Model
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)
pangu_ifs
source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.89−1.54 · n=240 | 2.99−1.53 · n=239 | 2.99−1.41 · n=238 | 2.98−1.29 · n=237 | 3.29−1.19 · n=236 | 3.74−0.89 · n=235 | 4.30−1.00 · n=233 | 4.74−1.00 · n=232 | 5.13−0.36 · n=231 | |
| KAUS | — | 2.47−0.20 · n=240 | 2.58−0.17 · n=239 | 2.70+0.08 · n=238 | 2.93+0.22 · n=237 | 3.46+0.36 · n=236 | 4.10+0.48 · n=235 | 4.80+0.38 · n=234 | 5.32+0.55 · n=233 | 5.93+1.01 · n=232 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.30−0.95 · n=230 | 2.43−0.67 · n=229 | 2.60−0.43 · n=228 | 2.92−0.08 · n=226 | 3.33+0.06 · n=225 | 3.72+0.17 · n=224 | 4.67+0.22 · n=222 | 5.41+0.51 · n=221 | 5.78+0.18 · n=220 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.43−0.68 · n=240 | 2.58−0.39 · n=239 | 2.83−0.08 · n=238 | 3.21+0.23 · n=237 | 3.70+0.24 · n=236 | 4.26+0.30 · n=235 | 5.17+0.35 · n=233 | 5.77+0.62 · n=232 | 6.23+0.65 · n=231 | |
| KDEN | — | 3.33−0.56 · n=240 | 3.55−0.43 · n=239 | 3.78−0.22 · n=238 | 4.23+0.12 · n=237 | 4.96+0.32 · n=236 | 5.73+0.38 · n=234 | 6.09+0.50 · n=233 | 6.96+0.71 · n=232 | 8.16+0.37 · n=232 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.46−1.55 · n=238 | 2.80−1.58 · n=237 | 2.90−1.29 · n=235 | 3.14−1.02 · n=234 | 3.71−0.97 · n=234 | 4.50−1.03 · n=233 | 5.00−1.35 · n=231 | 5.77−0.87 · n=230 | 6.47−0.40 · n=229 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.47−1.30 · n=239 | 2.55−1.04 · n=238 | 2.80−0.88 · n=237 | 3.08−0.60 · n=236 | 3.49−0.49 · n=235 | 4.03−0.37 · n=234 | 5.01−0.32 · n=232 | 5.65−0.16 · n=231 | 6.34−0.08 · n=230 | |
| KIAH | — | 2.12−0.81 · n=241 | 2.27−0.92 · n=240 | 2.37−0.76 · n=239 | 2.52−0.71 · n=238 | 2.85−0.52 · n=237 | 3.31−0.35 · n=236 | 3.94−0.35 · n=234 | 4.41−0.37 · n=233 | 4.78+0.40 · n=232 | |
| KLAS | — | 4.04−3.80 · n=240 | 4.04−3.76 · n=240 | 3.98−3.58 · n=239 | 3.98−3.38 · n=238 | 4.05−3.17 · n=237 | 4.49−3.14 · n=235 | 4.89−3.22 · n=234 | 5.52−3.71 · n=233 | 6.33−4.11 · n=232 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.45−0.35 · n=241 | 2.48−0.35 · n=240 | 2.53−0.34 · n=239 | 2.65−0.42 · n=238 | 2.86−0.49 · n=237 | 3.03−0.78 · n=235 | 3.42−1.01 · n=234 | 3.76−1.18 · n=233 | 4.17−1.37 · n=232 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.79−0.77 · n=240 | 1.97−1.03 · n=238 | 2.14−1.15 · n=237 | 2.27−1.19 · n=236 | 2.42−1.33 · n=235 | 2.66−1.37 · n=234 | 2.88−1.26 · n=232 | 3.06−1.43 · n=232 | 3.38−1.44 · n=230 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.80−1.72 · n=241 | 2.92−1.44 · n=240 | 3.09−1.13 · n=239 | 3.51−1.06 · n=238 | 4.10−0.58 · n=237 | 4.95−0.38 · n=236 | 5.88−0.19 · n=235 | 6.63+0.37 · n=234 | 7.40+0.76 · n=233 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.91−0.43 · n=241 | 2.07−0.75 · n=240 | 2.13−0.88 · n=239 | 2.31−0.97 · n=238 | 2.54−0.96 · n=237 | 2.95−0.65 · n=236 | 3.34−0.77 · n=234 | 3.77−0.82 · n=233 | 4.03−0.01 · n=232 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.53−0.47 · n=239 | 2.59−0.15 · n=238 | 2.78+0.01 · n=237 | 3.08+0.31 · n=236 | 3.45+0.43 · n=235 | 4.02+0.52 · n=234 | 5.00+0.65 · n=233 | 5.54+0.74 · n=232 | 6.22+0.80 · n=231 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.74−0.21 · n=240 | 2.89−0.04 · n=239 | 3.10+0.16 · n=238 | 3.72+0.26 · n=237 | 4.30+0.35 · n=236 | 5.16+0.41 · n=235 | 5.72+0.26 · n=233 | 6.22+0.81 · n=232 | 7.23+1.11 · n=231 | |
| KORD | — | 2.46−1.04 · n=241 | 2.80−0.82 · n=240 | 3.11−0.45 · n=239 | 3.48−0.24 · n=238 | 4.01+0.15 · n=237 | 4.91+0.36 · n=236 | 5.84+0.48 · n=234 | 6.23+0.52 · n=233 | 7.06+0.95 · n=232 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.42−1.15 · n=241 | 2.50−0.85 · n=240 | 2.78−0.63 · n=239 | 3.15−0.35 · n=238 | 3.58−0.27 · n=237 | 4.07−0.10 · n=236 | 4.92−0.07 · n=234 | 5.66+0.14 · n=233 | 6.31+0.22 · n=232 | |
| KPHX | — | 3.55−2.51 · n=241 | 3.73−2.44 · n=240 | 3.78−2.25 · n=239 | 3.93−2.12 · n=238 | 4.22−2.19 · n=237 | 4.42−2.16 · n=235 | 4.76−2.25 · n=234 | 5.31−2.70 · n=233 | 5.81−2.81 · n=232 | |
| KSAN | — | 2.98−2.07 · n=240 | 3.13−2.18 · n=239 | 3.27−2.30 · n=238 | 3.42−2.45 · n=237 | 3.58−2.58 · n=236 | 3.79−2.74 · n=234 | 3.98−2.88 · n=233 | 4.21−3.09 · n=232 | 4.47−3.32 · n=231 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.38−0.86 · n=241 | 2.52−0.96 · n=240 | 2.60−0.85 · n=239 | 2.73−0.76 · n=238 | 3.20−0.66 · n=237 | 3.67−0.47 · n=236 | 4.22−0.49 · n=235 | 4.71−0.46 · n=234 | 5.25−0.02 · n=233 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.14−0.46 · n=241 | 2.23−0.25 · n=240 | 2.33−0.10 · n=239 | 2.45+0.08 · n=238 | 2.78+0.24 · n=237 | 3.20+0.44 · n=235 | 3.48+0.03 · n=234 | 4.08−0.02 · n=233 | 4.18−0.21 · n=232 | |
| KSFO | — | 2.31−1.09 · n=241 | 2.46−1.22 · n=240 | 2.52−1.27 · n=239 | 2.68−1.35 · n=238 | 2.84−1.53 · n=237 | 3.14−1.81 · n=235 | 3.44−2.20 · n=234 | 3.72−2.29 · n=233 | 3.78−2.26 · n=232 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.34+1.60 · n=236 | 2.65+1.91 · n=235 | 3.08+2.10 · n=234 | 3.49+2.37 · n=233 | 3.97+2.50 · n=232 | 4.58+2.64 · n=231 | 5.55+2.64 · n=229 | 6.34+2.85 · n=228 | 6.79+2.92 · n=227 |
Up to 4 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.23+0.30 · n=240 | 2.42+0.27 · n=239 | 2.53+0.29 · n=238 | 2.58+0.30 · n=237 | 3.07+0.54 · n=236 | 3.74+0.74 · n=235 | 4.38+0.14 · n=233 | 4.68+0.22 · n=232 | 5.29+0.54 · n=231 | |
| KAUS | — | 2.52−1.61 · n=240 | 2.66−1.53 · n=239 | 2.67−1.23 · n=238 | 2.82−1.03 · n=237 | 3.24−0.81 · n=236 | 4.13−1.15 · n=235 | 4.83−1.46 · n=234 | 5.07−1.07 · n=233 | 5.92−0.76 · n=232 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.18−0.30 · n=230 | 2.53−0.08 · n=229 | 2.76+0.05 · n=228 | 3.27+0.50 · n=226 | 3.96+0.66 · n=225 | 4.23+0.77 · n=224 | 5.85+0.84 · n=222 | 6.31+0.91 · n=221 | 6.76+0.67 · n=220 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.27+0.66 · n=240 | 2.53+0.85 · n=239 | 2.91+1.17 · n=238 | 3.42+1.53 · n=237 | 3.95+1.39 · n=236 | 4.56+1.76 · n=235 | 5.71+1.61 · n=233 | 6.37+1.69 · n=232 | 6.66+1.59 · n=231 | |
| KDEN | — | 2.41+0.24 · n=240 | 2.70+0.50 · n=239 | 2.83+0.81 · n=238 | 3.47+1.27 · n=237 | 4.47+1.49 · n=236 | 5.52+1.74 · n=234 | 5.83+1.86 · n=233 | 7.33+1.76 · n=232 | 8.57+1.15 · n=232 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.36−1.55 · n=238 | 2.50−1.46 · n=237 | 2.71−1.17 · n=235 | 3.16−0.86 · n=234 | 3.71−0.80 · n=234 | 4.49−1.22 · n=233 | 5.15−1.59 · n=231 | 5.56−0.95 · n=230 | 6.28−0.83 · n=229 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.28−0.46 · n=239 | 2.37−0.26 · n=238 | 2.71−0.16 · n=237 | 3.23+0.17 · n=236 | 3.62+0.28 · n=235 | 4.16+0.62 · n=234 | 5.55+0.42 · n=232 | 6.02+0.44 · n=231 | 6.78+0.61 · n=230 | |
| KIAH | — | 2.13−0.72 · n=241 | 2.22−0.72 · n=240 | 2.18−0.54 · n=239 | 2.36−0.40 · n=238 | 2.58−0.16 · n=237 | 3.28−0.32 · n=236 | 3.72−0.46 · n=234 | 4.08−0.35 · n=233 | 4.43+0.14 · n=232 | |
| KLAS | — | 2.93−2.64 · n=240 | 2.90−2.56 · n=240 | 2.84−2.37 · n=239 | 3.04−2.27 · n=238 | 3.30−2.03 · n=237 | 4.00−2.15 · n=235 | 4.70−2.52 · n=234 | 5.58−3.19 · n=233 | 6.33−3.61 · n=232 | |
| KLAX | — | 2.57+0.26 · n=241 | 2.61+0.14 · n=240 | 2.79+0.11 · n=239 | 2.93−0.03 · n=238 | 3.22−0.13 · n=237 | 3.40−0.63 · n=235 | 4.06−0.99 · n=234 | 4.36−1.16 · n=233 | 4.92−1.25 · n=232 | |
| KMIA | — | 2.03−0.98 · n=240 | 2.36−1.46 · n=238 | 2.68−1.69 · n=237 | 2.86−1.80 · n=236 | 3.01−2.01 · n=235 | 3.23−1.94 · n=234 | 3.46−1.83 · n=232 | 3.55−2.10 · n=232 | 3.86−2.02 · n=230 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.26−1.06 · n=241 | 2.46−0.75 · n=240 | 2.73−0.42 · n=239 | 3.41−0.56 · n=238 | 3.89+0.16 · n=237 | 4.75+0.34 · n=236 | 5.89+0.70 · n=235 | 6.45+1.30 · n=234 | 7.19+1.44 · n=233 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.87−0.56 · n=241 | 2.05−0.84 · n=240 | 2.00−0.91 · n=239 | 2.16−0.97 · n=238 | 2.45−0.94 · n=237 | 2.83−0.81 · n=236 | 3.19−1.23 · n=234 | 3.67−1.20 · n=233 | 3.78−0.36 · n=232 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.55+1.02 · n=239 | 2.64+1.23 · n=238 | 2.93+1.31 · n=237 | 3.48+1.65 · n=236 | 3.99+1.77 · n=235 | 4.59+2.03 · n=234 | 5.72+1.96 · n=233 | 6.17+1.90 · n=232 | 6.80+2.05 · n=231 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.80−1.16 · n=240 | 2.84−0.97 · n=239 | 3.10−0.74 · n=238 | 3.83−0.58 · n=237 | 4.40−0.58 · n=236 | 5.43−0.57 · n=235 | 5.71−0.97 · n=233 | 5.99−0.42 · n=232 | 7.08−0.56 · n=231 | |
| KORD | — | 3.13−2.34 · n=241 | 3.24−2.36 · n=240 | 3.40−2.00 · n=239 | 3.86−1.93 · n=238 | 4.08−1.41 · n=237 | 5.09−1.43 · n=236 | 6.04−1.20 · n=234 | 6.33−1.16 · n=233 | 6.81−0.67 · n=232 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.06−0.19 · n=241 | 2.22+0.01 · n=240 | 2.54+0.18 · n=239 | 3.08+0.53 · n=238 | 3.51+0.54 · n=237 | 4.19+1.04 · n=236 | 5.34+0.75 · n=234 | 5.99+0.82 · n=233 | 6.63+1.00 · n=232 | |
| KPHX | — | 1.95−0.97 · n=241 | 2.05−0.72 · n=240 | 2.22−0.55 · n=239 | 2.54−0.43 · n=238 | 3.04−0.56 · n=237 | 3.41−0.67 · n=235 | 3.93−0.97 · n=234 | 4.67−1.52 · n=233 | 5.22−1.55 · n=232 | |
| KSAN | — | 4.09−4.05 · n=240 | 4.23−4.18 · n=239 | 4.41−4.34 · n=238 | 4.66−4.56 · n=237 | 4.78−4.69 · n=236 | 5.13−4.93 · n=234 | 5.45−5.17 · n=233 | 5.69−5.40 · n=232 | 5.98−5.65 · n=231 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.41−1.13 · n=241 | 2.54−1.20 · n=240 | 2.56−1.02 · n=239 | 2.66−0.91 · n=238 | 3.04−0.78 · n=237 | 3.82−0.88 · n=236 | 4.31−1.15 · n=235 | 4.65−1.01 · n=234 | 5.33−0.61 · n=233 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.33−0.73 · n=241 | 2.40−0.55 · n=240 | 2.51−0.44 · n=239 | 2.52−0.35 · n=238 | 2.94−0.18 · n=237 | 3.58−0.01 · n=235 | 4.01−0.68 · n=234 | 4.73−0.70 · n=233 | 4.76−0.82 · n=232 | |
| KSFO | — | 2.80−1.23 · n=241 | 2.93−1.40 · n=240 | 2.99−1.50 · n=239 | 3.21−1.56 · n=238 | 3.51−1.82 · n=237 | 4.07−2.38 · n=235 | 4.46−2.87 · n=234 | 4.74−2.90 · n=233 | 4.90−2.83 · n=232 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.74+2.10 · n=236 | 2.88+2.25 · n=235 | 3.24+2.36 · n=234 | 3.80+2.73 · n=233 | 4.19+2.81 · n=232 | 4.92+3.28 · n=231 | 6.03+2.97 · n=229 | 6.57+3.06 · n=228 | 7.22+3.30 · n=227 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 3.17−2.92 · n=240 | 3.18−2.84 · n=239 | 3.00−2.50 · n=238 | 2.87−2.19 · n=237 | 2.87−2.00 · n=236 | 3.25−1.56 · n=235 | 3.87−1.35 · n=233 | 4.39−1.45 · n=232 | 4.59−0.19 · n=231 | |
| KAUS | — | 2.39+0.75 · n=240 | 2.50+0.76 · n=239 | 2.68+1.09 · n=238 | 2.83+1.26 · n=237 | 3.50+1.52 · n=236 | 4.31+2.18 · n=235 | 4.70+2.15 · n=234 | 5.41+2.32 · n=233 | 5.92+2.88 · n=232 | |
| KBOS | — | 2.22−1.42 · n=230 | 2.17−0.94 · n=229 | 2.19−0.57 · n=228 | 2.41−0.25 · n=226 | 2.71−0.07 · n=225 | 2.93+0.09 · n=224 | 3.70+0.21 · n=222 | 4.27+0.59 · n=221 | 4.85+0.03 · n=220 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.32−1.42 · n=240 | 2.23−0.85 · n=239 | 2.46−0.48 · n=238 | 2.82−0.18 · n=237 | 3.23−0.04 · n=236 | 3.83−0.06 · n=235 | 4.59−0.01 · n=233 | 5.08+0.45 · n=232 | 5.43+0.32 · n=231 | |
| KDEN | — | 3.61−1.96 · n=240 | 3.82−2.06 · n=239 | 3.97−1.94 · n=238 | 4.29−1.92 · n=237 | 4.43−1.52 · n=236 | 4.77−1.60 · n=234 | 5.00−1.51 · n=233 | 5.46−0.92 · n=232 | 6.41−0.90 · n=232 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.16−1.62 · n=238 | 2.80−1.96 · n=237 | 2.77−1.64 · n=235 | 2.72−1.35 · n=234 | 3.27−1.25 · n=234 | 3.86−0.76 · n=233 | 4.23−0.90 · n=231 | 5.01−0.49 · n=230 | 5.98+0.26 · n=229 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.16−1.38 · n=239 | 2.23−1.02 · n=238 | 2.42−0.80 · n=237 | 2.48−0.46 · n=236 | 2.84−0.25 · n=235 | 3.35−0.30 · n=234 | 4.12−0.13 · n=232 | 4.90+0.19 · n=231 | 5.48−0.03 · n=230 | |
| KIAH | — | 1.72−0.66 · n=241 | 1.96−0.78 · n=240 | 2.07−0.45 · n=239 | 2.19−0.41 · n=238 | 2.70−0.08 · n=237 | 3.13+0.42 · n=236 | 3.89+0.57 · n=234 | 4.26+0.51 · n=233 | 4.86+1.61 · n=232 | |
| KLAS | — | 5.39−5.32 · n=240 | 5.55−5.46 · n=240 | 5.39−5.22 · n=239 | 5.12−4.90 · n=238 | 4.87−4.59 · n=237 | 4.95−4.46 · n=235 | 5.02−4.31 · n=234 | 5.25−4.33 · n=233 | 5.94−4.78 · n=232 | |
| KLAX | — | 1.71−0.89 · n=241 | 1.79−0.69 · n=240 | 1.81−0.57 · n=239 | 1.88−0.55 · n=238 | 2.04−0.49 · n=237 | 2.21−0.58 · n=235 | 2.29−0.71 · n=234 | 2.57−0.85 · n=233 | 2.92−1.05 · n=232 | |
| KMIA | — | 1.60−0.40 · n=240 | 1.60−0.39 · n=238 | 1.65−0.38 · n=237 | 1.80−0.40 · n=236 | 1.97−0.51 · n=235 | 2.24−0.61 · n=234 | 2.55−0.52 · n=232 | 2.82−0.65 · n=232 | 3.21−0.72 · n=230 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.82−2.54 · n=241 | 2.84−2.25 · n=240 | 2.85−1.87 · n=239 | 3.05−1.62 · n=238 | 3.48−1.17 · n=237 | 4.38−0.86 · n=236 | 5.19−0.86 · n=235 | 6.15−0.13 · n=234 | 6.80+0.51 · n=233 | |
| KMSY | — | 1.82−0.36 · n=241 | 2.06−0.91 · n=240 | 2.24−1.05 · n=239 | 2.42−1.26 · n=238 | 2.53−1.26 · n=237 | 2.88−0.73 · n=236 | 3.39−0.56 · n=234 | 3.92−0.69 · n=233 | 4.01+0.34 · n=232 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.46−1.40 · n=239 | 2.44−0.92 · n=238 | 2.47−0.67 · n=237 | 2.61−0.31 · n=236 | 2.86−0.06 · n=235 | 3.36−0.14 · n=234 | 4.17+0.09 · n=233 | 4.72+0.36 · n=232 | 5.42+0.12 · n=231 | |
| KOKC | — | 2.44+0.30 · n=240 | 2.62+0.31 · n=239 | 2.82+0.48 · n=238 | 3.32+0.52 · n=237 | 3.73+0.94 · n=236 | 4.70+1.26 · n=235 | 5.21+1.27 · n=233 | 5.67+2.02 · n=232 | 6.80+2.73 · n=231 | |
| KORD | — | 1.84−0.33 · n=241 | 2.27+0.19 · n=240 | 2.63+0.60 · n=239 | 3.00+1.18 · n=238 | 3.48+1.42 · n=237 | 4.33+1.83 · n=236 | 5.17+1.85 · n=234 | 5.55+1.92 · n=233 | 6.35+2.37 · n=232 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.27−1.48 · n=241 | 2.28−0.97 · n=240 | 2.48−0.68 · n=239 | 2.69−0.41 · n=238 | 3.02−0.24 · n=237 | 3.58−0.21 · n=236 | 4.26−0.09 · n=234 | 4.94+0.25 · n=233 | 5.69+0.02 · n=232 | |
| KPHX | — | 4.48−4.11 · n=241 | 4.82−4.39 · n=240 | 4.81−4.26 · n=239 | 4.74−4.03 · n=238 | 4.82−3.96 · n=237 | 4.83−3.78 · n=235 | 4.86−3.66 · n=234 | 5.25−3.91 · n=233 | 5.87−4.27 · n=232 | |
| KSAN | — | 2.42+0.02 · n=240 | 2.57−0.02 · n=239 | 2.66−0.07 · n=238 | 2.71−0.10 · n=237 | 2.83−0.16 · n=236 | 2.85−0.23 · n=234 | 2.81−0.24 · n=233 | 2.95−0.40 · n=232 | 3.19−0.54 · n=231 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.31−1.55 · n=241 | 2.49−1.72 · n=240 | 2.56−1.62 · n=239 | 2.55−1.45 · n=238 | 3.11−1.20 · n=237 | 3.49−0.61 · n=236 | 3.97−0.49 · n=235 | 4.75−0.31 · n=234 | 5.13+0.15 · n=233 | |
| KSEA | — | 1.73−0.71 · n=241 | 1.68−0.36 · n=240 | 1.74−0.07 · n=239 | 1.89+0.15 · n=238 | 2.17+0.33 · n=237 | 2.42+0.45 · n=235 | 2.58+0.28 · n=234 | 3.10+0.24 · n=233 | 3.38+0.05 · n=232 | |
| KSFO | — | 2.05−1.44 · n=241 | 2.25−1.61 · n=240 | 2.33−1.65 · n=239 | 2.43−1.70 · n=238 | 2.58−1.80 · n=237 | 2.69−1.82 · n=235 | 2.89−2.06 · n=234 | 3.09−2.20 · n=233 | 3.25−2.32 · n=232 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.15+1.66 · n=236 | 2.62+2.13 · n=235 | 2.99+2.38 · n=234 | 3.39+2.64 · n=233 | 3.74+2.87 · n=232 | 4.23+2.84 · n=231 | 5.09+2.94 · n=229 | 5.90+3.31 · n=228 | 6.25+3.01 · n=227 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 3.45−2.97 · n=241 | 3.63−3.00 · n=240 | 3.71−2.98 · n=239 | 3.71−2.97 · n=238 | 3.84−2.74 · n=237 | 4.26−2.54 · n=236 | 5.20−3.12 · n=235 | 5.32−3.05 · n=234 | 5.91−2.73 · n=233 | |
| KAUS | — | 5.64−5.38 · n=241 | 5.61−5.28 · n=240 | 5.49−4.97 · n=239 | 5.41−4.74 · n=238 | 5.57−4.52 · n=237 | 6.29−4.86 · n=236 | 7.05−5.18 · n=235 | 7.24−4.78 · n=234 | 7.74−4.50 · n=233 | |
| KBOS | — | 3.20−2.45 · n=240 | 3.39−2.24 · n=239 | 3.55−2.12 · n=238 | 3.78−1.67 · n=237 | 4.43−1.47 · n=236 | 4.71−1.43 · n=235 | 6.00−1.27 · n=234 | 6.52−1.24 · n=233 | 6.80−1.27 · n=232 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.89−1.99 · n=241 | 2.97−1.77 · n=240 | 3.20−1.44 · n=239 | 3.60−1.09 · n=238 | 4.11−1.27 · n=237 | 4.57−0.93 · n=236 | 5.80−1.03 · n=235 | 6.43−0.99 · n=234 | 7.04−1.17 · n=233 | |
| KDEN | — | 4.37−3.99 · n=241 | 4.36−3.71 · n=240 | 4.17−3.39 · n=239 | 4.44−2.94 · n=238 | 5.12−2.73 · n=237 | 5.92−2.48 · n=236 | 6.16−2.32 · n=235 | 7.73−2.37 · n=234 | 8.97−3.02 · n=233 | |
| KDFW | — | 4.94−4.79 · n=241 | 4.94−4.69 · n=240 | 4.88−4.42 · n=239 | 4.96−4.11 · n=238 | 5.22−4.03 · n=237 | 6.16−4.45 · n=236 | 6.99−4.83 · n=235 | 7.14−4.19 · n=234 | 7.85−4.02 · n=233 | |
| KEWR | — | 3.26−2.76 · n=241 | 3.16−2.54 · n=240 | 3.49−2.49 · n=239 | 3.76−2.12 · n=238 | 4.26−2.04 · n=237 | 4.64−1.70 · n=236 | 5.72−1.88 · n=235 | 6.03−1.90 · n=234 | 7.04−1.73 · n=233 | |
| KIAH | — | 4.61−4.36 · n=241 | 4.63−4.39 · n=240 | 4.45−4.18 · n=239 | 4.43−4.00 · n=238 | 4.41−3.77 · n=237 | 4.98−3.92 · n=236 | 5.31−4.04 · n=235 | 5.60−3.91 · n=234 | 5.66−3.44 · n=233 | |
| KLAS | — | 4.11−4.03 · n=241 | 4.06−3.96 · n=240 | 3.94−3.77 · n=239 | 4.00−3.67 · n=238 | 4.14−3.41 · n=237 | 4.65−3.56 · n=236 | 5.29−3.90 · n=235 | 6.29−4.53 · n=234 | 7.02−4.94 · n=233 | |
| KLAX | — | 3.60−2.81 · n=241 | 3.65−2.95 · n=240 | 3.80−2.98 · n=239 | 4.08−3.11 · n=238 | 4.34−3.23 · n=237 | 4.70−3.75 · n=236 | 5.44−4.12 · n=235 | 5.66−4.26 · n=234 | 6.00−4.34 · n=233 | |
| KMIA | — | 3.35−3.28 · n=241 | 3.85−3.78 · n=240 | 4.09−4.01 · n=239 | 4.27−4.15 · n=238 | 4.50−4.37 · n=237 | 4.55−4.30 · n=236 | 4.66−4.20 · n=235 | 4.77−4.41 · n=234 | 5.02−4.34 · n=233 | |
| KMSP | — | 3.92−3.58 · n=241 | 3.89−3.25 · n=240 | 3.82−2.95 · n=239 | 4.43−3.07 · n=238 | 4.58−2.35 · n=237 | 5.24−2.21 · n=236 | 6.46−1.85 · n=235 | 6.98−1.26 · n=234 | 7.73−1.11 · n=233 | |
| KMSY | — | 3.51−3.30 · n=241 | 3.82−3.60 · n=240 | 3.83−3.66 · n=239 | 4.01−3.74 · n=238 | 4.17−3.68 · n=237 | 4.41−3.55 · n=236 | 4.72−3.95 · n=235 | 4.97−3.92 · n=234 | 4.77−3.06 · n=233 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.60−1.00 · n=241 | 2.57−0.76 · n=240 | 2.83−0.68 · n=239 | 3.24−0.34 · n=238 | 3.75−0.22 · n=237 | 4.39+0.06 · n=236 | 5.51−0.08 · n=235 | 5.86−0.14 · n=234 | 6.54+0.06 · n=233 | |
| KOKC | — | 5.46−4.94 · n=241 | 5.40−4.77 · n=240 | 5.43−4.51 · n=239 | 5.82−4.36 · n=238 | 6.10−4.36 · n=237 | 6.77−4.36 · n=236 | 7.60−4.76 · n=235 | 7.75−4.17 · n=234 | 8.86−4.18 · n=233 | |
| KORD | — | 4.93−4.73 · n=241 | 4.97−4.73 · n=240 | 5.01−4.40 · n=239 | 5.13−4.33 · n=238 | 5.09−3.81 · n=237 | 5.91−3.84 · n=236 | 6.77−3.60 · n=235 | 7.04−3.60 · n=234 | 7.61−3.14 · n=233 | |
| KPHL | — | 3.06−2.57 · n=241 | 3.04−2.40 · n=240 | 3.25−2.21 · n=239 | 3.67−1.86 · n=238 | 4.02−1.85 · n=237 | 4.52−1.36 · n=236 | 5.69−1.64 · n=235 | 6.17−1.61 · n=234 | 6.95−1.49 · n=233 | |
| KPHX | — | 3.17−2.95 · n=241 | 3.11−2.70 · n=240 | 3.20−2.54 · n=239 | 3.36−2.42 · n=238 | 3.73−2.57 · n=237 | 3.99−2.69 · n=236 | 4.48−2.97 · n=235 | 5.37−3.49 · n=234 | 5.92−3.51 · n=233 | |
| KSAN | — | 6.71−6.71 · n=241 | 6.84−6.84 · n=240 | 7.00−7.00 · n=239 | 7.21−7.21 · n=238 | 7.36−7.36 · n=237 | 7.63−7.61 · n=236 | 7.92−7.85 · n=235 | 8.10−8.06 · n=234 | 8.40−8.33 · n=233 | |
| KSAT | — | 4.79−4.47 · n=241 | 4.84−4.55 · n=240 | 4.79−4.35 · n=239 | 4.68−4.22 · n=238 | 4.86−4.09 · n=237 | 5.47−4.18 · n=236 | 6.10−4.46 · n=235 | 6.42−4.34 · n=234 | 6.68−3.93 · n=233 | |
| KSEA | — | 2.89−2.15 · n=241 | 2.87−1.97 · n=240 | 2.91−1.88 · n=239 | 2.91−1.77 · n=238 | 3.28−1.65 · n=237 | 3.87−1.50 · n=236 | 4.47−2.14 · n=235 | 5.10−2.17 · n=234 | 5.02−2.26 · n=233 | |
| KSFO | — | 4.61−4.31 · n=241 | 4.81−4.49 · n=240 | 4.94−4.59 · n=239 | 5.05−4.61 · n=238 | 5.37−4.89 · n=237 | 6.05−5.41 · n=236 | 6.53−5.93 · n=235 | 6.63−5.98 · n=234 | 6.72−5.95 · n=233 | |
| KTTN | — | 2.06−0.31 · n=241 | 2.11−0.14 · n=240 | 2.48−0.03 · n=239 | 3.02+0.34 · n=238 | 3.48+0.41 · n=237 | 4.09+0.86 · n=236 | 5.31+0.60 · n=235 | 6.02+0.60 · n=234 | 6.72+0.78 · n=233 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 2.53−1.24 · n=240 | 2.49−1.15 · n=239 | 2.48−0.82 · n=239 | 2.40−0.49 · n=237 | 2.52−0.27 · n=236 | 3.05+0.10 · n=235 | 3.87+0.28 · n=234 | 4.27+0.19 · n=233 | 4.51+1.48 · n=232 | |
| KAUS | — | 3.77+3.25 · n=241 | 3.82+3.25 · n=240 | 4.03+3.53 · n=239 | 4.18+3.67 · n=238 | 4.71+3.93 · n=237 | 5.70+4.53 · n=236 | 5.92+4.49 · n=235 | 6.65+4.69 · n=234 | 7.20+5.24 · n=233 | |
| KBOS | — | 1.99+0.77 · n=240 | 2.26+1.27 · n=239 | 2.51+1.56 · n=238 | 2.80+1.86 · n=237 | 3.16+2.08 · n=236 | 3.39+2.15 · n=235 | 4.14+2.36 · n=234 | 4.79+2.65 · n=233 | 5.07+2.33 · n=232 | |
| KDCA | — | 2.19+0.73 · n=241 | 2.39+1.33 · n=240 | 2.67+1.70 · n=239 | 3.03+2.00 · n=238 | 3.51+2.14 · n=237 | 3.94+2.13 · n=236 | 4.70+2.19 · n=235 | 5.39+2.60 · n=234 | 5.68+2.48 · n=233 | |
| KDEN | — | 3.26+1.42 · n=241 | 3.46+1.34 · n=240 | 3.55+1.44 · n=239 | 4.00+1.52 · n=238 | 4.38+1.93 · n=237 | 4.48+1.82 · n=236 | 5.01+1.97 · n=235 | 5.76+2.53 · n=234 | 6.42+2.54 · n=233 | |
| KDFW | — | 2.21+0.15 · n=241 | 2.73−0.18 · n=240 | 2.92+0.09 · n=239 | 2.91+0.38 · n=238 | 3.41+0.45 · n=237 | 4.18+0.92 · n=236 | 4.34+0.76 · n=235 | 4.97+1.13 · n=234 | 6.06+1.88 · n=233 | |
| KEWR | — | 2.15+1.15 · n=241 | 2.44+1.61 · n=240 | 2.71+1.80 · n=239 | 2.94+2.13 · n=238 | 3.25+2.36 · n=237 | 3.72+2.26 · n=236 | 4.55+2.47 · n=235 | 5.29+2.81 · n=234 | 5.59+2.57 · n=233 | |
| KIAH | — | 2.09+0.90 · n=241 | 2.26+0.80 · n=240 | 2.55+1.11 · n=239 | 2.56+1.14 · n=238 | 3.20+1.44 · n=237 | 3.73+1.95 · n=236 | 4.30+2.06 · n=235 | 4.82+2.08 · n=234 | 5.41+3.14 · n=233 | |
| KLAS | — | 3.80−3.50 · n=241 | 3.96−3.62 · n=240 | 3.86−3.38 · n=239 | 3.64−3.05 · n=238 | 3.47−2.78 · n=237 | 3.67−2.61 · n=236 | 3.87−2.46 · n=235 | 4.27−2.49 · n=234 | 4.91−2.95 · n=233 | |
| KLAX | — | 1.66+0.74 · n=241 | 1.92+0.94 · n=240 | 2.02+1.06 · n=239 | 2.20+1.09 · n=238 | 2.35+1.14 · n=237 | 2.50+1.07 · n=236 | 2.48+0.94 · n=235 | 2.70+0.82 · n=234 | 2.91+0.59 · n=233 | |
| KMIA | — | 2.06+1.53 · n=241 | 2.14+1.52 · n=240 | 2.14+1.54 · n=239 | 2.22+1.50 · n=238 | 2.28+1.40 · n=237 | 2.54+1.33 · n=236 | 2.72+1.38 · n=235 | 2.99+1.24 · n=234 | 3.22+1.16 · n=233 | |
| KMSP | — | 2.62−0.62 · n=241 | 2.71−0.34 · n=240 | 2.84+0.07 · n=239 | 3.01+0.31 · n=238 | 3.51+0.77 · n=237 | 4.45+1.04 · n=236 | 5.40+1.07 · n=235 | 6.14+1.83 · n=234 | 6.96+2.47 · n=233 | |
| KMSY | — | 2.35+1.60 · n=241 | 2.26+1.00 · n=240 | 2.29+0.80 · n=239 | 2.28+0.62 · n=238 | 2.49+0.64 · n=237 | 3.01+1.16 · n=236 | 3.52+1.35 · n=235 | 4.00+1.19 · n=234 | 4.51+2.21 · n=233 | |
| KNYC | — | 2.57+0.45 · n=241 | 2.62+0.94 · n=240 | 2.67+1.15 · n=239 | 2.83+1.56 · n=238 | 3.06+1.82 · n=237 | 3.49+1.74 · n=236 | 4.26+1.91 · n=235 | 4.96+2.25 · n=234 | 5.35+2.03 · n=233 | |
| KOKC | — | 3.40+2.73 · n=241 | 3.57+2.73 · n=240 | 3.82+2.90 · n=239 | 4.16+2.91 · n=238 | 4.57+3.36 · n=237 | 5.38+3.62 · n=236 | 5.83+3.68 · n=235 | 6.43+4.30 · n=234 | 7.63+5.01 · n=233 | |
| KORD | — | 2.67+1.87 · n=241 | 3.19+2.42 · n=240 | 3.63+2.82 · n=239 | 4.12+3.38 · n=238 | 4.50+3.61 · n=237 | 5.32+4.08 · n=236 | 5.85+4.07 · n=235 | 6.33+4.14 · n=234 | 7.07+4.52 · n=233 | |
| KPHL | — | 2.24+0.84 · n=241 | 2.44+1.36 · n=240 | 2.71+1.63 · n=239 | 3.01+1.88 · n=238 | 3.33+2.09 · n=237 | 3.87+2.11 · n=236 | 4.46+2.21 · n=235 | 5.37+2.56 · n=234 | 5.82+2.33 · n=233 | |
| KPHX | — | 2.91−2.07 · n=241 | 3.29−2.34 · n=240 | 3.36−2.23 · n=239 | 3.37−2.01 · n=238 | 3.44−1.93 · n=237 | 3.63−1.75 · n=236 | 3.84−1.63 · n=235 | 4.25−1.87 · n=234 | 4.69−2.23 · n=233 | |
| KSAN | — | 2.92+1.58 · n=241 | 3.08+1.55 · n=240 | 3.13+1.52 · n=239 | 3.17+1.48 · n=238 | 3.24+1.43 · n=237 | 3.22+1.35 · n=236 | 3.26+1.33 · n=235 | 3.29+1.19 · n=234 | 3.42+1.00 · n=233 | |
| KSAT | — | 2.10+0.04 · n=241 | 2.25−0.13 · n=240 | 2.43−0.05 · n=239 | 2.49+0.12 · n=238 | 3.04+0.33 · n=237 | 3.69+0.91 · n=236 | 4.13+1.01 · n=235 | 4.91+1.22 · n=234 | 5.21+1.67 · n=233 | |
| KSEA | — | 1.75+0.91 · n=241 | 1.92+1.26 · n=240 | 2.13+1.55 · n=239 | 2.35+1.79 · n=238 | 2.67+1.95 · n=237 | 2.98+2.09 · n=236 | 3.00+1.89 · n=235 | 3.56+1.85 · n=234 | 3.68+1.67 · n=233 | |
| KSFO | — | 1.84−0.14 · n=241 | 1.96−0.28 · n=240 | 2.01−0.33 · n=239 | 2.17−0.38 · n=238 | 2.34−0.47 · n=237 | 2.51−0.49 · n=236 | 2.56−0.71 · n=235 | 2.86−0.88 · n=234 | 2.92−0.99 · n=233 | |
| KTTN | — | 4.66+4.56 · n=241 | 5.15+5.09 · n=240 | 5.35+5.28 · n=239 | 5.71+5.55 · n=238 | 5.95+5.79 · n=237 | 6.19+5.78 · n=236 | 6.79+5.94 · n=235 | 7.38+6.29 · n=234 | 7.60+6.09 · n=233 |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · PANG · IFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.