GraphCast (IFS init) (graphcast_ifs)
source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 5.67-5.65 · n=34 | 5.85-5.85 · n=33 | 5.86-5.86 · n=32 | 5.93-5.93 · n=31 | 5.52-5.51 · n=31 | 5.31-5.29 · n=31 | 5.99-5.78 · n=30 | 6.35-6.18 · n=29 | 6.29-5.66 · n=28 | 6.92-5.54 · n=27 | |
| KAUS | 7.34-7.34 · n=34 | 7.72-7.72 · n=33 | 7.62-7.62 · n=32 | 7.47-7.47 · n=31 | 7.22-7.22 · n=31 | 7.52-7.52 · n=31 | 7.50-7.50 · n=30 | 7.05-7.05 · n=29 | 6.26-5.90 · n=28 | 7.56-5.84 · n=27 | |
| KBOS | 2.82-2.46 · n=33 | 2.79-2.37 · n=33 | 3.20-2.72 · n=32 | 3.59-2.54 · n=30 | 4.31-2.03 · n=30 | 4.28-1.40 · n=30 | 4.64-1.54 · n=29 | 4.71-1.64 · n=28 | 5.05-1.60 · n=27 | 5.84-2.67 · n=26 | |
| KDCA | 4.33-4.33 · n=34 | 4.62-4.62 · n=33 | 4.53-4.53 · n=32 | 4.57-4.27 · n=31 | 4.57-3.72 · n=31 | 4.96-3.06 · n=31 | 5.37-3.37 · n=30 | 5.13-3.35 · n=29 | 6.13-4.04 · n=28 | 6.78-4.29 · n=27 | |
| KDEN | 5.98-5.98 · n=34 | 6.26-6.26 · n=33 | 6.64-6.61 · n=32 | 6.65-6.65 · n=31 | 7.08-7.08 · n=31 | 7.61-7.61 · n=31 | 7.77-7.62 · n=30 | 8.67-8.20 · n=29 | 9.28-8.76 · n=28 | — | |
| KDFW | 5.23-5.15 · n=34 | 6.26-6.22 · n=33 | 7.03-7.03 · n=32 | 7.19-7.19 · n=31 | 7.16-7.09 · n=31 | 7.71-7.50 · n=31 | 8.27-8.27 · n=30 | 8.15-7.93 · n=29 | 7.99-7.43 · n=28 | 8.52-6.95 · n=27 | |
| KEWR | 4.35-4.35 · n=34 | 4.55-4.55 · n=33 | 4.60-4.60 · n=32 | 4.62-4.62 · n=31 | 4.76-4.73 · n=31 | 4.24-3.70 · n=31 | 4.75-3.84 · n=30 | 4.06-3.91 · n=29 | 4.69-4.03 · n=28 | 6.14-4.33 · n=27 | |
| KIAH | 5.79-5.79 · n=34 | 6.48-6.48 · n=33 | 6.51-6.51 · n=32 | 6.68-6.68 · n=31 | 6.56-6.56 · n=31 | 6.70-6.70 · n=31 | 6.71-6.71 · n=30 | 6.23-6.13 · n=29 | 5.57-5.01 · n=28 | 6.81-4.71 · n=27 | |
| KLAS | 5.08-4.89 · n=34 | 4.89-4.75 · n=33 | 5.51-5.24 · n=32 | 5.56-5.38 · n=31 | 6.26-5.74 · n=31 | 6.07-5.68 · n=31 | 6.98-6.35 · n=30 | 7.33-6.99 · n=29 | 8.82-8.26 · n=28 | — | |
| KLAX | 3.21-3.21 · n=34 | 3.39-3.39 · n=33 | 3.48-3.48 · n=32 | 3.42-3.37 · n=31 | 3.56-3.53 · n=31 | 3.69-3.57 · n=31 | 3.86-3.64 · n=30 | 4.11-3.93 · n=29 | 4.78-4.76 · n=28 | — | |
| KMIA | 3.48-3.48 · n=34 | 4.18-4.18 · n=33 | 4.40-4.40 · n=32 | 4.18-4.18 · n=31 | 4.31-4.31 · n=31 | 4.74-4.74 · n=31 | 4.76-4.73 · n=30 | 5.32-4.91 · n=29 | 5.18-5.14 · n=28 | 5.45-5.12 · n=27 | |
| KMSP | 4.95-4.95 · n=34 | 5.82-5.82 · n=33 | 5.62-5.62 · n=32 | 5.85-5.71 · n=31 | 5.58-5.48 · n=31 | 6.22-5.87 · n=31 | 6.44-6.30 · n=30 | 7.00-6.70 · n=29 | 6.42-6.22 · n=28 | 6.90-6.29 · n=27 | |
| KMSY | 4.95-4.89 · n=34 | 5.29-5.22 · n=33 | 5.13-5.13 · n=32 | 5.30-5.30 · n=31 | 5.79-5.79 · n=31 | 5.54-5.54 · n=31 | 5.78-5.73 · n=30 | 5.71-5.71 · n=29 | 5.02-5.02 · n=28 | 5.21-4.07 · n=27 | |
| KNYC | 1.93-1.53 · n=34 | 1.99-1.61 · n=33 | 2.36-1.66 · n=32 | 2.56-1.98 · n=31 | 2.88-2.09 · n=31 | 2.99-0.77 · n=31 | 3.07-1.06 · n=30 | 2.53-1.22 · n=29 | 3.74-1.42 · n=28 | 5.07-1.87 · n=27 | |
| KOKC | 6.48-6.48 · n=34 | 7.16-7.16 · n=33 | 7.69-7.69 · n=32 | 8.31-8.31 · n=31 | 8.46-8.46 · n=31 | 8.59-8.37 · n=31 | 9.64-9.64 · n=30 | 9.97-9.97 · n=29 | 10.28-9.59 · n=28 | 10.09-8.39 · n=27 | |
| KORD | 3.49-3.49 · n=34 | 3.57-3.55 · n=33 | 4.40-4.32 · n=32 | 4.33-4.29 · n=31 | 4.50-4.32 · n=31 | 3.85-3.49 · n=31 | 4.80-4.40 · n=30 | 5.43-4.70 · n=29 | 5.55-4.21 · n=28 | 6.20-4.57 · n=27 | |
| KPHL | 4.36-4.32 · n=34 | 4.65-4.60 · n=33 | 4.54-4.52 · n=32 | 4.37-4.28 · n=31 | 4.22-4.12 · n=31 | 4.60-3.31 · n=31 | 5.20-3.48 · n=30 | 4.69-3.68 · n=29 | 5.44-3.99 · n=28 | 6.65-4.16 · n=27 | |
| KPHX | 3.25-3.06 · n=34 | 3.71-3.55 · n=33 | 3.94-3.83 · n=32 | 3.93-3.85 · n=31 | 4.24-4.15 · n=31 | 5.08-4.92 · n=31 | 5.49-5.33 · n=30 | 6.14-5.92 · n=29 | 7.95-7.77 · n=28 | — | |
| KSAN | 5.12-5.12 · n=34 | 5.53-5.53 · n=33 | 5.38-5.38 · n=32 | 5.49-5.49 · n=31 | 5.47-5.47 · n=31 | 5.22-5.22 · n=31 | 4.99-4.99 · n=30 | 4.99-4.99 · n=29 | 5.55-5.51 · n=28 | — | |
| KSAT | 5.83-5.83 · n=34 | 6.18-6.18 · n=33 | 6.02-6.02 · n=32 | 6.06-6.06 · n=31 | 5.80-5.77 · n=31 | 6.12-6.12 · n=31 | 5.87-5.87 · n=30 | 5.53-5.53 · n=29 | 5.12-4.80 · n=28 | 6.20-4.97 · n=27 | |
| KSEA | 4.15-4.12 · n=34 | 4.23-4.16 · n=33 | 4.31-4.17 · n=32 | 4.10-3.93 · n=31 | 4.49-4.21 · n=31 | 4.96-4.49 · n=31 | 5.76-5.10 · n=30 | 6.28-5.43 · n=29 | 6.78-6.62 · n=28 | — | |
| KSFO | 4.39-4.23 · n=34 | 4.75-4.62 · n=33 | 4.83-4.75 · n=32 | 4.72-4.50 · n=31 | 4.61-4.50 · n=31 | 4.89-4.65 · n=31 | 4.95-4.72 · n=30 | 5.12-4.91 · n=29 | 5.70-5.28 · n=28 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.91-1.65 · n=34 | 2.17-1.82 · n=33 | 2.37-1.79 · n=32 | 2.33-1.58 · n=31 | 2.68-1.63 · n=31 | 2.72-0.61 · n=31 | 3.05-0.76 · n=30 | 2.57-0.93 · n=29 | 3.47-1.22 · n=28 | 4.78-1.35 · n=27 |
Up to 3 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.50-0.55 · n=34 | 1.60-0.48 · n=33 | 1.93-0.59 · n=32 | 2.03-0.82 · n=31 | 2.07-0.38 · n=31 | 2.24-0.06 · n=31 | 2.68-0.29 · n=30 | 3.08-0.49 · n=29 | 3.09-0.36 · n=28 | 3.11+0.94 · n=27 | |
| KAUS | 5.36+5.36 · n=34 | 5.58+5.55 · n=33 | 5.47+5.41 · n=32 | 5.30+5.28 · n=31 | 5.34+5.34 · n=31 | 5.16+5.16 · n=31 | 4.83+4.83 · n=30 | 4.59+4.19 · n=29 | 4.97+4.69 · n=28 | 5.74+5.46 · n=27 | |
| KBOS | 1.42-0.28 · n=33 | 1.77-0.43 · n=33 | 1.81-0.44 · n=32 | 1.55-0.23 · n=30 | 1.72+0.17 · n=30 | 2.29+0.48 · n=30 | 2.38+0.58 · n=29 | 2.55+0.39 · n=28 | 2.76-0.65 · n=27 | 3.92-0.91 · n=26 | |
| KDCA | 1.42+0.07 · n=34 | 1.72+0.17 · n=33 | 2.16+0.25 · n=32 | 2.24+0.44 · n=31 | 2.66+0.65 · n=31 | 3.24+1.10 · n=31 | 3.47+1.40 · n=30 | 3.55+1.04 · n=29 | 3.45+0.06 · n=28 | 4.37-1.01 · n=27 | |
| KDEN | 3.22+2.80 · n=34 | 3.49+2.98 · n=33 | 3.21+2.65 · n=32 | 2.95+2.48 · n=31 | 3.07+2.68 · n=31 | 2.85+2.02 · n=31 | 2.69+1.99 · n=30 | 3.14+1.64 · n=29 | 3.54+1.10 · n=28 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.80+1.55 · n=34 | 1.49+1.03 · n=33 | 1.67+0.52 · n=32 | 1.99+0.05 · n=31 | 2.43+0.03 · n=31 | 2.26-0.30 · n=31 | 2.29-0.66 · n=30 | 2.17-0.91 · n=29 | 2.51-0.22 · n=28 | 3.20+0.56 · n=27 | |
| KEWR | 1.77+0.84 · n=34 | 1.94+0.45 · n=33 | 2.15+0.47 · n=32 | 2.48+0.84 · n=31 | 2.51+0.86 · n=31 | 2.78+0.93 · n=31 | 3.15+1.35 · n=30 | 3.23+1.40 · n=29 | 3.34+0.60 · n=28 | 3.19+0.17 · n=27 | |
| KIAH | 2.30+1.56 · n=34 | 2.23+1.00 · n=33 | 2.21+0.74 · n=32 | 2.47+0.82 · n=31 | 2.51+0.79 · n=31 | 2.53+0.51 · n=31 | 2.82+0.73 · n=30 | 2.81+0.88 · n=29 | 2.84+0.90 · n=28 | 4.25+1.62 · n=27 | |
| KLAS | 2.26-1.44 · n=34 | 2.70-2.10 · n=33 | 2.85-2.30 · n=32 | 2.89-2.24 · n=31 | 3.45-2.26 · n=31 | 4.27-2.43 · n=31 | 4.65-2.35 · n=30 | 5.46-2.43 · n=29 | 5.91-2.66 · n=28 | — | |
| KLAX | 0.90+0.16 · n=34 | 1.16-0.15 · n=33 | 1.27-0.32 · n=32 | 1.42-0.04 · n=31 | 1.54+0.20 · n=31 | 1.95+0.60 · n=31 | 2.42+1.10 · n=30 | 3.13+1.56 · n=29 | 3.60+1.61 · n=28 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.54+0.78 · n=34 | 1.71+0.27 · n=33 | 1.71+0.11 · n=32 | 1.42-0.28 · n=31 | 1.46-0.30 · n=31 | 1.82-0.49 · n=31 | 1.75-0.39 · n=30 | 2.13-1.15 · n=29 | 2.61-1.63 · n=28 | 3.86-1.66 · n=27 | |
| KMSP | 1.75-0.85 · n=34 | 1.87-1.32 · n=33 | 2.14-1.22 · n=32 | 2.34-1.55 · n=31 | 2.25-1.33 · n=31 | 2.96-1.34 · n=31 | 3.96-1.52 · n=30 | 4.32-1.33 · n=29 | 5.15-1.57 · n=28 | 6.12-1.30 · n=27 | |
| KMSY | 3.26+3.12 · n=34 | 3.04+2.76 · n=33 | 3.12+2.72 · n=32 | 2.77+2.48 · n=31 | 2.94+2.59 · n=31 | 2.78+2.09 · n=31 | 2.97+2.19 · n=30 | 3.14+2.13 · n=29 | 2.69+1.91 · n=28 | 3.48+2.97 · n=27 | |
| KNYC | 2.12+0.49 · n=34 | 2.01+0.08 · n=33 | 2.27+0.11 · n=32 | 2.55+0.56 · n=31 | 2.65+0.64 · n=31 | 2.90+0.82 · n=31 | 3.19+1.31 · n=30 | 2.93+1.05 · n=29 | 3.90-0.01 · n=28 | 3.59-0.10 · n=27 | |
| KOKC | 4.84+4.78 · n=34 | 4.42+4.33 · n=33 | 4.88+4.42 · n=32 | 4.65+3.88 · n=31 | 4.40+3.62 · n=31 | 4.05+3.32 · n=31 | 4.02+2.72 · n=30 | 3.53+2.05 · n=29 | 3.24+2.36 · n=28 | 4.37+2.80 · n=27 | |
| KORD | 1.51+0.19 · n=34 | 1.60+0.10 · n=33 | 1.51-0.30 · n=32 | 1.85-0.35 · n=31 | 2.09-0.02 · n=31 | 1.99+0.25 · n=31 | 2.43+0.14 · n=30 | 3.54-0.20 · n=29 | 4.85+0.39 · n=28 | 5.68+0.07 · n=27 | |
| KPHL | 1.51-0.88 · n=34 | 1.89-0.91 · n=33 | 1.87-0.61 · n=32 | 1.98-0.12 · n=31 | 2.54+0.04 · n=31 | 2.83+0.21 · n=31 | 3.15+0.73 · n=30 | 3.46+0.67 · n=29 | 3.12-0.54 · n=28 | 3.56-1.32 · n=27 | |
| KPHX | 2.53-0.40 · n=34 | 2.64-0.35 · n=33 | 2.59-0.72 · n=32 | 2.95-0.67 · n=31 | 2.95-0.87 · n=31 | 3.43-0.85 · n=31 | 4.11-1.43 · n=30 | 4.17-0.98 · n=29 | 4.12-1.33 · n=28 | — | |
| KSAN | 1.05-0.10 · n=34 | 1.25-0.27 · n=33 | 1.35-0.01 · n=32 | 1.41+0.41 · n=31 | 1.69+0.88 · n=31 | 2.12+1.46 · n=31 | 2.70+2.08 · n=30 | 3.31+2.83 · n=29 | 3.88+2.94 · n=28 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.73+0.93 · n=34 | 1.56+0.84 · n=33 | 1.64+1.04 · n=32 | 1.60+1.19 · n=31 | 1.81+1.51 · n=31 | 1.97+1.58 · n=31 | 1.52+1.32 · n=30 | 2.13+1.07 · n=29 | 2.16+1.06 · n=28 | 3.23+2.17 · n=27 | |
| KSEA | 2.25+1.93 · n=34 | 1.79+1.50 · n=33 | 1.73+1.50 · n=32 | 1.74+1.51 · n=31 | 2.13+1.98 · n=31 | 1.90+1.87 · n=31 | 2.06+1.58 · n=30 | 2.98+0.51 · n=29 | 3.61-0.42 · n=28 | — | |
| KSFO | 0.70+0.48 · n=34 | 0.78+0.20 · n=33 | 0.93-0.03 · n=32 | 1.23-0.31 · n=31 | 1.32-0.52 · n=31 | 1.53-0.62 · n=31 | 1.67-0.63 · n=30 | 1.98-0.45 · n=29 | 1.89-0.03 · n=28 | — | |
| KTTN | 3.08+3.08 · n=34 | 3.11+3.08 · n=33 | 3.45+3.37 · n=32 | 3.82+3.82 · n=31 | 4.07+3.91 · n=31 | 4.33+4.05 · n=31 | 4.54+4.41 · n=30 | 4.87+4.50 · n=29 | 4.17+3.36 · n=28 | 4.02+2.76 · n=27 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · GRAP · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences