Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Persistence (baseline) (persistence)

source truth · product yesterday's observation · steps every 24 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, obs, starting 2024-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.59-0.06 · n=90 3.28-0.21 · n=90 3.52-0.30 · n=90 3.87-0.36 · n=90 4.12-0.39 · n=90 4.16-0.49 · n=90 4.18-0.60 · n=90 4.03-0.74 · n=90 4.26-0.86 · n=90 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —2.20-0.09 · n=90 2.98-0.20 · n=90 3.17-0.34 · n=90 3.16-0.49 · n=90 3.23-0.63 · n=90 3.72-0.92 · n=90 3.81-1.10 · n=90 3.86-1.28 · n=90 3.77-1.48 · n=90 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —5.27-0.43 · n=88 7.48-0.30 · n=88 8.00-0.63 · n=89 8.26-0.82 · n=89 8.38-0.74 · n=89 8.40-0.67 · n=89 9.09-0.69 · n=89 8.98-0.78 · n=89 9.16-1.00 · n=89 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —4.36-0.11 · n=90 5.74-0.21 · n=90 6.31-0.40 · n=90 6.49-0.49 · n=90 6.71-0.53 · n=90 6.87-0.56 · n=90 6.60-0.64 · n=90 6.69-0.78 · n=90 7.14-0.92 · n=90 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —4.89-0.07 · n=90 5.98-0.20 · n=90 6.33-0.40 · n=90 6.46-0.50 · n=90 6.28-0.61 · n=90 6.02-0.78 · n=90 6.54-0.90 · n=90 6.12-0.99 · n=90 6.32-1.10 · n=90 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —2.28-0.08 · n=90 3.17-0.17 · n=90 3.66-0.26 · n=90 3.67-0.36 · n=90 3.81-0.50 · n=90 3.92-0.68 · n=90 3.91-0.91 · n=90 3.88-1.14 · n=90 3.54-1.32 · n=90 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —4.44-0.09 · n=90 6.12-0.10 · n=90 7.21-0.30 · n=90 7.66-0.30 · n=90 7.14-0.34 · n=90 7.17-0.30 · n=90 6.81-0.30 · n=90 7.49-0.36 · n=90 7.76-0.60 · n=90 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —2.12-0.03 · n=90 2.98-0.11 · n=90 3.42-0.18 · n=90 3.64-0.27 · n=90 3.92-0.39 · n=90 4.31-0.62 · n=90 4.24-0.78 · n=90 4.02-0.91 · n=90 3.88-1.10 · n=90 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —2.94-0.01 · n=90 4.07-0.13 · n=90 4.94-0.34 · n=90 5.52-0.70 · n=90 6.22-1.00 · n=90 6.80-1.29 · n=90 6.83-1.48 · n=90 6.76-1.64 · n=90 7.14-1.81 · n=90 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —1.61-0.12 · n=90 1.91-0.29 · n=90 2.01-0.46 · n=90 2.21-0.70 · n=90 2.38-0.91 · n=90 2.48-1.12 · n=90 2.72-1.30 · n=90 2.77-1.48 · n=90 2.94-1.63 · n=90 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —1.41+0.03 · n=90 1.89+0.09 · n=90 2.18+0.02 · n=90 2.23+0.01 · n=90 2.28-0.06 · n=90 2.36-0.09 · n=90 2.48-0.12 · n=90 2.53-0.18 · n=90 2.61-0.23 · n=90 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —3.53-0.07 · n=90 4.71-0.20 · n=90 5.17-0.19 · n=90 5.93-0.13 · n=90 6.36-0.11 · n=90 6.34-0.03 · n=90 6.33-0.00 · n=90 6.80+0.07 · n=90 6.63+0.10 · n=90 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —1.96-0.04 · n=90 2.39-0.08 · n=90 2.61-0.12 · n=90 2.81-0.12 · n=90 2.89-0.20 · n=90 3.08-0.28 · n=90 3.17-0.39 · n=90 3.21-0.61 · n=90 3.22-0.80 · n=90 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —3.94-0.08 · n=90 5.47-0.09 · n=90 6.43-0.26 · n=90 6.61-0.28 · n=90 6.43-0.34 · n=90 6.44-0.31 · n=90 6.07-0.31 · n=90 6.41-0.39 · n=90 6.76-0.62 · n=90 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —3.86-0.08 · n=90 5.32-0.17 · n=90 5.77-0.26 · n=90 4.99-0.30 · n=90 4.92-0.41 · n=90 5.57-0.70 · n=90 5.94-0.94 · n=90 5.72-1.10 · n=90 5.37-1.26 · n=90 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —4.12-0.10 · n=90 5.41-0.17 · n=90 5.52-0.28 · n=90 6.04-0.24 · n=90 6.40-0.38 · n=90 6.93-0.36 · n=90 7.49-0.29 · n=90 7.04-0.22 · n=90 6.72-0.28 · n=90 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —4.01-0.08 · n=90 5.10-0.12 · n=90 5.92-0.30 · n=90 6.02-0.33 · n=90 6.69-0.40 · n=90 6.44-0.38 · n=90 6.26-0.39 · n=90 6.76-0.49 · n=90 7.12-0.68 · n=90 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —2.86-0.03 · n=90 4.10-0.19 · n=90 4.88-0.41 · n=90 5.49-0.71 · n=90 5.92-0.99 · n=90 5.87-1.20 · n=90 5.88-1.32 · n=90 5.89-1.49 · n=90 5.72-1.66 · n=90 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —1.50-0.12 · n=90 1.90-0.30 · n=90 1.99-0.46 · n=90 2.27-0.60 · n=90 2.27-0.82 · n=90 2.30-1.01 · n=90 2.63-1.17 · n=90 2.64-1.36 · n=90 2.64-1.51 · n=90 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —1.92-0.08 · n=90 2.67-0.20 · n=90 2.97-0.37 · n=90 3.00-0.51 · n=90 3.02-0.64 · n=90 3.28-0.83 · n=90 3.42-1.02 · n=90 3.48-1.21 · n=90 3.41-1.39 · n=90 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —4.84+0.07 · n=90 7.43+0.03 · n=90 8.08-0.08 · n=90 8.12-0.23 · n=90 8.07-0.18 · n=90 8.43-0.28 · n=90 8.53-0.49 · n=90 8.48-0.66 · n=90 8.72-0.70 · n=90 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —3.58+0.00 · n=90 4.39+0.01 · n=90 4.61+0.01 · n=90 5.08-0.10 · n=90 5.17-0.21 · n=90 5.06-0.19 · n=90 4.67-0.29 · n=90 4.88-0.41 · n=90 4.74-0.39 · n=90 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —3.81-0.08 · n=90 5.37-0.10 · n=90 6.38-0.27 · n=90 6.46-0.30 · n=90 6.49-0.36 · n=90 6.50-0.30 · n=90 6.22-0.27 · n=90 6.62-0.36 · n=90 7.09-0.60 · n=90 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —1.93-0.09 · n=90 2.43-0.19 · n=90 2.76-0.22 · n=90 3.11-0.22 · n=90 3.17-0.23 · n=90 3.40-0.27 · n=90 3.53-0.29 · n=90 3.46-0.34 · n=90 3.56-0.38 · n=90 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —2.36-0.02 · n=90 3.04-0.04 · n=90 3.09-0.09 · n=90 2.93-0.16 · n=90 3.09-0.29 · n=90 3.16-0.36 · n=90 3.29-0.47 · n=90 3.37-0.52 · n=90 3.54-0.61 · n=90 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —2.90-0.22 · n=88 4.41-0.41 · n=88 5.01-0.63 · n=89 5.35-0.74 · n=89 5.12-0.81 · n=89 5.16-0.82 · n=89 5.62-0.92 · n=89 5.87-1.03 · n=89 6.02-1.21 · n=89 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —2.89-0.13 · n=90 4.11-0.31 · n=90 4.14-0.46 · n=90 4.39-0.66 · n=90 4.80-0.69 · n=90 5.24-0.64 · n=90 5.20-0.67 · n=90 5.17-0.72 · n=90 5.24-0.87 · n=90 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —3.50-0.06 · n=90 4.04-0.24 · n=90 4.94-0.37 · n=90 4.91-0.42 · n=90 5.24-0.49 · n=90 5.17-0.59 · n=90 5.10-0.68 · n=90 5.04-0.84 · n=90 5.04-0.93 · n=90 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —2.08-0.06 · n=90 2.64-0.09 · n=90 2.94-0.12 · n=90 3.22-0.20 · n=90 3.08-0.34 · n=90 3.38-0.51 · n=90 3.23-0.72 · n=90 3.10-0.92 · n=90 3.34-1.06 · n=90 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —3.27-0.09 · n=90 4.83-0.28 · n=90 5.23-0.46 · n=90 4.97-0.59 · n=90 4.82-0.62 · n=90 5.16-0.60 · n=90 5.32-0.66 · n=90 5.69-0.78 · n=90 5.59-0.97 · n=90 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —1.99-0.01 · n=90 2.38-0.02 · n=90 2.50-0.03 · n=90 2.47-0.16 · n=90 2.47-0.31 · n=90 2.47-0.47 · n=90 2.78-0.56 · n=90 2.87-0.67 · n=90 3.17-0.83 · n=90 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —2.40-0.13 · n=90 3.82-0.31 · n=90 4.61-0.59 · n=90 5.34-0.92 · n=90 5.92-1.26 · n=90 6.34-1.54 · n=90 6.34-1.83 · n=90 6.52-2.03 · n=90 6.89-2.20 · n=90 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —0.96-0.11 · n=90 1.40-0.27 · n=90 1.42-0.42 · n=90 1.42-0.60 · n=90 1.56-0.78 · n=90 1.81-0.92 · n=90 2.00-1.04 · n=90 2.07-1.18 · n=90 2.20-1.29 · n=90 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —2.40-0.04 · n=90 2.90-0.06 · n=90 2.98-0.09 · n=90 2.99-0.12 · n=90 3.01-0.14 · n=90 3.14-0.14 · n=90 3.16-0.11 · n=90 3.36-0.13 · n=90 3.47-0.16 · n=90 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —3.11-0.09 · n=90 4.44-0.16 · n=90 4.76-0.07 · n=90 5.10-0.03 · n=90 5.61-0.06 · n=90 6.31-0.07 · n=90 6.73+0.04 · n=90 6.48+0.10 · n=90 6.33-0.02 · n=90 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —1.44-0.07 · n=90 1.97-0.08 · n=90 2.11-0.11 · n=90 2.04-0.11 · n=90 1.99-0.12 · n=90 2.12-0.12 · n=90 2.06-0.21 · n=90 2.20-0.31 · n=90 2.30-0.37 · n=90 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —2.69-0.16 · n=90 4.07-0.31 · n=90 4.50-0.50 · n=90 4.51-0.62 · n=90 4.63-0.66 · n=90 4.80-0.60 · n=90 4.93-0.67 · n=90 4.97-0.81 · n=90 5.22-1.00 · n=90 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —2.88-0.06 · n=90 3.78-0.02 · n=90 4.26-0.06 · n=90 4.29-0.13 · n=90 4.29-0.27 · n=90 4.50-0.34 · n=90 4.42-0.53 · n=90 4.54-0.68 · n=90 4.71-0.87 · n=90 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —3.32-0.17 · n=90 4.32-0.28 · n=90 5.32-0.41 · n=90 5.37-0.59 · n=90 5.86-0.81 · n=90 6.53-0.82 · n=90 6.91-0.76 · n=90 6.80-0.78 · n=90 6.83-0.88 · n=90 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —3.22-0.09 · n=90 4.52-0.23 · n=90 4.82-0.42 · n=90 4.74-0.54 · n=90 4.81-0.59 · n=90 5.07-0.56 · n=90 5.01-0.57 · n=90 5.12-0.66 · n=90 5.60-0.84 · n=90 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —3.09-0.13 · n=90 4.53-0.33 · n=90 5.26-0.61 · n=90 5.86-0.90 · n=90 6.48-1.12 · n=90 6.67-1.31 · n=90 6.64-1.47 · n=90 6.78-1.56 · n=90 6.84-1.71 · n=90 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —0.81-0.12 · n=90 1.03-0.26 · n=90 1.28-0.41 · n=90 1.47-0.56 · n=90 1.61-0.72 · n=90 1.80-0.84 · n=90 1.84-0.96 · n=90 1.97-1.03 · n=90 2.07-1.11 · n=90 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —1.64-0.07 · n=90 2.12-0.10 · n=90 2.07-0.09 · n=90 2.00-0.16 · n=90 1.91-0.31 · n=90 2.19-0.43 · n=90 2.48-0.57 · n=90 2.78-0.62 · n=90 2.81-0.72 · n=90 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —2.20-0.07 · n=90 2.91-0.16 · n=90 3.33-0.29 · n=90 3.30-0.41 · n=90 3.39-0.43 · n=90 3.36-0.56 · n=90 3.48-0.66 · n=90 3.29-0.76 · n=90 3.43-0.86 · n=90 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —1.16-0.04 · n=90 1.59-0.10 · n=90 1.67-0.16 · n=90 1.98-0.20 · n=90 2.03-0.21 · n=90 1.89-0.29 · n=90 1.94-0.34 · n=90 1.97-0.37 · n=90 2.08-0.41 · n=90 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —3.72-0.08 · n=90 5.36-0.24 · n=90 5.88-0.43 · n=90 5.57-0.59 · n=90 5.37-0.61 · n=90 5.36-0.56 · n=90 5.62-0.56 · n=90 5.92-0.63 · n=90 6.24-0.80 · n=90 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

truth · yesterday's observation

Steps every 24 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

Derived from NWS observations; public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences