Model
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)
pangu_ifs
source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.95−0.91 · n=29 | 3.04−0.59 · n=29 | 2.99−0.30 · n=29 | 3.21−0.40 · n=29 | 3.40−0.37 · n=29 | 3.54+0.44 · n=29 | 4.26+0.87 · n=29 | 4.50+1.02 · n=29 | 4.94+1.29 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | — | 2.42+0.54 · n=29 | 2.44+0.28 · n=29 | 2.46+0.36 · n=29 | 2.53+0.54 · n=29 | 2.99+0.57 · n=29 | 3.71+0.96 · n=29 | 4.29+0.96 · n=29 | 5.13+1.16 · n=29 | 5.75+0.43 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | — | 1.78−0.53 · n=28 | 1.89+0.20 · n=28 | 2.34+0.36 · n=28 | 2.48+1.13 · n=28 | 3.31+0.87 · n=28 | 3.79+1.46 · n=28 | 4.96+1.94 · n=28 | 5.51+2.47 · n=28 | 6.04+3.60 · n=28 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.13−0.29 · n=29 | 1.92+0.24 · n=29 | 2.04+0.58 · n=29 | 2.56+1.11 · n=29 | 3.50+1.50 · n=29 | 3.92+1.75 · n=29 | 4.79+1.89 · n=29 | 5.14+1.66 · n=29 | 5.22+2.17 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | — | 2.94−0.47 · n=29 | 3.22−0.55 · n=29 | 3.37−0.41 · n=29 | 3.70−0.80 · n=29 | 5.44−1.18 · n=29 | 5.83−0.82 · n=29 | 6.39−0.17 · n=29 | 6.23−1.53 · n=29 | 9.33−2.29 · n=29 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.49−1.87 · n=29 | 2.99−2.22 · n=29 | 3.07−2.21 · n=29 | 3.14−2.07 · n=29 | 3.14−1.86 · n=29 | 3.76−1.88 · n=29 | 3.99−2.27 · n=29 | 4.64−1.61 · n=29 | 6.26−3.18 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.86−0.55 · n=29 | 2.00−0.19 · n=29 | 1.99+0.10 · n=29 | 2.38+0.70 · n=29 | 2.90+0.86 · n=29 | 3.07+0.98 · n=29 | 4.53+1.03 · n=29 | 5.06+0.94 · n=29 | 5.00+2.25 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | — | 1.85−0.68 · n=29 | 2.10−1.05 · n=29 | 2.25−1.00 · n=29 | 2.29−1.04 · n=29 | 2.52−1.04 · n=29 | 2.97−0.77 · n=29 | 3.55−0.40 · n=29 | 3.83−0.30 · n=29 | 4.88−0.02 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.14−2.69 · n=29 | 3.15−2.68 · n=29 | 3.12−2.39 · n=29 | 3.07−1.98 · n=29 | 3.43−1.80 · n=29 | 4.14−1.29 · n=29 | 4.63−1.08 · n=29 | 5.02−2.27 · n=29 | 5.98−3.09 · n=29 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.68−0.93 · n=29 | 2.79−1.11 · n=29 | 2.95−1.35 · n=29 | 3.16−1.80 · n=29 | 3.62−2.32 · n=29 | 4.37−2.40 · n=29 | 4.56−2.53 · n=29 | 5.32−2.59 · n=29 | 6.39−2.85 · n=29 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.52−0.70 · n=29 | 1.70−0.87 · n=29 | 1.83−1.01 · n=29 | 2.04−1.17 · n=29 | 2.23−1.23 · n=29 | 2.31−1.31 · n=29 | 2.35−1.01 · n=29 | 2.48−1.03 · n=29 | 2.73−1.02 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.57−1.47 · n=29 | 2.46−0.94 · n=29 | 2.50−0.45 · n=29 | 2.64−0.50 · n=29 | 3.72−0.11 · n=29 | 4.26−1.07 · n=29 | 5.34−0.70 · n=29 | 5.41+0.73 · n=29 | 6.78−0.18 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.78−0.62 · n=29 | 2.17−1.09 · n=29 | 2.37−1.41 · n=29 | 2.54−1.64 · n=29 | 2.56−1.54 · n=29 | 3.18−1.02 · n=29 | 3.37−0.34 · n=29 | 3.95−0.08 · n=29 | 4.60+0.04 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.81+0.32 · n=28 | 2.74+0.81 · n=28 | 2.73+1.13 · n=28 | 3.12+1.78 · n=28 | 3.48+1.94 · n=28 | 3.66+1.98 · n=28 | 5.00+2.06 · n=28 | 5.09+1.97 · n=28 | 4.99+3.24 · n=28 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.36+1.13 · n=29 | 2.49+0.91 · n=29 | 2.57+0.97 · n=29 | 2.87+0.95 · n=29 | 3.33+1.43 · n=29 | 4.26+0.85 · n=29 | 4.76+0.31 · n=29 | 4.84+0.44 · n=29 | 5.48−0.64 · n=29 | |
| KORD | — | 1.79−0.51 · n=29 | 2.12+0.19 · n=29 | 2.47+0.78 · n=29 | 2.85+0.95 · n=29 | 2.98+1.55 · n=29 | 4.70+1.86 · n=29 | 5.24+1.18 · n=29 | 4.81+1.88 · n=29 | 5.14+1.72 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.27−0.73 · n=29 | 2.12−0.30 · n=29 | 2.18−0.03 · n=29 | 2.55+0.58 · n=29 | 3.24+0.82 · n=29 | 3.55+0.97 · n=29 | 4.52+1.08 · n=29 | 5.27+0.71 · n=29 | 4.86+1.73 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | — | 2.69−1.00 · n=29 | 2.79−0.77 · n=29 | 2.86−0.63 · n=29 | 3.30−0.24 · n=29 | 3.47−0.25 · n=29 | 4.06+0.08 · n=29 | 4.68+0.25 · n=29 | 5.71−0.25 · n=29 | 6.33−0.89 · n=29 | |
| KSAN | — | 3.09−2.07 · n=29 | 3.19−2.21 · n=29 | 3.36−2.49 · n=29 | 3.73−2.94 · n=29 | 4.11−3.34 · n=29 | 4.51−3.39 · n=29 | 4.81−3.70 · n=29 | 4.97−3.62 · n=29 | 5.85−4.09 · n=29 | |
| KSAT | — | 1.49−0.08 · n=29 | 1.70−0.43 · n=29 | 1.80−0.56 · n=29 | 2.04−0.46 · n=29 | 2.54−0.50 · n=29 | 2.92−0.14 · n=29 | 3.00−0.22 · n=29 | 3.95−0.02 · n=29 | 4.48−0.39 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.17+0.21 · n=29 | 2.23+0.48 · n=29 | 2.39+0.67 · n=29 | 2.62+0.89 · n=29 | 2.86+0.72 · n=29 | 2.83+0.16 · n=29 | 3.11−0.51 · n=29 | 3.51−0.02 · n=29 | 3.62+0.30 · n=29 | |
| KSFO | — | 2.71−0.78 · n=29 | 2.92−0.99 · n=29 | 3.00−1.08 · n=29 | 3.13−1.33 · n=29 | 3.56−1.82 · n=29 | 4.01−2.27 · n=29 | 4.43−2.54 · n=29 | 4.64−2.89 · n=29 | 4.83−2.80 · n=29 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.62+2.45 · n=29 | 2.97+2.89 · n=29 | 3.39+3.20 · n=29 | 4.06+3.81 · n=29 | 4.74+4.03 · n=29 | 4.81+4.18 · n=29 | 5.97+4.22 · n=29 | 6.36+4.01 · n=29 | 6.41+5.21 · n=29 |
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.96+2.74 · n=29 | 3.37+3.12 · n=29 | 3.55+3.22 · n=29 | 3.91+3.06 · n=29 | 4.12+3.53 · n=29 | 4.64+4.45 · n=29 | 5.54+3.56 · n=29 | 5.15+2.55 · n=29 | 5.53+2.35 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | — | 1.79−0.65 · n=29 | 1.99−0.72 · n=29 | 1.93−0.69 · n=29 | 1.99−0.57 · n=29 | 2.37−0.81 · n=29 | 3.34−0.97 · n=29 | 3.62−1.77 · n=29 | 4.46−1.18 · n=29 | 5.27−1.81 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.12+0.40 · n=28 | 2.53+0.87 · n=28 | 3.09+0.75 · n=28 | 3.28+1.55 · n=28 | 4.18+0.86 · n=28 | 4.32+1.34 · n=28 | 6.27+2.20 · n=28 | 5.69+2.33 · n=28 | 7.32+3.59 · n=28 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.40+2.10 · n=29 | 2.61+2.32 · n=29 | 2.82+2.50 · n=29 | 3.43+2.71 · n=29 | 4.19+3.12 · n=29 | 4.57+3.77 · n=29 | 6.14+4.25 · n=29 | 6.77+2.66 · n=29 | 6.53+3.03 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | — | 1.88+1.06 · n=29 | 2.43+0.93 · n=29 | 2.39+1.25 · n=29 | 3.08+1.04 · n=29 | 5.29+0.70 · n=29 | 5.73+1.65 · n=29 | 6.37+3.16 · n=29 | 5.89+0.70 · n=29 | 10.12−0.38 · n=29 | |
| KDFW | — | 1.34−0.62 · n=29 | 1.65−0.82 · n=29 | 1.83−0.73 · n=29 | 2.04−0.72 · n=29 | 2.19−0.73 · n=29 | 3.29−1.22 · n=29 | 3.59−2.27 · n=29 | 4.33−1.57 · n=29 | 5.28−2.82 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.59+1.01 · n=29 | 1.74+1.08 · n=29 | 1.88+1.17 · n=29 | 2.47+1.57 · n=29 | 2.87+1.49 · n=29 | 3.10+1.50 · n=29 | 5.39+1.98 · n=29 | 5.83+1.02 · n=29 | 5.82+2.58 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | — | 2.44−0.72 · n=29 | 2.67−1.06 · n=29 | 2.54−0.94 · n=29 | 2.64−1.03 · n=29 | 2.44−1.36 · n=29 | 3.42−1.86 · n=29 | 4.09−1.72 · n=29 | 4.14−2.10 · n=29 | 4.99−2.27 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | — | 2.23−1.67 · n=29 | 2.44−1.78 · n=29 | 2.30−1.34 · n=29 | 2.29−0.69 · n=29 | 3.16−0.61 · n=29 | 4.03+0.22 · n=29 | 4.87+0.42 · n=29 | 4.98−1.26 · n=29 | 5.97−2.13 · n=29 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.89−1.50 · n=29 | 3.18−1.80 · n=29 | 3.52−2.04 · n=29 | 3.91−2.75 · n=29 | 4.40−3.47 · n=29 | 5.08−3.55 · n=29 | 5.51−3.64 · n=29 | 6.06−3.59 · n=29 | 7.66−3.73 · n=29 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.48−0.27 · n=29 | 1.91−0.65 · n=29 | 2.30−0.94 · n=29 | 2.64−1.19 · n=29 | 2.49−1.16 · n=29 | 2.53−1.11 · n=29 | 2.70−0.46 · n=29 | 2.74−0.59 · n=29 | 3.08−0.70 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | — | 1.56+0.19 · n=29 | 1.51+0.77 · n=29 | 2.11+1.14 · n=29 | 2.34+0.57 · n=29 | 3.65+1.70 · n=29 | 3.94+0.16 · n=29 | 4.84+0.79 · n=29 | 5.25+2.41 · n=29 | 7.06+0.98 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.29−0.39 · n=29 | 1.60−0.65 · n=29 | 1.88−1.08 · n=29 | 2.06−1.22 · n=29 | 1.73−1.14 · n=29 | 2.30−0.97 · n=29 | 2.72−0.79 · n=29 | 3.20−0.94 · n=29 | 3.57−1.15 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | — | 4.30+4.30 · n=28 | 4.52+4.51 · n=28 | 4.61+4.61 · n=28 | 5.37+5.06 · n=28 | 5.60+4.96 · n=28 | 5.49+4.73 · n=28 | 7.01+5.06 · n=28 | 6.84+4.41 · n=28 | 6.85+5.75 · n=28 | |
| KOKC | — | 1.92+0.58 · n=29 | 2.20+0.44 · n=29 | 2.36+0.52 · n=29 | 2.90+0.37 · n=29 | 3.23+0.56 · n=29 | 4.31+0.06 · n=29 | 4.28−0.93 · n=29 | 5.24−1.63 · n=29 | 5.09−2.09 · n=29 | |
| KORD | — | 2.09−1.83 · n=29 | 2.14−1.32 · n=29 | 2.01−0.90 · n=29 | 2.66−0.85 · n=29 | 2.45−0.10 · n=29 | 3.91−0.27 · n=29 | 4.29−0.92 · n=29 | 3.61+0.22 · n=29 | 3.27−0.34 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.15+1.71 · n=29 | 2.07+1.67 · n=29 | 2.27+1.63 · n=29 | 2.97+2.02 · n=29 | 3.93+2.12 · n=29 | 4.36+2.43 · n=29 | 5.22+3.09 · n=29 | 5.68+1.49 · n=29 | 5.51+2.72 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | — | 1.66+0.32 · n=29 | 1.87+0.63 · n=29 | 1.93+0.87 · n=29 | 2.73+1.54 · n=29 | 3.00+1.51 · n=29 | 3.69+1.72 · n=29 | 4.23+1.98 · n=29 | 5.45+1.59 · n=29 | 5.98+1.26 · n=29 | |
| KSAN | — | 4.80−4.80 · n=29 | 4.92−4.92 · n=29 | 5.24−5.24 · n=29 | 5.86−5.86 · n=29 | 6.36−6.36 · n=29 | 6.61−6.44 · n=29 | 7.14−6.76 · n=29 | 7.01−6.60 · n=29 | 8.14−7.17 · n=29 | |
| KSAT | — | 1.53−0.09 · n=29 | 1.61−0.19 · n=29 | 1.71−0.40 · n=29 | 1.98−0.30 · n=29 | 2.22−0.69 · n=29 | 3.33−0.71 · n=29 | 3.05−1.42 · n=29 | 3.93−0.97 · n=29 | 4.17−1.03 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.10+1.14 · n=29 | 2.08+1.13 · n=29 | 2.56+1.00 · n=29 | 2.90+0.95 · n=29 | 3.04+0.69 · n=29 | 2.60+0.05 · n=29 | 3.70−0.90 · n=29 | 3.68+0.07 · n=29 | 3.70+1.09 · n=29 | |
| KSFO | — | 3.19−1.42 · n=29 | 3.56−1.78 · n=29 | 3.64−2.07 · n=29 | 4.14−2.41 · n=29 | 4.81−3.16 · n=29 | 5.49−3.76 · n=29 | 6.27−4.01 · n=29 | 6.32−4.56 · n=29 | 6.80−4.20 · n=29 | |
| KTTN | — | 3.08+3.08 · n=29 | 3.13+3.13 · n=29 | 3.24+3.20 · n=29 | 3.85+3.58 · n=29 | 4.48+3.62 · n=29 | 4.63+3.84 · n=29 | 6.52+4.44 · n=29 | 6.34+3.13 · n=29 | 6.35+4.57 · n=29 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 3.86−3.64 · n=29 | 3.71−3.08 · n=29 | 3.37−2.33 · n=29 | 3.28−2.22 · n=29 | 3.26−2.53 · n=29 | 3.38−1.60 · n=29 | 4.40+0.01 · n=29 | 4.80+0.56 · n=29 | 5.11+1.84 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | — | 2.48+1.72 · n=29 | 2.35+1.38 · n=29 | 2.40+1.60 · n=29 | 2.58+2.08 · n=29 | 2.98+2.51 · n=29 | 3.94+3.64 · n=29 | 5.13+4.47 · n=29 | 5.52+4.64 · n=29 | 5.55+3.60 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | — | 1.73−0.87 · n=28 | 1.33+0.32 · n=28 | 1.67+0.80 · n=28 | 2.25+1.68 · n=28 | 2.84+1.71 · n=28 | 3.14+2.07 · n=28 | 4.18+2.17 · n=28 | 5.29+3.60 · n=28 | 5.21+4.01 · n=28 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.00−1.69 · n=29 | 1.50−0.56 · n=29 | 1.41+0.07 · n=29 | 2.09+0.85 · n=29 | 2.99+1.29 · n=29 | 3.50+1.36 · n=29 | 4.05+0.99 · n=29 | 4.42+1.50 · n=29 | 4.01+2.34 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | — | 3.82−2.75 · n=29 | 3.99−3.21 · n=29 | 4.21−3.06 · n=29 | 4.41−3.90 · n=29 | 5.56−4.06 · n=29 | 5.73−4.14 · n=29 | 5.61−4.40 · n=29 | 5.97−4.60 · n=29 | 7.91−5.42 · n=29 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.75−2.53 · n=29 | 3.68−3.37 · n=29 | 3.70−3.40 · n=29 | 3.34−2.91 · n=29 | 3.17−2.52 · n=29 | 3.08−1.63 · n=29 | 3.99−1.52 · n=29 | 4.20−0.41 · n=29 | 6.78−2.56 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.28−0.64 · n=29 | 1.57+0.06 · n=29 | 1.73+0.53 · n=29 | 2.16+1.29 · n=29 | 2.72+1.68 · n=29 | 3.06+2.00 · n=29 | 4.13+1.45 · n=29 | 4.67+2.02 · n=29 | 4.36+2.95 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | — | 1.54−0.81 · n=29 | 1.80−1.27 · n=29 | 1.92−1.01 · n=29 | 1.99−0.76 · n=29 | 2.47−0.29 · n=29 | 2.99+0.53 · n=29 | 3.42+1.47 · n=29 | 3.58+1.81 · n=29 | 5.67+2.65 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | — | 4.39−4.39 · n=29 | 4.51−4.45 · n=29 | 4.36−4.15 · n=29 | 4.07−3.89 · n=29 | 3.92−3.40 · n=29 | 4.19−3.35 · n=29 | 4.50−3.19 · n=29 | 4.46−3.68 · n=29 | 5.54−4.25 · n=29 | |
| KLAX | — | 1.99−0.47 · n=29 | 1.88−0.35 · n=29 | 2.13−0.39 · n=29 | 2.21−0.55 · n=29 | 2.46−0.84 · n=29 | 3.25−0.99 · n=29 | 2.82−1.11 · n=29 | 3.27−1.26 · n=29 | 4.08−1.27 · n=29 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.36−0.82 · n=29 | 1.39−0.71 · n=29 | 1.19−0.63 · n=29 | 1.31−0.73 · n=29 | 1.59−0.80 · n=29 | 1.62−0.97 · n=29 | 1.73−1.01 · n=29 | 2.08−0.84 · n=29 | 2.33−0.71 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.74−2.23 · n=29 | 2.26−1.79 · n=29 | 2.14−1.05 · n=29 | 2.26−0.74 · n=29 | 3.10−0.53 · n=29 | 4.09−1.66 · n=29 | 5.38−1.81 · n=29 | 4.77+0.14 · n=29 | 6.30−0.09 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | — | 2.00−1.22 · n=29 | 2.46−2.18 · n=29 | 2.87−2.70 · n=29 | 3.27−3.15 · n=29 | 3.38−2.94 · n=29 | 4.24−1.86 · n=29 | 4.35−0.46 · n=29 | 4.95+0.32 · n=29 | 6.27+0.76 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.11−1.61 · n=28 | 1.86−0.73 · n=28 | 1.72−0.13 · n=28 | 2.15+0.66 · n=28 | 2.41+1.10 · n=28 | 2.77+1.38 · n=28 | 4.01+1.08 · n=28 | 4.16+1.43 · n=28 | 3.95+2.51 · n=28 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.20+0.35 · n=29 | 2.25−0.17 · n=29 | 2.56−0.18 · n=29 | 2.79+0.11 · n=29 | 3.30+1.06 · n=29 | 4.14+0.73 · n=29 | 5.40+0.65 · n=29 | 4.88+1.43 · n=29 | 5.99−0.25 · n=29 | |
| KORD | — | 1.58+0.01 · n=29 | 1.89+1.34 · n=29 | 2.75+2.33 · n=29 | 3.57+2.99 · n=29 | 3.74+3.42 · n=29 | 5.81+4.32 · n=29 | 6.18+3.65 · n=29 | 6.00+3.85 · n=29 | 6.15+3.89 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.23−1.89 · n=29 | 1.88−0.81 · n=29 | 2.08−0.27 · n=29 | 2.32+0.48 · n=29 | 2.72+0.90 · n=29 | 3.25+1.03 · n=29 | 4.06+0.58 · n=29 | 4.89+1.01 · n=29 | 4.43+1.84 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | — | 3.49−2.71 · n=29 | 3.38−2.64 · n=29 | 3.07−2.57 · n=29 | 3.25−2.51 · n=29 | 3.35−2.32 · n=29 | 3.49−1.78 · n=29 | 4.29−1.97 · n=29 | 4.92−1.98 · n=29 | 6.12−3.48 · n=29 | |
| KSAN | — | 2.21+0.99 · n=29 | 2.21+0.86 · n=29 | 2.01+0.69 · n=29 | 2.02+0.43 · n=29 | 2.28+0.34 · n=29 | 2.85+0.31 · n=29 | 2.43+0.13 · n=29 | 2.72+0.14 · n=29 | 3.44−0.03 · n=29 | |
| KSAT | — | 1.40−0.39 · n=29 | 1.67−0.81 · n=29 | 1.77−0.83 · n=29 | 2.17−0.41 · n=29 | 2.70−0.03 · n=29 | 2.58+1.01 · n=29 | 3.18+1.72 · n=29 | 3.88+1.97 · n=29 | 4.06+1.18 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | — | 1.44−0.91 · n=29 | 1.56−0.33 · n=29 | 1.63+0.12 · n=29 | 1.62+0.62 · n=29 | 2.04+0.82 · n=29 | 2.40+0.07 · n=29 | 2.21−0.55 · n=29 | 2.85−0.27 · n=29 | 3.06−0.76 · n=29 | |
| KSFO | — | 1.98−1.15 · n=29 | 2.27−1.19 · n=29 | 2.34−1.11 · n=29 | 2.30−1.14 · n=29 | 2.36−1.14 · n=29 | 2.81−1.41 · n=29 | 3.00−1.57 · n=29 | 3.28−1.79 · n=29 | 3.23−2.09 · n=29 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.49+2.40 · n=29 | 3.41+3.36 · n=29 | 4.06+3.74 · n=29 | 4.86+4.56 · n=29 | 5.23+4.98 · n=29 | 5.32+5.22 · n=29 | 6.15+4.63 · n=29 | 6.44+5.14 · n=29 | 6.69+6.07 · n=29 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.62+0.05 · n=29 | 1.99+0.43 · n=29 | 2.01+0.53 · n=29 | 2.56+0.37 · n=29 | 2.75+0.84 · n=29 | 2.76+1.76 · n=29 | 4.30+0.87 · n=29 | 4.85−0.13 · n=29 | 5.80−0.34 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | — | 5.36−5.07 · n=29 | 5.54−5.13 · n=29 | 5.58−5.10 · n=29 | 5.68−4.98 · n=29 | 6.12−5.23 · n=29 | 6.55−5.38 · n=29 | 6.75−6.18 · n=29 | 7.08−5.59 · n=29 | 7.91−6.22 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.48−1.24 · n=29 | 2.74−0.78 · n=29 | 3.33−0.98 · n=29 | 3.37−0.29 · n=29 | 4.35−0.89 · n=29 | 4.89−0.45 · n=29 | 6.03+0.48 · n=29 | 5.89+0.50 · n=29 | 7.26+2.24 · n=29 | |
| KDCA | — | 1.65+0.27 · n=29 | 1.79+0.49 · n=29 | 1.90+0.67 · n=29 | 2.50+0.89 · n=29 | 3.55+1.30 · n=29 | 3.44+1.95 · n=29 | 5.29+2.43 · n=29 | 6.42+0.83 · n=29 | 6.29+1.20 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | — | 3.98−3.98 · n=29 | 4.17−4.11 · n=29 | 3.87−3.78 · n=29 | 4.40−4.00 · n=29 | 6.21−4.33 · n=29 | 6.83−3.39 · n=29 | 6.18−1.88 · n=29 | 7.25−4.34 · n=29 | 10.50−5.42 · n=29 | |
| KDFW | — | 4.12−4.07 · n=29 | 4.49−4.27 · n=29 | 4.50−4.18 · n=29 | 4.59−4.17 · n=29 | 4.86−4.18 · n=29 | 5.67−4.67 · n=29 | 6.46−5.72 · n=29 | 6.77−5.02 · n=29 | 7.31−6.27 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | — | 1.47−0.76 · n=29 | 1.59−0.70 · n=29 | 1.76−0.60 · n=29 | 2.12−0.20 · n=29 | 2.86−0.28 · n=29 | 3.08−0.28 · n=29 | 5.29+0.21 · n=29 | 5.60−0.75 · n=29 | 5.69+0.81 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | — | 4.87−4.30 · n=29 | 5.11−4.65 · n=29 | 5.05−4.52 · n=29 | 5.07−4.62 · n=29 | 5.37−4.95 · n=29 | 6.10−5.45 · n=29 | 6.16−5.30 · n=29 | 6.59−5.68 · n=29 | 6.71−5.86 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.37−3.32 · n=29 | 3.52−3.43 · n=29 | 3.25−2.99 · n=29 | 2.87−2.34 · n=29 | 3.62−2.26 · n=29 | 4.20−1.43 · n=29 | 4.81−1.23 · n=29 | 5.59−2.91 · n=29 | 6.61−3.77 · n=29 | |
| KLAX | — | 4.75−4.26 · n=29 | 5.13−4.56 · n=29 | 5.40−4.80 · n=29 | 5.90−5.51 · n=29 | 6.77−6.23 · n=29 | 7.06−6.31 · n=29 | 7.65−6.40 · n=29 | 7.88−6.35 · n=29 | 8.87−6.49 · n=29 | |
| KMIA | — | 2.20−2.20 · n=29 | 2.61−2.58 · n=29 | 2.99−2.87 · n=29 | 3.39−3.12 · n=29 | 3.32−3.10 · n=29 | 3.32−3.04 · n=29 | 2.88−2.40 · n=29 | 2.78−2.52 · n=29 | 3.24−2.63 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | — | 3.48−3.13 · n=29 | 2.84−2.54 · n=29 | 2.72−2.17 · n=29 | 3.72−2.74 · n=29 | 4.34−1.61 · n=29 | 5.23−3.16 · n=29 | 6.34−2.53 · n=29 | 5.87−0.90 · n=29 | 7.91−2.33 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | — | 2.74−2.70 · n=29 | 3.00−2.96 · n=29 | 3.42−3.39 · n=29 | 3.56−3.53 · n=29 | 3.47−3.45 · n=29 | 3.58−3.28 · n=29 | 3.68−3.10 · n=29 | 3.86−3.25 · n=29 | 4.39−3.46 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.34+2.11 · n=29 | 2.58+2.28 · n=29 | 2.66+2.43 · n=29 | 3.73+2.88 · n=29 | 4.08+2.75 · n=29 | 4.14+2.73 · n=29 | 6.05+3.17 · n=29 | 5.87+2.38 · n=29 | 6.00+3.88 · n=29 | |
| KOKC | — | 3.33−2.60 · n=29 | 3.76−2.74 · n=29 | 3.87−2.66 · n=29 | 4.28−2.80 · n=29 | 4.24−2.61 · n=29 | 5.16−3.11 · n=29 | 5.95−4.10 · n=29 | 6.96−4.81 · n=29 | 7.08−5.27 · n=29 | |
| KORD | — | 4.10−4.10 · n=29 | 3.67−3.58 · n=29 | 3.36−3.17 · n=29 | 3.81−3.12 · n=29 | 3.29−2.37 · n=29 | 4.66−2.53 · n=29 | 5.00−3.19 · n=29 | 4.21−2.05 · n=29 | 3.90−2.61 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | — | 1.40−0.19 · n=29 | 1.29−0.23 · n=29 | 1.39−0.27 · n=29 | 1.87+0.12 · n=29 | 2.98+0.23 · n=29 | 3.57+0.54 · n=29 | 4.88+1.19 · n=29 | 5.76−0.41 · n=29 | 5.52+0.82 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | — | 2.56−2.33 · n=29 | 2.46−2.03 · n=29 | 2.47−1.79 · n=29 | 2.60−1.12 · n=29 | 3.01−1.15 · n=29 | 3.65−0.93 · n=29 | 4.19−0.68 · n=29 | 5.48−1.07 · n=29 | 6.22−1.40 · n=29 | |
| KSAN | — | 7.21−7.21 · n=29 | 7.34−7.34 · n=29 | 7.66−7.66 · n=29 | 8.28−8.28 · n=29 | 8.78−8.78 · n=29 | 8.96−8.85 · n=29 | 9.29−9.17 · n=29 | 9.04−9.02 · n=29 | 9.87−9.58 · n=29 | |
| KSAT | — | 3.70−3.70 · n=29 | 3.90−3.79 · n=29 | 4.13−4.00 · n=29 | 4.24−3.91 · n=29 | 4.76−4.29 · n=29 | 5.28−4.31 · n=29 | 5.36−5.02 · n=29 | 5.71−4.57 · n=29 | 6.08−4.63 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.16−0.33 · n=29 | 2.17−0.34 · n=29 | 2.39−0.47 · n=29 | 2.90−0.52 · n=29 | 3.13−0.78 · n=29 | 3.20−1.42 · n=29 | 4.58−2.37 · n=29 | 4.22−1.40 · n=29 | 3.99−0.38 · n=29 | |
| KSFO | — | 5.16−5.16 · n=29 | 5.52−5.52 · n=29 | 5.82−5.82 · n=29 | 6.15−6.15 · n=29 | 6.90−6.90 · n=29 | 7.74−7.51 · n=29 | 8.18−7.75 · n=29 | 8.46−8.30 · n=29 | 9.18−7.94 · n=29 | |
| KTTN | — | 1.54+1.15 · n=29 | 1.52+1.20 · n=29 | 1.73+1.27 · n=29 | 2.65+1.65 · n=29 | 3.13+1.68 · n=29 | 3.38+1.91 · n=29 | 5.76+2.51 · n=29 | 5.80+1.20 · n=29 | 5.69+2.64 · n=29 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 3.23−2.14 · n=29 | 3.04−1.58 · n=29 | 2.87−0.83 · n=29 | 2.77−0.71 · n=29 | 2.39−1.02 · n=29 | 2.99−0.10 · n=29 | 4.54+1.52 · n=29 | 5.17+2.06 · n=29 | 5.54+3.35 · n=29 | |
| KAUS | — | 3.58+3.44 · n=29 | 3.29+3.10 · n=29 | 3.46+3.32 · n=29 | 3.82+3.80 · n=29 | 4.28+4.23 · n=29 | 5.38+5.35 · n=29 | 6.43+6.19 · n=29 | 6.92+6.35 · n=29 | 6.56+5.32 · n=29 | |
| KBOS | — | 1.81+1.21 · n=29 | 2.41+2.30 · n=29 | 3.19+2.83 · n=29 | 3.79+3.74 · n=29 | 4.34+3.76 · n=29 | 4.44+4.13 · n=29 | 5.33+4.28 · n=29 | 6.54+5.64 · n=29 | 6.33+6.07 · n=29 | |
| KDCA | — | 1.27−0.04 · n=29 | 1.63+1.09 · n=29 | 1.97+1.71 · n=29 | 2.88+2.50 · n=29 | 3.68+2.94 · n=29 | 4.00+3.00 · n=29 | 4.74+2.64 · n=29 | 5.23+3.15 · n=29 | 4.71+3.99 · n=29 | |
| KDEN | — | 3.33−0.73 · n=29 | 3.24−1.20 · n=29 | 3.37−1.04 · n=29 | 3.42−1.88 · n=29 | 4.37−2.05 · n=29 | 4.68−2.13 · n=29 | 4.41−2.39 · n=29 | 5.20−2.59 · n=29 | 6.52−3.41 · n=29 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.32−0.66 · n=29 | 3.34−1.50 · n=29 | 3.55−1.54 · n=29 | 3.13−1.04 · n=29 | 2.86−0.65 · n=29 | 3.53+0.24 · n=29 | 3.98+0.35 · n=29 | 4.68+1.46 · n=29 | 5.97−0.69 · n=29 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.02+1.73 · n=29 | 2.68+2.44 · n=29 | 3.19+2.90 · n=29 | 3.81+3.67 · n=29 | 4.41+4.06 · n=29 | 4.51+4.37 · n=29 | 5.32+3.82 · n=29 | 5.93+4.39 · n=29 | 5.66+5.32 · n=29 | |
| KIAH | — | 2.11+1.17 · n=29 | 2.04+0.71 · n=29 | 2.67+0.97 · n=29 | 2.63+1.22 · n=29 | 3.35+1.69 · n=29 | 3.78+2.51 · n=29 | 4.49+3.45 · n=29 | 4.79+3.79 · n=29 | 6.52+4.63 · n=29 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.10−2.81 · n=29 | 3.28−2.87 · n=29 | 3.12−2.56 · n=29 | 2.84−2.31 · n=29 | 2.72−1.82 · n=29 | 3.22−1.77 · n=29 | 3.73−1.61 · n=29 | 3.91−2.10 · n=29 | 4.74−2.67 · n=29 | |
| KLAX | — | 1.91+1.27 · n=29 | 2.24+1.39 · n=29 | 2.24+1.34 · n=29 | 2.35+1.19 · n=29 | 2.44+0.89 · n=29 | 3.24+0.74 · n=29 | 2.51+0.63 · n=29 | 2.93+0.48 · n=29 | 3.78+0.46 · n=29 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.47+0.90 · n=29 | 1.67+1.02 · n=29 | 1.59+1.09 · n=29 | 1.58+1.00 · n=29 | 1.71+0.92 · n=29 | 1.66+0.76 · n=29 | 1.74+0.72 · n=29 | 2.27+0.88 · n=29 | 2.44+1.01 · n=29 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.69+0.01 · n=29 | 2.81+0.46 · n=29 | 2.69+1.19 · n=29 | 3.00+1.50 · n=29 | 3.52+1.71 · n=29 | 4.16+0.58 · n=29 | 5.75+0.44 · n=29 | 5.22+2.38 · n=29 | 6.24+2.15 · n=29 | |
| KMSY | — | 2.22+0.78 · n=29 | 1.83−0.18 · n=29 | 2.00−0.70 · n=29 | 2.03−1.15 · n=29 | 2.30−0.94 · n=29 | 3.40+0.14 · n=29 | 4.57+1.53 · n=29 | 5.48+2.32 · n=29 | 7.31+2.75 · n=29 | |
| KNYC | — | 1.98−0.17 · n=29 | 2.07+0.69 · n=29 | 2.21+1.27 · n=29 | 2.91+2.07 · n=29 | 3.23+2.44 · n=29 | 3.53+2.82 · n=29 | 4.26+2.35 · n=29 | 4.86+2.87 · n=29 | 4.59+3.81 · n=29 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.54+1.81 · n=29 | 2.39+1.29 · n=29 | 2.62+1.28 · n=29 | 2.92+1.57 · n=29 | 3.60+2.52 · n=29 | 4.45+2.19 · n=29 | 5.41+2.11 · n=29 | 4.88+2.89 · n=29 | 5.98+1.22 · n=29 | |
| KORD | — | 1.90+1.49 · n=29 | 2.88+2.82 · n=29 | 3.95+3.81 · n=29 | 4.66+4.48 · n=29 | 4.90+4.90 · n=29 | 6.80+5.80 · n=29 | 6.96+5.13 · n=29 | 6.48+5.33 · n=29 | 6.91+5.37 · n=29 | |
| KPHL | — | 1.61+0.09 · n=29 | 1.88+1.17 · n=29 | 2.25+1.71 · n=29 | 2.91+2.46 · n=29 | 3.58+2.88 · n=29 | 4.05+3.00 · n=29 | 4.79+2.56 · n=29 | 5.85+2.99 · n=29 | 5.28+3.82 · n=29 | |
| KPHX | — | 2.93−1.41 · n=29 | 2.78−1.34 · n=29 | 2.43−1.28 · n=29 | 2.78−1.21 · n=29 | 2.83−1.03 · n=29 | 3.13−0.48 · n=29 | 3.88−0.67 · n=29 | 4.89−0.69 · n=29 | 5.70−2.18 · n=29 | |
| KSAN | — | 3.03+2.88 · n=29 | 2.94+2.75 · n=29 | 2.76+2.58 · n=29 | 2.62+2.32 · n=29 | 2.72+2.23 · n=29 | 3.26+2.20 · n=29 | 3.10+2.02 · n=29 | 3.37+2.03 · n=29 | 3.34+1.86 · n=29 | |
| KSAT | — | 1.36+0.59 · n=29 | 1.43+0.17 · n=29 | 1.70+0.15 · n=29 | 2.30+0.56 · n=29 | 2.80+0.95 · n=29 | 2.90+1.99 · n=29 | 3.82+2.70 · n=29 | 4.46+2.95 · n=29 | 4.25+2.16 · n=29 | |
| KSEA | — | 1.42+0.93 · n=29 | 1.80+1.50 · n=29 | 2.09+1.96 · n=29 | 2.59+2.45 · n=29 | 2.89+2.65 · n=29 | 2.78+1.91 · n=29 | 2.45+1.29 · n=29 | 3.36+1.57 · n=29 | 3.20+1.08 · n=29 | |
| KSFO | — | 1.70−0.23 · n=29 | 1.93−0.27 · n=29 | 2.01−0.18 · n=29 | 2.00−0.21 · n=29 | 2.17−0.21 · n=29 | 2.60−0.48 · n=29 | 2.64−0.64 · n=29 | 2.97−0.86 · n=29 | 3.14−1.16 · n=29 | |
| KTTN | — | 5.46+5.46 · n=29 | 6.42+6.42 · n=29 | 6.89+6.80 · n=29 | 7.76+7.62 · n=29 | 8.22+8.04 · n=29 | 8.28+8.28 · n=29 | 8.58+7.69 · n=29 | 8.88+8.20 · n=29 | 9.14+9.13 · n=29 |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · PANG · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.