Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) (fourcastnet_ifs)

source aiwp · product FOUR · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, FOUR_v200, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 2.04-2.04 · n=2 3.84-3.84 · n=1 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 5.40-5.40 · n=2 4.78-4.78 · n=1 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 4.49-2.33 · n=2 6.85-6.85 · n=1 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 2.63-2.63 · n=2 2.09-2.09 · n=1 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 5.09-5.09 · n=2 3.61-3.61 · n=1 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 6.61-6.61 · n=2 5.05-5.05 · n=1 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 2.22-2.22 · n=2 2.01-2.01 · n=1 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 3.71-3.71 · n=2 3.46-3.46 · n=1 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 5.51-5.51 · n=2 3.23-3.23 · n=1 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 3.51-3.51 · n=2 2.68-2.68 · n=1 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 5.26-5.26 · n=2 5.24-5.24 · n=1 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 6.11-6.11 · n=2 6.66-6.66 · n=1 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 2.73-2.73 · n=2 1.49-1.49 · n=1 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 1.69+0.90 · n=2 0.44+0.44 · n=1 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 8.23-8.23 · n=2 7.67-7.67 · n=1 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 2.02-2.02 · n=2 1.55-1.55 · n=1 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 3.09-3.09 · n=2 4.05-4.05 · n=1 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 9.86-9.86 · n=2 10.13-10.13 · n=1 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 2.57-2.57 · n=2 0.03-0.03 · n=1 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 3.72-3.72 · n=2 2.68-2.68 · n=1 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 2.65-2.65 · n=2 0.07-0.07 · n=1 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 2.34-2.34 · n=2 0.68-0.68 · n=1 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 2.39+0.21 · n=2 0.61-0.61 · n=1 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 0.99-0.87 · n=2 0.44+0.44 · n=1 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 4.11+4.11 · n=2 3.98+3.98 · n=1 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 2.54-1.00 · n=2 1.64-1.64 · n=1 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 0.31-0.31 · n=2 0.87+0.87 · n=1 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 2.63+2.63 · n=2 0.96+0.96 · n=1 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 1.30-1.30 · n=2 1.83-1.83 · n=1 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 2.16+2.16 · n=2 3.68+3.68 · n=1 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 1.71+1.71 · n=2 2.10+2.10 · n=1 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 5.68-5.68 · n=2 6.66-6.66 · n=1 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 1.88+1.88 · n=2 1.66+1.66 · n=1 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 3.22+2.78 · n=2 0.69+0.69 · n=1 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 1.89-1.89 · n=2 1.60-1.60 · n=1 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 1.98-0.11 · n=2 2.14-2.14 · n=1 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 2.04+0.31 · n=2 0.63+0.63 · n=1 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 2.63+2.63 · n=2 0.33+0.33 · n=1 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 2.07+2.07 · n=2 2.32+2.32 · n=1 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 2.14+2.14 · n=2 4.78+4.78 · n=1 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 3.82-3.82 · n=2 5.16-5.16 · n=1 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 1.34+0.53 · n=2 0.73-0.73 · n=1 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 1.54-0.20 · n=2 1.48-1.48 · n=1 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 1.80+1.44 · n=2 0.47+0.47 · n=1 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 1.22-1.22 · n=2 0.81-0.81 · n=1 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 7.44+7.44 · n=2 10.54+10.54 · n=1 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

aiwp · FOUR · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences