CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

GraphCast (GFS init)

graphcast_gfs

source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp GFS initGRAP_v100
Window
the last 365 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.90−2.42 · n=2143.23−2.80 · n=2143.42−3.00 · n=2133.74−3.16 · n=2133.96−3.19 · n=2134.48−3.22 · n=2124.97−3.12 · n=2115.52−2.94 · n=2115.84−2.68 · n=2106.14−2.32 · n=209KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS3.17−0.63 · n=2143.37−1.10 · n=2143.57−1.45 · n=2133.84−1.72 · n=2134.13−1.75 · n=2134.44−1.68 · n=2125.12−1.60 · n=2105.79−1.44 · n=2116.11−1.16 · n=2106.53−1.71 · n=209KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS3.05−2.26 · n=2043.01−2.17 · n=2023.14−2.11 · n=2043.37−1.85 · n=2033.77−1.65 · n=2024.51−1.84 · n=2035.27−1.53 · n=1995.80−1.16 · n=2006.22−1.12 · n=2006.75−0.92 · n=197KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA3.36−2.77 · n=2143.42−2.63 · n=2143.55−2.48 · n=2133.77−2.14 · n=2134.05−2.15 · n=2134.58−2.25 · n=2125.29−1.90 · n=2115.80−1.47 · n=2116.21−1.47 · n=2106.82−1.00 · n=209KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN3.47−1.29 · n=2154.01−2.20 · n=2144.43−2.56 · n=2154.92−2.44 · n=2145.18−2.25 · n=2135.57−1.99 · n=2136.67−1.80 · n=2137.31−1.69 · n=2128.21−2.69 · n=209—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW2.37−1.23 · n=2123.06−2.29 · n=2123.58−2.81 · n=2104.07−3.22 · n=2104.65−3.38 · n=2115.01−3.23 · n=2095.53−2.95 · n=2086.69−2.64 · n=2087.03−2.50 · n=2077.67−3.23 · n=208KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR3.30−2.78 · n=2133.55−3.06 · n=2133.78−3.13 · n=2123.93−3.01 · n=2124.29−2.86 · n=2124.85−2.94 · n=2115.49−2.82 · n=2106.00−2.27 · n=2106.16−2.21 · n=2097.06−1.92 · n=208KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.15−0.52 · n=2152.46−1.39 · n=2152.75−1.64 · n=2143.04−1.90 · n=2143.30−2.00 · n=2143.72−2.06 · n=2134.27−2.05 · n=2124.63−1.75 · n=2125.09−1.28 · n=2115.38−1.61 · n=210KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS5.59−5.34 · n=2146.19−6.04 · n=2146.16−5.99 · n=2156.12−5.89 · n=2145.92−5.65 · n=2136.06−5.59 · n=2136.45−5.48 · n=2136.62−5.57 · n=2117.06−5.82 · n=209—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX2.18−1.48 · n=2152.49−1.93 · n=2142.63−2.09 · n=2142.77−2.14 · n=2132.96−2.15 · n=2123.12−2.16 · n=2123.51−2.22 · n=2133.88−2.60 · n=2114.15−2.95 · n=210—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA1.67+0.08 · n=2131.78−0.75 · n=2111.93−0.95 · n=2112.15−1.30 · n=2122.33−1.42 · n=2122.52−1.45 · n=2092.72−1.50 · n=2103.06−1.42 · n=2093.23−1.24 · n=2083.45−1.06 · n=206KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP2.81−2.16 · n=2163.44−2.77 · n=2163.76−2.82 · n=2154.17−3.04 · n=2144.52−2.79 · n=2144.98−2.00 · n=2145.69−1.87 · n=2136.73−1.65 · n=2127.39−1.98 · n=2118.47−2.65 · n=211KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY2.25−0.72 · n=2142.31−0.85 · n=2142.44−1.00 · n=2132.60−1.21 · n=2132.97−1.51 · n=2133.35−1.66 · n=2123.62−1.41 · n=2113.99−1.35 · n=2124.21−0.82 · n=2114.48−0.71 · n=209KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC2.72−1.85 · n=2153.17−2.35 · n=2143.42−2.39 · n=2133.61−2.32 · n=2133.95−2.10 · n=2134.62−2.29 · n=2125.15−2.14 · n=2115.76−1.56 · n=2105.86−1.52 · n=2106.72−1.28 · n=209KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC3.05+0.01 · n=2143.29−0.95 · n=2143.86−1.73 · n=2134.39−2.21 · n=2134.93−2.41 · n=2135.37−2.15 · n=2126.08−1.71 · n=2117.45−1.70 · n=2118.50−2.03 · n=2108.69−2.45 · n=209KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD2.49−1.51 · n=2153.08−2.05 · n=2153.35−2.15 · n=2143.92−2.40 · n=2144.31−2.23 · n=2145.00−1.85 · n=2135.47−1.11 · n=2126.41−1.02 · n=2127.12−0.79 · n=2118.04−1.60 · n=210KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL3.63−3.21 · n=2153.60−3.05 · n=2153.73−2.95 · n=2143.83−2.65 · n=2144.24−2.55 · n=2144.71−2.57 · n=2135.31−2.36 · n=2125.86−1.77 · n=2126.12−1.70 · n=2116.90−1.24 · n=210KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX4.95−4.84 · n=2155.36−5.18 · n=2155.28−5.10 · n=2155.29−4.99 · n=2145.31−5.00 · n=2135.39−4.72 · n=2135.72−4.88 · n=2136.26−5.22 · n=2126.45−5.46 · n=210—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN2.88−1.90 · n=2143.12−2.39 · n=2143.29−2.62 · n=2143.41−2.71 · n=2133.49−2.79 · n=2123.62−2.75 · n=2123.90−2.88 · n=2124.23−3.21 · n=2114.36−3.44 · n=209—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT2.49−1.47 · n=2162.81−1.88 · n=2163.01−2.12 · n=2153.25−2.39 · n=2143.61−2.35 · n=2144.00−2.28 · n=2144.48−2.27 · n=2135.03−2.03 · n=2125.29−1.82 · n=2115.84−2.32 · n=211KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA2.17−0.89 · n=2152.40−1.60 · n=2152.64−1.82 · n=2152.78−1.91 · n=2143.12−1.92 · n=2133.47−2.11 · n=2133.90−2.14 · n=2134.42−2.24 · n=2124.57−1.84 · n=210—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.42−1.70 · n=2152.79−2.33 · n=2153.15−2.78 · n=2153.30−2.97 · n=2143.69−3.29 · n=2133.90−3.42 · n=2134.33−3.72 · n=2134.42−3.85 · n=2124.75−3.96 · n=210—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN2.15−0.54 · n=2102.32−0.28 · n=2102.67−0.23 · n=2092.89+0.07 · n=2103.51+0.28 · n=2094.17+0.17 · n=2094.83+0.44 · n=2085.63+1.03 · n=2086.15+1.14 · n=2067.10+1.43 · n=206KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 4 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.56−2.09 · n=2143.01−2.64 · n=2143.27−2.90 · n=2133.75−3.09 · n=2133.93−3.02 · n=2134.50−2.97 · n=2125.06−2.81 · n=2115.91−2.60 · n=2116.14−2.52 · n=2106.63−2.62 · n=209KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS3.77−3.59 · n=2144.32−4.04 · n=2144.78−4.46 · n=2134.94−4.66 · n=2135.17−4.55 · n=2135.33−4.48 · n=2125.84−4.53 · n=2106.68−4.36 · n=2116.85−4.18 · n=2107.50−4.98 · n=209KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS2.33−1.68 · n=2042.34−1.51 · n=2022.69−1.37 · n=2043.19−0.87 · n=2034.07−0.62 · n=2025.12−0.88 · n=2035.97−0.65 · n=1996.48+0.25 · n=2007.27−0.42 · n=2007.52+0.14 · n=197KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.99−2.34 · n=2143.27−2.27 · n=2143.49−2.19 · n=2133.74−1.76 · n=2134.07−1.76 · n=2134.72−1.68 · n=2125.46−1.26 · n=2116.14−0.73 · n=2116.66−1.02 · n=2107.42−0.60 · n=209KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN3.52−2.74 · n=2154.08−3.44 · n=2144.71−4.01 · n=2155.10−3.78 · n=2145.47−3.54 · n=2135.77−3.16 · n=2137.23−2.83 · n=2137.77−2.56 · n=2129.01−3.95 · n=209—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW3.31−3.10 · n=2124.25−4.10 · n=2124.73−4.46 · n=2105.19−4.96 · n=2105.51−4.87 · n=2115.59−4.58 · n=2096.28−4.67 · n=2087.29−4.32 · n=2087.44−4.15 · n=2078.59−5.26 · n=208KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR3.55−3.19 · n=2133.73−3.31 · n=2133.92−3.28 · n=2124.02−3.08 · n=2124.38−2.96 · n=2125.24−2.86 · n=2115.97−2.72 · n=2106.62−1.78 · n=2106.76−2.18 · n=2098.06−1.74 · n=208KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH2.13−1.53 · n=2152.68−2.28 · n=2153.10−2.58 · n=2143.23−2.73 · n=2143.52−2.81 · n=2143.80−2.61 · n=2134.16−2.72 · n=2124.79−2.41 · n=2125.12−2.02 · n=2115.55−2.56 · n=210KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS6.47−6.47 · n=2146.77−6.77 · n=2146.59−6.56 · n=2156.58−6.52 · n=2146.27−6.16 · n=2136.47−6.17 · n=2137.20−6.20 · n=2137.40−6.37 · n=2117.81−6.64 · n=209—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX2.27−1.59 · n=2152.52−1.90 · n=2142.64−2.02 · n=2142.89−2.06 · n=2133.09−2.05 · n=2123.27−2.15 · n=2123.70−2.23 · n=2134.11−2.71 · n=2114.64−3.06 · n=210—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA2.09−1.31 · n=2132.22−1.62 · n=2112.14−1.25 · n=2112.41−1.62 · n=2122.64−1.73 · n=2122.75−1.81 · n=2093.04−1.74 · n=2103.50−1.79 · n=2093.44−1.45 · n=2083.60−1.26 · n=206KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP3.31−3.04 · n=2163.82−3.44 · n=2164.18−3.46 · n=2154.68−3.87 · n=2144.92−3.47 · n=2145.28−2.54 · n=2146.01−2.27 · n=2136.94−2.12 · n=2128.08−3.09 · n=2118.95−3.56 · n=211KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY2.53−2.19 · n=2142.58−2.04 · n=2142.71−2.21 · n=2132.83−2.28 · n=2133.40−2.64 · n=2133.87−2.81 · n=2123.90−2.53 · n=2114.29−2.32 · n=2124.53−1.87 · n=2114.57−1.88 · n=209KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC2.56−1.86 · n=2152.92−2.09 · n=2143.13−2.03 · n=2133.28−1.96 · n=2133.52−1.70 · n=2134.50−1.76 · n=2125.20−1.65 · n=2115.96−0.60 · n=2106.14−1.05 · n=2107.46−0.65 · n=209KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC3.07−2.55 · n=2143.91−3.48 · n=2144.66−4.21 · n=2135.28−4.60 · n=2135.79−4.84 · n=2136.40−4.40 · n=2127.01−4.23 · n=2118.23−4.25 · n=2118.95−4.56 · n=2109.35−5.30 · n=209KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD2.89−2.33 · n=2153.50−2.86 · n=2153.82−2.94 · n=2144.46−3.39 · n=2144.63−3.16 · n=2145.23−2.64 · n=2135.84−1.88 · n=2126.89−1.70 · n=2126.93−1.70 · n=2118.39−2.55 · n=210KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL3.04−2.73 · n=2153.39−2.77 · n=2153.48−2.56 · n=2143.41−2.17 · n=2144.06−1.96 · n=2144.78−1.96 · n=2135.60−1.71 · n=2126.19−0.71 · n=2126.47−1.14 · n=2117.49−0.47 · n=210KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX4.79−4.76 · n=2155.00−4.93 · n=2154.96−4.81 · n=2154.99−4.76 · n=2145.03−4.83 · n=2135.21−4.54 · n=2135.86−4.73 · n=2136.44−5.25 · n=2126.49−5.44 · n=210—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN3.80−3.80 · n=2144.16−4.16 · n=2144.41−4.38 · n=2144.54−4.49 · n=2134.72−4.62 · n=2124.77−4.59 · n=2125.17−4.74 · n=2125.57−5.18 · n=2115.75−5.40 · n=209—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT3.49−3.33 · n=2163.91−3.77 · n=2164.30−4.08 · n=2154.54−4.37 · n=2144.67−4.18 · n=2144.87−4.04 · n=2145.23−4.16 · n=2135.87−3.93 · n=2126.09−3.75 · n=2116.79−4.57 · n=211KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA2.96−2.49 · n=2153.34−2.98 · n=2153.49−3.00 · n=2153.67−3.10 · n=2144.04−3.01 · n=2134.29−3.32 · n=2134.89−3.36 · n=2135.32−3.43 · n=2125.75−2.82 · n=210—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO3.56−3.18 · n=2153.96−3.59 · n=2154.31−4.00 · n=2154.38−4.07 · n=2144.82−4.45 · n=2135.02−4.56 · n=2135.53−4.90 · n=2135.44−4.84 · n=2126.01−5.04 · n=210—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN1.74−0.19 · n=2102.21−0.11 · n=2102.63−0.19 · n=2092.74+0.19 · n=2103.51+0.60 · n=2094.60+0.48 · n=2095.37+0.78 · n=2086.24+1.87 · n=2086.81+1.48 · n=2067.77+2.04 · n=206KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.08−1.57 · n=2142.14−1.67 · n=2142.27−1.82 · n=2132.56−1.90 · n=2132.95−2.18 · n=2133.39−2.19 · n=2123.87−2.21 · n=2114.15−2.16 · n=2114.49−1.68 · n=2104.79−1.03 · n=209KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS3.40+2.39 · n=2143.39+1.96 · n=2143.21+1.71 · n=2133.36+1.39 · n=2133.79+1.16 · n=2134.00+1.12 · n=2124.84+1.49 · n=2105.27+1.75 · n=2115.75+2.21 · n=2105.97+1.61 · n=209KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS2.97−2.24 · n=2042.82−2.15 · n=2022.90−2.23 · n=2043.14−2.10 · n=2033.01−1.84 · n=2023.54−1.98 · n=2034.22−1.51 · n=1994.91−1.54 · n=2004.99−0.94 · n=2005.77−1.04 · n=197KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA2.86−2.28 · n=2142.74−2.05 · n=2142.76−1.78 · n=2132.89−1.45 · n=2133.27−1.47 · n=2133.67−1.77 · n=2124.30−1.34 · n=2114.96−1.02 · n=2115.22−0.84 · n=2105.66−0.48 · n=209KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN2.89+0.80 · n=2153.40−0.66 · n=2143.69−0.91 · n=2154.02−1.01 · n=2144.31−0.68 · n=2134.56−0.96 · n=2135.14−1.06 · n=2135.76−0.75 · n=2126.05−1.41 · n=209—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.58+0.51 · n=2121.71−0.39 · n=2122.17−0.93 · n=2102.59−1.19 · n=2103.24−1.48 · n=2113.73−1.65 · n=2093.98−1.05 · n=2085.42−0.77 · n=2085.82−0.42 · n=2076.18−1.04 · n=208KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR2.23−1.52 · n=2132.45−1.94 · n=2132.64−1.94 · n=2122.88−2.04 · n=2123.25−1.74 · n=2123.53−1.94 · n=2114.18−1.75 · n=2104.66−1.52 · n=2104.70−1.07 · n=2095.51−0.94 · n=208KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.99+1.11 · n=2151.76+0.15 · n=2151.92−0.13 · n=2142.29−0.45 · n=2142.53−0.66 · n=2143.09−0.86 · n=2133.70−0.80 · n=2123.99−0.39 · n=2124.80+0.21 · n=2114.90+0.12 · n=210KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS4.48−3.71 · n=2145.48−5.07 · n=2145.58−5.20 · n=2155.45−5.08 · n=2145.21−4.80 · n=2135.40−4.85 · n=2135.55−4.63 · n=2135.64−4.58 · n=2116.18−4.81 · n=209—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX1.69−0.83 · n=2151.99−1.49 · n=2142.17−1.74 · n=2142.21−1.87 · n=2132.33−1.89 · n=2122.45−1.80 · n=2122.82−1.87 · n=2133.11−2.00 · n=2113.35−2.43 · n=210—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.74+1.40 · n=2131.52+0.36 · n=2111.64−0.21 · n=2111.85−0.59 · n=2121.97−0.71 · n=2122.18−0.71 · n=2092.36−0.74 · n=2102.71−0.56 · n=2093.18−0.54 · n=2083.28−0.19 · n=206KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP2.07−1.35 · n=2162.73−2.00 · n=2162.98−2.04 · n=2153.16−2.16 · n=2143.63−1.97 · n=2144.16−1.33 · n=2144.80−1.28 · n=2135.92−0.87 · n=2126.40−0.73 · n=2117.34−1.64 · n=211KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY1.99+1.06 · n=2141.92+0.74 · n=2142.05+0.66 · n=2132.11+0.45 · n=2132.33+0.09 · n=2132.52−0.03 · n=2123.01+0.23 · n=2113.34+0.18 · n=2123.79+0.83 · n=2114.16+0.95 · n=209KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC2.34−1.31 · n=2152.77−1.94 · n=2142.98−1.94 · n=2133.16−1.97 · n=2133.44−1.66 · n=2133.83−1.98 · n=2124.39−1.74 · n=2114.77−1.46 · n=2104.78−1.11 · n=2105.54−0.99 · n=209KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC3.20+2.59 · n=2142.96+1.68 · n=2143.23+1.00 · n=2133.49+0.49 · n=2133.97+0.36 · n=2134.11+0.37 · n=2124.70+1.08 · n=2116.15+0.91 · n=2117.30+1.02 · n=2107.44+0.76 · n=209KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD1.60−0.63 · n=2152.25−1.08 · n=2152.53−1.21 · n=2142.84−1.30 · n=2143.18−1.16 · n=2144.00−0.85 · n=2134.48−0.14 · n=2125.13−0.15 · n=2125.92+0.36 · n=2116.89−0.33 · n=210KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL3.12−2.72 · n=2152.82−2.48 · n=2152.92−2.29 · n=2143.04−2.08 · n=2143.31−1.87 · n=2143.56−2.15 · n=2134.38−1.86 · n=2124.83−1.50 · n=2124.89−1.06 · n=2115.74−0.87 · n=210KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX5.02−4.95 · n=2155.83−5.75 · n=2155.83−5.76 · n=2155.76−5.65 · n=2145.78−5.64 · n=2135.74−5.50 · n=2135.66−5.39 · n=2136.29−5.81 · n=2126.54−6.09 · n=210—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN2.46+0.34 · n=2142.52−0.50 · n=2142.53−0.66 · n=2142.67−0.79 · n=2132.60−0.84 · n=2122.73−0.71 · n=2122.87−0.84 · n=2123.20−0.95 · n=2113.19−1.28 · n=209—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT1.85−0.10 · n=2162.07−0.40 · n=2162.04−0.63 · n=2152.32−0.86 · n=2142.87−0.98 · n=2143.33−1.03 · n=2143.79−0.82 · n=2134.15−0.44 · n=2124.83−0.10 · n=2115.15−0.45 · n=211KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA1.54+0.52 · n=2151.61−0.55 · n=2151.77−0.87 · n=2151.97−1.01 · n=2142.33−1.18 · n=2132.56−1.18 · n=2132.98−1.24 · n=2133.50−1.51 · n=2123.71−1.28 · n=210—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO1.68−0.42 · n=2151.96−1.29 · n=2152.30−1.84 · n=2152.51−2.15 · n=2142.84−2.38 · n=2132.99−2.63 · n=2133.38−2.90 · n=2133.63−3.13 · n=2123.80−3.25 · n=210—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN1.85+0.13 · n=2101.89+0.45 · n=2102.33+0.62 · n=2092.50+0.78 · n=2103.22+1.23 · n=2093.30+0.82 · n=2094.11+1.10 · n=2084.80+1.47 · n=2085.18+2.02 · n=2066.08+1.97 · n=206KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL5.38−5.37 · n=2165.96−5.95 · n=2166.23−6.16 · n=2156.56−6.47 · n=2146.65−6.37 · n=2146.88−6.24 · n=2147.04−6.11 · n=2137.58−5.86 · n=2127.85−5.87 · n=2118.19−5.87 · n=211KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS7.32−7.27 · n=2167.86−7.75 · n=2168.38−8.21 · n=2158.43−8.37 · n=2148.57−8.28 · n=2148.59−8.11 · n=2148.98−8.22 · n=2139.47−7.98 · n=2129.59−7.75 · n=21110.36−8.61 · n=211KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS4.05−3.85 · n=2164.05−3.85 · n=2154.05−3.51 · n=2144.10−2.88 · n=2134.74−2.83 · n=2135.97−3.05 · n=2146.64−2.59 · n=2126.94−1.78 · n=2127.51−2.55 · n=2117.82−1.94 · n=210KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA5.23−5.04 · n=2165.37−5.04 · n=2165.50−4.85 · n=2155.56−4.52 · n=2145.59−4.45 · n=2146.27−4.48 · n=2147.10−4.03 · n=2137.25−3.48 · n=2127.56−3.69 · n=2118.26−3.28 · n=211KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN7.14−7.09 · n=2167.72−7.72 · n=2168.25−8.21 · n=2158.29−8.02 · n=2148.40−7.75 · n=2148.59−7.38 · n=2149.44−6.80 · n=2139.62−6.82 · n=21210.83−8.13 · n=211—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW6.44−6.42 · n=2167.34−7.28 · n=2167.90−7.76 · n=2158.32−8.24 · n=2148.50−8.14 · n=2148.46−7.82 · n=2148.98−7.91 · n=2139.78−7.47 · n=2129.80−7.37 · n=21110.90−8.46 · n=211KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR5.56−5.53 · n=2165.73−5.70 · n=2165.77−5.61 · n=2155.65−5.42 · n=2145.81−5.17 · n=2146.60−5.20 · n=2147.17−5.08 · n=2137.63−4.12 · n=2127.59−4.45 · n=2118.64−4.02 · n=211KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH5.23−5.17 · n=2166.03−5.99 · n=2166.33−6.22 · n=2156.41−6.29 · n=2146.55−6.40 · n=2146.60−6.16 · n=2146.85−6.22 · n=2137.21−5.95 · n=2127.24−5.61 · n=2117.86−6.21 · n=211KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS7.84−7.84 · n=2168.01−8.01 · n=2167.87−7.87 · n=2157.89−7.85 · n=2147.49−7.46 · n=2147.55−7.41 · n=2148.25−7.53 · n=2138.44−7.66 · n=2128.66−7.87 · n=211—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX4.87−4.82 · n=2165.08−5.03 · n=2165.25−5.18 · n=2155.34−5.20 · n=2145.40−5.20 · n=2145.61−5.35 · n=2145.77−5.34 · n=2136.35−5.94 · n=2126.69−6.22 · n=211—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA3.79−3.72 · n=2163.81−3.73 · n=2163.71−3.60 · n=2153.97−3.85 · n=2144.09−3.93 · n=2144.30−4.17 · n=2144.36−4.08 · n=2134.63−4.13 · n=2124.55−3.78 · n=2114.78−3.66 · n=211KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP5.57−5.55 · n=2166.09−5.98 · n=2166.20−5.91 · n=2156.64−6.23 · n=2146.62−5.92 · n=2146.73−4.94 · n=2147.25−4.63 · n=2138.00−4.58 · n=2129.31−5.51 · n=21110.36−6.06 · n=211KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY4.90−4.88 · n=2164.92−4.80 · n=2165.00−4.92 · n=2155.08−4.97 · n=2145.60−5.43 · n=2145.86−5.52 · n=2145.82−5.24 · n=2135.95−4.97 · n=2126.04−4.52 · n=2116.08−4.56 · n=211KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC3.94−3.84 · n=2164.23−4.15 · n=2164.37−4.09 · n=2154.35−3.90 · n=2144.47−3.63 · n=2145.47−3.71 · n=2146.06−3.58 · n=2136.60−2.67 · n=2126.66−3.05 · n=2117.85−2.65 · n=211KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC6.46−6.37 · n=2167.41−7.30 · n=2168.10−7.93 · n=2148.71−8.43 · n=2139.07−8.67 · n=2149.33−8.20 · n=2139.79−8.01 · n=21210.69−7.97 · n=21111.29−8.23 · n=21011.96−9.14 · n=210KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD4.87−4.74 · n=2165.37−5.21 · n=2165.51−5.26 · n=2156.15−5.79 · n=2146.34−5.61 · n=2146.63−4.94 · n=2146.99−4.27 · n=2137.79−4.01 · n=2127.70−4.04 · n=2119.25−4.88 · n=211KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL5.26−5.20 · n=2165.38−5.20 · n=2165.34−4.98 · n=2155.17−4.71 · n=2145.48−4.44 · n=2146.09−4.46 · n=2146.90−4.13 · n=2137.15−3.18 · n=2127.27−3.58 · n=2118.17−3.02 · n=211KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX6.73−6.72 · n=2166.89−6.89 · n=2166.74−6.70 · n=2156.70−6.62 · n=2146.78−6.73 · n=2146.67−6.38 · n=2147.37−6.66 · n=2137.85−7.14 · n=2127.95−7.33 · n=211—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN6.41−6.41 · n=2166.88−6.88 · n=2167.05−7.05 · n=2157.12−7.12 · n=2147.27−7.26 · n=2147.26−7.25 · n=2147.55−7.39 · n=2138.07−7.90 · n=2128.16−8.09 · n=211—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT6.64−6.62 · n=2167.19−7.13 · n=2167.54−7.45 · n=2157.69−7.67 · n=2147.69−7.54 · n=2147.70−7.36 · n=2147.94−7.40 · n=2138.36−7.20 · n=2128.60−7.11 · n=2119.33−7.85 · n=211KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA4.18−4.02 · n=2164.58−4.44 · n=2164.72−4.52 · n=2154.86−4.64 · n=2145.02−4.39 · n=2145.27−4.80 · n=2145.85−4.84 · n=2136.21−4.93 · n=2126.22−4.28 · n=211—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO6.22−6.17 · n=2166.61−6.56 · n=2167.09−7.05 · n=2157.15−7.10 · n=2147.58−7.54 · n=2147.74−7.65 · n=2148.10−7.97 · n=2138.03−7.94 · n=2128.29−8.05 · n=211—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN3.03−2.68 · n=2163.12−2.54 · n=2163.50−2.50 · n=2153.46−2.20 · n=2144.07−1.89 · n=2144.98−1.98 · n=2145.70−1.63 · n=2136.43−0.63 · n=2126.72−0.99 · n=2118.01−0.49 · n=211KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 365 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.74+0.21 · n=2161.75+0.07 · n=2151.79+0.01 · n=2142.15−0.12 · n=2142.45−0.46 · n=2133.10−0.42 · n=2133.58−0.49 · n=2124.00−0.51 · n=2114.29−0.02 · n=2104.43+0.71 · n=210KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS5.38+5.02 · n=2165.12+4.66 · n=2164.98+4.36 · n=2154.85+4.06 · n=2144.96+3.76 · n=2145.13+3.72 · n=2145.88+4.02 · n=2136.46+4.23 · n=2126.85+4.62 · n=2117.08+4.07 · n=211KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS2.36−0.02 · n=2162.19+0.06 · n=2152.29+0.14 · n=2142.60+0.20 · n=2132.64+0.40 · n=2133.13+0.28 · n=2143.84+0.86 · n=2124.49+0.61 · n=2124.91+1.33 · n=2115.49+1.29 · n=210KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA2.14−0.10 · n=2162.40+0.12 · n=2162.66+0.59 · n=2152.72+0.73 · n=2143.10+0.80 · n=2143.34+0.53 · n=2143.85+0.78 · n=2134.79+1.23 · n=2125.16+1.56 · n=2115.83+1.91 · n=211KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN4.62+4.31 · n=2163.75+2.79 · n=2163.88+2.55 · n=2153.98+2.46 · n=2144.42+2.88 · n=2144.49+2.57 · n=2144.78+2.38 · n=2135.77+2.76 · n=2125.80+2.01 · n=211—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW2.72+2.28 · n=2162.37+1.38 · n=2162.56+0.90 · n=2152.87+0.59 · n=2143.38+0.25 · n=2143.81+0.08 · n=2144.08+0.76 · n=2135.30+1.05 · n=2125.85+1.33 · n=2116.15+0.66 · n=211KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.46+1.23 · n=2162.14+0.63 · n=2162.36+0.72 · n=2152.69+0.59 · n=2142.97+1.01 · n=2142.99+0.70 · n=2143.77+0.94 · n=2134.30+1.22 · n=2124.84+1.80 · n=2115.63+1.73 · n=211KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH3.11+2.67 · n=2162.68+1.81 · n=2162.57+1.54 · n=2152.76+1.21 · n=2142.84+0.86 · n=2143.30+0.73 · n=2143.76+0.77 · n=2134.28+1.28 · n=2125.27+1.74 · n=2115.20+1.66 · n=211KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS3.79−2.06 · n=2164.47−3.32 · n=2164.45−3.41 · n=2154.33−3.27 · n=2144.17−2.98 · n=2144.41−3.02 · n=2144.48−2.82 · n=2134.85−2.78 · n=2125.40−3.02 · n=211—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.87+0.83 · n=2161.67+0.18 · n=2161.73−0.06 · n=2151.77−0.22 · n=2141.96−0.22 · n=2142.08−0.18 · n=2142.50−0.21 · n=2132.64−0.37 · n=2122.80−0.74 · n=211—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA3.49+3.48 · n=2162.54+2.36 · n=2162.32+1.79 · n=2152.24+1.42 · n=2142.26+1.29 · n=2142.51+1.33 · n=2142.60+1.20 · n=2132.91+1.42 · n=2123.34+1.61 · n=2113.28+1.76 · n=211KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP2.33+0.63 · n=2162.90+0.07 · n=2163.00−0.12 · n=2153.01−0.22 · n=2143.55+0.08 · n=2144.07+0.60 · n=2144.75+0.60 · n=2135.87+1.08 · n=2126.54+1.14 · n=2117.37+0.25 · n=211KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY3.26+3.05 · n=2163.07+2.76 · n=2163.06+2.71 · n=2152.98+2.42 · n=2142.90+2.00 · n=2143.12+1.97 · n=2143.49+2.16 · n=2133.91+2.26 · n=2124.48+2.82 · n=2114.76+2.94 · n=211KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.72+0.69 · n=2162.71+0.03 · n=2162.90+0.07 · n=2153.07+0.00 · n=2143.34+0.33 · n=2143.37−0.05 · n=2144.13+0.22 · n=2134.28+0.53 · n=2124.63+0.91 · n=2115.45+0.96 · n=211KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC5.15+5.01 · n=2164.43+4.03 · n=2164.26+3.45 · n=2154.25+2.88 · n=2144.73+2.88 · n=2145.07+2.95 · n=2145.66+3.47 · n=2136.96+3.53 · n=2127.71+3.44 · n=2117.83+3.06 · n=211KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD2.45+1.64 · n=2162.91+1.32 · n=2163.07+1.11 · n=2153.30+1.00 · n=2143.48+0.99 · n=2144.26+1.41 · n=2144.87+2.09 · n=2135.51+2.13 · n=2126.16+2.68 · n=2117.08+1.95 · n=211KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL2.28−0.33 · n=2162.41−0.08 · n=2162.60+0.15 · n=2152.69+0.24 · n=2143.03+0.48 · n=2143.03+0.20 · n=2143.89+0.50 · n=2134.53+0.83 · n=2125.08+1.35 · n=2115.81+1.45 · n=211KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX3.28−2.91 · n=2163.98−3.67 · n=2163.98−3.60 · n=2154.04−3.59 · n=2144.01−3.52 · n=2144.12−3.42 · n=2144.09−3.34 · n=2134.61−3.71 · n=2124.96−4.01 · n=211—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN3.00+1.91 · n=2162.80+1.13 · n=2162.81+0.97 · n=2152.90+0.82 · n=2142.94+0.72 · n=2142.95+0.86 · n=2143.04+0.78 · n=2133.17+0.66 · n=2123.06+0.33 · n=211—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT2.45+1.55 · n=2162.56+1.33 · n=2162.40+1.06 · n=2152.54+0.86 · n=2143.00+0.61 · n=2143.42+0.63 · n=2143.90+0.79 · n=2134.38+1.14 · n=2125.02+1.49 · n=2115.43+1.11 · n=211KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA2.29+2.06 · n=2161.73+1.03 · n=2161.73+0.71 · n=2151.87+0.60 · n=2141.99+0.39 · n=2142.25+0.46 · n=2142.73+0.38 · n=2133.25+0.08 · n=2123.49+0.27 · n=211—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO1.80+0.95 · n=2161.62+0.05 · n=2161.72−0.48 · n=2151.88−0.80 · n=2142.12−1.02 · n=2142.36−1.29 · n=2142.68−1.54 · n=2132.96−1.78 · n=2123.11−1.89 · n=211—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN3.77+3.13 · n=2163.84+3.41 · n=2164.21+3.65 · n=2154.18+3.68 · n=2144.79+4.10 · n=2144.37+3.68 · n=2145.30+4.12 · n=2135.96+4.45 · n=2126.64+5.08 · n=2117.32+4.99 · n=211KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · GRAP · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.