94−7.18 · n=2509.41−7.03 · n=24910.33−7.59 · n=248KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD3.74−3.58 · n=2574.12−3.90 · n=2564.31−3.97 · n=2554.44−3.97 · n=2544.81−3.96 · n=2535.28−3.92 · n=2526.06−3.81 · n=2517.08−4.19 · n=2507.67−4.25 · n=2498.30−4.49 · n=248KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL4.06−3.89 · n=2574.22−4.01 · n=2564.27−3.99 · n=2554.29−3.86 · n=2544.68−3.75 · n=2535.00−3.54 · n=2525.58−3.20 · n=2516.17−3.13 · n=2506.95−3.68 · n=2497.51−4.03 · n=248KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX4.29−4.21 · n=2574.46−4.37 · n=2564.64−4.52 · n=2554.60−4.42 · n=2544.84−4.53 · n=2534.97−4.53 · n=2525.30−4.60 · n=2515.98−4.92 · n=2506.58−5.43 · n=249—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN5.93−5.93 · n=2576.14−6.14 · n=2566.20−6.20 · n=2556.27−6.26 · n=2546.34−6.31 · n=2536.42−6.33 · n=2526.36−6.28 · n=2516.50−6.36 · n=2506.70−6.48 · n=249—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT5.48−5.43 · n=2575.87−5.80 · n=2565.97−5.90 · n=2555.94−5.87 · n=2546.11−5.91 · n=2536.29−6.01 · n=2526.61−5.86 · n=2516.95−6.05 · n=2507.45−6.29 · n=2497.61−6.35 · n=248KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA3.61−3.50 · n=2573.82−3.62 · n=2564.05−3.81 · n=2553.96−3.68 · n=2544.17−3.65 · n=2534.41−3.97 · n=2525.16−3.98 · n=2515.50−3.93 · n=2505.58−3.88 · n=249—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO5.55−5.52 · n=2575.78−5.72 · n=2565.98−5.91 · n=2556.09−5.97 · n=2546.17−6.02 · n=2536.54−6.34 · n=2526.82−6.59 · n=2517.07−6.87 · n=2507.48−7.02 · n=249—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN2.02−1.38 · n=2572.34−1.45 · n=2562.50−1.41 · n=2552.64−1.29 · n=2543.24−1.21 · n=2533.84−0.92 · n=2524.60−0.64 · n=2515.33−0.59 · n=2506.22−1.10 · n=2497.01−1.46 · n=248KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.68−0.24 · n=2561.72−0.38 · n=2551.89−0.44 · n=2541.98−0.53 · n=2542.11−0.54 · n=2522.65−0.58 · n=2513.19−0.39 · n=2503.57−0.32 · n=2493.95−0.74 · n=2484.55−0.28 · n=247KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS4.81+4.55 · n=2574.78+4.58 · n=2564.78+4.52 · n=2554.85+4.50 · n=2544.86+4.39 · n=2535.21+4.57 · n=2525.72+4.60 · n=2516.01+4.28 · n=2506.64+4.21 · n=2496.73+4.09 · n=248KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS1.97−0.03 · n=2562.06−0.09 · n=2552.03+0.04 · n=2552.17+0.18 · n=2532.35+0.24 · n=2522.95+0.47 · n=2513.48+0.32 · n=2503.75+0.20 · n=2494.30−0.05 · n=2485.39−0.10 · n=247KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA1.90+0.39 · n=2572.00+0.26 · n=2562.07+0.38 · n=2552.20+0.38 · n=2542.53+0.28 · n=2532.93+0.35 · n=2523.61+0.65 · n=2513.87+0.66 · n=2504.87+0.43 · n=2495.56+0.65 · n=248KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN4.03+3.59 · n=2573.73+3.19 · n=2563.75+3.03 · n=2553.80+2.98 · n=2544.10+3.07 · n=2534.48+3.06 · n=2524.73+2.82 · n=2515.10+2.63 · n=2505.48+2.23 · n=249—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW2.05+1.49 · n=2572.09+1.15 · n=2562.15+0.84 · n=2552.34+0.69 · n=2542.55+0.61 · n=2532.92+0.82 · n=2523.47+0.81 · n=2513.83+0.40 · n=2505.06+0.48 · n=2495.02+0.66 · n=248KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.01+0.80 · n=2571.93+0.47 · n=2561.99+0.51 · n=2552.17+0.53 · n=2542.25+0.48 · n=2532.63+0.73 · n=2523.25+0.77 · n=2513.61+0.96 · n=2504.54+0.48 · n=2495.55+0.67 · n=248KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH2.30+1.65 · n=2572.31+1.47 · n=2562.27+1.31 · n=2552.41+1.24 · n=2542.57+1.06 · n=2532.88+1.11 · n=2523.11+1.28 · n=2513.72+1.23 · n=2504.32+1.05 · n=2495.11+1.16 · n=248KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS2.38−0.49 · n=2572.53−0.73 · n=2562.54−0.61 · n=2552.60−0.46 · n=2542.65−0.26 · n=2533.01−0.27 · n=2523.35−0.29 · n=2513.80−0.60 · n=2504.31−0.80 · n=249—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.69+0.87 · n=2571.73+0.64 · n=2561.71+0.56 · n=2551.74+0.53 · n=2541.81+0.59 · n=2532.02+0.69 · n=2522.17+0.66 · n=2512.39+0.63 · n=2502.61+0.57 · n=249—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA1.73+0.98 · n=2571.77+0.47 · n=2561.77+0.39 · n=2551.85+0.30 · n=2541.93+0.28 · n=2532.23+0.26 · n=2522.30+0.22 · n=2512.59+0.17 · n=2502.81+0.20 · n=2493.14+0.14 · n=248KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP2.27−0.10 · n=2572.52−0.55 · n=2562.70−0.59 · n=2553.10−0.50 · n=2543.10−0.32 · n=2533.48−0.17 · n=2524.03−0.32 · n=2515.04−0.43 · n=2506.10+0.08 · n=2496.31−0.11 · n=248KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY3.11+2.92 · n=2572.76+2.41 · n=2562.71+2.25 · n=2552.61+2.11 · n=2542.69+2.11 · n=2532.84+1.98 · n=2523.16+2.22 · n=2513.51+2.15 · n=2503.72+1.97 · n=2494.59+2.36 · n=248KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.46−0.04 · n=2572.45−0.44 · n=2562.51−0.39 · n=2552.64−0.36 · n=2542.81−0.40 · n=2533.00−0.17 · n=2523.51−0.14 · n=2513.62+0.04 · n=2504.58−0.43 · n=2495.55−0.26 · n=248KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC4.99+4.85 · n=2574.51+4.28 · n=2564.55+4.14 · n=2554.52+3.93 · n=2544.63+3.86 · n=2534.73+3.92 · n=2525.45+3.90 · n=2515.83+3.53 · n=2506.86+3.72 · n=2496.71+3.04 · n=248KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD2.19+1.19 · n=2572.24+0.97 · n=2562.47+0.83 · n=2552.79+0.91 · n=2543.16+1.24 · n=2533.51+1.30 · n=2524.08+1.52 · n=2515.00+0.87 · n=2505.96+1.25 · n=2496.18+1.61 · n=248KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL2.01−0.43 · n=2572.22−0.45 · n=2562.17−0.30 · n=2552.24−0.21 · n=2542.49−0.34 · n=2532.82−0.20 · n=2523.54+0.02 · n=2513.97+0.23 · n=2504.90−0.14 · n=2495.79+0.03 · n=248KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX2.25−1.40 · n=2572.56−1.59 · n=2562.63−1.70 · n=2552.76−1.72 · n=2542.82−1.64 · n=2533.10−1.66 · n=2523.30−1.65 · n=2513.76−1.80 · n=2504.26−2.02 · n=249—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN2.72+1.73 · n=2572.62+1.53 · n=2562.61+1.53 · n=2552.58+1.54 · n=2542.60+1.56 · n=2532.73+1.62 · n=2522.79+1.71 · n=2512.87+1.67 · n=2503.02+1.65 · n=249—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT2.17+1.27 · n=2572.11+1.28 · n=2562.06+1.25 · n=2552.27+1.30 · n=2542.40+1.27 · n=2532.80+1.41 · n=2523.24+1.57 · n=2513.83+1.25 · n=2504.49+1.15 · n=2494.69+0.96 · n=248KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA1.75+1.08 · n=2571.60+0.84 · n=2561.68+0.68 · n=2551.81+0.75 · n=2541.95+0.81 · n=2532.23+0.78 · n=2522.45+0.88 · n=2512.80+0.82 · n=2503.27+0.79 · n=249—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO1.51+0.74 · n=2571.46+0.37 · n=2561.56+0.13 · n=2551.62−0.04 · n=2541.84−0.18 · n=2532.10−0.32 · n=2522.24−0.50 · n=2512.40−0.79 · n=2502.52−0.77 · n=249—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN3.72+3.41 · n=2573.73+3.48 · n=2563.80+3.56 · n=2553.90+3.63 · n=2543.90+3.56 · n=2534.26+3.74 · n=2524.90+3.90 · n=2515.33+4.16 · n=2505.73+3.65 · n=2496.80+3.84 · n=248KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · GRAP · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.