Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Persistence (baseline) (persistence)

source truth · product yesterday's observation · steps every 24 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, obs, starting 2024-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.66-0.01 · n=365 6.32-0.02 · n=365 6.73-0.05 · n=365 7.12-0.07 · n=365 7.33-0.09 · n=365 7.63-0.11 · n=365 7.90-0.12 · n=365 8.18-0.16 · n=365 8.33-0.19 · n=365 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —4.87+0.00 · n=365 6.64+0.00 · n=365 7.23-0.01 · n=365 7.35-0.03 · n=365 7.59-0.04 · n=365 7.88-0.05 · n=365 8.03-0.07 · n=365 8.24-0.09 · n=365 8.41-0.13 · n=365 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —6.60-0.05 · n=363 8.48-0.01 · n=363 9.00-0.03 · n=364 8.90-0.07 · n=364 9.48-0.02 · n=364 9.41-0.03 · n=364 9.70-0.04 · n=364 9.54-0.03 · n=364 9.60-0.01 · n=364 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —6.02-0.03 · n=363 8.31-0.04 · n=363 8.84+0.01 · n=363 8.90-0.09 · n=363 9.64-0.11 · n=363 9.64-0.10 · n=363 9.42-0.14 · n=363 9.56-0.13 · n=363 9.69-0.11 · n=363 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —7.62-0.02 · n=365 9.98-0.05 · n=365 10.65-0.10 · n=365 10.60-0.13 · n=365 10.77-0.16 · n=365 11.22-0.19 · n=365 11.48-0.23 · n=365 11.21-0.25 · n=365 11.23-0.28 · n=365 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —5.08-0.06 · n=365 6.92-0.12 · n=365 7.77-0.12 · n=365 7.99-0.14 · n=365 8.17-0.18 · n=365 8.38-0.19 · n=365 8.59-0.22 · n=365 8.67-0.25 · n=365 8.76-0.27 · n=365 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —6.04-0.01 · n=365 8.19-0.00 · n=365 8.96-0.02 · n=365 9.35-0.02 · n=365 9.89-0.03 · n=365 9.83-0.01 · n=365 9.67-0.01 · n=365 10.11-0.01 · n=365 10.18+0.01 · n=365 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —4.09-0.01 · n=365 5.80-0.01 · n=365 6.33-0.01 · n=365 6.42-0.03 · n=365 6.64-0.04 · n=365 6.94-0.05 · n=365 7.03-0.06 · n=365 7.22-0.07 · n=365 7.46-0.11 · n=365 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —3.32+0.00 · n=365 4.87-0.03 · n=365 5.95-0.07 · n=365 6.61-0.10 · n=365 7.22-0.15 · n=365 7.68-0.20 · n=365 7.79-0.21 · n=365 7.76-0.22 · n=365 7.83-0.24 · n=365 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —2.91+0.00 · n=365 4.21-0.01 · n=365 4.70-0.01 · n=365 4.94-0.04 · n=365 5.04-0.07 · n=365 5.21-0.09 · n=365 5.35-0.11 · n=365 5.51-0.10 · n=365 5.56-0.09 · n=365 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —2.57+0.01 · n=365 3.38+0.01 · n=365 3.76+0.01 · n=365 3.97+0.02 · n=365 4.04+0.02 · n=365 4.02+0.02 · n=365 4.30+0.03 · n=365 4.36+0.02 · n=365 4.43+0.02 · n=365 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —6.29-0.02 · n=365 8.86-0.04 · n=365 9.87-0.04 · n=365 10.36-0.06 · n=365 10.89-0.08 · n=365 11.51-0.11 · n=365 11.81-0.15 · n=365 11.94-0.18 · n=365 11.83-0.18 · n=365 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —4.21-0.00 · n=365 5.62-0.03 · n=365 5.99-0.03 · n=365 6.36-0.02 · n=365 6.48-0.02 · n=365 6.70-0.02 · n=365 6.97-0.02 · n=365 6.85-0.03 · n=365 7.05-0.05 · n=365 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —5.48-0.01 · n=365 7.67+0.00 · n=365 8.39-0.02 · n=365 8.49-0.02 · n=365 9.12-0.03 · n=365 9.22-0.01 · n=365 9.04-0.00 · n=365 9.37+0.00 · n=365 9.41+0.02 · n=365 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —6.28-0.06 · n=365 8.67-0.15 · n=365 9.27-0.21 · n=365 9.31-0.25 · n=365 9.61-0.33 · n=365 10.06-0.41 · n=365 10.37-0.45 · n=365 10.57-0.48 · n=365 10.76-0.49 · n=365 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —6.61-0.02 · n=365 8.81-0.05 · n=365 9.82-0.07 · n=365 10.09-0.08 · n=365 10.53-0.11 · n=365 11.02-0.14 · n=365 11.50-0.16 · n=365 11.44-0.14 · n=365 11.22-0.14 · n=365 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —5.76-0.03 · n=365 7.88-0.03 · n=365 8.64-0.05 · n=365 8.75-0.07 · n=365 9.44-0.08 · n=365 9.25-0.07 · n=365 9.33-0.06 · n=365 9.61-0.06 · n=365 9.56-0.05 · n=365 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —3.24+0.00 · n=365 4.78-0.03 · n=365 5.74-0.05 · n=365 6.23-0.08 · n=365 6.73-0.13 · n=365 6.91-0.16 · n=365 6.96-0.16 · n=365 7.02-0.16 · n=365 7.19-0.17 · n=365 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —2.62+0.01 · n=365 3.74+0.01 · n=365 4.14+0.00 · n=365 4.25-0.01 · n=365 4.32-0.04 · n=365 4.56-0.06 · n=365 4.69-0.07 · n=365 4.64-0.09 · n=365 4.58-0.10 · n=365 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —4.30+0.01 · n=365 6.01+0.02 · n=365 6.69+0.02 · n=365 6.87+0.01 · n=365 6.97-0.00 · n=365 7.19-0.01 · n=365 7.32-0.02 · n=365 7.43-0.04 · n=365 7.68-0.05 · n=365 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —4.44+0.00 · n=365 5.92+0.01 · n=365 6.32+0.03 · n=365 6.20+0.03 · n=365 6.58+0.06 · n=365 6.78+0.08 · n=365 6.94+0.11 · n=365 6.85+0.15 · n=365 7.03+0.18 · n=365 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —3.67+0.04 · n=365 4.78+0.04 · n=365 5.25+0.06 · n=365 5.58+0.07 · n=365 5.70+0.07 · n=365 5.68+0.07 · n=365 5.60+0.06 · n=365 5.64+0.04 · n=365 5.70+0.05 · n=365 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —5.76-0.02 · n=365 7.98-0.02 · n=365 8.85-0.03 · n=365 8.98-0.05 · n=365 9.56-0.05 · n=365 9.40-0.03 · n=365 9.45-0.02 · n=365 9.75-0.02 · n=365 9.76-0.01 · n=365 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 3 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.18-0.01 · n=365 5.92-0.03 · n=365 6.85-0.05 · n=365 7.33-0.08 · n=365 7.40-0.10 · n=365 7.65-0.12 · n=365 8.01-0.13 · n=365 8.18-0.13 · n=365 8.32-0.14 · n=365 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —5.13+0.01 · n=365 7.29+0.02 · n=365 8.26+0.03 · n=365 8.72+0.02 · n=365 9.13+0.00 · n=365 9.45+0.00 · n=365 9.68-0.01 · n=365 9.84-0.01 · n=365 10.18-0.01 · n=365 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —4.07-0.03 · n=363 5.72-0.02 · n=363 6.26-0.04 · n=364 6.38-0.06 · n=364 6.63-0.06 · n=364 6.63-0.06 · n=364 6.74-0.07 · n=364 6.93-0.07 · n=364 7.17-0.10 · n=364 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —4.43-0.05 · n=363 6.11-0.05 · n=363 6.46-0.06 · n=363 6.44-0.13 · n=363 6.68-0.13 · n=363 6.99-0.15 · n=363 7.09-0.13 · n=363 7.33-0.16 · n=363 7.58-0.12 · n=363 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —4.98-0.01 · n=365 6.74-0.02 · n=365 7.53-0.04 · n=365 7.81-0.04 · n=365 8.12-0.04 · n=365 8.60-0.05 · n=365 8.67-0.06 · n=365 8.60-0.07 · n=365 8.68-0.08 · n=365 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —4.26-0.02 · n=365 6.10-0.04 · n=365 6.81-0.05 · n=365 7.29-0.08 · n=365 7.88-0.10 · n=365 8.15-0.12 · n=365 8.39-0.15 · n=365 8.50-0.17 · n=365 8.67-0.17 · n=365 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —4.52-0.02 · n=365 6.30-0.02 · n=365 6.87-0.06 · n=365 6.95-0.08 · n=365 6.88-0.08 · n=365 7.25-0.07 · n=365 7.46-0.06 · n=365 7.44-0.07 · n=365 7.59-0.10 · n=365 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —4.36-0.00 · n=365 6.56+0.01 · n=365 7.30+0.02 · n=365 7.73+0.00 · n=365 7.92-0.01 · n=365 8.04-0.02 · n=365 8.39-0.03 · n=365 8.92-0.04 · n=365 9.07-0.06 · n=365 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —2.71-0.02 · n=365 4.00-0.06 · n=365 4.86-0.09 · n=365 5.40-0.14 · n=365 5.89-0.16 · n=365 6.13-0.17 · n=365 6.12-0.18 · n=365 6.15-0.18 · n=365 6.27-0.18 · n=365 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —1.86-0.01 · n=365 2.49-0.02 · n=365 2.64-0.04 · n=365 2.72-0.06 · n=365 2.77-0.08 · n=365 2.95-0.09 · n=365 3.09-0.09 · n=365 3.15-0.09 · n=365 3.12-0.09 · n=365 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —2.74-0.01 · n=365 3.78-0.01 · n=365 4.26-0.01 · n=365 4.54-0.01 · n=365 4.84+0.00 · n=365 5.12-0.00 · n=365 5.36-0.00 · n=365 5.58-0.01 · n=365 5.63-0.02 · n=365 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —4.92-0.03 · n=365 7.29-0.04 · n=365 8.11-0.04 · n=365 8.71-0.04 · n=365 9.42-0.07 · n=365 10.22-0.11 · n=365 10.70-0.12 · n=365 10.91-0.11 · n=365 10.84-0.10 · n=365 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —3.78-0.02 · n=365 5.53-0.02 · n=365 6.43-0.02 · n=365 6.79-0.01 · n=365 7.15+0.00 · n=365 7.28+0.01 · n=365 7.50+0.01 · n=365 7.85-0.00 · n=365 7.90+0.01 · n=365 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —4.18-0.03 · n=365 6.22-0.02 · n=365 6.94-0.04 · n=365 6.95-0.06 · n=365 6.90-0.07 · n=365 7.06-0.05 · n=365 7.25-0.04 · n=365 7.35-0.04 · n=365 7.68-0.07 · n=365 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —5.22-0.02 · n=365 6.96-0.02 · n=365 7.59-0.04 · n=365 8.32-0.06 · n=365 9.00-0.10 · n=365 9.62-0.12 · n=365 9.56-0.15 · n=365 9.51-0.16 · n=365 9.50-0.18 · n=365 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —4.77-0.02 · n=365 6.56-0.05 · n=365 7.80-0.07 · n=365 8.11-0.09 · n=365 8.56-0.14 · n=365 9.16-0.15 · n=365 9.46-0.15 · n=365 9.58-0.14 · n=365 9.77-0.15 · n=365 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —4.22-0.02 · n=365 5.87-0.03 · n=365 6.26-0.06 · n=365 6.30-0.08 · n=365 6.51-0.09 · n=365 6.74-0.08 · n=365 6.76-0.08 · n=365 6.81-0.08 · n=365 7.10-0.11 · n=365 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —2.82-0.01 · n=365 3.99-0.03 · n=365 4.55-0.05 · n=365 4.95-0.09 · n=365 5.26-0.13 · n=365 5.47-0.16 · n=365 5.44-0.15 · n=365 5.37-0.14 · n=365 5.45-0.14 · n=365 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —1.93-0.01 · n=365 2.61-0.03 · n=365 3.00-0.04 · n=365 3.36-0.05 · n=365 3.42-0.06 · n=365 3.58-0.07 · n=365 3.56-0.07 · n=365 3.56-0.07 · n=365 3.55-0.07 · n=365 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —4.05-0.00 · n=365 6.09+0.01 · n=365 7.20+0.03 · n=365 7.59+0.03 · n=365 7.90+0.02 · n=365 8.05+0.03 · n=365 8.28+0.02 · n=365 8.52+0.02 · n=365 8.70+0.02 · n=365 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —2.82+0.01 · n=365 3.75+0.01 · n=365 4.15+0.02 · n=365 4.38+0.03 · n=365 4.62+0.04 · n=365 4.84+0.04 · n=365 4.92+0.06 · n=365 4.86+0.07 · n=365 4.99+0.06 · n=365 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —1.93+0.00 · n=365 2.43+0.01 · n=365 2.67+0.02 · n=365 2.96+0.02 · n=365 3.13+0.03 · n=365 3.24+0.04 · n=365 3.36+0.04 · n=365 3.45+0.04 · n=365 3.42+0.03 · n=365 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —4.84-0.02 · n=365 6.79-0.02 · n=365 7.34-0.07 · n=365 7.33-0.10 · n=365 7.35-0.12 · n=365 7.63-0.10 · n=365 7.78-0.10 · n=365 7.70-0.11 · n=365 8.03-0.14 · n=365 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

truth · yesterday's observation

Steps every 24 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

Derived from NWS observations; public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences