Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Pangu-Weather (IFS init) (pangu_ifs)

source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 3.28-3.28 · n=3 2.86-2.86 · n=2 4.71-4.71 · n=1 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 5.12-5.12 · n=3 5.91-5.91 · n=2 6.34-6.34 · n=1 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 2.55-0.54 · n=2 2.63-0.53 · n=2 3.84-3.84 · n=1 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 2.80-2.80 · n=3 1.96-1.96 · n=2 3.70-3.70 · n=1 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 2.30-2.03 · n=3 1.80-1.80 · n=2 0.70+0.70 · n=1 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 4.26-4.26 · n=3 5.23-5.23 · n=2 4.74-4.74 · n=1 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 2.47-1.04 · n=3 0.62+0.60 · n=2 1.39+1.39 · n=1 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 3.30-3.30 · n=3 3.56-3.56 · n=2 3.89-3.89 · n=1 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 5.32-5.32 · n=3 5.80-5.80 · n=2 5.51-5.51 · n=1 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 2.13-1.73 · n=3 3.27-3.27 · n=2 4.04-4.04 · n=1 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 4.65-4.65 · n=3 6.55-6.55 · n=2 7.11-7.11 · n=1 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 4.60-4.60 · n=3 4.57-4.57 · n=2 4.11-4.11 · n=1 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 4.27-4.27 · n=3 4.24-4.24 · n=2 2.77-2.77 · n=1 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 3.20+2.06 · n=3 3.71+3.71 · n=2 3.83+3.83 · n=1 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 4.91-4.91 · n=3 5.21-5.21 · n=2 4.96-4.96 · n=1 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 2.71-2.71 · n=3 4.02-4.02 · n=2 1.44-1.44 · n=1 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 2.69-2.69 · n=3 1.66-1.66 · n=2 3.24-3.24 · n=1 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 6.10-6.10 · n=3 7.45-7.45 · n=2 7.00-7.00 · n=1 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 5.51-5.51 · n=3 6.41-6.41 · n=2 4.85-4.85 · n=1 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 2.73-2.73 · n=3 3.94-3.94 · n=2 4.20-4.20 · n=1 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 1.78-1.78 · n=3 3.06-3.06 · n=2 2.28-2.28 · n=1 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 4.74-4.11 · n=3 6.70-6.70 · n=2 6.39-6.39 · n=1 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 1.59+1.59 · n=3 2.81+2.81 · n=2 2.11+2.11 · n=1 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.45-1.45 · n=3 1.46-1.46 · n=2 0.83-0.83 · n=1 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 3.49+3.49 · n=3 3.71+3.71 · n=2 2.67+2.67 · n=1 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 2.53-1.13 · n=2 2.49-1.01 · n=2 2.81-2.81 · n=1 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 1.80-1.80 · n=3 2.14-1.07 · n=2 1.47-1.47 · n=1 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 1.86+1.86 · n=3 1.49+1.38 · n=2 1.22+1.22 · n=1 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 0.62-0.62 · n=3 1.67-1.67 · n=2 2.32-2.32 · n=1 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 1.61+1.61 · n=3 2.32+1.05 · n=2 1.05+1.05 · n=1 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 2.32+1.88 · n=3 0.31+0.31 · n=2 0.31-0.31 · n=1 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 4.85-4.85 · n=3 6.21-6.21 · n=2 7.28-7.28 · n=1 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 1.22+0.64 · n=3 1.34-1.34 · n=2 3.15-3.15 · n=1 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 1.32+1.27 · n=3 2.33+2.26 · n=2 0.74-0.74 · n=1 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 0.77-0.73 · n=3 1.36-1.36 · n=2 3.69-3.69 · n=1 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 1.63-0.14 · n=3 1.93-1.00 · n=2 3.66-3.66 · n=1 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 2.35+0.88 · n=3 3.23-0.98 · n=2 2.11-2.11 · n=1 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 3.57+2.67 · n=3 3.06+3.06 · n=2 1.48+1.48 · n=1 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 2.10+2.10 · n=3 1.85+1.85 · n=2 1.54+1.54 · n=1 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 0.95-0.08 · n=3 1.39+0.68 · n=2 2.57+2.57 · n=1 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 1.55-1.07 · n=3 0.89-0.83 · n=2 0.83-0.83 · n=1 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 1.12-0.30 · n=3 1.54-1.54 · n=2 3.13-3.13 · n=1 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 2.75+1.13 · n=3 1.70-1.70 · n=2 3.89-3.89 · n=1 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 1.78+1.78 · n=3 1.59+1.32 · n=2 0.35+0.35 · n=1 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 1.21+1.12 · n=3 1.13+0.42 · n=2 0.08+0.08 · n=1 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 4.87+4.87 · n=3 5.95+5.95 · n=2 7.57+7.57 · n=1 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

aiwp · PANG · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences