KPHX — Phoenix Sky Harbor
33.4278, -112.0035 · 340 m· standard offset UTC-7 h · truth product CLIPHX
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.09-2.84 · n=30 | 3.15-2.90 · n=29 | 3.49-3.27 · n=28 | 3.63-3.40 · n=27 | 3.81-3.61 · n=26 | 4.14-3.54 · n=25 | 4.92-4.35 · n=24 | 5.51-5.14 · n=23 | 6.91-6.38 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 13.44-13.44 · n=2 | 14.58-14.58 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 5.71-5.71 · n=3 | 8.35-8.35 · n=2 | 10.42-10.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 10.57-10.57 · n=2 | 12.64-12.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 7.94-7.94 · n=3 | 10.33-10.33 · n=2 | 11.70-11.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.96-2.69 · n=30 | 2.91-2.59 · n=29 | 2.75-2.42 · n=28 | 4.05-3.32 · n=27 | 3.49-3.14 · n=26 | 4.01-3.45 · n=25 | 4.38-3.83 · n=24 | 4.31-3.87 · n=23 | 4.90-4.11 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 14.89-14.89 · n=2 | 13.90-13.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 3.25-3.06 · n=34 | 3.71-3.55 · n=33 | 3.94-3.83 · n=32 | 3.93-3.85 · n=31 | 4.24-4.15 · n=31 | 5.08-4.92 · n=31 | 5.49-5.33 · n=30 | 6.14-5.92 · n=29 | 7.95-7.77 · n=28 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.09-2.01 · n=25 | 2.38-2.08 · n=22 | 2.79-2.42 · n=23 | 2.98-2.57 · n=22 | 2.84-2.52 · n=20 | 3.53-2.53 · n=18 | 3.06-2.30 · n=19 | 3.42-1.93 · n=18 | 5.09-3.44 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 8.75-8.75 · n=2 | 7.42-7.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 6.10-6.10 · n=3 | 7.45-7.45 · n=2 | 7.00-7.00 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.40-0.04 · n=972 | 5.10-0.09 · n=971 | 5.99-0.14 · n=970 | 6.57-0.20 · n=969 | 7.05-0.26 · n=968 | 7.27-0.31 · n=967 | 7.31-0.37 · n=966 | 7.30-0.43 · n=965 | 7.33-0.49 · n=964 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.73-2.29 · n=30 | 3.54-1.97 · n=29 | 3.46-1.99 · n=28 | 3.65-1.85 · n=27 | 4.00-2.18 · n=26 | 4.01-2.02 · n=25 | 4.29-2.30 · n=24 | 4.36-2.58 · n=23 | 4.69-2.93 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.38-5.38 · n=2 | 6.82-6.82 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 3.20-3.20 · n=3 | 2.58-2.58 · n=2 | 5.20-5.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 5.67-5.67 · n=2 | 6.54-6.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.99-4.99 · n=3 | 4.13-4.13 · n=2 | 6.16-6.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 4.44+3.22 · n=30 | 4.07+3.12 · n=29 | 4.23+3.16 · n=28 | 4.11+3.26 · n=27 | 4.17+3.93 · n=26 | 4.57+3.68 · n=25 | 4.51+3.47 · n=24 | 4.38+2.85 · n=23 | 5.10+3.88 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.39-6.39 · n=2 | 8.09-8.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.53-0.40 · n=34 | 2.64-0.35 · n=33 | 2.59-0.72 · n=32 | 2.95-0.67 · n=31 | 2.95-0.87 · n=31 | 3.43-0.85 · n=31 | 4.11-1.43 · n=30 | 4.17-0.98 · n=29 | 4.12-1.33 · n=28 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.15+0.29 · n=25 | 3.17+0.98 · n=22 | 3.36+1.11 · n=23 | 3.50+1.34 · n=22 | 3.71+1.41 · n=20 | 3.69+2.16 · n=18 | 3.48+1.69 · n=19 | 3.49-0.30 · n=18 | 3.02+0.54 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.25-2.25 · n=2 | 1.48-1.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.55-1.07 · n=3 | 0.89-0.83 · n=2 | 0.83-0.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.72-0.04 · n=972 | 3.82-0.09 · n=971 | 4.43-0.14 · n=970 | 4.84-0.19 · n=969 | 5.11-0.24 · n=968 | 5.30-0.29 · n=967 | 5.34-0.34 · n=966 | 5.37-0.39 · n=965 | 5.52-0.45 · n=964 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences