Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Persistence (baseline) (persistence)

source truth · product yesterday's observation · steps every 24 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, obs, starting 2024-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —4.65-0.04 · n=972 6.27-0.08 · n=971 6.71-0.12 · n=970 7.11-0.16 · n=969 7.58-0.20 · n=968 7.78-0.25 · n=967 7.89-0.29 · n=966 8.12-0.33 · n=965 8.29-0.37 · n=964 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —4.64-0.04 · n=972 6.33-0.09 · n=971 7.08-0.14 · n=970 7.39-0.19 · n=969 7.63-0.23 · n=968 7.72-0.27 · n=967 7.95-0.31 · n=966 8.11-0.34 · n=965 8.24-0.39 · n=964 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —6.55-0.06 · n=970 8.73-0.08 · n=969 9.24-0.12 · n=969 9.27-0.17 · n=968 9.55-0.20 · n=967 9.66-0.24 · n=966 9.90-0.29 · n=965 9.78-0.35 · n=964 9.69-0.38 · n=963 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —5.71-0.05 · n=970 7.88-0.09 · n=969 8.51-0.11 · n=968 8.91-0.18 · n=967 9.43-0.23 · n=966 9.26-0.28 · n=965 9.40-0.32 · n=964 9.52-0.36 · n=963 9.52-0.38 · n=962 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —7.53-0.03 · n=972 9.90-0.08 · n=971 10.95-0.13 · n=970 11.10-0.19 · n=969 11.10-0.23 · n=968 11.25-0.28 · n=967 11.43-0.34 · n=966 11.57-0.40 · n=965 11.62-0.46 · n=964 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —5.08-0.06 · n=972 6.98-0.11 · n=971 7.74-0.16 · n=970 8.19-0.20 · n=969 8.41-0.25 · n=968 8.55-0.31 · n=967 8.73-0.36 · n=966 8.92-0.41 · n=965 9.16-0.47 · n=964 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —6.06-0.03 · n=972 8.20-0.07 · n=971 8.85-0.11 · n=970 9.30-0.14 · n=969 9.59-0.19 · n=968 9.55-0.23 · n=967 9.65-0.27 · n=966 9.78-0.31 · n=965 9.83-0.33 · n=964 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —4.13-0.03 · n=972 5.58-0.08 · n=971 6.18-0.12 · n=970 6.42-0.16 · n=969 6.57-0.20 · n=968 6.73-0.23 · n=967 6.92-0.28 · n=966 7.16-0.30 · n=965 7.32-0.35 · n=964 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —3.42-0.04 · n=972 5.09-0.08 · n=971 6.04-0.14 · n=970 6.74-0.19 · n=969 7.25-0.25 · n=968 7.54-0.30 · n=967 7.64-0.36 · n=966 7.67-0.42 · n=965 7.71-0.49 · n=964 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —2.92-0.02 · n=970 3.95-0.03 · n=969 4.29-0.06 · n=968 4.57-0.09 · n=967 4.70-0.10 · n=966 4.86-0.13 · n=965 4.84-0.15 · n=964 4.90-0.18 · n=963 5.01-0.21 · n=962 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —2.37-0.02 · n=969 3.08-0.04 · n=967 3.40-0.06 · n=966 3.58-0.07 · n=965 3.64-0.08 · n=964 3.64-0.09 · n=963 3.79-0.11 · n=962 3.80-0.13 · n=961 3.80-0.14 · n=960 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —6.43-0.06 · n=972 8.64-0.11 · n=971 9.54-0.16 · n=970 10.28-0.22 · n=969 10.58-0.27 · n=968 11.16-0.32 · n=967 11.55-0.37 · n=966 11.65-0.43 · n=965 11.75-0.48 · n=964 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —3.93-0.03 · n=972 5.34-0.07 · n=971 5.68-0.10 · n=970 5.92-0.13 · n=969 6.25-0.16 · n=968 6.37-0.20 · n=967 6.54-0.24 · n=966 6.52-0.27 · n=965 6.68-0.29 · n=964 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —5.62-0.03 · n=972 7.72-0.07 · n=971 8.32-0.11 · n=970 8.69-0.14 · n=969 9.02-0.19 · n=968 9.10-0.23 · n=967 9.21-0.27 · n=966 9.28-0.31 · n=965 9.22-0.33 · n=964 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —6.03-0.06 · n=972 8.30-0.12 · n=971 9.02-0.17 · n=970 9.42-0.21 · n=969 9.54-0.27 · n=968 9.70-0.33 · n=967 9.91-0.39 · n=966 10.17-0.44 · n=965 10.42-0.50 · n=964 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —6.33-0.05 · n=972 8.70-0.09 · n=971 9.62-0.14 · n=970 9.81-0.19 · n=969 10.01-0.24 · n=968 10.59-0.29 · n=967 11.16-0.33 · n=966 11.21-0.38 · n=965 11.21-0.42 · n=964 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —5.65-0.04 · n=972 7.82-0.08 · n=971 8.57-0.12 · n=970 8.93-0.16 · n=969 9.33-0.21 · n=968 9.25-0.25 · n=967 9.49-0.30 · n=966 9.64-0.33 · n=965 9.52-0.36 · n=964 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —3.40-0.04 · n=972 5.10-0.09 · n=971 5.99-0.14 · n=970 6.57-0.20 · n=969 7.05-0.26 · n=968 7.27-0.31 · n=967 7.31-0.37 · n=966 7.30-0.43 · n=965 7.33-0.49 · n=964 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —2.56-0.02 · n=970 3.44-0.04 · n=969 3.72-0.06 · n=968 3.89-0.09 · n=967 4.05-0.12 · n=966 4.20-0.13 · n=965 4.18-0.16 · n=964 4.16-0.18 · n=963 4.14-0.20 · n=962 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —4.43-0.04 · n=972 6.00-0.09 · n=971 6.63-0.14 · n=970 6.98-0.18 · n=969 7.13-0.22 · n=968 7.27-0.26 · n=967 7.50-0.29 · n=966 7.68-0.33 · n=965 7.82-0.37 · n=964 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —4.31-0.02 · n=972 5.81-0.05 · n=971 6.34-0.07 · n=970 6.58-0.10 · n=969 6.84-0.13 · n=968 6.89-0.17 · n=967 7.14-0.22 · n=966 7.33-0.24 · n=965 7.52-0.27 · n=964 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —3.64-0.01 · n=967 4.85-0.01 · n=965 5.20-0.02 · n=964 5.39-0.03 · n=963 5.51-0.04 · n=962 5.55-0.04 · n=961 5.51-0.06 · n=960 5.61-0.09 · n=959 5.62-0.10 · n=958 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —5.90-0.04 · n=972 8.16-0.08 · n=971 8.80-0.12 · n=970 9.15-0.16 · n=969 9.53-0.20 · n=968 9.43-0.25 · n=967 9.72-0.28 · n=966 9.78-0.32 · n=965 9.67-0.35 · n=964 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 4 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —3.94-0.04 · n=972 5.49-0.09 · n=971 6.36-0.13 · n=970 6.84-0.17 · n=969 7.15-0.21 · n=968 7.41-0.25 · n=967 7.66-0.28 · n=966 7.79-0.33 · n=965 7.88-0.36 · n=964 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —5.02-0.03 · n=972 7.24-0.07 · n=971 8.08-0.10 · n=970 8.54-0.14 · n=969 8.77-0.18 · n=968 9.01-0.22 · n=967 9.18-0.27 · n=966 9.19-0.29 · n=965 9.27-0.33 · n=964 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —3.86-0.04 · n=970 5.37-0.08 · n=969 6.01-0.12 · n=969 6.27-0.16 · n=968 6.43-0.21 · n=967 6.51-0.24 · n=966 6.66-0.29 · n=965 6.80-0.33 · n=964 6.91-0.37 · n=963 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —4.03-0.04 · n=970 5.69-0.07 · n=969 6.40-0.11 · n=968 6.63-0.16 · n=967 6.88-0.20 · n=966 7.10-0.24 · n=965 7.24-0.27 · n=964 7.40-0.31 · n=963 7.59-0.32 · n=962 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —4.89-0.04 · n=972 6.45-0.08 · n=971 7.13-0.13 · n=970 7.48-0.17 · n=969 7.68-0.20 · n=968 7.94-0.25 · n=967 8.09-0.29 · n=966 8.23-0.36 · n=965 8.37-0.42 · n=964 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —4.29-0.05 · n=972 5.99-0.09 · n=971 6.71-0.13 · n=970 7.13-0.18 · n=969 7.35-0.22 · n=968 7.72-0.26 · n=967 7.95-0.32 · n=966 8.13-0.36 · n=965 8.17-0.41 · n=964 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —4.27-0.03 · n=972 5.96-0.06 · n=971 6.74-0.10 · n=970 7.06-0.14 · n=969 7.26-0.18 · n=968 7.42-0.23 · n=967 7.52-0.26 · n=966 7.49-0.29 · n=965 7.62-0.33 · n=964 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —4.14-0.03 · n=972 6.17-0.07 · n=971 6.95-0.10 · n=970 7.37-0.14 · n=969 7.67-0.18 · n=968 7.84-0.22 · n=967 8.07-0.27 · n=966 8.26-0.30 · n=965 8.29-0.34 · n=964 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —2.89-0.04 · n=972 4.20-0.09 · n=971 4.95-0.14 · n=970 5.44-0.19 · n=969 5.82-0.24 · n=968 6.01-0.29 · n=967 6.10-0.34 · n=966 6.17-0.40 · n=965 6.33-0.45 · n=964 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —1.95-0.03 · n=970 2.50-0.05 · n=969 2.75-0.08 · n=968 2.82-0.10 · n=967 2.91-0.12 · n=966 2.97-0.15 · n=965 3.05-0.17 · n=964 3.15-0.20 · n=963 3.22-0.23 · n=962 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —2.61-0.03 · n=969 3.62-0.05 · n=967 4.06-0.08 · n=966 4.38-0.10 · n=965 4.62-0.12 · n=964 4.74-0.12 · n=963 4.92-0.13 · n=962 5.04-0.15 · n=961 5.08-0.16 · n=960 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —4.81-0.05 · n=972 7.00-0.09 · n=971 7.96-0.13 · n=970 8.45-0.17 · n=969 8.85-0.21 · n=968 9.48-0.25 · n=967 9.93-0.29 · n=966 10.08-0.33 · n=965 10.20-0.36 · n=964 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —3.66-0.03 · n=972 5.24-0.07 · n=971 6.03-0.10 · n=970 6.40-0.13 · n=969 6.64-0.17 · n=968 6.90-0.20 · n=967 7.06-0.23 · n=966 7.23-0.26 · n=965 7.38-0.29 · n=964 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —3.99-0.03 · n=972 5.80-0.07 · n=971 6.54-0.10 · n=970 6.91-0.15 · n=969 7.04-0.18 · n=968 7.13-0.22 · n=967 7.29-0.25 · n=966 7.29-0.28 · n=965 7.39-0.32 · n=964 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —4.87-0.05 · n=972 6.60-0.10 · n=971 7.23-0.14 · n=970 7.58-0.19 · n=969 7.94-0.23 · n=968 8.47-0.28 · n=967 8.55-0.34 · n=966 8.63-0.38 · n=965 8.71-0.44 · n=964 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —4.76-0.04 · n=972 6.83-0.08 · n=971 7.84-0.12 · n=970 8.18-0.16 · n=969 8.47-0.21 · n=968 8.94-0.24 · n=967 9.33-0.27 · n=966 9.53-0.30 · n=965 9.80-0.33 · n=964 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —4.06-0.03 · n=972 5.61-0.06 · n=971 6.29-0.11 · n=970 6.55-0.15 · n=969 6.79-0.19 · n=968 6.98-0.23 · n=967 7.07-0.26 · n=966 7.08-0.30 · n=965 7.23-0.34 · n=964 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —2.72-0.04 · n=972 3.82-0.09 · n=971 4.43-0.14 · n=970 4.84-0.19 · n=969 5.11-0.24 · n=968 5.30-0.29 · n=967 5.34-0.34 · n=966 5.37-0.39 · n=965 5.52-0.45 · n=964 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —2.02-0.03 · n=970 2.66-0.05 · n=969 2.89-0.08 · n=968 3.17-0.11 · n=967 3.36-0.14 · n=966 3.46-0.17 · n=965 3.40-0.19 · n=964 3.41-0.23 · n=963 3.43-0.26 · n=962 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —4.03-0.03 · n=972 5.85-0.06 · n=971 6.76-0.09 · n=970 7.29-0.13 · n=969 7.62-0.17 · n=968 7.82-0.21 · n=967 7.90-0.25 · n=966 8.02-0.27 · n=965 8.08-0.31 · n=964 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —2.66-0.02 · n=972 3.56-0.04 · n=971 3.97-0.06 · n=970 4.22-0.07 · n=969 4.40-0.09 · n=968 4.56-0.12 · n=967 4.67-0.14 · n=966 4.76-0.16 · n=965 4.88-0.18 · n=964 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —1.96-0.01 · n=965 2.53-0.01 · n=963 2.74-0.02 · n=962 2.84-0.04 · n=961 2.89-0.05 · n=960 3.02-0.05 · n=959 3.18-0.07 · n=958 3.26-0.09 · n=957 3.21-0.10 · n=956 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —4.67-0.03 · n=972 6.41-0.06 · n=971 7.17-0.10 · n=970 7.44-0.15 · n=969 7.68-0.18 · n=968 7.87-0.22 · n=967 7.93-0.25 · n=966 7.89-0.29 · n=965 8.01-0.33 · n=964 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 3 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

truth · yesterday's observation

Steps every 24 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

Derived from NWS observations; public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences