Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

GraphCast (IFS init) (graphcast_ifs)

source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —6.61-6.61 · n=27 6.40-6.40 · n=26 5.95-5.95 · n=25 5.47-5.47 · n=25 5.55-5.55 · n=25 5.36-5.15 · n=24 5.51-5.32 · n=23 5.05-4.76 · n=22 5.69-4.92 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —8.57-8.57 · n=27 8.36-8.36 · n=26 8.13-8.13 · n=25 7.93-7.93 · n=25 7.70-7.70 · n=25 7.47-7.47 · n=24 7.55-7.55 · n=23 7.83-7.83 · n=22 7.79-7.79 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —2.88-2.21 · n=27 3.03-2.67 · n=26 3.39-2.38 · n=24 3.71-1.46 · n=24 4.55-2.10 · n=24 4.12-2.20 · n=23 4.40-2.97 · n=22 5.09-3.47 · n=21 4.74-3.19 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —4.82-4.82 · n=27 4.78-4.78 · n=26 4.90-4.83 · n=25 4.60-4.60 · n=25 5.07-4.74 · n=25 5.00-4.45 · n=24 5.24-4.87 · n=23 5.47-4.77 · n=22 7.02-5.42 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —6.82-6.82 · n=27 7.03-7.03 · n=26 7.42-7.42 · n=25 8.05-8.05 · n=25 7.97-7.97 · n=25 7.57-7.57 · n=24 8.72-8.72 · n=23 9.80-9.65 · n=22 9.49-9.49 · n=21 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —6.27-6.27 · n=27 7.10-7.10 · n=26 7.71-7.71 · n=25 7.98-7.98 · n=25 7.91-7.91 · n=25 8.35-8.35 · n=24 8.64-8.64 · n=23 8.87-8.87 · n=22 8.97-8.97 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —4.69-4.69 · n=27 4.93-4.93 · n=26 5.04-5.04 · n=25 4.38-4.38 · n=25 4.84-4.75 · n=25 4.26-4.23 · n=24 4.35-4.35 · n=23 5.75-5.40 · n=22 5.65-5.27 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —7.26-7.26 · n=27 7.20-7.20 · n=26 7.22-7.22 · n=25 7.08-7.08 · n=25 6.69-6.69 · n=25 6.54-6.54 · n=24 6.49-6.48 · n=23 6.63-6.63 · n=22 6.72-6.72 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —5.77-5.65 · n=27 6.14-6.11 · n=26 6.43-6.43 · n=25 7.06-6.82 · n=25 7.64-7.28 · n=25 8.09-7.61 · n=24 8.95-8.65 · n=23 9.30-8.62 · n=22 8.76-8.26 · n=21 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —3.52-3.52 · n=27 3.62-3.62 · n=26 3.55-3.55 · n=25 3.72-3.72 · n=25 3.68-3.67 · n=25 3.75-3.73 · n=24 3.88-3.88 · n=23 4.24-4.24 · n=22 4.96-4.96 · n=21 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —4.11-4.11 · n=27 4.41-4.41 · n=26 4.56-4.56 · n=25 4.73-4.73 · n=25 5.26-5.26 · n=25 5.32-5.32 · n=24 5.23-5.23 · n=23 4.92-4.92 · n=22 5.06-5.06 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —6.71-6.71 · n=27 6.82-6.82 · n=26 6.41-6.36 · n=25 6.53-6.35 · n=25 6.47-6.43 · n=25 6.70-6.31 · n=24 7.32-7.26 · n=23 7.69-7.41 · n=22 7.00-5.94 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —5.57-5.46 · n=27 5.45-5.45 · n=26 5.41-5.41 · n=25 5.68-5.68 · n=25 5.80-5.80 · n=25 5.81-5.81 · n=24 5.52-5.52 · n=23 5.63-5.63 · n=22 5.65-5.29 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —1.85-1.47 · n=27 2.38-1.73 · n=26 2.73-2.03 · n=25 2.48-1.27 · n=25 2.96-1.61 · n=25 2.13-1.17 · n=24 2.37-1.42 · n=23 3.85-2.52 · n=22 3.87-2.53 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —8.31-8.31 · n=27 8.73-8.73 · n=26 9.44-9.44 · n=25 9.70-9.70 · n=25 9.64-9.64 · n=25 10.37-10.37 · n=24 10.69-10.69 · n=23 11.01-10.97 · n=22 11.69-11.67 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —4.01-4.01 · n=27 4.38-4.35 · n=26 4.53-4.45 · n=25 3.95-3.84 · n=25 4.01-3.60 · n=25 4.06-3.62 · n=24 4.15-3.41 · n=23 4.35-3.42 · n=22 4.50-3.04 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —4.92-4.92 · n=27 4.93-4.93 · n=26 4.95-4.95 · n=25 4.34-4.25 · n=25 4.82-4.75 · n=25 4.57-4.44 · n=24 4.46-4.23 · n=23 5.75-5.20 · n=22 6.45-5.37 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —3.66-3.56 · n=27 3.92-3.74 · n=26 4.01-3.95 · n=25 4.71-4.71 · n=25 5.34-5.20 · n=25 6.23-6.09 · n=24 6.50-6.38 · n=23 7.29-7.04 · n=22 7.63-7.30 · n=21 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —5.77-5.77 · n=27 5.61-5.61 · n=26 5.74-5.74 · n=25 5.81-5.81 · n=25 5.57-5.57 · n=25 5.39-5.39 · n=24 5.43-5.43 · n=23 5.46-5.46 · n=22 5.95-5.95 · n=21 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —6.63-6.63 · n=27 6.59-6.59 · n=26 6.58-6.58 · n=25 6.30-6.30 · n=25 6.02-6.02 · n=25 5.69-5.69 · n=24 5.85-5.85 · n=23 6.14-6.14 · n=22 6.16-6.16 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —5.62-5.62 · n=27 5.34-5.28 · n=26 5.09-4.98 · n=25 5.29-5.15 · n=25 5.66-5.38 · n=25 5.03-4.68 · n=24 5.85-4.97 · n=23 7.68-6.29 · n=22 7.44-6.20 · n=21 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —5.04-5.00 · n=27 5.02-4.92 · n=26 5.28-5.03 · n=25 5.13-5.05 · n=25 5.46-5.35 · n=25 5.46-5.17 · n=24 5.62-5.39 · n=23 6.11-5.77 · n=22 6.36-6.08 · n=21 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —2.09-2.07 · n=27 2.58-2.36 · n=26 2.66-2.33 · n=25 2.50-1.47 · n=25 3.01-2.00 · n=25 2.40-1.52 · n=24 2.11-1.31 · n=23 3.87-2.54 · n=22 4.23-2.24 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —1.69-0.84 · n=27 1.72-0.78 · n=26 1.83-0.68 · n=25 1.85-0.35 · n=25 1.83-0.13 · n=25 1.87-0.04 · n=24 2.49-0.19 · n=23 2.75+0.40 · n=22 2.71+0.78 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —3.76+3.64 · n=27 3.71+3.59 · n=26 3.83+3.68 · n=25 4.34+4.31 · n=25 4.43+4.41 · n=25 4.48+4.47 · n=24 4.62+4.62 · n=23 4.46+4.46 · n=22 4.28+4.23 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —1.49-0.40 · n=27 1.64-0.35 · n=26 1.31-0.10 · n=24 1.70-0.06 · n=24 1.73-0.02 · n=24 1.92-0.10 · n=23 1.97-0.36 · n=22 2.50-0.55 · n=21 3.08-1.14 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —1.49+0.10 · n=27 1.91+0.18 · n=26 2.21+0.23 · n=25 2.63+0.10 · n=25 3.10+0.06 · n=25 3.26+0.31 · n=24 2.59+0.42 · n=23 3.10+0.32 · n=22 4.39-0.48 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —2.42+1.46 · n=27 2.25+1.66 · n=26 2.21+1.60 · n=25 2.49+1.63 · n=25 2.31+1.42 · n=25 2.26+1.38 · n=24 2.33+1.22 · n=23 2.70+1.11 · n=22 2.80+1.01 · n=21 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —1.03-0.31 · n=27 1.23-0.81 · n=26 1.63-1.22 · n=25 2.00-1.52 · n=25 2.27-1.75 · n=25 2.40-1.76 · n=24 2.24-1.68 · n=23 2.55-2.00 · n=22 2.30-1.66 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —2.02+0.61 · n=27 2.11+0.93 · n=26 2.21+1.07 · n=25 2.39+1.10 · n=25 2.82+0.91 · n=25 2.89+1.18 · n=24 2.22+1.04 · n=23 3.44+1.00 · n=22 3.51-0.22 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —1.84+0.06 · n=27 1.87-0.05 · n=26 2.05+0.19 · n=25 2.00+0.32 · n=25 2.07+0.35 · n=25 2.33+0.50 · n=24 2.64+0.76 · n=23 2.64+0.70 · n=22 3.05+0.32 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —3.54-3.50 · n=27 3.48-3.42 · n=26 3.60-3.51 · n=25 3.79-3.50 · n=25 4.37-3.81 · n=25 4.84-4.33 · n=24 5.70-4.28 · n=23 5.41-4.71 · n=22 6.66-5.57 · n=21 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —0.72-0.49 · n=27 0.97-0.73 · n=26 0.90-0.73 · n=25 0.87-0.72 · n=25 0.95-0.68 · n=25 0.97-0.54 · n=24 1.12-0.45 · n=23 1.35-0.50 · n=22 1.86-1.06 · n=21 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —1.58+0.20 · n=27 1.61+0.00 · n=26 1.49-0.19 · n=25 1.52+0.01 · n=25 1.73-0.16 · n=25 1.66-0.37 · n=24 1.69-0.49 · n=23 1.64-0.49 · n=22 1.65-0.33 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —2.15-1.86 · n=27 2.08-1.66 · n=26 2.33-1.78 · n=25 2.14-1.53 · n=25 2.41-1.49 · n=25 3.28-1.39 · n=24 3.93-1.74 · n=23 5.12-2.37 · n=22 6.08-1.58 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —2.81+2.54 · n=27 2.83+2.48 · n=26 2.73+2.65 · n=25 2.63+2.51 · n=25 2.78+2.36 · n=25 2.85+2.46 · n=24 2.89+2.43 · n=23 2.83+2.49 · n=22 2.93+2.36 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —1.52+0.67 · n=27 1.86+1.12 · n=26 1.82+1.43 · n=25 2.13+1.49 · n=25 2.41+1.20 · n=25 2.83+1.33 · n=24 2.04+1.19 · n=23 2.65+1.13 · n=22 3.57-0.03 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —3.55+3.03 · n=27 3.58+2.85 · n=26 3.37+2.16 · n=25 3.44+1.94 · n=25 3.23+1.69 · n=25 3.10+1.68 · n=24 3.25+1.22 · n=23 2.77+0.66 · n=22 2.32+0.17 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —1.40+0.08 · n=27 1.41+0.03 · n=26 1.51-0.20 · n=25 1.76+0.12 · n=25 1.71-0.08 · n=25 1.91+0.09 · n=24 2.30+0.37 · n=23 4.03-0.15 · n=22 5.99-0.47 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —1.89-0.86 · n=27 2.02-0.70 · n=26 2.02-0.65 · n=25 2.45-0.59 · n=25 2.59-0.54 · n=25 3.05-0.34 · n=24 2.42-0.17 · n=23 2.76-0.04 · n=22 4.07-1.43 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —3.17-0.92 · n=27 3.21-1.09 · n=26 3.28-1.19 · n=25 3.38-1.37 · n=25 3.46-1.56 · n=25 4.03-1.46 · n=24 3.99-1.61 · n=23 4.16-1.17 · n=22 4.92-1.61 · n=21 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —1.08-0.61 · n=27 1.09-0.61 · n=26 0.89-0.38 · n=25 0.82-0.28 · n=25 0.82-0.30 · n=25 0.79-0.08 · n=24 0.77+0.20 · n=23 0.71+0.17 · n=22 0.97-0.09 · n=21 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —0.93-0.19 · n=27 0.88-0.23 · n=26 1.11+0.16 · n=25 1.11+0.54 · n=25 1.22+0.57 · n=25 1.23+0.63 · n=24 1.37+0.94 · n=23 1.46+0.96 · n=22 1.32+0.80 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —1.64+1.21 · n=27 1.75+1.49 · n=26 1.79+1.64 · n=25 2.11+2.06 · n=25 2.02+2.00 · n=25 1.79+1.71 · n=24 2.24+2.04 · n=23 2.29+1.73 · n=22 2.14+1.21 · n=21 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —0.80-0.17 · n=27 1.01-0.27 · n=26 1.26-0.53 · n=25 1.34-0.74 · n=25 1.46-0.96 · n=25 1.61-1.18 · n=24 1.86-1.37 · n=23 1.54-0.95 · n=22 1.71-1.18 · n=21 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —3.34+3.34 · n=27 3.52+3.50 · n=26 3.55+3.55 · n=25 3.66+3.66 · n=25 3.91+3.64 · n=25 4.30+3.80 · n=24 4.07+3.94 · n=23 4.82+4.14 · n=22 3.89+2.77 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

aiwp · GRAP · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences