CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Pangu-Weather (IFS init)

pangu_ifs

source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initPANG_v100
Window
the last 30 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL3.42−1.73 · n=273.86−1.79 · n=273.70−1.66 · n=273.85−1.59 · n=264.13−1.76 · n=264.40−2.07 · n=264.39−1.42 · n=264.46−1.44 · n=265.52−0.96 · n=255.86−0.55 · n=25KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS3.25+0.53 · n=273.09+0.00 · n=273.10−0.53 · n=273.36−0.60 · n=263.52−0.70 · n=264.04−0.54 · n=264.42−0.21 · n=265.99−0.34 · n=266.66−0.82 · n=257.33−0.80 · n=25KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS2.02−0.70 · n=262.02−0.35 · n=262.26−0.19 · n=262.44+0.24 · n=253.00+0.75 · n=253.56+0.42 · n=263.74+0.37 · n=253.79−0.67 · n=254.85+0.01 · n=245.86+1.06 · n=24KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA2.52−0.71 · n=272.27−0.46 · n=272.39−0.23 · n=272.54−0.24 · n=263.17+0.04 · n=263.89−0.21 · n=264.80−0.02 · n=264.52−1.21 · n=264.50−0.57 · n=256.02+0.17 · n=25KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN2.96−1.05 · n=273.52−2.06 · n=273.95−2.48 · n=274.27−2.97 · n=265.25−3.94 · n=266.91−4.68 · n=266.57−3.46 · n=268.93−4.78 · n=269.88−5.90 · n=25—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW2.38−1.60 · n=273.03−2.37 · n=273.41−2.67 · n=273.72−2.81 · n=264.18−3.12 · n=264.34−3.31 · n=264.94−3.49 · n=266.01−3.79 · n=266.86−3.89 · n=258.22−4.12 · n=25KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR2.28−0.75 · n=272.32−0.95 · n=272.43−0.66 · n=272.61−0.63 · n=263.00−0.16 · n=263.45−0.31 · n=264.17−0.92 · n=264.42−1.53 · n=264.29−1.36 · n=255.74−0.54 · n=25KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.02−0.45 · n=272.55−1.50 · n=273.02−2.04 · n=273.46−2.43 · n=263.29−2.22 · n=263.75−2.11 · n=264.03−1.80 · n=264.83−1.89 · n=265.89−2.48 · n=256.24−2.24 · n=25KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS3.69−3.41 · n=273.59−3.37 · n=273.75−3.48 · n=273.63−3.21 · n=263.89−2.92 · n=264.62−3.45 · n=265.56−3.62 · n=266.61−3.88 · n=267.96−5.03 · n=25—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX2.74−1.87 · n=273.34−2.79 · n=273.82−3.28 · n=274.23−3.88 · n=264.94−4.62 · n=265.70−5.23 · n=266.13−5.43 · n=266.24−5.26 · n=267.13−4.99 · n=25—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA1.57−0.81 · n=271.75−1.04 · n=271.92−1.12 · n=272.09−1.16 · n=262.23−1.34 · n=262.36−1.59 · n=262.57−1.68 · n=262.51−1.50 · n=262.65−1.36 · n=252.95−1.40 · n=25KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP2.93−1.87 · n=273.26−2.28 · n=273.52−2.48 · n=273.74−2.72 · n=264.07−2.30 · n=264.69−2.95 · n=265.20−2.47 · n=266.79−2.43 · n=268.92−4.37 · n=258.74−6.16 · n=25KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY1.88−0.49 · n=272.16−1.08 · n=272.48−1.47 · n=272.51−1.73 · n=262.86−1.84 · n=263.27−1.76 · n=263.85−1.52 · n=264.42−1.79 · n=265.07−1.88 · n=255.31−0.79 · n=25KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC2.90+0.18 · n=262.99+0.01 · n=262.91+0.36 · n=262.99+0.48 · n=253.41+0.86 · n=253.60+0.76 · n=254.15+0.29 · n=254.32−0.36 · n=253.99−0.36 · n=245.56+0.68 · n=24KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC2.22+0.93 · n=272.69+0.18 · n=272.75−0.06 · n=272.79−0.46 · n=263.34−0.62 · n=263.76−0.84 · n=264.98−1.80 · n=265.65−1.71 · n=266.88−1.36 · n=257.55−2.92 · n=25KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD1.93−0.25 · n=272.11+0.11 · n=272.23+0.40 · n=272.56+0.56 · n=262.72+0.49 · n=263.54+0.57 · n=264.60−0.63 · n=265.10−0.19 · n=266.33−1.10 · n=256.69−1.52 · n=25KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL2.83−1.35 · n=272.73−1.29 · n=272.79−0.97 · n=272.76−0.90 · n=263.16−0.47 · n=263.81−0.70 · n=264.40−1.11 · n=264.62−1.91 · n=264.52−1.59 · n=256.04−0.73 · n=25KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX3.03−2.03 · n=273.49−2.10 · n=273.85−2.12 · n=274.00−2.32 · n=264.50−2.27 · n=264.83−1.92 · n=265.77−2.23 · n=266.53−2.84 · n=267.33−3.27 · n=25—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN2.89−1.28 · n=273.10−1.86 · n=273.36−2.25 · n=273.74−2.79 · n=264.19−3.47 · n=264.96−4.14 · n=265.29−4.39 · n=265.14−4.38 · n=266.09−4.19 · n=25—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT1.97−0.37 · n=272.26−0.94 · n=272.41−1.49 · n=272.79−1.62 · n=263.13−1.62 · n=263.71−1.77 · n=264.08−1.50 · n=265.05−1.48 · n=265.50−1.76 · n=256.90−1.84 · n=25KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA2.00−0.03 · n=272.06+0.21 · n=272.11+0.63 · n=272.35+0.55 · n=262.77+0.08 · n=263.26−0.42 · n=263.80−0.73 · n=264.44−0.80 · n=265.14−0.28 · n=25—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO3.43−0.35 · n=273.60−1.41 · n=273.71−1.85 · n=273.82−2.15 · n=263.94−2.57 · n=264.58−3.35 · n=264.77−3.13 · n=264.93−3.05 · n=265.38−3.19 · n=25—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN2.61+1.85 · n=272.54+1.93 · n=272.83+2.21 · n=272.91+2.37 · n=263.64+2.83 · n=264.15+2.68 · n=264.87+2.16 · n=264.59+1.35 · n=264.64+1.55 · n=255.94+2.50 · n=25KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.96+2.85 · n=273.38+3.14 · n=273.33+2.98 · n=273.79+2.65 · n=263.75+2.78 · n=263.91+2.81 · n=264.36+2.99 · n=264.79+1.66 · n=266.00+1.30 · n=255.58+1.03 · n=25KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS1.56+0.68 · n=271.46+0.24 · n=271.76−0.15 · n=272.04−0.25 · n=262.58−0.46 · n=263.40−1.29 · n=263.34−1.33 · n=265.19−2.25 · n=266.45−2.37 · n=257.44−2.16 · n=25KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS1.72+0.62 · n=262.01+0.83 · n=262.30+0.44 · n=263.01+1.26 · n=253.97+1.74 · n=254.35+0.75 · n=264.04+1.23 · n=253.95−0.77 · n=255.62+0.16 · n=246.52+1.26 · n=24KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.73+2.45 · n=272.93+2.43 · n=272.97+2.17 · n=273.08+2.12 · n=263.80+3.02 · n=264.23+2.42 · n=265.61+1.68 · n=264.44+0.32 · n=264.65+0.70 · n=256.86+1.50 · n=25KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN1.77+0.14 · n=272.17−0.54 · n=272.57−0.64 · n=272.93−1.15 · n=263.38−1.99 · n=266.14−2.53 · n=265.28−0.75 · n=268.47−2.22 · n=269.54−2.48 · n=25—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW1.42+0.36 · n=271.39+0.06 · n=271.53+0.11 · n=271.92−0.16 · n=262.53−0.35 · n=263.38−1.30 · n=263.81−1.95 · n=265.68−3.08 · n=265.57−2.27 · n=256.98−2.13 · n=25KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR1.85+1.24 · n=271.69+1.21 · n=271.63+0.73 · n=271.77+0.76 · n=262.99+1.64 · n=262.97+0.83 · n=263.88−0.08 · n=264.01−0.27 · n=264.74−0.48 · n=256.52+0.14 · n=25KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH2.19+0.42 · n=272.47−0.24 · n=272.71−0.47 · n=273.03−0.77 · n=263.11−0.87 · n=263.75−2.23 · n=264.03−1.48 · n=264.81−2.68 · n=266.70−3.54 · n=256.08−3.09 · n=25KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS4.42−4.33 · n=274.50−4.50 · n=274.77−4.77 · n=274.48−4.33 · n=264.89−4.02 · n=266.02−4.81 · n=266.88−5.14 · n=268.45−5.27 · n=269.13−6.19 · n=25—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX2.96−2.05 · n=273.47−2.75 · n=273.68−2.89 · n=273.96−3.28 · n=264.80−4.12 · n=265.45−4.76 · n=266.46−5.17 · n=266.16−4.54 · n=267.81−3.83 · n=25—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA1.43−0.47 · n=271.86−0.97 · n=272.50−1.20 · n=272.88−1.56 · n=262.92−1.67 · n=262.92−2.11 · n=262.82−2.06 · n=263.19−1.27 · n=263.11−1.43 · n=253.51−1.91 · n=25KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP1.76+0.68 · n=271.85+0.49 · n=272.26+0.34 · n=272.31−0.21 · n=262.83+0.43 · n=263.47−1.33 · n=264.96+0.24 · n=265.92+0.23 · n=267.98−1.19 · n=258.83−3.42 · n=25KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY1.29+0.34 · n=271.28+0.26 · n=271.62−0.04 · n=271.83−0.53 · n=262.36−0.75 · n=262.04−1.02 · n=262.55−0.51 · n=263.20−1.45 · n=264.76−2.43 · n=254.40−1.41 · n=25KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC4.82+4.82 · n=264.70+4.67 · n=264.01+4.01 · n=264.13+4.11 · n=255.17+4.91 · n=255.29+4.08 · n=254.59+3.34 · n=254.57+3.09 · n=254.77+2.54 · n=246.54+3.33 · n=24KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC1.99+1.21 · n=272.02+0.76 · n=272.03+0.74 · n=272.50+0.36 · n=262.95−0.02 · n=263.66−0.43 · n=264.53−2.49 · n=265.51−1.38 · n=267.63−1.21 · n=258.22−2.44 · n=25KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD1.33−0.93 · n=271.58−0.78 · n=271.80−0.71 · n=272.08−0.32 · n=262.48−0.30 · n=263.64−0.30 · n=264.45−2.22 · n=264.63−1.54 · n=265.47−1.92 · n=255.71−2.56 · n=25KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL2.57+1.98 · n=272.44+1.80 · n=272.35+1.28 · n=272.16+1.11 · n=263.11+2.12 · n=263.89+1.45 · n=264.53+0.40 · n=264.04−0.05 · n=263.99−0.28 · n=256.50+0.30 · n=25KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX2.63−2.15 · n=272.96−2.29 · n=273.30−2.32 · n=273.66−2.52 · n=264.40−2.75 · n=264.02−2.08 · n=264.93−1.93 · n=266.44−3.18 · n=267.62−3.15 · n=25—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN4.30−4.30 · n=274.76−4.76 · n=275.12−5.12 · n=275.67−5.67 · n=266.38−6.38 · n=267.15−7.15 · n=267.59−7.59 · n=267.29−7.18 · n=268.29−6.77 · n=25—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT1.84+1.01 · n=271.62+0.67 · n=271.56+0.07 · n=271.75+0.06 · n=262.14−0.03 · n=263.10−0.74 · n=263.38−1.20 · n=264.58−1.58 · n=265.97−2.05 · n=256.78−1.73 · n=25KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA1.93−0.56 · n=271.60+0.04 · n=271.73+0.36 · n=272.37−0.11 · n=262.90−0.61 · n=263.33−1.27 · n=264.21−1.36 · n=265.28−1.39 · n=266.20−0.29 · n=25—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO3.78−2.12 · n=274.23−3.18 · n=274.39−3.47 · n=274.39−3.65 · n=265.38−4.32 · n=266.52−5.32 · n=266.48−4.62 · n=266.21−3.95 · n=266.63−4.28 · n=25—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN3.36+3.36 · n=273.25+3.25 · n=272.89+2.84 · n=272.96+2.85 · n=264.24+3.70 · n=264.49+2.97 · n=264.93+1.80 · n=264.55+1.78 · n=264.25+1.37 · n=256.64+1.98 · n=25KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.38−2.00 · n=273.20−2.50 · n=273.14−2.46 · n=273.12−2.26 · n=263.28−2.49 · n=263.90−3.05 · n=264.18−2.21 · n=264.01−1.66 · n=265.50−0.34 · n=256.23+0.82 · n=25KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS3.39+3.04 · n=273.05+2.39 · n=272.71+1.89 · n=272.88+1.99 · n=262.75+1.80 · n=263.80+3.26 · n=264.41+4.08 · n=265.75+4.29 · n=265.60+3.90 · n=256.53+3.36 · n=25KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS1.35−0.03 · n=261.51−0.04 · n=261.90+0.61 · n=261.87+0.78 · n=252.32+1.55 · n=252.73+1.20 · n=263.22+0.72 · n=252.97+0.37 · n=253.67+0.88 · n=244.29+1.48 · n=24KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA1.35−0.51 · n=271.33−0.56 · n=271.52−0.25 · n=271.71−0.21 · n=262.53−0.17 · n=263.28−0.16 · n=263.70+0.37 · n=264.24−1.16 · n=264.21−0.13 · n=254.75+0.41 · n=25KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN3.22−2.21 · n=273.87−3.08 · n=274.04−3.15 · n=274.01−3.38 · n=264.94−4.19 · n=266.49−5.10 · n=265.27−3.98 · n=267.01−6.02 · n=268.00−6.75 · n=25—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.58−1.22 · n=272.40−2.08 · n=272.78−2.54 · n=272.99−2.64 · n=263.14−2.61 · n=262.73−2.22 · n=263.73−1.98 · n=264.33−1.66 · n=265.27−2.47 · n=256.74−3.14 · n=25KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR1.16+0.26 · n=271.36−0.46 · n=271.75+0.07 · n=271.96+0.25 · n=262.30+0.70 · n=262.56+0.93 · n=263.49+0.03 · n=263.86−0.40 · n=262.79−0.08 · n=254.16+0.46 · n=25KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.27+0.24 · n=271.58−0.83 · n=271.96−1.43 · n=272.20−1.68 · n=261.82−1.09 · n=262.97−0.10 · n=263.07+0.20 · n=264.12+0.60 · n=264.87+0.50 · n=255.94+0.28 · n=25KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS3.58−3.58 · n=273.25−3.23 · n=273.49−3.41 · n=273.20−3.18 · n=263.22−3.15 · n=263.69−3.16 · n=264.20−3.22 · n=264.59−3.31 · n=266.54−4.92 · n=25—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX1.60−1.03 · n=272.47−2.30 · n=272.90−2.90 · n=273.30−3.29 · n=263.63−3.63 · n=264.48−4.17 · n=264.67−4.17 · n=264.80−4.13 · n=265.82−4.42 · n=25—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.19−0.36 · n=271.37−0.62 · n=271.15−0.63 · n=271.43−0.60 · n=261.40−0.67 · n=261.72−0.84 · n=262.22−0.98 · n=261.92−1.28 · n=262.13−0.75 · n=252.53−0.78 · n=25KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP2.40−2.32 · n=272.89−2.83 · n=273.07−2.79 · n=273.16−2.76 · n=263.30−2.22 · n=263.71−1.81 · n=264.81−2.76 · n=266.49−2.29 · n=268.82−5.01 · n=257.73−5.93 · n=25KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY2.02−0.10 · n=272.06−0.66 · n=272.07−0.83 · n=271.89−0.86 · n=262.47−1.04 · n=263.04−0.54 · n=264.16−0.29 · n=264.56−0.22 · n=265.07+0.03 · n=255.82+1.44 · n=25KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC1.78−0.62 · n=261.97−1.33 · n=262.07−0.39 · n=262.40−0.32 · n=252.50−0.11 · n=252.69+0.27 · n=254.07−0.42 · n=254.08−0.90 · n=252.92−0.59 · n=244.84+0.12 · n=24KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC2.06+1.39 · n=272.41+0.64 · n=272.51+0.35 · n=272.46+0.47 · n=262.73+0.47 · n=262.95+0.37 · n=264.77+0.37 · n=265.33−0.09 · n=266.33+0.24 · n=256.43−1.51 · n=25KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD2.13+1.62 · n=272.40+1.76 · n=272.47+2.20 · n=272.80+2.24 · n=263.07+1.73 · n=263.54+2.15 · n=264.31+1.28 · n=265.05+1.55 · n=266.16+0.18 · n=256.62+0.59 · n=25KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL1.78−1.32 · n=272.05−1.58 · n=272.12−1.12 · n=272.32−0.91 · n=262.44−0.41 · n=263.03−0.49 · n=263.66−0.97 · n=264.17−1.73 · n=263.61−1.08 · n=254.68−0.25 · n=25KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX3.12−2.77 · n=273.65−3.17 · n=274.04−3.36 · n=274.22−3.52 · n=264.55−3.36 · n=264.92−3.18 · n=265.16−3.53 · n=266.07−4.05 · n=267.19−4.87 · n=25—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN2.71+2.27 · n=272.50+1.55 · n=272.36+1.27 · n=272.23+0.84 · n=261.88+0.14 · n=262.55−0.25 · n=262.97−0.10 · n=262.40−0.61 · n=263.48−0.66 · n=25—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT0.97+0.49 · n=271.22−0.07 · n=271.33−0.62 · n=271.97−0.70 · n=261.77−0.50 · n=262.71+0.25 · n=263.01+1.03 · n=264.02+1.80 · n=263.40+1.43 · n=255.99+0.95 · n=25KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA1.45−0.65 · n=271.58−0.54 · n=271.66−0.13 · n=271.58+0.12 · n=261.59+0.02 · n=262.66−1.08 · n=262.86−1.42 · n=263.43−1.54 · n=264.26−1.42 · n=25—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO2.48+1.28 · n=272.16+0.15 · n=272.25−0.23 · n=272.30−0.57 · n=262.11−0.58 · n=262.69−1.27 · n=262.96−1.35 · n=263.24−1.70 · n=264.12−1.84 · n=25—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN2.91+2.85 · n=272.82+2.61 · n=273.26+2.95 · n=273.63+3.32 · n=264.14+3.75 · n=264.26+3.71 · n=264.83+3.26 · n=264.67+2.49 · n=264.75+3.00 · n=255.52+3.74 · n=25KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.36+0.15 · n=271.76+0.44 · n=272.10+0.35 · n=272.80+0.00 · n=263.14+0.17 · n=263.00+0.08 · n=263.57+0.23 · n=264.72−0.92 · n=266.38−1.37 · n=256.31−1.65 · n=25KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS4.00−3.69 · n=274.37−4.13 · n=274.72−4.52 · n=275.23−4.56 · n=265.69−4.76 · n=266.90−5.60 · n=266.54−5.87 · n=268.24−6.67 · n=269.39−6.97 · n=2510.17−6.52 · n=25KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS2.19−0.98 · n=272.34−0.69 · n=272.70−1.17 · n=273.08−0.51 · n=263.95−0.22 · n=264.53−0.73 · n=264.17−0.59 · n=264.84−2.68 · n=265.88−1.65 · n=256.50−0.35 · n=25KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA1.26+0.56 · n=271.80+0.69 · n=272.12+0.36 · n=272.14+0.35 · n=262.79+1.06 · n=263.78+0.69 · n=265.31−0.08 · n=264.57−1.52 · n=264.91−1.17 · n=257.42−0.42 · n=25KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN4.82−4.82 · n=275.61−5.61 · n=275.72−5.72 · n=276.35−6.35 · n=267.39−7.19 · n=269.21−7.57 · n=267.40−5.67 · n=2610.85−7.22 · n=2612.09−7.68 · n=25—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW3.02−3.02 · n=273.34−3.31 · n=273.47−3.30 · n=274.25−3.59 · n=264.99−3.85 · n=266.00−4.92 · n=266.58−5.30 · n=268.18−6.55 · n=268.45−5.79 · n=259.26−5.62 · n=25KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR1.23−0.51 · n=271.62−0.55 · n=271.70−1.10 · n=272.18−0.98 · n=262.62−0.10 · n=263.45−0.80 · n=264.52−1.83 · n=264.42−2.02 · n=265.00−2.30 · n=256.80−1.64 · n=25KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH3.68−3.10 · n=274.51−3.83 · n=274.70−4.06 · n=275.17−4.54 · n=265.44−4.52 · n=266.33−5.73 · n=265.88−4.91 · n=267.36−6.29 · n=268.94−7.18 · n=258.49−6.65 · n=25KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS5.99−5.99 · n=276.12−6.12 · n=276.35−6.35 · n=276.02−6.02 · n=266.27−5.71 · n=267.08−6.42 · n=268.03−6.82 · n=269.17−6.91 · n=2610.04−7.90 · n=25—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX5.10−4.83 · n=275.65−5.42 · n=276.03−5.74 · n=276.05−5.82 · n=267.13−6.97 · n=267.86−7.53 · n=268.69−7.87 · n=268.08−7.12 · n=269.13−6.59 · n=25—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA2.17−2.13 · n=272.97−2.97 · n=273.24−3.24 · n=273.59−3.48 · n=263.76−3.56 · n=264.04−4.04 · n=263.92−3.75 · n=263.54−3.35 · n=263.44−3.35 · n=254.06−3.75 · n=25KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP2.80−2.51 · n=273.11−2.77 · n=273.30−3.00 · n=273.62−3.51 · n=264.11−2.99 · n=265.38−4.68 · n=266.59−3.11 · n=267.76−3.08 · n=269.51−4.51 · n=2510.22−6.90 · n=25KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY2.13−1.96 · n=272.26−2.07 · n=272.42−2.30 · n=272.85−2.72 · n=263.28−3.10 · n=263.35−3.25 · n=263.58−2.94 · n=264.20−3.84 · n=265.93−4.67 · n=255.30−3.61 · n=25KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC2.61+2.61 · n=272.72+2.38 · n=272.23+1.92 · n=272.64+2.05 · n=263.70+2.90 · n=264.33+2.27 · n=264.45+1.55 · n=263.98+1.13 · n=264.27+0.79 · n=256.11+1.27 · n=25KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC2.64−1.97 · n=273.08−2.35 · n=273.29−2.45 · n=273.97−2.69 · n=264.67−3.26 · n=265.57−3.66 · n=266.54−5.69 · n=267.51−4.61 · n=269.28−4.38 · n=2510.08−5.52 · n=25KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD3.10−3.07 · n=272.89−2.89 · n=273.05−2.93 · n=273.36−2.66 · n=263.65−2.68 · n=264.21−2.75 · n=265.74−4.48 · n=265.65−3.69 · n=266.38−4.15 · n=256.89−5.07 · n=25KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL1.43−0.06 · n=271.54−0.10 · n=271.82−0.61 · n=271.71−0.81 · n=262.15+0.27 · n=263.65−0.13 · n=264.88−1.64 · n=264.85−1.93 · n=264.63−2.24 · n=257.15−1.62 · n=25KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX4.70−4.70 · n=274.88−4.88 · n=275.02−5.02 · n=275.54−5.30 · n=265.80−5.33 · n=265.14−4.70 · n=266.30−4.63 · n=267.71−5.95 · n=268.86−5.87 · n=25—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN6.71−6.71 · n=277.21−7.21 · n=277.57−7.57 · n=278.13−8.13 · n=268.88−8.88 · n=269.65−9.65 · n=269.90−9.90 · n=269.52−9.52 · n=269.84−9.09 · n=25—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT2.60−2.52 · n=273.05−2.94 · n=273.66−3.47 · n=273.82−3.34 · n=264.22−3.55 · n=265.38−4.45 · n=265.38−4.75 · n=266.81−5.22 · n=268.00−5.63 · n=258.81−5.27 · n=25KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA2.77−2.02 · n=272.35−1.39 · n=272.35−1.11 · n=272.68−1.56 · n=263.68−2.13 · n=264.11−2.60 · n=265.10−2.77 · n=266.00−2.88 · n=266.54−1.88 · n=25—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO5.92−5.88 · n=277.09−7.09 · n=277.27−7.27 · n=277.36−7.36 · n=268.07−8.07 · n=269.04−9.04 · n=268.66−8.42 · n=268.44−7.78 · n=268.96−8.02 · n=25—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN1.53+1.39 · n=271.70+1.32 · n=271.62+0.87 · n=271.83+1.04 · n=262.94+1.78 · n=263.61+1.16 · n=264.59−0.05 · n=264.38−0.23 · n=263.98−0.47 · n=256.84+0.06 · n=25KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.11−0.38 · n=272.74−0.96 · n=272.72−0.89 · n=272.77−0.89 · n=262.85−1.05 · n=263.12−1.68 · n=263.58−0.61 · n=263.54−0.02 · n=265.56+1.29 · n=256.32+2.33 · n=25KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS4.95+4.81 · n=274.33+4.16 · n=273.89+3.69 · n=274.06+3.71 · n=263.92+3.60 · n=264.87+4.79 · n=265.99+5.88 · n=266.68+6.06 · n=266.54+5.69 · n=256.98+5.07 · n=25KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS2.06+1.86 · n=272.38+2.18 · n=273.03+2.71 · n=273.25+3.10 · n=263.68+3.67 · n=263.95+3.31 · n=263.79+2.69 · n=264.06+2.35 · n=264.40+2.89 · n=255.07+3.58 · n=25KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA1.59+1.07 · n=271.48+1.10 · n=271.95+1.41 · n=272.05+1.40 · n=262.52+1.48 · n=263.14+1.53 · n=264.04+1.90 · n=264.23+0.52 · n=264.65+1.59 · n=254.76+2.04 · n=25KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN3.01−0.42 · n=272.97−1.10 · n=273.17−1.06 · n=273.00−1.29 · n=263.87−2.06 · n=265.00−3.05 · n=264.52−2.19 · n=265.81−4.12 · n=266.55−4.74 · n=25—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW1.61+0.71 · n=272.19−0.22 · n=272.30−0.60 · n=272.46−0.63 · n=262.73−1.03 · n=262.66−0.60 · n=264.06−0.13 · n=265.00+0.23 · n=265.21−0.46 · n=256.57−1.13 · n=25KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.70+2.48 · n=272.23+2.02 · n=272.77+2.47 · n=273.09+2.67 · n=263.61+3.15 · n=263.48+3.42 · n=264.41+2.37 · n=264.38+1.98 · n=264.04+2.39 · n=255.16+2.73 · n=25KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH2.49+2.25 · n=272.08+1.25 · n=272.26+0.66 · n=272.31+0.15 · n=262.23+0.81 · n=263.66+1.53 · n=264.15+2.29 · n=264.88+2.77 · n=265.36+2.51 · n=256.23+2.34 · n=25KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS2.10−1.95 · n=272.05−1.60 · n=272.34−1.75 · n=272.18−1.61 · n=262.10−1.54 · n=262.78−1.51 · n=263.40−1.61 · n=264.38−1.92 · n=266.02−3.29 · n=25—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.20+0.65 · n=271.19−0.50 · n=271.33−1.14 · n=271.69−1.54 · n=262.17−1.92 · n=262.89−2.34 · n=263.03−2.34 · n=263.44−2.46 · n=264.86−2.76 · n=25—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA1.53+1.27 · n=271.65+1.16 · n=271.42+1.07 · n=271.64+1.05 · n=261.82+1.14 · n=261.68+0.66 · n=262.27+0.83 · n=261.94+0.49 · n=262.08+0.77 · n=252.69+1.14 · n=25KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP2.45−0.09 · n=272.44−0.90 · n=272.71−0.46 · n=272.39−0.42 · n=262.67+0.13 · n=263.36+0.00 · n=265.47−0.41 · n=265.93−0.09 · n=267.61−2.49 · n=256.77−3.48 · n=25KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY2.72+2.01 · n=272.34+1.38 · n=272.15+1.09 · n=271.79+0.90 · n=262.41+0.92 · n=263.41+1.26 · n=264.00+1.74 · n=264.70+1.97 · n=265.89+2.23 · n=256.74+3.24 · n=25KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.02+0.58 · n=272.06+0.22 · n=272.44+1.10 · n=272.96+1.11 · n=263.20+1.49 · n=262.98+1.74 · n=263.87+0.86 · n=264.00+0.59 · n=263.40+1.18 · n=254.90+1.69 · n=25KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC2.97+2.89 · n=272.74+2.17 · n=272.71+1.81 · n=272.75+1.95 · n=263.05+1.87 · n=263.09+1.84 · n=264.67+1.88 · n=265.20+1.46 · n=265.97+1.70 · n=255.73−0.09 · n=25KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD3.27+3.14 · n=273.34+3.28 · n=273.58+3.57 · n=273.98+3.74 · n=263.66+3.19 · n=264.09+3.41 · n=264.90+2.81 · n=265.55+3.05 · n=266.20+1.82 · n=256.81+1.93 · n=25KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL1.53+0.59 · n=271.44+0.47 · n=271.95+0.86 · n=272.21+1.19 · n=262.44+1.68 · n=263.03+1.57 · n=263.58+0.78 · n=264.27+0.32 · n=264.30+0.89 · n=255.02+1.81 · n=25KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX2.26−1.49 · n=272.84−1.86 · n=273.26−2.04 · n=273.48−2.38 · n=263.92−1.99 · n=264.54−1.97 · n=264.96−2.28 · n=265.58−2.72 · n=266.64−3.64 · n=25—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN3.97+3.97 · n=273.55+3.50 · n=273.21+3.15 · n=272.92+2.75 · n=262.38+2.09 · n=262.69+1.59 · n=263.09+1.55 · n=262.51+1.34 · n=262.93+1.17 · n=25—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT1.60+1.43 · n=271.30+0.87 · n=271.23+0.44 · n=271.99+0.32 · n=261.97+0.48 · n=262.54+1.03 · n=263.57+2.00 · n=264.50+2.66 · n=264.24+2.57 · n=256.40+2.00 · n=25KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA1.66+1.14 · n=271.74+1.28 · n=272.21+1.76 · n=272.14+1.75 · n=262.23+1.84 · n=262.38+0.73 · n=262.70+0.40 · n=263.22+0.24 · n=264.41+0.43 · n=25—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO2.83+2.17 · n=272.11+1.08 · n=272.18+0.70 · n=272.19+0.39 · n=262.00+0.31 · n=262.45−0.27 · n=262.75−0.50 · n=262.87−0.74 · n=263.72−0.92 · n=25—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN5.94+5.91 · n=275.79+5.79 · n=276.27+6.09 · n=276.53+6.42 · n=267.15+6.89 · n=267.06+7.01 · n=266.88+6.06 · n=266.92+5.68 · n=267.00+6.23 · n=257.30+6.45 · n=25KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · PANG · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.