GraphCast (GFS init) (graphcast_gfs)
source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 4.97-4.97 · n=2 | 6.04-6.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 8.66-8.66 · n=2 | 10.01-10.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 4.08-4.08 · n=2 | 6.29-6.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 5.03-5.03 · n=2 | 5.08-5.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 4.72-4.72 · n=2 | 2.76-2.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 6.14-6.14 · n=2 | 6.53-6.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 3.95-3.95 · n=2 | 5.26-5.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 6.09-6.09 · n=2 | 7.16-7.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 6.51-6.51 · n=2 | 8.51-8.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 5.84-5.84 · n=2 | 5.33-5.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 6.20-6.20 · n=2 | 5.95-5.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 8.47-8.47 · n=2 | 8.96-8.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 5.90-5.90 · n=2 | 4.62-4.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.25-1.25 · n=2 | 2.96-2.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 8.65-8.65 · n=2 | 9.34-9.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 3.06-3.06 · n=2 | 6.15-6.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 4.53-4.53 · n=2 | 6.53-6.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 12.22-12.22 · n=2 | 12.91-12.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 6.30-6.30 · n=2 | 4.23-4.23 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 7.53-7.53 · n=2 | 7.95-7.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 7.58-7.58 · n=2 | 4.67-4.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 6.10-6.10 · n=2 | 5.04-5.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 0.91-0.91 · n=2 | 3.55-3.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 0.97-0.97 · n=2 | 0.53-0.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 5.54+5.54 · n=2 | 3.83+3.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 2.55-2.55 · n=2 | 4.71-4.71 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 1.20-0.34 · n=2 | 0.11+0.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 5.47+5.47 · n=2 | 3.15+3.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 1.67+1.67 · n=2 | 0.01+0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 2.48+2.48 · n=2 | 2.63+2.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 1.06+1.06 · n=2 | 0.27+0.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 7.16-7.16 · n=2 | 8.06-8.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 1.78-1.78 · n=2 | 2.46-2.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 2.92+2.92 · n=2 | 0.56-0.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 1.69+0.46 · n=2 | 0.84-0.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 2.50-0.38 · n=2 | 2.72-2.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 0.97+0.97 · n=2 | 0.23+0.23 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 5.31+5.31 · n=2 | 3.43+3.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 1.87+1.87 · n=2 | 0.32+0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 1.38+1.38 · n=2 | 3.25+3.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 6.51-6.51 · n=2 | 8.09-8.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 1.23-1.23 · n=2 | 2.39-2.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 1.40-0.02 · n=2 | 2.50-2.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 0.33+0.05 · n=2 | 0.29-0.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 0.47-0.46 · n=2 | 1.25-1.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 6.37+6.37 · n=2 | 8.45+8.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · GRAP · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences