KIAH — Houston Bush
29.9844, -95.3607 · 27 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIIAH
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.46-3.46 · n=30 | 3.75-3.75 · n=29 | 3.64-3.64 · n=28 | 3.66-3.61 · n=27 | 3.60-3.60 · n=26 | 3.28-3.28 · n=25 | 3.25-3.25 · n=24 | 3.16-3.11 · n=23 | 3.44-3.23 · n=22 | 3.76-3.51 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.35-5.35 · n=2 | 6.38-6.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.32-6.32 · n=3 | 6.26-6.26 · n=2 | 6.59-6.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.88-3.88 · n=2 | 3.39-3.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.48-4.48 · n=3 | 3.71-3.71 · n=2 | 3.08-3.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.43-0.49 · n=30 | 1.24-0.36 · n=29 | 1.74-0.48 · n=28 | 2.13-0.37 · n=27 | 2.15-0.83 · n=26 | 2.29-1.17 · n=25 | 2.64-1.01 · n=24 | 2.29-0.92 · n=23 | 2.44-0.76 · n=22 | 2.87-1.23 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 4.09-4.09 · n=2 | 5.55-5.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.79-5.79 · n=34 | 6.48-6.48 · n=33 | 6.51-6.51 · n=32 | 6.68-6.68 · n=31 | 6.56-6.56 · n=31 | 6.70-6.70 · n=31 | 6.71-6.71 · n=30 | 6.23-6.13 · n=29 | 5.57-5.01 · n=28 | 6.81-4.71 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.84-3.73 · n=24 | 3.85-3.85 · n=23 | 3.85-3.85 · n=22 | 3.63-3.63 · n=22 | 3.87-3.87 · n=20 | 3.95-3.95 · n=18 | 3.79-3.79 · n=19 | 3.62-3.62 · n=18 | 4.15-4.15 · n=17 | 3.84-3.45 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.50-2.50 · n=2 | 2.14-2.14 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.30-3.30 · n=3 | 3.56-3.56 · n=2 | 3.89-3.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.13-0.03 · n=972 | 5.58-0.08 · n=971 | 6.18-0.12 · n=970 | 6.42-0.16 · n=969 | 6.57-0.20 · n=968 | 6.73-0.23 · n=967 | 6.92-0.28 · n=966 | 7.16-0.30 · n=965 | 7.32-0.35 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.66-0.60 · n=30 | 1.60-0.32 · n=29 | 1.58-0.25 · n=28 | 1.55-0.05 · n=27 | 1.67-0.06 · n=26 | 1.69+0.02 · n=25 | 1.95+0.14 · n=24 | 2.07+0.29 · n=23 | 2.45+0.23 · n=22 | 2.61+0.12 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.02+1.02 · n=2 | 0.73+0.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.39+1.57 · n=3 | 0.96+0.96 · n=2 | 0.78+0.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.10+2.10 · n=2 | 2.47+2.47 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.50+1.86 · n=3 | 2.26+2.26 · n=2 | 2.49+2.49 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.57+3.57 · n=30 | 3.46+3.46 · n=29 | 3.45+3.45 · n=28 | 3.61+3.58 · n=27 | 3.34+3.24 · n=26 | 3.55+3.35 · n=25 | 3.47+3.19 · n=24 | 3.48+3.10 · n=23 | 2.98+2.67 · n=22 | 3.55+3.10 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.29+2.29 · n=2 | 0.93+0.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.30+1.56 · n=34 | 2.23+1.00 · n=33 | 2.21+0.74 · n=32 | 2.47+0.82 · n=31 | 2.51+0.79 · n=31 | 2.53+0.51 · n=31 | 2.82+0.73 · n=30 | 2.81+0.88 · n=29 | 2.84+0.90 · n=28 | 4.25+1.62 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.93+1.07 · n=24 | 1.92+1.21 · n=23 | 1.70+0.98 · n=22 | 2.02+1.46 · n=22 | 1.86+1.46 · n=20 | 2.06+1.64 · n=18 | 1.88+1.52 · n=19 | 2.04+1.75 · n=18 | 2.64+1.70 · n=17 | 2.68+1.45 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 0.81+0.68 · n=2 | 1.36+1.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.32+1.88 · n=3 | 0.31+0.31 · n=2 | 0.31-0.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.14-0.03 · n=972 | 6.17-0.07 · n=971 | 6.95-0.10 · n=970 | 7.37-0.14 · n=969 | 7.67-0.18 · n=968 | 7.84-0.22 · n=967 | 8.07-0.27 · n=966 | 8.26-0.30 · n=965 | 8.29-0.34 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences