CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-08-30

Model

Persistence (baseline)

persistence

source truth · product yesterday's observation · steps every 24 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, obs. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

truth obs
Window
the last 365 days
Init
12Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-08-30
Updated
2026-08-31T06:29:35+00:00
Next update
2026-08-31T11:00:00+00:00

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —5.34−0.25 · n=211 7.13−0.39 · n=211 7.61−0.45 · n=211 7.79−0.55 · n=212 7.93−0.59 · n=212 8.22−0.58 · n=212 8.58−0.62 · n=212 8.79−0.63 · n=212 8.67−0.71 · n=212 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS —5.40−0.09 · n=211 7.46−0.26 · n=211 8.25−0.49 · n=211 8.43−0.51 · n=212 8.63−0.54 · n=212 8.96−0.57 · n=212 9.10−0.67 · n=212 9.27−0.78 · n=212 9.43−0.83 · n=212 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS —5.93−0.39 · n=187 7.34−0.63 · n=185 7.67−1.03 · n=185 7.80−0.81 · n=185 8.56−1.07 · n=184 8.50−1.40 · n=185 8.88−1.37 · n=186 9.33−1.40 · n=185 9.50−1.18 · n=186 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA —6.22−0.15 · n=211 8.39−0.36 · n=211 8.76−0.58 · n=211 8.50−0.78 · n=212 8.87−0.99 · n=212 9.28−0.97 · n=212 9.55−0.96 · n=212 9.67−1.03 · n=212 9.76−1.19 · n=212 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN —7.72−0.09 · n=209 10.30−0.17 · n=209 11.15−0.30 · n=209 11.22−0.51 · n=210 11.43−0.59 · n=210 11.81−0.69 · n=210 11.78−0.74 · n=210 11.38−0.83 · n=210 11.27−0.91 · n=210 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW —5.64−0.08 · n=205 7.76−0.23 · n=205 8.46−0.42 · n=205 8.48−0.37 · n=206 8.68−0.64 · n=206 9.22−0.66 · n=206 9.40−0.72 · n=206 9.59−0.89 · n=207 9.56−1.01 · n=206 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR —6.30−0.13 · n=209 8.39−0.39 · n=209 8.93−0.64 · n=209 9.05−0.73 · n=211 9.11−0.92 · n=210 9.57−1.10 · n=210 9.96−1.12 · n=210 10.33−1.12 · n=210 10.62−1.22 · n=210 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH —4.72−0.15 · n=213 6.71−0.33 · n=213 7.53−0.48 · n=213 7.63−0.52 · n=214 7.71−0.57 · n=214 7.82−0.60 · n=214 8.04−0.66 · n=214 8.47−0.75 · n=214 8.69−0.81 · n=214 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS —3.39−0.22 · n=209 5.00−0.34 · n=209 5.96−0.42 · n=209 6.55−0.52 · n=210 7.13−0.72 · n=210 7.73−0.85 · n=210 8.04−1.02 · n=210 8.08−1.19 · n=210 8.02−1.42 · n=210 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX —2.43−0.08 · n=211 3.22−0.14 · n=211 3.57−0.22 · n=211 3.59−0.34 · n=212 3.65−0.43 · n=212 3.88−0.49 · n=212 4.10−0.54 · n=212 4.23−0.59 · n=211 4.33−0.64 · n=211 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA —3.02−0.10 · n=209 3.99−0.12 · n=209 4.33−0.13 · n=209 4.67−0.20 · n=210 5.00−0.35 · n=211 5.30−0.41 · n=210 5.44−0.43 · n=210 5.46−0.48 · n=210 5.53−0.50 · n=211 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP —6.76−0.20 · n=215 9.10−0.40 · n=215 9.82−0.61 · n=215 10.00−0.79 · n=215 10.67−0.94 · n=215 11.42−1.14 · n=215 12.03−1.37 · n=215 12.28−1.48 · n=215 12.39−1.59 · n=215 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY —4.55−0.15 · n=213 6.08−0.35 · n=213 6.82−0.49 · n=213 7.10−0.50 · n=214 7.31−0.53 · n=214 7.26−0.55 · n=214 7.45−0.61 · n=214 7.79−0.67 · n=214 8.11−0.69 · n=214 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC —6.14−0.27 · n=213 8.23−0.45 · n=213 8.87−0.65 · n=213 8.85−0.91 · n=213 9.03−1.16 · n=213 9.45−1.30 · n=213 9.81−1.27 · n=213 10.16−1.37 · n=213 10.39−1.56 · n=213 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC —6.92−0.19 · n=211 9.40−0.33 · n=211 9.95−0.44 · n=211 9.64−0.43 · n=212 10.03−0.53 · n=212 10.63−0.64 · n=212 10.90−0.74 · n=212 10.94−0.75 · n=212 10.82−0.78 · n=212 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD —7.44−0.27 · n=212 9.67−0.51 · n=211 10.12−0.73 · n=211 10.22−0.71 · n=212 10.81−0.82 · n=212 11.14−0.91 · n=212 11.92−0.96 · n=212 11.98−0.97 · n=212 11.67−0.98 · n=212 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL —6.05−0.13 · n=213 8.11−0.34 · n=213 8.53−0.56 · n=213 8.46−0.65 · n=214 8.71−0.86 · n=214 8.93−0.95 · n=214 9.38−1.00 · n=214 9.66−1.10 · n=214 9.84−1.22 · n=214 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX —3.52−0.16 · n=211 4.91−0.22 · n=211 5.53−0.30 · n=211 6.06−0.44 · n=212 6.54−0.59 · n=212 6.84−0.69 · n=212 6.90−0.80 · n=212 6.96−0.94 · n=212 7.03−1.10 · n=212 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN —2.13−0.08 · n=209 2.88−0.10 · n=209 3.09−0.15 · n=209 3.17−0.25 · n=210 3.28−0.36 · n=210 3.53−0.40 · n=210 3.61−0.44 · n=210 3.63−0.50 · n=210 3.72−0.52 · n=210 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT —4.56−0.13 · n=215 6.55−0.26 · n=215 7.37−0.46 · n=215 7.48−0.54 · n=215 7.70−0.61 · n=215 7.85−0.65 · n=215 7.96−0.71 · n=215 8.13−0.77 · n=215 8.22−0.83 · n=215 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA —3.80−0.07 · n=211 5.24−0.13 · n=211 5.84−0.17 · n=211 5.95−0.22 · n=212 6.23−0.31 · n=212 6.53−0.36 · n=212 6.61−0.42 · n=212 6.44−0.51 · n=212 6.44−0.66 · n=212 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO —2.51+0.01 · n=211 3.20−0.07 · n=211 3.43−0.16 · n=211 3.70−0.21 · n=212 3.88−0.23 · n=212 3.92−0.26 · n=212 3.97−0.24 · n=212 3.96−0.23 · n=212 3.84−0.22 · n=212 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN —6.43−0.12 · n=207 8.42−0.33 · n=205 8.77−0.65 · n=205 8.70−0.74 · n=206 8.99−0.85 · n=206 9.42−0.75 · n=206 9.73−0.72 · n=206 10.03−1.02 · n=206 10.23−1.22 · n=206 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 5 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.99−0.27 · n=211 6.62−0.37 · n=211 6.90−0.52 · n=211 7.17−0.55 · n=212 7.33−0.67 · n=212 7.78−0.66 · n=212 8.09−0.76 · n=212 8.19−0.74 · n=212 8.15−0.83 · n=212 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS —4.76−0.04 · n=211 6.62−0.25 · n=211 7.42−0.53 · n=211 7.51−0.60 · n=212 7.59−0.65 · n=212 7.89−0.72 · n=212 8.22−0.84 · n=212 8.49−1.03 · n=212 8.53−1.14 · n=212 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS —6.47−0.30 · n=187 8.32−0.71 · n=185 8.81−1.12 · n=185 8.57−0.74 · n=185 9.49−1.19 · n=184 9.56−1.65 · n=185 10.15−1.34 · n=186 10.42−1.37 · n=185 10.31−1.12 · n=186 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA —6.08−0.14 · n=211 8.59−0.41 · n=211 9.28−0.68 · n=211 9.09−0.86 · n=212 9.88−1.15 · n=212 10.18−1.14 · n=212 10.22−1.06 · n=212 10.36−1.17 · n=212 10.41−1.26 · n=212 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN —7.74−0.09 · n=209 10.69−0.11 · n=209 11.22−0.23 · n=209 11.27−0.45 · n=210 11.55−0.55 · n=210 12.00−0.64 · n=210 12.15−0.69 · n=210 11.42−0.75 · n=210 11.24−0.85 · n=210 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW —4.93−0.05 · n=205 6.79−0.20 · n=205 7.57−0.43 · n=205 7.50−0.42 · n=206 7.70−0.69 · n=206 8.21−0.67 · n=206 8.52−0.81 · n=206 8.83−0.95 · n=207 8.73−1.04 · n=206 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR —6.44−0.10 · n=209 8.48−0.44 · n=209 9.27−0.73 · n=209 9.41−0.77 · n=211 10.14−1.03 · n=210 10.44−1.24 · n=210 10.63−1.15 · n=210 11.29−1.21 · n=210 11.33−1.33 · n=210 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH —4.23−0.09 · n=213 5.92−0.33 · n=213 6.58−0.50 · n=213 6.41−0.54 · n=214 6.38−0.60 · n=214 6.86−0.65 · n=214 7.22−0.71 · n=214 7.42−0.84 · n=214 7.37−0.93 · n=214 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS —3.59−0.22 · n=209 5.50−0.34 · n=209 6.66−0.38 · n=209 7.29−0.51 · n=210 7.93−0.76 · n=210 8.65−0.89 · n=210 9.05−1.08 · n=210 9.14−1.26 · n=210 9.17−1.54 · n=210 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX —2.88−0.10 · n=211 3.93−0.17 · n=211 4.41−0.21 · n=211 4.39−0.33 · n=212 4.55−0.43 · n=212 4.69−0.50 · n=212 5.04−0.58 · n=212 5.22−0.64 · n=211 5.33−0.70 · n=211 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA —3.42−0.07 · n=209 4.20−0.11 · n=209 4.53−0.16 · n=209 5.09−0.19 · n=210 5.17−0.35 · n=211 5.32−0.36 · n=210 5.56−0.37 · n=210 5.45−0.46 · n=210 5.53−0.46 · n=211 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP —6.31−0.23 · n=215 9.04−0.40 · n=215 10.06−0.60 · n=215 10.25−0.76 · n=215 10.72−0.92 · n=215 11.55−1.12 · n=215 12.19−1.40 · n=215 12.48−1.55 · n=215 12.50−1.70 · n=215 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY —4.33−0.11 · n=213 6.06−0.34 · n=213 6.40−0.48 · n=213 6.31−0.45 · n=214 6.51−0.48 · n=214 6.79−0.50 · n=214 6.86−0.54 · n=214 6.93−0.64 · n=214 7.03−0.64 · n=214 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC —6.14−0.27 · n=213 8.33−0.48 · n=213 9.24−0.73 · n=213 9.16−0.96 · n=213 9.80−1.26 · n=213 10.23−1.36 · n=213 10.47−1.35 · n=213 10.84−1.46 · n=213 10.71−1.67 · n=213 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC —5.81−0.06 · n=211 8.12−0.31 · n=211 9.01−0.50 · n=211 8.62−0.44 · n=212 8.91−0.46 · n=212 9.47−0.64 · n=212 9.68−0.77 · n=212 10.00−0.75 · n=212 10.05−0.83 · n=212 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD —7.37−0.26 · n=212 9.87−0.54 · n=211 10.28−0.78 · n=211 10.89−0.74 · n=212 11.25−0.83 · n=212 11.80−0.96 · n=212 12.58−1.05 · n=212 12.62−1.06 · n=212 11.66−1.00 · n=212 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL —6.14−0.12 · n=213 8.26−0.39 · n=213 9.23−0.68 · n=213 9.29−0.74 · n=214 10.04−1.03 · n=214 9.93−1.14 · n=214 10.29−1.15 · n=214 10.72−1.30 · n=214 10.64−1.39 · n=214 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX —3.32−0.20 · n=211 4.93−0.26 · n=211 5.92−0.32 · n=211 6.64−0.47 · n=212 7.20−0.67 · n=212 7.50−0.79 · n=212 7.73−0.93 · n=212 7.84−1.11 · n=212 8.01−1.28 · n=212 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN —2.36−0.09 · n=209 3.22−0.12 · n=209 3.44−0.14 · n=209 3.42−0.25 · n=210 3.53−0.39 · n=210 3.92−0.41 · n=210 4.05−0.47 · n=210 4.06−0.50 · n=210 4.14−0.53 · n=210 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT —4.37−0.11 · n=215 6.25−0.27 · n=215 7.10−0.48 · n=215 7.00−0.59 · n=215 7.13−0.67 · n=215 7.21−0.77 · n=215 7.66−0.86 · n=215 7.71−0.97 · n=215 7.84−1.09 · n=215 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA —4.62−0.06 · n=211 6.50−0.10 · n=211 7.20−0.15 · n=211 7.28−0.21 · n=212 7.49−0.37 · n=212 7.72−0.40 · n=212 7.77−0.46 · n=212 7.55−0.57 · n=212 7.70−0.77 · n=212 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO —3.28+0.00 · n=211 4.31−0.10 · n=211 4.66−0.23 · n=211 4.97−0.27 · n=212 5.27−0.29 · n=212 5.34−0.34 · n=212 5.38−0.29 · n=212 5.34−0.25 · n=212 5.31−0.24 · n=212 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN —6.45−0.11 · n=207 8.53−0.36 · n=205 9.27−0.67 · n=205 9.10−0.70 · n=206 9.90−0.90 · n=206 10.17−0.84 · n=206 10.28−0.82 · n=206 10.90−1.19 · n=206 10.69−1.33 · n=206 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.69−0.24 · n=211 6.55−0.38 · n=211 7.18−0.43 · n=211 7.62−0.57 · n=212 8.01−0.58 · n=212 8.15−0.53 · n=212 8.30−0.51 · n=212 8.41−0.52 · n=212 8.56−0.61 · n=212 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS —5.76−0.13 · n=211 8.03−0.26 · n=211 8.88−0.48 · n=211 9.11−0.44 · n=212 9.54−0.48 · n=212 9.67−0.45 · n=212 9.75−0.51 · n=212 9.74−0.52 · n=212 10.23−0.50 · n=212 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS —4.57−0.40 · n=187 5.79−0.61 · n=185 6.20−1.03 · n=185 6.58−0.89 · n=185 7.02−0.96 · n=184 6.99−1.21 · n=185 7.47−1.39 · n=186 7.98−1.31 · n=185 8.20−1.24 · n=186 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA —5.15−0.16 · n=211 7.16−0.34 · n=211 7.20−0.55 · n=211 7.18−0.79 · n=212 7.21−0.95 · n=212 7.70−0.86 · n=212 7.95−0.91 · n=212 8.16−0.96 · n=212 8.62−1.19 · n=212 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN —6.03−0.13 · n=209 8.18−0.34 · n=209 9.06−0.46 · n=209 9.11−0.59 · n=210 9.33−0.69 · n=210 9.67−0.80 · n=210 9.70−0.91 · n=210 9.82−1.04 · n=210 9.65−1.11 · n=210 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW —5.12−0.11 · n=205 7.10−0.25 · n=205 7.96−0.40 · n=205 7.85−0.32 · n=206 8.08−0.59 · n=206 8.68−0.59 · n=206 8.89−0.65 · n=206 9.00−0.78 · n=207 8.95−0.98 · n=206 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR —4.92−0.13 · n=209 6.96−0.32 · n=209 7.39−0.54 · n=209 7.82−0.68 · n=211 7.61−0.83 · n=210 8.07−0.96 · n=210 8.67−1.06 · n=210 8.70−1.01 · n=210 9.22−1.11 · n=210 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH —4.64−0.18 · n=213 7.07−0.31 · n=213 7.98−0.45 · n=213 8.29−0.47 · n=214 8.39−0.53 · n=214 8.30−0.55 · n=214 8.65−0.59 · n=214 9.25−0.64 · n=214 9.43−0.65 · n=214 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS —3.06−0.21 · n=209 4.43−0.32 · n=209 5.42−0.42 · n=209 6.01−0.48 · n=210 6.65−0.60 · n=210 7.16−0.75 · n=210 7.32−0.88 · n=210 7.41−1.06 · n=210 7.45−1.23 · n=210 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX —1.94−0.08 · n=211 2.42−0.13 · n=211 2.64−0.23 · n=211 2.68−0.36 · n=212 2.66−0.44 · n=212 2.81−0.49 · n=212 3.02−0.52 · n=212 3.01−0.55 · n=211 3.14−0.59 · n=211 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA —2.94−0.16 · n=209 4.25−0.17 · n=209 4.69−0.14 · n=209 4.99−0.24 · n=210 5.42−0.43 · n=211 5.95−0.52 · n=210 6.25−0.56 · n=210 6.45−0.56 · n=210 6.49−0.60 · n=211 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP —5.77−0.22 · n=215 7.84−0.45 · n=215 8.23−0.67 · n=215 8.42−0.89 · n=215 9.45−1.02 · n=215 10.39−1.20 · n=215 11.00−1.37 · n=215 11.32−1.44 · n=215 11.28−1.50 · n=215 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY —4.16−0.21 · n=213 5.65−0.39 · n=213 6.68−0.53 · n=213 7.25−0.54 · n=214 7.45−0.57 · n=214 7.43−0.59 · n=214 7.59−0.65 · n=214 8.19−0.70 · n=214 8.54−0.73 · n=214 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC —4.90−0.27 · n=213 7.10−0.40 · n=213 7.74−0.57 · n=213 7.92−0.86 · n=213 7.71−1.08 · n=213 8.16−1.22 · n=213 8.68−1.18 · n=213 8.73−1.26 · n=213 9.35−1.48 · n=213 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC —6.64−0.25 · n=211 8.67−0.36 · n=211 9.01−0.45 · n=211 9.01−0.50 · n=212 9.53−0.68 · n=212 10.08−0.73 · n=212 10.08−0.81 · n=212 10.06−0.88 · n=212 10.09−0.82 · n=212 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD —5.74−0.25 · n=212 7.43−0.47 · n=211 8.25−0.69 · n=211 8.49−0.67 · n=212 9.00−0.80 · n=212 9.26−0.83 · n=212 9.93−0.86 · n=212 10.12−0.85 · n=212 10.15−0.88 · n=212 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL —4.79−0.12 · n=213 6.81−0.28 · n=213 6.73−0.50 · n=213 6.91−0.63 · n=214 7.06−0.77 · n=214 7.42−0.85 · n=214 7.86−0.91 · n=214 8.00−1.00 · n=214 8.47−1.15 · n=214 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX —3.23−0.11 · n=211 4.56−0.18 · n=211 5.08−0.29 · n=211 5.55−0.43 · n=212 5.86−0.52 · n=212 6.15−0.58 · n=212 6.16−0.67 · n=212 6.06−0.81 · n=212 6.23−0.92 · n=212 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN —1.69−0.05 · n=209 2.31−0.10 · n=209 2.72−0.19 · n=209 2.91−0.29 · n=210 3.11−0.36 · n=210 3.34−0.40 · n=210 3.42−0.47 · n=210 3.41−0.50 · n=210 3.47−0.53 · n=210 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT —4.44−0.17 · n=215 6.57−0.27 · n=215 7.48−0.45 · n=215 7.84−0.50 · n=215 8.29−0.54 · n=215 8.29−0.53 · n=215 8.37−0.53 · n=215 8.56−0.53 · n=215 8.60−0.52 · n=215 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA —2.89−0.10 · n=211 3.91−0.16 · n=211 4.43−0.23 · n=211 4.65−0.30 · n=212 4.97−0.36 · n=212 5.16−0.41 · n=212 5.38−0.49 · n=212 5.25−0.58 · n=212 5.31−0.70 · n=212 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO —2.03+0.02 · n=211 2.55−0.02 · n=211 2.73−0.08 · n=211 3.06−0.13 · n=212 3.25−0.16 · n=212 3.28−0.16 · n=212 3.29−0.14 · n=212 3.33−0.17 · n=212 3.29−0.16 · n=212 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN —5.33−0.11 · n=207 7.56−0.33 · n=205 7.58−0.66 · n=205 7.99−0.80 · n=206 7.80−0.81 · n=206 8.29−0.67 · n=206 8.71−0.64 · n=206 8.70−0.92 · n=206 9.35−1.18 · n=206 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.78−0.19 · n=215 6.49−0.49 · n=215 6.71−0.66 · n=215 7.07−0.73 · n=215 7.15−0.78 · n=215 7.63−0.87 · n=215 7.90−0.90 · n=215 8.03−0.91 · n=215 7.98−1.01 · n=215 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS —5.03−0.10 · n=215 6.96−0.27 · n=215 7.78−0.53 · n=215 7.74−0.65 · n=215 7.92−0.73 · n=215 8.31−0.80 · n=215 8.56−0.90 · n=215 8.75−1.01 · n=215 8.90−1.12 · n=215 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS —7.08−0.27 · n=213 9.08−0.44 · n=213 9.31−0.68 · n=214 9.04−0.83 · n=214 9.55−1.00 · n=214 9.70−1.24 · n=214 10.48−1.29 · n=214 10.69−1.38 · n=214 10.41−1.45 · n=214 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA —6.38−0.16 · n=215 8.87−0.45 · n=215 9.71−0.66 · n=215 9.49−0.84 · n=215 10.32−1.02 · n=215 10.56−1.16 · n=215 10.68−1.15 · n=215 10.67−1.16 · n=215 10.63−1.29 · n=215 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN —7.56+0.06 · n=214 10.29+0.06 · n=214 10.93−0.03 · n=214 10.92−0.26 · n=214 11.26−0.38 · n=214 11.76−0.43 · n=214 11.61−0.57 · n=214 10.83−0.69 · n=214 10.88−0.74 · n=214 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW —5.22−0.07 · n=215 7.28−0.26 · n=215 8.10−0.53 · n=215 8.18−0.64 · n=215 8.17−0.70 · n=215 8.61−0.76 · n=215 8.84−0.87 · n=215 9.05−1.00 · n=215 8.93−1.10 · n=215 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR —6.38−0.16 · n=215 8.67−0.44 · n=215 9.60−0.73 · n=215 9.85−0.92 · n=215 10.51−1.16 · n=215 10.67−1.34 · n=215 10.83−1.36 · n=215 11.37−1.44 · n=215 11.40−1.58 · n=215 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH —4.10−0.11 · n=215 5.93−0.29 · n=215 6.50−0.49 · n=215 6.31−0.55 · n=215 6.40−0.60 · n=215 6.92−0.67 · n=215 7.12−0.75 · n=215 7.28−0.85 · n=215 7.35−0.94 · n=215 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS —3.56−0.11 · n=214 5.27−0.21 · n=214 6.35−0.29 · n=214 7.02−0.47 · n=214 7.77−0.63 · n=214 8.45−0.80 · n=214 8.76−0.96 · n=214 8.89−1.13 · n=214 8.91−1.37 · n=214 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX —3.05−0.10 · n=214 4.36−0.19 · n=214 4.85−0.24 · n=214 5.02−0.34 · n=214 5.14−0.45 · n=214 5.45−0.53 · n=214 5.76−0.58 · n=214 6.00−0.66 · n=214 6.13−0.72 · n=214 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA —2.67−0.10 · n=215 3.57−0.17 · n=215 4.01−0.19 · n=215 4.31−0.21 · n=215 4.35−0.24 · n=215 4.39−0.29 · n=215 4.66−0.35 · n=215 4.68−0.45 · n=215 4.76−0.53 · n=215 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP —6.64−0.24 · n=215 9.47−0.41 · n=215 10.31−0.62 · n=215 10.58−0.81 · n=215 10.98−1.01 · n=215 11.75−1.21 · n=215 12.42−1.52 · n=215 12.74−1.68 · n=215 12.57−1.83 · n=215 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY —4.16−0.10 · n=215 5.81−0.31 · n=215 6.20−0.41 · n=215 6.25−0.42 · n=215 6.40−0.46 · n=215 6.67−0.48 · n=215 7.06−0.55 · n=215 6.93−0.64 · n=215 7.04−0.69 · n=215 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC —6.00−0.15 · n=215 8.35−0.43 · n=215 9.18−0.68 · n=215 9.19−0.86 · n=215 9.86−1.10 · n=215 10.20−1.28 · n=215 10.27−1.31 · n=215 10.77−1.39 · n=215 10.67−1.53 · n=215 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC —6.67−0.04 · n=215 9.38−0.13 · n=215 10.14−0.40 · n=215 9.81−0.56 · n=214 9.92−0.56 · n=214 10.55−0.64 · n=214 10.72−0.74 · n=214 11.22−0.85 · n=214 11.11−0.96 · n=214 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD —7.33−0.16 · n=215 10.06−0.34 · n=215 10.70−0.63 · n=215 10.92−0.79 · n=215 11.32−1.00 · n=215 12.08−1.17 · n=215 12.83−1.30 · n=215 13.07−1.33 · n=215 12.44−1.32 · n=215 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL —6.25−0.16 · n=215 8.49−0.46 · n=215 9.51−0.69 · n=215 9.35−0.90 · n=215 10.22−1.13 · n=215 10.23−1.29 · n=215 10.70−1.30 · n=215 10.92−1.35 · n=215 10.77−1.52 · n=215 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX —3.43−0.11 · n=214 4.95−0.20 · n=214 6.00−0.27 · n=214 6.63−0.41 · n=214 7.21−0.58 · n=214 7.51−0.73 · n=214 7.69−0.86 · n=214 7.74−1.04 · n=214 7.86−1.22 · n=214 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN —2.72−0.06 · n=214 3.79−0.12 · n=214 4.10−0.16 · n=214 4.20−0.20 · n=214 4.31−0.30 · n=214 4.72−0.34 · n=214 4.98−0.39 · n=214 4.86−0.43 · n=214 4.86−0.49 · n=214 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT —4.60−0.08 · n=215 6.52−0.24 · n=215 7.43−0.47 · n=215 7.36−0.59 · n=215 7.48−0.67 · n=215 7.67−0.74 · n=215 7.86−0.84 · n=215 7.93−0.93 · n=215 8.25−1.02 · n=215 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA —4.52−0.12 · n=214 6.29−0.16 · n=214 6.89−0.18 · n=214 6.91−0.21 · n=214 7.20−0.27 · n=214 7.38−0.34 · n=214 7.36−0.46 · n=214 7.16−0.55 · n=214 7.20−0.79 · n=214 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO —3.71−0.08 · n=214 4.80−0.22 · n=214 5.19−0.29 · n=214 5.55−0.35 · n=214 5.71−0.43 · n=214 5.70−0.43 · n=214 5.82−0.36 · n=214 5.77−0.36 · n=214 5.73−0.36 · n=214 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN —6.19−0.14 · n=215 8.48−0.43 · n=215 9.61−0.67 · n=215 9.47−0.91 · n=215 10.16−1.14 · n=215 10.18−1.30 · n=215 10.61−1.31 · n=215 11.02−1.38 · n=215 10.79−1.54 · n=215 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.27−0.21 · n=213 6.15−0.42 · n=213 6.94−0.58 · n=213 7.47−0.60 · n=213 7.52−0.68 · n=213 7.82−0.73 · n=213 8.12−0.66 · n=213 8.33−0.65 · n=213 8.47−0.73 · n=213 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS —5.26−0.17 · n=215 7.77−0.33 · n=215 8.79−0.47 · n=215 9.04−0.59 · n=215 9.42−0.63 · n=215 9.60−0.63 · n=215 9.68−0.67 · n=215 9.81−0.67 · n=215 10.28−0.63 · n=215 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS —4.04−0.19 · n=213 5.45−0.39 · n=213 5.97−0.55 · n=214 6.11−0.71 · n=214 6.30−0.88 · n=214 6.56−1.03 · n=214 7.04−1.17 · n=214 7.43−1.29 · n=214 7.75−1.40 · n=214 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA —4.71−0.17 · n=215 6.63−0.41 · n=215 6.65−0.63 · n=215 6.77−0.79 · n=215 7.19−0.90 · n=215 7.65−0.97 · n=215 7.89−1.00 · n=215 8.08−1.05 · n=215 8.33−1.16 · n=215 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN —5.35−0.09 · n=214 7.30−0.25 · n=214 8.14−0.44 · n=214 8.39−0.64 · n=214 8.61−0.73 · n=214 9.02−0.84 · n=214 9.08−0.98 · n=214 9.08−1.13 · n=214 8.97−1.22 · n=214 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW —4.53−0.17 · n=215 6.58−0.35 · n=215 7.36−0.53 · n=215 7.62−0.75 · n=215 8.10−0.83 · n=215 8.47−0.87 · n=215 8.66−0.96 · n=215 8.73−1.02 · n=215 9.02−1.02 · n=215 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR —4.65−0.15 · n=215 6.47−0.36 · n=215 7.10−0.58 · n=215 7.08−0.80 · n=215 7.10−0.97 · n=215 7.48−1.07 · n=215 8.13−1.13 · n=215 8.33−1.20 · n=215 8.61−1.33 · n=215 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH —4.55−0.18 · n=215 6.94−0.33 · n=215 8.03−0.43 · n=215 8.54−0.53 · n=215 8.48−0.60 · n=215 8.45−0.63 · n=215 8.83−0.66 · n=215 9.51−0.67 · n=215 9.75−0.70 · n=215 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS —2.74−0.08 · n=214 4.16−0.18 · n=214 5.14−0.31 · n=214 5.71−0.43 · n=214 6.33−0.57 · n=214 6.71−0.71 · n=214 6.84−0.84 · n=214 6.93−0.99 · n=214 6.98−1.16 · n=214 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX —1.77−0.06 · n=214 2.48−0.10 · n=214 2.67−0.21 · n=214 2.80−0.33 · n=214 2.85−0.44 · n=214 3.08−0.50 · n=214 3.28−0.53 · n=214 3.31−0.57 · n=214 3.32−0.60 · n=214 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA —3.03−0.15 · n=215 4.19−0.22 · n=215 4.67−0.28 · n=215 5.13−0.35 · n=215 5.60−0.40 · n=215 6.05−0.46 · n=215 6.22−0.47 · n=215 6.42−0.50 · n=215 6.54−0.54 · n=215 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP —5.09−0.25 · n=215 7.44−0.47 · n=215 7.97−0.67 · n=215 8.50−0.90 · n=215 9.41−1.04 · n=215 10.31−1.20 · n=215 10.97−1.37 · n=215 11.30−1.44 · n=215 11.12−1.49 · n=215 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY —3.80−0.22 · n=215 5.53−0.39 · n=215 6.53−0.54 · n=215 7.18−0.58 · n=215 7.56−0.60 · n=215 7.68−0.63 · n=215 7.91−0.69 · n=215 8.40−0.75 · n=215 8.62−0.79 · n=215 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC —4.49−0.15 · n=215 6.52−0.36 · n=215 7.41−0.59 · n=215 7.31−0.80 · n=215 7.19−0.97 · n=215 7.54−1.09 · n=215 8.05−1.15 · n=215 8.32−1.23 · n=215 8.76−1.35 · n=215 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC —5.64−0.13 · n=215 7.56−0.33 · n=215 8.07−0.50 · n=215 8.49−0.77 · n=215 9.14−0.91 · n=215 9.77−0.99 · n=215 9.77−1.08 · n=215 9.77−1.10 · n=215 9.99−1.13 · n=215 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD —4.89−0.20 · n=215 6.78−0.40 · n=215 8.01−0.67 · n=215 8.12−0.92 · n=215 8.62−1.07 · n=215 9.23−1.18 · n=215 9.69−1.22 · n=215 9.90−1.25 · n=215 10.06−1.28 · n=215 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL —4.44−0.13 · n=215 6.12−0.34 · n=215 6.47−0.54 · n=215 6.47−0.72 · n=215 6.80−0.85 · n=215 7.18−0.93 · n=215 7.55−1.00 · n=215 7.73−1.07 · n=215 8.11−1.23 · n=215 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX —3.16−0.07 · n=214 4.42−0.12 · n=214 4.98−0.24 · n=214 5.50−0.38 · n=214 5.79−0.48 · n=214 5.96−0.55 · n=214 5.95−0.63 · n=214 5.98−0.76 · n=214 6.08−0.93 · n=214 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN —1.84−0.04 · n=214 2.50−0.07 · n=214 2.96−0.19 · n=214 3.30−0.30 · n=214 3.37−0.39 · n=214 3.58−0.48 · n=214 3.64−0.54 · n=214 3.63−0.56 · n=214 3.70−0.60 · n=214 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT —4.16−0.16 · n=215 6.25−0.27 · n=215 7.40−0.39 · n=215 7.73−0.50 · n=215 8.14−0.53 · n=215 8.03−0.52 · n=215 8.13−0.53 · n=215 8.37−0.53 · n=215 8.58−0.51 · n=215 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA —2.76−0.10 · n=214 3.77−0.16 · n=214 4.35−0.19 · n=214 4.60−0.23 · n=214 4.93−0.28 · n=214 5.18−0.35 · n=214 5.20−0.43 · n=214 5.08−0.54 · n=214 5.24−0.64 · n=214 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO —1.97−0.01 · n=214 2.43−0.05 · n=214 2.63−0.10 · n=214 2.96−0.13 · n=214 3.16−0.16 · n=214 3.20−0.17 · n=214 3.27−0.16 · n=214 3.32−0.16 · n=214 3.21−0.16 · n=214 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN —5.08−0.14 · n=215 7.08−0.34 · n=215 7.55−0.54 · n=215 7.63−0.76 · n=215 7.71−0.91 · n=215 7.97−0.96 · n=215 8.58−1.00 · n=215 8.72−1.08 · n=215 9.10−1.24 · n=215 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Native daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.30+0.03 · n=30 2.40+0.07 · n=30 2.07−0.07 · n=30 3.03+0.10 · n=30 3.17+0.10 · n=30 3.10+0.03 · n=30 3.67−0.07 · n=30 3.83−0.23 · n=30 3.97−0.37 · n=30 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KAUS —1.60+0.00 · n=30 1.83+0.03 · n=30 1.93−0.07 · n=30 1.90−0.23 · n=30 1.93−0.40 · n=30 2.07−0.60 · n=30 2.17−0.83 · n=30 2.47−1.13 · n=30 2.43−1.37 · n=30 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KBOS —5.18−0.75 · n=28 6.57−0.14 · n=28 6.66−0.79 · n=29 7.00−0.93 · n=29 7.31−0.48 · n=29 7.62−0.79 · n=29 8.07−1.10 · n=29 8.00−1.31 · n=29 8.97−1.10 · n=29 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KDCA —3.53−0.07 · n=30 3.43−0.03 · n=30 3.93−0.20 · n=30 4.10−0.10 · n=30 4.50+0.03 · n=30 4.63+0.03 · n=30 4.33−0.07 · n=30 4.23−0.23 · n=30 4.23−0.10 · n=30 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KDEN —5.63+0.17 · n=30 7.37+0.23 · n=30 7.60+0.07 · n=30 7.90+0.10 · n=30 7.43+0.30 · n=30 8.03+0.90 · n=30 7.97+1.23 · n=30 7.27+1.33 · n=30 7.00+1.20 · n=30 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KDFW —1.67+0.07 · n=30 2.47+0.00 · n=30 2.63−0.10 · n=30 2.53−0.13 · n=30 2.70−0.17 · n=30 2.77−0.23 · n=30 2.73−0.60 · n=30 2.87−1.07 · n=30 2.83−1.30 · n=30 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KEWR —2.80+0.20 · n=30 3.27+0.13 · n=30 3.47+0.07 · n=30 4.20+0.13 · n=30 3.83+0.17 · n=30 4.03+0.30 · n=30 4.43+0.23 · n=30 4.80+0.20 · n=30 4.80+0.27 · n=30 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KIAH —1.50+0.03 · n=30 1.93+0.07 · n=30 2.23+0.03 · n=30 2.60−0.07 · n=30 2.67−0.20 · n=30 2.83−0.30 · n=30 2.93−0.53 · n=30 3.07−0.73 · n=30 3.10−1.10 · n=30 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KLAS —3.10+0.43 · n=30 3.97+0.63 · n=30 5.03+0.70 · n=30 5.47+0.67 · n=30 6.27+0.67 · n=30 6.97+0.77 · n=30 7.13+0.93 · n=30 6.93+1.07 · n=30 7.17+1.17 · n=30 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KLAX —1.73−0.07 · n=30 1.90−0.37 · n=30 2.10−0.57 · n=30 2.33−0.93 · n=30 2.60−1.20 · n=30 2.70−1.37 · n=30 2.80−1.53 · n=30 2.90−1.77 · n=30 2.97−1.83 · n=30 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KMIA —1.57+0.17 · n=30 2.10+0.37 · n=30 2.20+0.40 · n=30 2.33+0.33 · n=30 2.13+0.33 · n=30 2.60+0.40 · n=30 2.83+0.43 · n=30 2.70+0.43 · n=30 2.80+0.40 · n=30 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KMSP —2.80−0.33 · n=30 3.33−0.13 · n=30 3.67+0.13 · n=30 4.03+0.37 · n=30 4.77+0.97 · n=30 4.80+1.53 · n=30 4.50+1.57 · n=30 4.80+1.67 · n=30 4.83+1.70 · n=30 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KMSY —2.23+0.17 · n=30 2.40+0.20 · n=30 2.50+0.23 · n=30 2.63+0.50 · n=30 2.70+0.50 · n=30 2.87+0.53 · n=30 3.03+0.50 · n=30 3.23+0.37 · n=30 3.33+0.20 · n=30 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KNYC —2.63+0.23 · n=30 3.23+0.17 · n=30 3.63+0.03 · n=30 3.90+0.10 · n=30 3.43+0.17 · n=30 3.53+0.40 · n=30 4.00+0.47 · n=30 3.90+0.57 · n=30 4.03+0.63 · n=30 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KOKC —3.80+0.13 · n=30 5.20+0.13 · n=30 5.90+0.23 · n=30 4.37+0.50 · n=30 3.60+0.80 · n=30 3.80+0.73 · n=30 4.80+0.53 · n=30 4.70+0.17 · n=30 4.27+0.00 · n=30 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KORD —3.10−0.03 · n=30 3.57+0.17 · n=30 3.33+0.07 · n=30 3.27−0.00 · n=30 3.73+0.07 · n=30 4.10+0.43 · n=30 4.37+0.50 · n=30 3.60+0.60 · n=30 3.80+0.47 · n=30 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KPHL —3.13+0.07 · n=30 2.93+0.07 · n=30 3.50+0.03 · n=30 3.70+0.10 · n=30 3.83+0.17 · n=30 3.53+0.33 · n=30 4.07+0.40 · n=30 4.43+0.43 · n=30 4.57+0.57 · n=30 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KPHX —3.10+0.30 · n=30 4.50+0.30 · n=30 5.47+0.27 · n=30 5.60+0.07 · n=30 5.60−0.07 · n=30 5.23−0.23 · n=30 4.93+0.07 · n=30 4.87+0.20 · n=30 4.43+0.17 · n=30 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KSAN —1.83−0.03 · n=30 2.27−0.33 · n=30 2.13−0.53 · n=30 2.83−0.70 · n=30 2.70−1.03 · n=30 2.63−1.17 · n=30 3.27−1.33 · n=30 3.30−1.63 · n=30 3.03−1.70 · n=30 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KSAT —1.03+0.03 · n=30 1.40+0.07 · n=30 1.57−0.03 · n=30 1.67−0.20 · n=30 1.80−0.33 · n=30 2.00−0.53 · n=30 2.00−0.80 · n=30 2.30−1.10 · n=30 2.20−1.27 · n=30 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KSEA —3.40+0.47 · n=30 5.67+0.73 · n=30 6.33+0.80 · n=30 5.97+0.77 · n=30 5.43+0.83 · n=30 5.17+0.50 · n=30 5.10+0.23 · n=30 5.73+0.47 · n=30 6.93+0.47 · n=30 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KSFO —3.03+0.03 · n=30 4.03+0.10 · n=30 3.67+0.27 · n=30 4.20+0.20 · n=30 4.23−0.03 · n=30 3.87−0.00 · n=30 3.80−0.07 · n=30 3.80−0.27 · n=30 3.63−0.23 · n=30 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli
KTTN —2.33+0.13 · n=30 2.83+0.23 · n=30 3.43+0.23 · n=30 3.60+0.33 · n=30 3.63+0.50 · n=30 3.53+0.73 · n=30 3.83+0.77 · n=30 4.20+0.80 · n=30 4.53+0.80 · n=30 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_native_cli

Native daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station d0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.03−0.10 · n=30 2.20−0.13 · n=30 1.87−0.13 · n=30 2.10+0.03 · n=30 2.20+0.13 · n=30 2.37+0.10 · n=30 2.43+0.17 · n=30 2.40+0.20 · n=30 2.53+0.27 · n=30 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KAUS —2.70+0.10 · n=30 3.17+0.30 · n=30 3.53+0.33 · n=30 3.27+0.27 · n=30 3.03+0.30 · n=30 2.93+0.40 · n=30 3.13+0.33 · n=30 2.73+0.53 · n=30 3.03+0.77 · n=30 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KBOS —1.93−0.07 · n=28 2.64−0.00 · n=28 3.00−0.03 · n=29 3.17−0.07 · n=29 3.66−0.28 · n=29 4.24−0.45 · n=29 4.79−0.66 · n=29 5.21−0.72 · n=29 5.41−0.86 · n=29 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KDCA —2.30−0.03 · n=30 3.33+0.07 · n=30 3.07−0.07 · n=30 3.43−0.23 · n=30 3.87−0.07 · n=30 4.17+0.10 · n=30 4.57+0.17 · n=30 4.73+0.13 · n=30 4.37+0.10 · n=30 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KDEN —4.00+0.07 · n=30 4.77+0.17 · n=30 5.80+0.33 · n=30 5.80+0.53 · n=30 6.27+1.13 · n=30 5.90+1.43 · n=30 6.27+1.73 · n=30 6.23+1.77 · n=30 5.47+1.87 · n=30 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KDFW —2.00+0.07 · n=30 2.50+0.17 · n=30 2.77+0.23 · n=30 3.07+0.27 · n=30 2.67+0.20 · n=30 2.77+0.10 · n=30 2.37−0.10 · n=30 2.17−0.23 · n=30 2.80−0.27 · n=30 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KEWR —3.10+0.10 · n=30 4.33+0.27 · n=30 4.10+0.30 · n=30 3.10+0.30 · n=30 2.87+0.47 · n=30 3.67+0.47 · n=30 4.53+0.47 · n=30 5.10+0.30 · n=30 4.27+0.20 · n=30 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KIAH —2.13+0.00 · n=30 2.67+0.13 · n=30 2.80+0.27 · n=30 2.73+0.13 · n=30 2.60+0.07 · n=30 2.53−0.07 · n=30 3.23−0.17 · n=30 3.03−0.30 · n=30 3.20−0.47 · n=30 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KLAS —2.37−0.03 · n=30 3.90−0.10 · n=30 4.80−0.13 · n=30 5.47−0.20 · n=30 6.20−0.07 · n=30 6.57+0.17 · n=30 6.50+0.23 · n=30 6.63+0.43 · n=30 6.77+0.50 · n=30 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KLAX —0.87−0.13 · n=30 1.20−0.33 · n=30 1.40−0.53 · n=30 1.40−0.73 · n=30 1.63−0.83 · n=30 1.93−0.87 · n=30 2.10−0.83 · n=30 2.10−0.90 · n=30 2.17−0.97 · n=30 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KMIA —2.73+0.00 · n=30 2.33+0.13 · n=30 2.70+0.10 · n=30 3.23+0.10 · n=30 2.63+0.03 · n=30 3.20+0.00 · n=30 2.87+0.13 · n=30 3.20+0.20 · n=30 3.47+0.27 · n=30 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KMSP —3.57−0.17 · n=30 4.93+0.07 · n=30 4.77+0.50 · n=30 4.23+0.77 · n=30 5.03+1.10 · n=30 6.20+1.33 · n=30 6.43+1.70 · n=30 6.03+2.03 · n=30 5.87+1.93 · n=30 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KMSY —1.67−0.07 · n=30 2.17+0.03 · n=30 2.23+0.10 · n=30 2.17+0.30 · n=30 1.90+0.43 · n=30 2.20+0.53 · n=30 2.17+0.57 · n=30 2.60+0.47 · n=30 2.67+0.67 · n=30 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KNYC —2.67+0.00 · n=30 3.60+0.07 · n=30 3.37+0.10 · n=30 2.53+0.13 · n=30 2.73+0.27 · n=30 3.70+0.30 · n=30 3.97+0.30 · n=30 3.93+0.20 · n=30 4.10+0.10 · n=30 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KOKC —3.37+0.10 · n=30 4.27+0.33 · n=30 4.93+0.47 · n=30 4.70+0.37 · n=30 3.67+0.13 · n=30 4.03+0.17 · n=30 4.47−0.00 · n=30 5.23+0.03 · n=30 5.47−0.07 · n=30 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KORD —2.90+0.03 · n=30 3.17−0.03 · n=30 3.90−0.17 · n=30 3.30−0.17 · n=30 3.90−0.17 · n=30 4.57+0.23 · n=30 4.80+0.40 · n=30 4.40+0.47 · n=30 4.60+0.20 · n=30 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KPHL —2.70+0.23 · n=30 3.47+0.47 · n=30 3.43+0.43 · n=30 2.90+0.43 · n=30 3.03+0.57 · n=30 3.57+0.57 · n=30 4.23+0.63 · n=30 4.40+0.60 · n=30 4.90+0.50 · n=30 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KPHX —3.13+0.20 · n=30 4.73+0.33 · n=30 5.20+0.27 · n=30 5.53−0.13 · n=30 5.30−0.03 · n=30 5.37+0.03 · n=30 5.20+0.33 · n=30 5.57+0.63 · n=30 5.50+0.70 · n=30 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KSAN —0.80−0.20 · n=30 1.03−0.37 · n=30 1.13−0.53 · n=30 1.23−0.63 · n=30 1.43−0.77 · n=30 1.70−0.77 · n=30 1.57−0.83 · n=30 1.67−0.80 · n=30 1.87−0.80 · n=30 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KSAT —1.43−0.03 · n=30 1.57+0.10 · n=30 1.20+0.33 · n=30 1.37+0.30 · n=30 1.43+0.23 · n=30 1.50+0.30 · n=30 1.53+0.33 · n=30 1.60+0.40 · n=30 1.87+0.60 · n=30 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KSEA —1.63+0.03 · n=30 1.93+0.00 · n=30 2.30−0.03 · n=30 1.93−0.07 · n=30 2.37−0.03 · n=30 2.37−0.03 · n=30 2.43−0.03 · n=30 2.30−0.10 · n=30 2.37−0.03 · n=30 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KSFO —0.93+0.00 · n=30 1.03+0.03 · n=30 0.93+0.07 · n=30 1.30+0.10 · n=30 1.13+0.20 · n=30 1.03+0.23 · n=30 1.17+0.30 · n=30 1.07+0.40 · n=30 1.07+0.40 · n=30 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli
KTTN —2.97+0.23 · n=30 3.93+0.53 · n=30 3.97+0.57 · n=30 3.10+0.57 · n=30 3.00+0.80 · n=30 3.83+0.77 · n=30 4.47+0.87 · n=30 5.23+0.70 · n=30 5.00+0.53 · n=30 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_native_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

truth · yesterday's observation

Steps every 24 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

Derived from NWS observations; public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.