GraphCast (GFS init) (graphcast_gfs)
source aiwp · product GRAP · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 5.04-5.04 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 6.93-6.93 · n=2 | 8.63-8.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 4.38-4.38 · n=2 | 5.34-5.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 5.94-5.94 · n=2 | 5.13-5.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 5.27-5.27 · n=2 | 3.06-3.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 4.86-4.86 · n=2 | 5.83-5.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 3.88-3.88 · n=2 | 4.59-4.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 4.09-4.09 · n=2 | 5.55-5.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 7.94-7.94 · n=2 | 7.64-7.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 5.57-5.57 · n=2 | 5.25-5.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 6.05-6.05 · n=2 | 6.08-6.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 6.98-6.98 · n=2 | 7.60-7.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 5.57-5.57 · n=2 | 5.32-5.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 0.97-0.97 · n=2 | 2.18-2.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 5.74-5.74 · n=2 | 7.68-7.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 3.52-3.52 · n=2 | 6.94-6.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 5.26-5.26 · n=2 | 6.35-6.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 14.89-14.89 · n=2 | 13.90-13.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 5.30-5.30 · n=2 | 3.50-3.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 6.67-6.67 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 6.13-6.13 · n=2 | 4.43-4.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 6.19-6.19 · n=2 | 4.64-4.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 1.76-1.76 · n=2 | 3.44-3.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.43-1.43 · n=2 | 0.62-0.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 6.49+6.49 · n=2 | 4.84+4.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 3.50-3.50 · n=2 | 4.45-4.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 2.09-2.09 · n=2 | 1.22-1.22 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 4.74+4.74 · n=2 | 3.27+3.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 2.50+2.50 · n=2 | 0.85+0.85 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 1.83+1.83 · n=2 | 2.38+2.38 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 2.29+2.29 · n=2 | 0.93+0.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 6.58-6.58 · n=2 | 9.42-9.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 1.21-1.21 · n=2 | 2.09-2.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 3.60+3.60 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 1.24+1.24 · n=2 | 1.36-1.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 2.51-0.22 · n=2 | 2.65-2.65 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 0.59+0.45 · n=2 | 0.26+0.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 7.30+7.30 · n=2 | 5.73+5.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 0.75+0.75 · n=2 | 0.90+0.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 0.45-0.45 · n=2 | 1.56+1.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 6.39-6.39 · n=2 | 8.09-8.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 1.52-0.94 · n=2 | 1.97-1.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 1.07-0.46 · n=2 | 2.20-2.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 1.21+1.21 · n=2 | 0.46+0.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 0.62+0.12 · n=2 | 0.89-0.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 3.99+3.99 · n=2 | 6.61+6.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · GRAP · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences