Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Trenton Mercer · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 2

KTTN · pangu_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0.00+2.11 [2.11, 2.11]2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.11—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0.00+2.11 [2.11, 2.11]2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.11—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0.00+2.11 [2.11, 2.11]2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.11—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0.00+2.11 [2.11, 2.11]2.11 [2.11, 2.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.11—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0.00+2.26 [2.26, 2.26]2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.26—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0.00+2.26 [2.26, 2.26]2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.26—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0.00+2.26 [2.26, 2.26]2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.26—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0.00+2.26 [2.26, 2.26]2.26 [2.26, 2.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.26—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0.00+1.89 [1.89, 1.89]1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.89—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0.00+1.89 [1.89, 1.89]1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.89—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0.00+1.89 [1.89, 1.89]1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.89—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0.00+1.89 [1.89, 1.89]1.89 [1.89, 1.89]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.89—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0.00+1.97 [1.97, 1.97]1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0.00+1.97 [1.97, 1.97]1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0.00+1.97 [1.97, 1.97]1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0.00+1.97 [1.97, 1.97]1.97 [1.97, 1.97]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.97—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0.00+7.57 [7.57, 7.57]7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.05—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0.00+7.57 [7.57, 7.57]7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.05—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0.00+7.57 [7.57, 7.57]7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.05—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0.00+7.57 [7.57, 7.57]7.57 [7.57, 7.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.05—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0.00+7.84 [7.84, 7.84]7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.02—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0.00+7.84 [7.84, 7.84]7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.02—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0.00+7.84 [7.84, 7.84]7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.02—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0.00+7.84 [7.84, 7.84]7.84 [7.84, 7.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.02—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0.00+7.92 [7.92, 7.92]7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.01—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0.00+7.92 [7.92, 7.92]7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.01—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0.00+7.92 [7.92, 7.92]7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.01—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0.00+7.92 [7.92, 7.92]7.92 [7.92, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%+0.01—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0.00+8.23 [8.23, 8.23]8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.03—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0.00+8.23 [8.23, 8.23]8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.03—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0.00+8.23 [8.23, 8.23]8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.03—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0.00+8.23 [8.23, 8.23]8.23 [8.23, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.03—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KTTN, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+2.5+1.20-1.2-2.52026-08-30: +2.11 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.11

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KTTN, lead day 2-2.5 to -2.25 °F: 0 days-2.25 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.75 °F: 0 days-1.75 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1.25 °F: 0 days-1.25 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.75 °F: 0 days-0.75 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to -0.25 °F: 0 days-0.25 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.25 °F: 0 days0.25 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 0.75 °F: 0 days0.75 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.25 °F: 0 days1.25 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 1.75 °F: 0 days1.75 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.25 °F: 1 day2.25 to 2.5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.11 · P90 |e| 2.11 °F-2.50+2.5 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-2.50-2.250
-2.25-2.000
-2.00-1.750
-1.75-1.500
-1.50-1.250
-1.25-1.000
-1.00-0.750
-0.75-0.500
-0.50-0.250
-0.25+0.000
+0.00+0.250
+0.25+0.500
+0.50+0.750
+0.75+1.000
+1.00+1.250
+1.25+1.500
+1.50+1.750
+1.75+2.000
+2.00+2.251
+2.25+2.500

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0812.11 +2.11

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +1.46 [1.46, 1.46] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +1.80 [1.80, 1.80] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +1.04 [1.04, 1.04] yes
NCEP GFS 1 -3.08 [-3.08, -3.08] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 +1.21 [1.21, 1.21] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +0.42 [0.42, 0.42] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +1.11 [1.11, 1.11] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KTTN pangu_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KTTN/model/pangu_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KTTN (Trenton Mercer), model pangu_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KTTN/model/pangu_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence