KSAT — San Antonio Intl
29.5328, -98.4636 · 246 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLISAT
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.19-3.19 · n=30 | 3.12-3.12 · n=29 | 3.10-3.10 · n=28 | 3.03-3.03 · n=27 | 2.82-2.82 · n=26 | 2.77-2.76 · n=25 | 2.65-2.65 · n=24 | 2.78-2.77 · n=23 | 2.73-2.73 · n=22 | 3.14-2.87 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 7.33-7.33 · n=2 | 7.82-7.82 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.29-6.29 · n=3 | 6.05-6.05 · n=2 | 4.64-4.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.35-4.35 · n=2 | 3.79-3.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.22-4.22 · n=3 | 2.73-2.73 · n=2 | 1.67-1.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.11-1.97 · n=30 | 1.76-1.45 · n=29 | 1.77-1.39 · n=28 | 1.61-1.28 · n=27 | 1.70-0.83 · n=26 | 1.90-1.61 · n=25 | 1.63-1.29 · n=24 | 2.04-1.22 · n=23 | 1.98-0.70 · n=22 | 2.41-0.74 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.67-6.67 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.83-5.83 · n=34 | 6.18-6.18 · n=33 | 6.02-6.02 · n=32 | 6.06-6.06 · n=31 | 5.80-5.77 · n=31 | 6.12-6.12 · n=31 | 5.87-5.87 · n=30 | 5.53-5.53 · n=29 | 5.12-4.80 · n=28 | 6.20-4.97 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.23-3.23 · n=24 | 3.17-3.17 · n=23 | 3.13-3.08 · n=22 | 2.92-2.74 · n=22 | 2.58-2.56 · n=20 | 2.70-2.70 · n=18 | 2.93-2.93 · n=19 | 2.89-2.47 · n=18 | 3.01-2.53 · n=17 | 3.01-2.66 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.03-3.03 · n=2 | 3.17-3.17 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.73-2.73 · n=3 | 3.94-3.94 · n=2 | 4.20-4.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.43-0.04 · n=972 | 6.00-0.09 · n=971 | 6.63-0.14 · n=970 | 6.98-0.18 · n=969 | 7.13-0.22 · n=968 | 7.27-0.26 · n=967 | 7.50-0.29 · n=966 | 7.68-0.33 · n=965 | 7.82-0.37 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.49-0.90 · n=30 | 1.51-0.77 · n=29 | 1.64-0.82 · n=28 | 1.61-0.81 · n=27 | 1.52-0.59 · n=26 | 1.55-0.51 · n=25 | 1.54-0.40 · n=24 | 1.53-0.41 · n=23 | 1.61-0.08 · n=22 | 1.70-0.26 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.99-0.99 · n=2 | 2.30-2.30 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.14+0.48 · n=3 | 1.72-0.83 · n=2 | 2.52-2.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.98-2.98 · n=2 | 2.00-2.00 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 0.95-0.51 · n=3 | 1.76+0.21 · n=2 | 1.22-1.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.69-0.14 · n=30 | 1.96-0.37 · n=29 | 2.11-0.66 · n=28 | 1.96-0.63 · n=27 | 2.12-0.80 · n=26 | 2.15-0.86 · n=25 | 2.15-0.87 · n=24 | 2.04-1.22 · n=23 | 1.73-1.01 · n=22 | 2.07-1.08 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.07-0.46 · n=2 | 2.20-2.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.73+0.93 · n=34 | 1.56+0.84 · n=33 | 1.64+1.04 · n=32 | 1.60+1.19 · n=31 | 1.81+1.51 · n=31 | 1.97+1.58 · n=31 | 1.52+1.32 · n=30 | 2.13+1.07 · n=29 | 2.16+1.06 · n=28 | 3.23+2.17 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.79+1.10 · n=24 | 2.09+1.07 · n=23 | 2.12+1.17 · n=22 | 1.93+1.08 · n=22 | 2.37+1.57 · n=20 | 2.68+1.64 · n=18 | 2.74+1.76 · n=19 | 2.59+2.03 · n=18 | 2.36+2.00 · n=17 | 2.68+1.78 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 0.94-0.53 · n=2 | 2.72-2.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.75+1.13 · n=3 | 1.70-1.70 · n=2 | 3.89-3.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.03-0.03 · n=972 | 5.85-0.06 · n=971 | 6.76-0.09 · n=970 | 7.29-0.13 · n=969 | 7.62-0.17 · n=968 | 7.82-0.21 · n=967 | 7.90-0.25 · n=966 | 8.02-0.27 · n=965 | 8.08-0.31 · n=964 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences