Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

Model

GraphCast (GFS init)

graphcast_gfs

source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp GFS initGRAP_v100

Window: all available history
Init: 12Z
Interpolation: bilinear
Data through: 2026-08-30
Updated: 2026-08-31 07:25 UTC
Next update: 2026-08-31 11:00 UTC

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station	d0	d1	d2	d3	d4	d5	d6	d7	d8	d9
KATL	—	2.85−2.66 · n=35	2.92−2.39 · n=34	3.72−3.26 · n=33	4.43−3.93 · n=33	5.30−3.94 · n=33	6.00−3.15 · n=33	6.50−2.07 · n=33	6.36−1.64 · n=33	7.31+0.30 · n=33
KAUS	—	3.25−0.58 · n=36	3.46−0.98 · n=35	4.01−1.77 · n=34	4.61−1.81 · n=34	5.15−0.30 · n=34	6.27−0.02 · n=34	7.59+1.09 · n=34	7.88+2.00 · n=34	9.36+2.07 · n=34
KBOS	—	2.90−2.25 · n=33	3.22−2.38 · n=32	3.35−2.32 · n=32	3.78−2.13 · n=32	4.19−1.63 · n=32	5.04−1.72 · n=32	6.24−2.12 · n=32	7.20−0.90 · n=32	7.30+0.27 · n=32
KDCA	—	3.58−2.55 · n=35	3.51−2.37 · n=34	3.62−1.67 · n=33	3.92−1.21 · n=33	4.49−0.74 · n=33	5.26−0.18 · n=33	6.05+0.63 · n=33	6.87+1.52 · n=33	6.54+2.35 · n=33
KDEN	—	3.96−2.08 · n=35	4.38−2.87 · n=34	5.18−2.33 · n=34	5.96−1.25 · n=34	6.59−1.14 · n=34	8.56+0.70 · n=34	9.01+1.87 · n=34	9.29+1.78 · n=34	9.52+0.87 · n=34
KDFW	—	2.90−1.60 · n=36	3.72−2.74 · n=35	4.55−3.61 · n=34	5.09−3.17 · n=34	5.59−1.51 · n=34	6.08−0.91 · n=34	7.69+1.20 · n=34	8.84+2.27 · n=34	10.50+3.08 · n=34
KEWR	—	3.09−2.64 · n=35	3.32−2.69 · n=34	3.19−2.40 · n=32	3.83−1.95 · n=32	4.54−1.40 · n=32	5.26−1.07 · n=32	6.04−0.42 · n=32	6.72+0.60 · n=32	6.58+1.36 · n=32
KIAH	—	2.45−1.42 · n=36	2.75−1.92 · n=35	3.64−2.83 · n=34	4.17−3.13 · n=34	4.58−1.83 · n=34	5.44−1.60 · n=34	6.32−0.87 · n=34	6.77+0.14 · n=34	7.82+1.15 · n=34
KLAS	—	2.95−1.58 · n=35	2.80−1.41 · n=34	2.74−1.36 · n=34	2.74−1.16 · n=34	2.83−0.97 · n=34	3.09−0.99 · n=34	3.63−1.57 · n=34	4.30−1.96 · n=34	4.32−1.92 · n=34
KLAX	—	2.13−0.75 · n=35	2.60−1.42 · n=34	2.83−1.64 · n=34	3.17−1.95 · n=34	3.65−2.14 · n=34	3.59−2.18 · n=34	3.53−2.39 · n=34	4.41−2.60 · n=34	4.59−2.68 · n=34
KMIA	—	1.90−0.50 · n=36	2.29−1.14 · n=35	2.59−1.75 · n=34	3.26−2.42 · n=34	3.93−2.94 · n=34	4.33−2.64 · n=34	5.57−2.37 · n=34	6.19−1.95 · n=34	6.66−2.09 · n=34
KMSP	—	3.49−2.98 · n=36	3.89−3.32 · n=35	4.40−2.97 · n=34	4.54−2.09 · n=34	5.49−1.20 · n=34	5.86+0.94 · n=34	7.19+1.70 · n=34	8.89+2.12 · n=34	9.09+2.43 · n=34
KMSY	—	2.63−0.50 · n=36	2.67−0.58 · n=35	3.14−1.28 · n=34	3.62−1.97 · n=34	4.61−1.57 · n=34	5.78−1.35 · n=34	6.08−1.28 · n=34	6.60−0.39 · n=34	6.71+1.62 · n=34
KNYC	—	3.06−2.22 · n=35	3.38−2.21 · n=34	3.57−2.07 · n=33	3.99−1.74 · n=33	4.75−0.98 · n=33	5.43−0.64 · n=33	6.10+0.07 · n=33	6.90+1.07 · n=33	6.59+2.05 · n=33
KOKC	—	2.94−0.46 · n=35	3.47−1.21 · n=34	3.84−1.57 · n=33	4.72−1.07 · n=33	5.84+0.06 · n=33	6.91+0.61 · n=33	8.97+2.80 · n=33	10.66+4.23 · n=33	11.75+4.48 · n=33
KORD	—	2.76−1.98 · n=36	3.52−2.66 · n=35	3.88−2.88 · n=34	4.17−2.43 · n=34	4.96−1.20 · n=34	6.19+0.47 · n=34	6.93+2.02 · n=34	7.93+2.79 · n=34	8.15+2.63 · n=34
KPHL	—	3.58−3.02 · n=36	3.66−2.91 · n=35	3.67−2.37 · n=34	4.21−1.85 · n=34	4.50−1.35 · n=34	5.30−0.91 · n=34	6.22+0.16 · n=34	7.01+0.79 · n=34	6.43+1.72 · n=34
KPHX	—	3.20−3.12 · n=35	3.54−3.48 · n=34	3.72−3.59 · n=34	3.73−3.54 · n=34	3.65−3.28 · n=34	3.85−3.11 · n=34	4.11−3.52 · n=34	4.78−3.65 · n=34	5.40−4.14 · n=34
KSAN	—	2.99+0.17 · n=35	3.04−0.13 · n=34	3.22−0.33 · n=34	3.43−0.57 · n=34	3.74−0.75 · n=34	4.14−0.84 · n=34	4.11−1.16 · n=34	4.35−1.33 · n=34	4.42−1.42 · n=34
KSAT	—	2.84−1.54 · n=36	3.05−1.64 · n=35	3.67−2.44 · n=34	4.34−2.72 · n=34	4.68−1.32 · n=34	5.82−1.21 · n=34	7.00−0.28 · n=34	7.17+0.55 · n=34	8.53+0.65 · n=34
KSEA	—	2.12−1.49 · n=35	2.48−2.01 · n=34	2.71−2.32 · n=34	2.88−2.31 · n=34	3.11−1.98 · n=34	4.05−2.01 · n=34	5.19−2.46 · n=34	5.41−2.72 · n=34	5.21−2.79 · n=34
KSFO	—	2.18−1.04 · n=35	2.40−1.82 · n=34	2.67−2.30 · n=34	2.93−2.70 · n=34	3.03−2.83 · n=34	3.17−2.89 · n=34	3.22−2.81 · n=34	3.27−2.88 · n=34	3.49−3.03 · n=34
KTTN	—	2.31−0.06 · n=35	2.74−0.06 · n=33	2.95+0.40 · n=32	3.88+1.10 · n=32	4.55+1.70 · n=32	5.42+1.93 · n=32	6.76+2.98 · n=32	7.65+3.72 · n=32	7.94+4.49 · n=32

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station	d0	d1	d2	d3	d4	d5	d6	d7	d8	d9
KATL	—	2.61−2.42 · n=35	2.85−2.12 · n=34	3.89−3.17 · n=33	4.62−3.64 · n=33	5.29−3.54 · n=33	5.75−2.56 · n=33	7.39−1.00 · n=33	6.53−0.89 · n=33	7.57+0.65 · n=33
KAUS	—	3.89−3.63 · n=36	4.39−3.76 · n=35	4.88−4.65 · n=34	5.03−4.36 · n=34	5.11−3.39 · n=34	5.63−2.99 · n=34	7.55−1.61 · n=34	8.27−0.76 · n=34	9.55−1.17 · n=34
KBOS	—	1.65−1.16 · n=33	2.04−0.96 · n=32	2.17−0.88 · n=32	2.62−0.81 · n=32	3.49−0.36 · n=32	4.24−0.42 · n=32	5.59−0.55 · n=32	5.51+1.09 · n=32	7.71+2.37 · n=32
KDCA	—	2.39−1.38 · n=35	2.48−0.84 · n=34	3.15−0.25 · n=33	3.46−0.47 · n=33	4.50+0.22 · n=33	5.21+0.40 · n=33	6.18+1.50 · n=33	7.33+2.86 · n=33	7.88+3.60 · n=33
KDEN	—	4.11−2.93 · n=35	4.21−3.67 · n=34	4.79−3.18 · n=34	5.32−1.87 · n=34	6.12−2.30 · n=34	8.57+0.42 · n=34	8.79+1.64 · n=34	9.51+1.27 · n=34	9.44−0.15 · n=34
KDFW	—	3.57−2.99 · n=36	4.73−4.40 · n=35	5.84−5.49 · n=34	5.29−4.49 · n=34	5.92−2.82 · n=34	6.51−2.13 · n=34	7.63−0.53 · n=34	9.14+0.84 · n=34	10.94+1.40 · n=34
KEWR	—	2.40−1.93 · n=35	2.74−1.68 · n=34	2.70−1.71 · n=32	2.48−1.54 · n=32	3.27−0.57 · n=32	4.18−0.31 · n=32	5.52+0.26 · n=32	6.39+1.98 · n=32	7.26+2.34 · n=32
KIAH	—	2.70−2.31 · n=36	3.34−3.10 · n=35	4.15−3.96 · n=34	4.52−3.71 · n=34	4.81−2.34 · n=34	5.10−2.01 · n=34	6.25−1.17 · n=34	7.14−0.14 · n=34	8.14+0.80 · n=34
KLAS	—	3.65−3.65 · n=35	3.43−3.43 · n=34	3.44−3.35 · n=34	3.61−3.19 · n=34	3.65−3.07 · n=34	3.83−3.15 · n=34	4.46−3.88 · n=34	5.33−4.10 · n=34	4.69−3.92 · n=34
KLAX	—	1.83−0.69 · n=35	2.24−1.18 · n=34	2.61−1.17 · n=34	3.03−1.59 · n=34	3.64−1.83 · n=34	3.38−1.96 · n=34	3.33−2.11 · n=34	5.08−2.22 · n=34	5.17−2.34 · n=34
KMIA	—	2.22−1.23 · n=36	2.42−1.18 · n=35	2.29−1.10 · n=34	2.84−1.59 · n=34	3.18−2.00 · n=34	3.81−1.54 · n=34	5.37−1.98 · n=34	5.39−0.97 · n=34	4.91−1.18 · n=34
KMSP	—	3.52−2.89 · n=36	3.70−3.36 · n=35	3.81−2.95 · n=34	3.85−1.97 · n=34	4.85−1.36 · n=34	4.91+0.86 · n=34	6.23+2.05 · n=34	7.85+1.77 · n=34	8.19+2.32 · n=34
KMSY	—	2.78−1.80 · n=36	2.95−1.92 · n=35	3.24−2.51 · n=34	4.00−3.06 · n=34	5.48−2.38 · n=34	6.11−2.14 · n=34	6.59−1.41 · n=34	6.98−0.49 · n=34	7.10+0.88 · n=34
KNYC	—	1.50−0.82 · n=35	2.17−0.63 · n=34	2.26−0.66 · n=33	2.45−0.68 · n=33	3.44+0.40 · n=33	4.18+0.68 · n=33	5.18+1.15 · n=33	5.72+2.82 · n=33	6.92+3.57 · n=33
KOKC	—	2.84−2.42 · n=35	3.31−3.07 · n=34	3.58−3.33 · n=33	3.97−2.87 · n=33	5.38−1.71 · n=33	7.02−0.61 · n=33	8.67+1.61 · n=33	10.88+2.60 · n=33	11.58+2.91 · n=33
KORD	—	2.73−1.97 · n=36	3.34−2.76 · n=35	3.74−3.00 · n=34	4.06−2.82 · n=34	4.62−1.53 · n=34	5.72−0.08 · n=34	6.30+1.23 · n=34	6.66+1.35 · n=34	6.39+1.98 · n=34
KPHL	—	2.29−1.85 · n=36	2.46−1.48 · n=35	2.57−1.13 · n=34	3.18−1.01 · n=34	3.66−0.28 · n=34	4.58−0.11 · n=34	5.89+1.35 · n=34	7.04+2.71 · n=34	7.61+3.42 · n=34
KPHX	—	3.86−3.79 · n=35	3.84−3.75 · n=34	4.05−3.69 · n=34	3.82−3.49 · n=34	3.82−3.30 · n=34	4.00−3.18 · n=34	5.05−4.23 · n=34	5.72−4.23 · n=34	6.22−4.79 · n=34
KSAN	—	3.31−3.30 · n=35	3.62−3.58 · n=34	3.77−3.67 · n=34	4.29−4.03 · n=34	4.51−4.34 · n=34	4.98−4.43 · n=34	5.02−4.74 · n=34	5.46−4.88 · n=34	5.41−4.96 · n=34
KSAT	—	3.92−3.92 · n=36	4.22−3.93 · n=35	4.88−4.80 · n=34	5.18−4.79 · n=34	4.90−3.76 · n=34	5.65−3.49 · n=34	7.48−2.41 · n=34	7.44−1.58 · n=34	8.75−1.88 · n=34
KSEA	—	2.60−2.27 · n=35	2.86−2.55 · n=34	3.12−2.83 · n=34	3.32−2.92 · n=34	3.06−2.62 · n=34	3.53−2.91 · n=34	4.43−3.53 · n=34	5.00−3.90 · n=34	5.06−4.08 · n=34
KSFO	—	2.71−1.85 · n=35	3.08−2.54 · n=34	3.66−3.00 · n=34	3.92−3.48 · n=34	3.93−3.55 · n=34	4.21−3.86 · n=34	4.41−4.03 · n=34	4.40−3.88 · n=34	4.52−3.88 · n=34
KTTN	—	2.10+1.03 · n=35	2.45+1.23 · n=33	2.59+1.29 · n=32	3.33+1.55 · n=32	3.87+2.42 · n=32	5.11+2.66 · n=32	6.55+3.79 · n=32	8.03+5.37 · n=32	8.84+5.67 · n=32

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station	d0	d1	d2	d3	d4	d5	d6	d7	d8	d9
KATL	—	1.99−1.73 · n=35	2.02−1.59 · n=34	2.81−2.41 · n=33	3.56−3.18 · n=33	4.62−3.44 · n=33	5.20−2.37 · n=33	5.43−1.58 · n=33	5.36−1.23 · n=33	6.31+1.10 · n=33
KAUS	—	4.03+2.86 · n=36	3.71+2.34 · n=35	3.66+1.77 · n=34	4.78+1.28 · n=34	5.48+2.71 · n=34	6.94+3.22 · n=34	8.02+4.45 · n=34	8.18+5.47 · n=34	9.29+5.97 · n=34
KBOS	—	3.13−2.73 · n=33	3.66−3.06 · n=32	3.33−2.77 · n=32	3.69−2.50 · n=32	4.29−1.82 · n=32	4.60−2.48 · n=32	6.12−2.82 · n=32	7.49−2.42 · n=32	7.00−0.99 · n=32
KDCA	—	3.69−2.71 · n=35	3.56−2.51 · n=34	3.26−1.51 · n=33	3.32−0.95 · n=33	3.86−0.54 · n=33	4.97+0.30 · n=33	5.73+1.02 · n=33	6.28+1.04 · n=33	5.50+2.26 · n=33
KDEN	—	3.64−0.01 · n=35	3.92−0.83 · n=34	4.38−0.82 · n=34	4.99+0.50 · n=34	5.05+0.45 · n=34	6.86+1.71 · n=34	8.03+3.28 · n=34	8.56+3.36 · n=34	8.47+2.40 · n=34
KDFW	—	2.63+0.29 · n=36	2.79−1.07 · n=35	3.33−1.71 · n=34	4.51−1.89 · n=34	4.74−0.18 · n=34	4.78+0.24 · n=34	6.90+2.71 · n=34	7.74+3.56 · n=34	10.05+5.02 · n=34
KEWR	—	2.87−2.64 · n=35	2.95−2.69 · n=34	2.86−2.25 · n=32	3.73−1.65 · n=32	4.40−1.37 · n=32	5.20−1.07 · n=32	6.01−0.30 · n=32	6.81+0.21 · n=32	5.81+1.44 · n=32
KIAH	—	1.92−0.16 · n=36	1.98−0.48 · n=35	3.06−1.44 · n=34	3.54−2.07 · n=34	4.12−1.23 · n=34	5.32−0.79 · n=34	5.92+0.01 · n=34	6.12+1.50 · n=34	7.28+2.64 · n=34
KLAS	—	2.89+0.38 · n=35	2.85+0.54 · n=34	2.66+0.57 · n=34	2.41+0.69 · n=34	2.50+0.89 · n=34	3.20+0.94 · n=34	3.46+0.48 · n=34	3.75−0.14 · n=34	4.23−0.07 · n=34
KLAX	—	2.04+0.63 · n=35	2.20−0.27 · n=34	2.46−0.70 · n=34	2.43−0.85 · n=34	2.82−0.91 · n=34	2.97−0.74 · n=34	3.03−1.09 · n=34	3.54−1.54 · n=34	3.51−1.37 · n=34
KMIA	—	1.70+0.93 · n=36	1.86−0.08 · n=35	2.28−1.15 · n=34	2.98−1.92 · n=34	3.74−2.38 · n=34	4.16−2.19 · n=34	5.60−1.65 · n=34	6.93−1.27 · n=34	7.50−1.67 · n=34
KMSP	—	3.63−3.10 · n=36	4.34−3.55 · n=35	4.78−3.09 · n=34	4.86−2.14 · n=34	5.59−1.07 · n=34	6.20+1.01 · n=34	7.57+1.53 · n=34	9.94+2.18 · n=34	9.55+2.51 · n=34
KMSY	—	2.61+1.35 · n=36	2.61+1.26 · n=35	3.06+0.67 · n=34	2.93+0.06 · n=34	3.25+0.43 · n=34	4.88+0.73 · n=34	5.33+0.26 · n=34	6.01+1.18 · n=34	6.18+3.36 · n=34
KNYC	—	3.63−2.95 · n=35	3.72−3.00 · n=34	4.10−2.71 · n=33	4.53−2.42 · n=33	5.13−1.70 · n=33	5.84−1.47 · n=33	6.42−0.54 · n=33	7.17−0.04 · n=33	5.90+1.39 · n=33
KOKC	—	3.54+1.69 · n=35	3.98+0.74 · n=34	4.34+0.23 · n=33	5.48+0.61 · n=33	6.30+2.03 · n=33	5.45+2.16 · n=33	8.13+3.95 · n=33	10.00+5.86 · n=33	11.19+6.46 · n=33
KORD	—	2.36−1.90 · n=36	3.35−2.81 · n=35	3.43−2.79 · n=34	3.99−2.19 · n=34	4.99−1.17 · n=34	5.76+0.58 · n=34	6.34+2.21 · n=34	8.10+3.94 · n=34	8.84+3.03 · n=34
KPHL	—	3.63−3.34 · n=36	3.61−3.20 · n=35	3.57−2.57 · n=34	3.87−1.83 · n=34	4.25−1.49 · n=34	5.07−1.04 · n=34	6.09+0.13 · n=34	6.71+0.08 · n=34	5.15+1.31 · n=34
KPHX	—	3.24−3.04 · n=35	4.01−4.00 · n=34	4.26−4.26 · n=34	4.34−4.32 · n=34	4.16−4.02 · n=34	4.55−3.89 · n=34	3.90−3.63 · n=34	4.65−3.86 · n=34	5.36−4.18 · n=34
KSAN	—	4.34+3.97 · n=35	3.99+3.56 · n=34	4.14+3.38 · n=34	4.05+3.39 · n=34	4.01+3.42 · n=34	4.20+3.46 · n=34	4.12+3.11 · n=34	4.15+2.90 · n=34	4.45+2.81 · n=34
KSAT	—	2.19+0.23 · n=36	2.10+0.24 · n=35	2.66−0.42 · n=34	3.95−0.81 · n=34	4.22+0.59 · n=34	5.93+0.96 · n=34	6.37+1.86 · n=34	6.42+2.67 · n=34	7.58+3.03 · n=34
KSEA	—	1.56−0.57 · n=35	1.86−1.20 · n=34	2.10−1.59 · n=34	2.36−1.58 · n=34	3.01−1.51 · n=34	4.03−1.14 · n=34	5.81−1.46 · n=34	5.91−1.63 · n=34	5.24−1.67 · n=34
KSFO	—	2.27+0.32 · n=35	2.07−0.62 · n=34	1.80−1.06 · n=34	1.84−1.51 · n=34	1.94−1.62 · n=34	2.18−1.59 · n=34	2.09−1.30 · n=34	2.29−1.48 · n=34	2.82−1.89 · n=34
KTTN	—	2.33+0.02 · n=35	2.64+0.07 · n=33	2.83+0.66 · n=32	3.84+1.75 · n=32	4.63+2.16 · n=32	5.43+2.20 · n=32	6.83+3.49 · n=32	7.82+3.46 · n=32	7.37+4.60 · n=32

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station	d0	d1	d2	d3	d4	d5	d6	d7	d8	d9
KATL	—	5.80−5.80 · n=36	5.67−5.64 · n=35	6.99−6.82 · n=34	7.50−7.25 · n=34	7.85−7.25 · n=34	7.89−6.36 · n=34	8.24−4.89 · n=34	7.50−5.02 · n=34	8.52−3.68 · n=34
KAUS	—	8.00−8.00 · n=36	8.52−8.14 · n=35	9.15−9.15 · n=34	8.87−8.77 · n=34	8.61−7.80 · n=34	8.66−7.25 · n=34	8.87−5.79 · n=34	9.29−4.97 · n=34	11.56−5.40 · n=34
KBOS	—	3.38−3.38 · n=36	3.57−3.30 · n=35	3.57−3.09 · n=34	3.42−2.98 · n=34	3.66−2.56 · n=34	4.72−2.36 · n=34	6.26−2.41 · n=34	5.74−0.77 · n=34	7.13+0.28 · n=34
KDCA	—	3.98−3.73 · n=36	3.80−3.07 · n=35	3.98−2.38 · n=34	4.48−2.72 · n=34	4.86−1.92 · n=34	5.53−1.82 · n=34	6.38−0.69 · n=34	6.81+0.46 · n=34	7.35+1.37 · n=34
KDEN	—	7.57−7.57 · n=36	8.19−8.19 · n=35	8.20−7.83 · n=34	7.83−6.54 · n=34	8.82−6.98 · n=34	10.02−4.41 · n=34	10.28−3.30 · n=34	10.55−3.70 · n=34	10.67−5.12 · n=34
KDFW	—	6.99−6.96 · n=36	8.39−8.32 · n=35	9.53−9.46 · n=34	8.76−8.49 · n=34	8.90−6.82 · n=34	9.23−6.10 · n=34	9.70−4.50 · n=34	10.46−3.04 · n=34	12.16−2.54 · n=34
KEWR	—	3.90−3.90 · n=36	3.88−3.69 · n=35	3.89−3.77 · n=34	3.72−3.54 · n=34	3.82−2.66 · n=34	4.52−2.35 · n=34	5.27−1.72 · n=34	5.98−0.14 · n=34	6.45+0.60 · n=34
KIAH	—	6.36−6.34 · n=36	7.10−7.10 · n=35	8.14−8.14 · n=34	8.23−7.89 · n=34	7.66−6.52 · n=34	7.70−6.09 · n=34	7.91−5.20 · n=34	8.14−4.23 · n=34	9.31−3.35 · n=34
KLAS	—	4.70−4.70 · n=36	4.58−4.58 · n=35	4.42−4.38 · n=34	4.22−4.16 · n=34	4.40−4.04 · n=34	4.57−4.12 · n=34	5.05−4.85 · n=34	6.07−5.04 · n=34	5.49−4.89 · n=34
KLAX	—	5.40−5.40 · n=36	6.10−6.10 · n=35	6.25−6.17 · n=34	6.98−6.71 · n=34	7.30−7.09 · n=34	7.55−7.55 · n=34	7.84−7.69 · n=34	8.24−7.84 · n=34	8.38−7.96 · n=34
KMIA	—	3.62−3.34 · n=36	3.75−3.38 · n=35	3.90−3.42 · n=34	4.26−3.94 · n=34	4.66−4.29 · n=34	4.73−3.86 · n=34	5.85−4.28 · n=34	5.74−3.29 · n=34	5.75−3.62 · n=34
KMSP	—	5.19−5.03 · n=36	5.48−5.45 · n=35	5.33−5.07 · n=34	4.80−4.03 · n=34	5.99−3.47 · n=34	5.71−1.29 · n=34	6.35−0.01 · n=34	8.33−0.32 · n=34	9.04+0.18 · n=34
KMSY	—	5.07−5.03 · n=36	5.41−5.23 · n=35	6.23−6.01 · n=34	6.77−6.68 · n=34	7.02−6.05 · n=34	7.65−5.91 · n=34	7.82−5.12 · n=34	7.66−4.16 · n=34	7.07−2.79 · n=34
KNYC	—	2.70−2.66 · n=36	2.93−2.55 · n=35	3.11−2.70 · n=34	3.08−2.52 · n=34	3.52−1.55 · n=34	4.39−1.22 · n=34	5.34−0.86 · n=34	5.65+0.59 · n=34	6.66+1.40 · n=34
KOKC	—	7.29−7.21 · n=36	7.93−7.89 · n=35	8.23−8.23 · n=34	8.40−7.93 · n=34	8.49−6.61 · n=34	9.12−5.56 · n=34	10.28−3.32 · n=34	11.74−2.46 · n=34	12.59−2.06 · n=34
KORD	—	4.36−4.00 · n=36	5.02−4.73 · n=35	5.46−5.03 · n=34	5.50−4.85 · n=34	5.59−3.53 · n=34	6.43−2.11 · n=34	7.33−0.74 · n=34	7.14−0.56 · n=34	7.22−0.08 · n=34
KPHL	—	3.67−3.54 · n=36	3.43−3.16 · n=35	3.38−2.84 · n=34	3.98−2.78 · n=34	4.12−2.04 · n=34	4.92−1.93 · n=34	5.80−0.56 · n=34	6.44+0.83 · n=34	7.25+1.63 · n=34
KPHX	—	5.66−5.66 · n=36	5.61−5.61 · n=35	5.57−5.39 · n=34	5.21−5.20 · n=34	5.24−5.06 · n=34	5.19−4.97 · n=34	6.36−5.99 · n=34	6.90−6.03 · n=34	7.37−6.62 · n=34
KSAN	—	6.82−6.82 · n=36	7.19−7.19 · n=35	7.31−7.31 · n=34	7.70−7.70 · n=34	8.19−8.19 · n=34	8.49−8.49 · n=34	8.80−8.80 · n=34	8.97−8.88 · n=34	9.22−9.05 · n=34
KSAT	—	7.51−7.51 · n=36	7.77−7.42 · n=35	8.42−8.42 · n=34	8.38−8.38 · n=34	7.84−7.35 · n=34	7.89−6.99 · n=34	8.69−5.82 · n=34	8.42−4.99 · n=34	10.21−5.29 · n=34
KSEA	—	3.97−3.90 · n=36	4.19−4.15 · n=35	4.43−4.35 · n=34	4.52−4.38 · n=34	4.23−4.14 · n=34	4.50−4.42 · n=34	5.47−5.04 · n=34	6.06−5.45 · n=34	5.86−5.57 · n=34
KSFO	—	3.71−3.43 · n=36	4.30−4.12 · n=35	4.78−4.53 · n=34	5.20−4.98 · n=34	5.36−5.23 · n=34	5.55−5.51 · n=34	5.78−5.67 · n=34	5.78−5.53 · n=34	5.67−5.56 · n=34
KTTN	—	1.71−0.72 · n=36	2.09−0.38 · n=35	2.10−0.24 · n=34	2.96−0.05 · n=34	3.40+0.80 · n=34	4.53+0.94 · n=34	5.71+2.03 · n=34	6.91+3.60 · n=34	7.97+4.15 · n=34

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Station	d0	d1	d2	d3	d4	d5	d6	d7	d8	d9
KATL	—	2.13+0.55 · n=36	2.11+0.60 · n=35	2.32−0.29 · n=34	2.74−0.99 · n=34	4.11−1.11 · n=34	4.80−0.21 · n=34	5.55+0.28 · n=34	5.47+0.61 · n=34	6.37+3.14 · n=34
KAUS	—	7.96+7.63 · n=36	7.63+7.37 · n=35	6.80+6.57 · n=34	6.67+6.13 · n=34	7.94+7.59 · n=34	8.89+7.66 · n=34	10.09+8.83 · n=34	10.70+9.85 · n=34	12.00+10.30 · n=34
KBOS	—	2.88−0.85 · n=36	2.96−1.22 · n=35	2.91−0.81 · n=34	3.67−0.36 · n=34	4.17+0.32 · n=34	4.25−0.38 · n=34	5.29−0.49 · n=34	7.10−0.18 · n=34	6.62+0.89 · n=34
KDCA	—	3.14−1.00 · n=36	3.08−0.83 · n=35	3.08+0.18 · n=34	3.17+0.74 · n=34	3.42+1.15 · n=34	4.91+1.76 · n=34	5.36+2.56 · n=34	6.70+2.54 · n=34	6.14+4.08 · n=34
KDEN	—	5.06+4.73 · n=36	4.78+4.08 · n=35	5.19+4.15 · n=34	6.01+5.41 · n=34	6.04+5.39 · n=34	7.51+6.47 · n=34	8.54+7.96 · n=34	10.17+8.15 · n=34	10.11+7.40 · n=34
KDFW	—	4.63+3.48 · n=36	4.55+2.18 · n=35	4.50+1.64 · n=34	5.36+1.52 · n=34	5.48+3.17 · n=34	5.76+3.39 · n=34	8.20+6.12 · n=34	8.84+6.71 · n=34	11.22+8.14 · n=34
KEWR	—	2.12−0.01 · n=36	2.21−0.03 · n=35	2.59+0.38 · n=34	3.39+0.98 · n=34	3.64+1.27 · n=34	4.56+1.49 · n=34	5.22+2.52 · n=34	7.04+2.89 · n=34	6.66+4.21 · n=34
KIAH	—	2.94+2.09 · n=36	3.29+1.94 · n=35	3.22+0.76 · n=34	3.79+0.14 · n=34	4.45+0.86 · n=34	5.58+1.27 · n=34	5.84+2.07 · n=34	6.62+3.67 · n=34	8.16+4.73 · n=34
KLAS	—	3.67+2.32 · n=36	3.53+2.47 · n=35	3.26+2.77 · n=34	3.25+2.93 · n=34	3.65+3.15 · n=34	3.95+3.20 · n=34	4.04+2.86 · n=34	4.12+2.27 · n=34	4.67+2.25 · n=34
KLAX	—	4.00+3.71 · n=36	3.34+2.95 · n=35	3.21+2.74 · n=34	3.34+2.60 · n=34	3.25+2.59 · n=34	3.40+2.76 · n=34	3.50+2.38 · n=34	3.93+1.87 · n=34	3.85+1.80 · n=34
KMIA	—	3.43+3.22 · n=36	3.10+2.37 · n=35	2.82+1.35 · n=34	3.23+0.55 · n=34	4.19+0.03 · n=34	4.71+0.25 · n=34	5.58+0.71 · n=34	7.34+1.11 · n=34	6.80+0.66 · n=34
KMSP	—	3.45−0.63 · n=36	4.26−1.12 · n=35	5.35−0.36 · n=34	5.59+0.51 · n=34	5.92+1.49 · n=34	6.95+3.48 · n=34	8.03+4.12 · n=34	10.47+4.80 · n=34	10.41+5.07 · n=34
KMSY	—	4.45+4.13 · n=36	4.36+4.03 · n=35	4.06+3.23 · n=34	3.84+2.74 · n=34	4.31+3.19 · n=34	5.78+3.52 · n=34	5.61+3.05 · n=34	6.53+3.95 · n=34	7.51+6.24 · n=34
KNYC	—	3.49−1.51 · n=36	3.70−1.59 · n=35	4.19−1.16 · n=34	4.77−0.60 · n=34	4.71−0.09 · n=34	5.78+0.21 · n=34	5.86+1.04 · n=34	7.31+1.28 · n=34	6.46+2.78 · n=34
KOKC	—	6.19+5.78 · n=36	5.53+4.74 · n=35	5.91+4.48 · n=34	6.93+4.86 · n=34	8.49+6.28 · n=34	8.23+6.61 · n=34	10.20+8.50 · n=34	12.38+9.86 · n=34	13.47+10.25 · n=34
KORD	—	2.31−0.01 · n=36	2.84−0.89 · n=35	3.49−0.56 · n=34	4.04−0.04 · n=34	4.94+0.95 · n=34	6.37+2.69 · n=34	7.05+4.45 · n=34	8.96+6.11 · n=34	9.83+5.17 · n=34
KPHL	—	3.09−1.26 · n=36	3.12−1.09 · n=35	3.15−0.42 · n=34	3.51+0.35 · n=34	3.76+0.60 · n=34	4.69+0.99 · n=34	5.44+2.16 · n=34	6.91+2.14 · n=34	6.22+3.43 · n=34
KPHX	—	1.94−0.55 · n=36	2.17−1.40 · n=35	2.41−1.41 · n=34	2.61−1.46 · n=34	2.55−1.20 · n=34	2.77−1.01 · n=34	2.73−0.74 · n=34	3.18−1.06 · n=34	4.27−1.42 · n=34
KSAN	—	6.66+6.29 · n=36	6.40+6.02 · n=35	6.42+6.12 · n=34	6.40+6.10 · n=34	6.43+6.13 · n=34	6.58+6.20 · n=34	6.45+5.85 · n=34	6.29+5.55 · n=34	6.36+5.40 · n=34
KSAT	—	3.78+3.31 · n=36	3.72+3.44 · n=35	3.08+2.73 · n=34	3.83+2.31 · n=34	5.02+3.56 · n=34	6.21+3.73 · n=34	7.10+4.62 · n=34	7.73+5.34 · n=34	8.99+5.71 · n=34
KSEA	—	1.92+1.47 · n=36	1.78+0.85 · n=35	1.91+0.50 · n=34	2.35+0.59 · n=34	3.01+0.69 · n=34	4.08+1.16 · n=34	5.68+1.04 · n=34	5.68+0.87 · n=34	5.03+0.77 · n=34
KSFO	—	3.01+2.73 · n=36	2.45+1.85 · n=35	1.98+1.47 · n=34	1.62+1.05 · n=34	1.79+0.97 · n=34	1.94+0.97 · n=34	2.04+1.28 · n=34	2.46+1.02 · n=34	2.31+0.64 · n=34
KTTN	—	3.35+2.14 · n=36	3.37+2.32 · n=35	3.75+2.93 · n=34	4.71+3.69 · n=34	5.04+4.01 · n=34	5.71+4.23 · n=34	6.86+5.57 · n=34	8.85+5.46 · n=34	8.68+6.67 · n=34

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · GRAP · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.