Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Persistence (baseline) (persistence)

source truth · product yesterday's observation · steps every 24 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, obs, starting 2024-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.30+0.03 · n=30 2.40+0.07 · n=30 2.07-0.07 · n=30 3.03+0.10 · n=30 3.17+0.10 · n=30 3.10+0.03 · n=30 3.67-0.07 · n=30 3.83-0.23 · n=30 3.97-0.37 · n=30 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS —1.60+0.00 · n=30 1.83+0.03 · n=30 1.93-0.07 · n=30 1.90-0.23 · n=30 1.93-0.40 · n=30 2.07-0.60 · n=30 2.17-0.83 · n=30 2.47-1.13 · n=30 2.43-1.37 · n=30 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS —5.18-0.75 · n=28 6.57-0.14 · n=28 6.66-0.79 · n=29 7.00-0.93 · n=29 7.31-0.48 · n=29 7.62-0.79 · n=29 8.07-1.10 · n=29 8.00-1.31 · n=29 8.97-1.10 · n=29 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA —3.53-0.07 · n=30 3.43-0.03 · n=30 3.93-0.20 · n=30 4.10-0.10 · n=30 4.50+0.03 · n=30 4.63+0.03 · n=30 4.33-0.07 · n=30 4.23-0.23 · n=30 4.23-0.10 · n=30 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN —5.63+0.17 · n=30 7.37+0.23 · n=30 7.60+0.07 · n=30 7.90+0.10 · n=30 7.43+0.30 · n=30 8.03+0.90 · n=30 7.97+1.23 · n=30 7.27+1.33 · n=30 7.00+1.20 · n=30 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW —1.67+0.07 · n=30 2.47+0.00 · n=30 2.63-0.10 · n=30 2.53-0.13 · n=30 2.70-0.17 · n=30 2.77-0.23 · n=30 2.73-0.60 · n=30 2.87-1.07 · n=30 2.83-1.30 · n=30 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR —2.80+0.20 · n=30 3.27+0.13 · n=30 3.47+0.07 · n=30 4.20+0.13 · n=30 3.83+0.17 · n=30 4.03+0.30 · n=30 4.43+0.23 · n=30 4.80+0.20 · n=30 4.80+0.27 · n=30 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH —1.50+0.03 · n=30 1.93+0.07 · n=30 2.23+0.03 · n=30 2.60-0.07 · n=30 2.67-0.20 · n=30 2.83-0.30 · n=30 2.93-0.53 · n=30 3.07-0.73 · n=30 3.10-1.10 · n=30 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS —3.10+0.43 · n=30 3.97+0.63 · n=30 5.03+0.70 · n=30 5.47+0.67 · n=30 6.27+0.67 · n=30 6.97+0.77 · n=30 7.13+0.93 · n=30 6.93+1.07 · n=30 7.17+1.17 · n=30 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX —1.73-0.07 · n=30 1.90-0.37 · n=30 2.10-0.57 · n=30 2.33-0.93 · n=30 2.60-1.20 · n=30 2.70-1.37 · n=30 2.80-1.53 · n=30 2.90-1.77 · n=30 2.97-1.83 · n=30 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA —1.57+0.17 · n=30 2.10+0.37 · n=30 2.20+0.40 · n=30 2.33+0.33 · n=30 2.13+0.33 · n=30 2.60+0.40 · n=30 2.83+0.43 · n=30 2.70+0.43 · n=30 2.80+0.40 · n=30 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP —2.80-0.33 · n=30 3.33-0.13 · n=30 3.67+0.13 · n=30 4.03+0.37 · n=30 4.77+0.97 · n=30 4.80+1.53 · n=30 4.50+1.57 · n=30 4.80+1.67 · n=30 4.83+1.70 · n=30 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY —2.23+0.17 · n=30 2.40+0.20 · n=30 2.50+0.23 · n=30 2.63+0.50 · n=30 2.70+0.50 · n=30 2.87+0.53 · n=30 3.03+0.50 · n=30 3.23+0.37 · n=30 3.33+0.20 · n=30 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC —2.63+0.23 · n=30 3.23+0.17 · n=30 3.63+0.03 · n=30 3.90+0.10 · n=30 3.43+0.17 · n=30 3.53+0.40 · n=30 4.00+0.47 · n=30 3.90+0.57 · n=30 4.03+0.63 · n=30 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC —3.80+0.13 · n=30 5.20+0.13 · n=30 5.90+0.23 · n=30 4.37+0.50 · n=30 3.60+0.80 · n=30 3.80+0.73 · n=30 4.80+0.53 · n=30 4.70+0.17 · n=30 4.27+0.00 · n=30 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD —3.10-0.03 · n=30 3.57+0.17 · n=30 3.33+0.07 · n=30 3.27-0.00 · n=30 3.73+0.07 · n=30 4.10+0.43 · n=30 4.37+0.50 · n=30 3.60+0.60 · n=30 3.80+0.47 · n=30 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL —3.13+0.07 · n=30 2.93+0.07 · n=30 3.50+0.03 · n=30 3.70+0.10 · n=30 3.83+0.17 · n=30 3.53+0.33 · n=30 4.07+0.40 · n=30 4.43+0.43 · n=30 4.57+0.57 · n=30 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX —3.10+0.30 · n=30 4.50+0.30 · n=30 5.47+0.27 · n=30 5.60+0.07 · n=30 5.60-0.07 · n=30 5.23-0.23 · n=30 4.93+0.07 · n=30 4.87+0.20 · n=30 4.43+0.17 · n=30 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN —1.83-0.03 · n=30 2.27-0.33 · n=30 2.13-0.53 · n=30 2.83-0.70 · n=30 2.70-1.03 · n=30 2.63-1.17 · n=30 3.27-1.33 · n=30 3.30-1.63 · n=30 3.03-1.70 · n=30 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT —1.03+0.03 · n=30 1.40+0.07 · n=30 1.57-0.03 · n=30 1.67-0.20 · n=30 1.80-0.33 · n=30 2.00-0.53 · n=30 2.00-0.80 · n=30 2.30-1.10 · n=30 2.20-1.27 · n=30 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA —3.40+0.47 · n=30 5.67+0.73 · n=30 6.33+0.80 · n=30 5.97+0.77 · n=30 5.43+0.83 · n=30 5.17+0.50 · n=30 5.10+0.23 · n=30 5.73+0.47 · n=30 6.93+0.47 · n=30 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO —3.03+0.03 · n=30 4.03+0.10 · n=30 3.67+0.27 · n=30 4.20+0.20 · n=30 4.23-0.03 · n=30 3.87-0.00 · n=30 3.80-0.07 · n=30 3.80-0.27 · n=30 3.63-0.23 · n=30 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN —2.33+0.13 · n=30 2.83+0.23 · n=30 3.43+0.23 · n=30 3.60+0.33 · n=30 3.63+0.50 · n=30 3.53+0.73 · n=30 3.83+0.77 · n=30 4.20+0.80 · n=30 4.53+0.80 · n=30 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL —2.03-0.10 · n=30 2.20-0.13 · n=30 1.87-0.13 · n=30 2.10+0.03 · n=30 2.20+0.13 · n=30 2.37+0.10 · n=30 2.43+0.17 · n=30 2.40+0.20 · n=30 2.53+0.27 · n=30 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS —2.70+0.10 · n=30 3.17+0.30 · n=30 3.53+0.33 · n=30 3.27+0.27 · n=30 3.03+0.30 · n=30 2.93+0.40 · n=30 3.13+0.33 · n=30 2.73+0.53 · n=30 3.03+0.77 · n=30 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS —1.93-0.07 · n=28 2.64-0.00 · n=28 3.00-0.03 · n=29 3.17-0.07 · n=29 3.66-0.28 · n=29 4.24-0.45 · n=29 4.79-0.66 · n=29 5.21-0.72 · n=29 5.41-0.86 · n=29 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA —2.30-0.03 · n=30 3.33+0.07 · n=30 3.07-0.07 · n=30 3.43-0.23 · n=30 3.87-0.07 · n=30 4.17+0.10 · n=30 4.57+0.17 · n=30 4.73+0.13 · n=30 4.37+0.10 · n=30 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN —4.00+0.07 · n=30 4.77+0.17 · n=30 5.80+0.33 · n=30 5.80+0.53 · n=30 6.27+1.13 · n=30 5.90+1.43 · n=30 6.27+1.73 · n=30 6.23+1.77 · n=30 5.47+1.87 · n=30 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW —2.00+0.07 · n=30 2.50+0.17 · n=30 2.77+0.23 · n=30 3.07+0.27 · n=30 2.67+0.20 · n=30 2.77+0.10 · n=30 2.37-0.10 · n=30 2.17-0.23 · n=30 2.80-0.27 · n=30 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR —3.10+0.10 · n=30 4.33+0.27 · n=30 4.10+0.30 · n=30 3.10+0.30 · n=30 2.87+0.47 · n=30 3.67+0.47 · n=30 4.53+0.47 · n=30 5.10+0.30 · n=30 4.27+0.20 · n=30 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH —2.13+0.00 · n=30 2.67+0.13 · n=30 2.80+0.27 · n=30 2.73+0.13 · n=30 2.60+0.07 · n=30 2.53-0.07 · n=30 3.23-0.17 · n=30 3.03-0.30 · n=30 3.20-0.47 · n=30 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS —2.37-0.03 · n=30 3.90-0.10 · n=30 4.80-0.13 · n=30 5.47-0.20 · n=30 6.20-0.07 · n=30 6.57+0.17 · n=30 6.50+0.23 · n=30 6.63+0.43 · n=30 6.77+0.50 · n=30 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX —0.87-0.13 · n=30 1.20-0.33 · n=30 1.40-0.53 · n=30 1.40-0.73 · n=30 1.63-0.83 · n=30 1.93-0.87 · n=30 2.10-0.83 · n=30 2.10-0.90 · n=30 2.17-0.97 · n=30 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA —2.73+0.00 · n=30 2.33+0.13 · n=30 2.70+0.10 · n=30 3.23+0.10 · n=30 2.63+0.03 · n=30 3.20+0.00 · n=30 2.87+0.13 · n=30 3.20+0.20 · n=30 3.47+0.27 · n=30 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP —3.57-0.17 · n=30 4.93+0.07 · n=30 4.77+0.50 · n=30 4.23+0.77 · n=30 5.03+1.10 · n=30 6.20+1.33 · n=30 6.43+1.70 · n=30 6.03+2.03 · n=30 5.87+1.93 · n=30 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY —1.67-0.07 · n=30 2.17+0.03 · n=30 2.23+0.10 · n=30 2.17+0.30 · n=30 1.90+0.43 · n=30 2.20+0.53 · n=30 2.17+0.57 · n=30 2.60+0.47 · n=30 2.67+0.67 · n=30 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC —2.67+0.00 · n=30 3.60+0.07 · n=30 3.37+0.10 · n=30 2.53+0.13 · n=30 2.73+0.27 · n=30 3.70+0.30 · n=30 3.97+0.30 · n=30 3.93+0.20 · n=30 4.10+0.10 · n=30 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC —3.37+0.10 · n=30 4.27+0.33 · n=30 4.93+0.47 · n=30 4.70+0.37 · n=30 3.67+0.13 · n=30 4.03+0.17 · n=30 4.47-0.00 · n=30 5.23+0.03 · n=30 5.47-0.07 · n=30 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD —2.90+0.03 · n=30 3.17-0.03 · n=30 3.90-0.17 · n=30 3.30-0.17 · n=30 3.90-0.17 · n=30 4.57+0.23 · n=30 4.80+0.40 · n=30 4.40+0.47 · n=30 4.60+0.20 · n=30 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL —2.70+0.23 · n=30 3.47+0.47 · n=30 3.43+0.43 · n=30 2.90+0.43 · n=30 3.03+0.57 · n=30 3.57+0.57 · n=30 4.23+0.63 · n=30 4.40+0.60 · n=30 4.90+0.50 · n=30 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX —3.13+0.20 · n=30 4.73+0.33 · n=30 5.20+0.27 · n=30 5.53-0.13 · n=30 5.30-0.03 · n=30 5.37+0.03 · n=30 5.20+0.33 · n=30 5.57+0.63 · n=30 5.50+0.70 · n=30 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN —0.80-0.20 · n=30 1.03-0.37 · n=30 1.13-0.53 · n=30 1.23-0.63 · n=30 1.43-0.77 · n=30 1.70-0.77 · n=30 1.57-0.83 · n=30 1.67-0.80 · n=30 1.87-0.80 · n=30 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT —1.43-0.03 · n=30 1.57+0.10 · n=30 1.20+0.33 · n=30 1.37+0.30 · n=30 1.43+0.23 · n=30 1.50+0.30 · n=30 1.53+0.33 · n=30 1.60+0.40 · n=30 1.87+0.60 · n=30 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA —1.63+0.03 · n=30 1.93+0.00 · n=30 2.30-0.03 · n=30 1.93-0.07 · n=30 2.37-0.03 · n=30 2.37-0.03 · n=30 2.43-0.03 · n=30 2.30-0.10 · n=30 2.37-0.03 · n=30 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO —0.93+0.00 · n=30 1.03+0.03 · n=30 0.93+0.07 · n=30 1.30+0.10 · n=30 1.13+0.20 · n=30 1.03+0.23 · n=30 1.17+0.30 · n=30 1.07+0.40 · n=30 1.07+0.40 · n=30 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN —2.97+0.23 · n=30 3.93+0.53 · n=30 3.97+0.57 · n=30 3.10+0.57 · n=30 3.00+0.80 · n=30 3.83+0.77 · n=30 4.47+0.87 · n=30 5.23+0.70 · n=30 5.00+0.53 · n=30 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

truth · yesterday's observation

Steps every 24 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

Derived from NWS observations; public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences