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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

San Francisco Intl · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 1

KSFO · pangu_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0.11-6.70 [-6.82, -6.59]6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.23+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0.11-6.70 [-6.82, -6.59]6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.23+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0.11-6.70 [-6.82, -6.59]6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.23+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0.11-6.70 [-6.82, -6.59]6.70 [6.59, 6.82]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.23+0.962026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC6.21 [5.63, 6.80]0.59-6.21 [-6.80, -5.63]6.24 [5.63, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.07+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC6.21 [5.63, 6.80]0.59-6.21 [-6.80, -5.63]6.24 [5.63, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.07+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC6.21 [5.63, 6.80]0.59-6.21 [-6.80, -5.63]6.24 [5.63, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.07+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC6.21 [5.63, 6.80]0.59-6.21 [-6.80, -5.63]6.24 [5.63, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.07+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.61 [3.35, 3.87]0.26-3.61 [-3.87, -3.35]3.62 [3.35, 3.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.20+0.912026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.61 [3.35, 3.87]0.26-3.61 [-3.87, -3.35]3.62 [3.35, 3.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.20+0.912026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.61 [3.35, 3.87]0.26-3.61 [-3.87, -3.35]3.62 [3.35, 3.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.20+0.912026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.61 [3.35, 3.87]0.26-3.61 [-3.87, -3.35]3.62 [3.35, 3.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.20+0.912026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC3.64 [3.27, 4.01]0.37-3.64 [-4.01, -3.27]3.66 [3.27, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC3.64 [3.27, 4.01]0.37-3.64 [-4.01, -3.27]3.66 [3.27, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC3.64 [3.27, 4.01]0.37-3.64 [-4.01, -3.27]3.66 [3.27, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC3.64 [3.27, 4.01]0.37-3.64 [-4.01, -3.27]3.66 [3.27, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.21+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.13 [0.71, 1.55]1.13+0.42 [-0.71, 1.55]1.21 [0.71, 1.55]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%-0.13-0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.13 [0.71, 1.55]1.13+0.42 [-0.71, 1.55]1.21 [0.71, 1.55]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%-0.13-0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.13 [0.71, 1.55]1.13+0.42 [-0.71, 1.55]1.21 [0.71, 1.55]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%-0.13-0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.13 [0.71, 1.55]1.13+0.42 [-0.71, 1.55]1.21 [0.71, 1.55]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%-0.13-0.132026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC1.25 [1.15, 1.35]1.25+0.10 [-1.15, 1.35]1.26 [1.15, 1.35]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.25-0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC1.25 [1.15, 1.35]1.25+0.10 [-1.15, 1.35]1.26 [1.15, 1.35]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.25-0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC1.25 [1.15, 1.35]1.25+0.10 [-1.15, 1.35]1.26 [1.15, 1.35]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.25-0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC1.25 [1.15, 1.35]1.25+0.10 [-1.15, 1.35]1.26 [1.15, 1.35]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.25-0.252026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.96 [0.37, 1.56]0.60-0.96 [-1.56, -0.37]1.13 [0.37, 1.56]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.04+0.402026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.96 [0.37, 1.56]0.60-0.96 [-1.56, -0.37]1.13 [0.37, 1.56]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.04+0.402026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.96 [0.37, 1.56]0.60-0.96 [-1.56, -0.37]1.13 [0.37, 1.56]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.04+0.402026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.96 [0.37, 1.56]0.60-0.96 [-1.56, -0.37]1.13 [0.37, 1.56]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.04+0.402026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.12 [0.10, 2.14]1.02-1.12 [-2.14, -0.10]1.52 [0.10, 2.14]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%-0.12-0.022026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.12 [0.10, 2.14]1.02-1.12 [-2.14, -0.10]1.52 [0.10, 2.14]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%-0.12-0.022026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.12 [0.10, 2.14]1.02-1.12 [-2.14, -0.10]1.52 [0.10, 2.14]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%-0.12-0.022026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC1.12 [0.10, 2.14]1.02-1.12 [-2.14, -0.10]1.52 [0.10, 2.14]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%-0.12-0.022026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KSFO, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -6.59 °F2026-08-30: -6.82 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.82
2026-08-29-6.59

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KSFO, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.7 · P90 |e| 6.79 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0826.70 -6.70

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +1.07 [0.65, 1.49] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 +0.18 [0.18, 0.18] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -1.62 [-1.75, -1.49] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +5.41 [5.41, 5.41] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +4.26 [4.02, 4.49] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +0.12 [-0.38, 0.62] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +2.18 [2.18, 2.18] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 +1.28 [0.48, 2.07] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 -1.80 [-2.28, -1.32] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.17 [0.17, 0.17] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 +3.70 [0.59, 6.82] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KSFO pangu_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSFO/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KSFO (San Francisco Intl), model pangu_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KSFO/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence