KSAT — San Antonio Intl
29.5328, -98.4636 · 246 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLISAT
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 3.67-3.67 · n=29 | 3.54-3.54 · n=28 | 3.50-3.50 · n=27 | 3.42-3.42 · n=26 | 3.22-3.22 · n=24 | 3.13-3.12 · n=24 | 3.11-3.11 · n=23 | 3.02-3.02 · n=22 | 3.39-3.31 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 7.90-7.90 · n=2 | 8.04-8.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 6.57-6.57 · n=2 | 5.48-5.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 3.62-3.62 · n=2 | 2.87-2.87 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 3.72-3.72 · n=2 | 2.68-2.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.65-1.31 · n=29 | 1.65-1.31 · n=28 | 1.66-1.30 · n=27 | 1.31-0.58 · n=26 | 1.14-0.87 · n=25 | 1.26-0.42 · n=24 | 1.98-0.76 · n=23 | 1.76-0.23 · n=22 | 2.07-0.16 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 7.53-7.53 · n=2 | 7.95-7.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 6.63-6.63 · n=27 | 6.59-6.59 · n=26 | 6.58-6.58 · n=25 | 6.30-6.30 · n=25 | 6.02-6.02 · n=25 | 5.69-5.69 · n=24 | 5.85-5.85 · n=23 | 6.14-6.14 · n=22 | 6.16-6.16 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 3.68-3.68 · n=24 | 3.36-3.36 · n=22 | 2.99-2.99 · n=22 | 3.00-3.00 · n=21 | 2.85-2.85 · n=20 | 2.87-2.87 · n=19 | 2.29-2.15 · n=17 | 2.98-2.62 · n=17 | 2.92-2.51 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 4.07-4.07 · n=2 | 4.18-4.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 3.38-3.38 · n=2 | 3.37-3.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.92-0.08 · n=90 | 2.67-0.20 · n=90 | 2.97-0.37 · n=90 | 3.00-0.51 · n=90 | 3.02-0.64 · n=90 | 3.28-0.83 · n=90 | 3.42-1.02 · n=90 | 3.48-1.21 · n=90 | 3.41-1.39 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 1.64-1.22 · n=29 | 1.56-1.03 · n=28 | 1.70-1.00 · n=27 | 1.69-0.90 · n=26 | 1.65-0.80 · n=24 | 1.64-0.90 · n=24 | 1.63-0.75 · n=23 | 1.68-0.66 · n=22 | 1.60-0.70 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 1.54-0.31 · n=2 | 2.60-2.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 1.61-0.69 · n=2 | 2.59-2.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 1.21-0.31 · n=2 | 1.56-1.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 1.54-0.20 · n=2 | 1.48-1.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.88-0.42 · n=29 | 2.10-0.51 · n=28 | 2.15-0.76 · n=27 | 2.18-0.72 · n=26 | 2.06-0.69 · n=25 | 2.37-0.85 · n=24 | 2.13-0.67 · n=23 | 2.13-0.87 · n=22 | 2.46-0.73 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 1.40-0.02 · n=2 | 2.50-2.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 0.93-0.19 · n=27 | 0.88-0.23 · n=26 | 1.11+0.16 · n=25 | 1.11+0.54 · n=25 | 1.22+0.57 · n=25 | 1.23+0.63 · n=24 | 1.37+0.94 · n=23 | 1.46+0.96 · n=22 | 1.32+0.80 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 1.81+0.52 · n=24 | 2.32+0.89 · n=22 | 2.01+0.85 · n=22 | 2.21+1.22 · n=21 | 2.79+1.37 · n=20 | 2.51+1.32 · n=19 | 2.76+1.94 · n=17 | 2.91+2.25 · n=17 | 2.77+2.47 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 2.00+0.02 · n=2 | 2.05-2.05 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 1.98-1.98 · n=2 | 3.46-3.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.64-0.07 · n=90 | 2.12-0.10 · n=90 | 2.07-0.09 · n=90 | 2.00-0.16 · n=90 | 1.91-0.31 · n=90 | 2.19-0.43 · n=90 | 2.48-0.57 · n=90 | 2.78-0.62 · n=90 | 2.81-0.72 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences