KBOS — Boston Logan
42.3606, -71.0106 · 6 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIBOS
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.25-2.77 · n=29 | 3.38-2.75 · n=28 | 3.39-2.92 · n=27 | 4.06-2.43 · n=26 | 4.26-2.28 · n=25 | 4.63-2.29 · n=24 | 4.68-2.72 · n=23 | 4.87-3.12 · n=22 | 5.44-3.11 · n=21 | 6.27-3.41 · n=20 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 3.94-3.94 · n=2 | 5.54-5.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.84-2.84 · n=2 | 3.01-3.01 · n=2 | 4.12-4.12 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.77-4.27 · n=2 | 6.67-6.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.31-3.73 · n=2 | 4.78-2.31 · n=2 | 6.09-6.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.22-0.80 · n=29 | 2.85-0.93 · n=28 | 2.77-1.52 · n=27 | 3.84-2.06 · n=26 | 4.21-1.39 · n=25 | 4.21-0.89 · n=24 | 4.55-0.64 · n=23 | 5.49-0.02 · n=22 | 6.45-1.15 · n=21 | 7.15-1.85 · n=20 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 4.38-4.38 · n=2 | 5.34-5.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.82-2.46 · n=33 | 2.79-2.37 · n=33 | 3.20-2.72 · n=32 | 3.59-2.54 · n=30 | 4.31-2.03 · n=30 | 4.28-1.40 · n=30 | 4.64-1.54 · n=29 | 4.71-1.64 · n=28 | 5.05-1.60 · n=27 | 5.84-2.67 · n=26 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.15-1.42 · n=23 | 2.40-0.54 · n=22 | 2.37-0.19 · n=21 | 3.82+0.45 · n=21 | 3.81-0.51 · n=19 | 4.09-1.00 · n=17 | 4.76-0.66 · n=18 | 4.37-1.02 · n=17 | 6.53-1.45 · n=16 | 4.33+1.41 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.65-1.20 · n=2 | 3.50-3.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.55-0.54 · n=2 | 2.63-0.53 · n=2 | 3.84-3.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 6.60-0.05 · n=363 | 8.48-0.01 · n=363 | 9.00-0.03 · n=364 | 8.90-0.07 · n=364 | 9.48-0.02 · n=364 | 9.41-0.03 · n=364 | 9.70-0.04 · n=364 | 9.54-0.03 · n=364 | 9.60-0.01 · n=364 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.30-0.07 · n=29 | 1.22-0.03 · n=28 | 1.35+0.03 · n=27 | 1.59+0.00 · n=26 | 1.70-0.12 · n=25 | 1.86-0.09 · n=24 | 1.88-0.19 · n=23 | 2.35-0.26 · n=22 | 2.23-0.66 · n=21 | 3.11-0.51 · n=20 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 3.59-3.59 · n=2 | 4.79-4.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.99-1.99 · n=2 | 2.70-2.70 · n=2 | 5.15-5.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.71-3.71 · n=2 | 3.06-3.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.63-2.63 · n=2 | 2.51-0.37 · n=2 | 1.43-1.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.55-0.83 · n=29 | 1.59-0.69 · n=28 | 1.77-1.26 · n=27 | 1.78-1.07 · n=26 | 1.75-1.19 · n=25 | 3.02-1.13 · n=24 | 2.36-0.52 · n=23 | 2.45-0.27 · n=22 | 2.55-0.52 · n=21 | 3.22-1.48 · n=20 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 3.50-3.50 · n=2 | 4.45-4.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.42-0.28 · n=33 | 1.77-0.43 · n=33 | 1.81-0.44 · n=32 | 1.55-0.23 · n=30 | 1.72+0.17 · n=30 | 2.29+0.48 · n=30 | 2.38+0.58 · n=29 | 2.55+0.39 · n=28 | 2.76-0.65 · n=27 | 3.92-0.91 · n=26 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.27+0.23 · n=23 | 1.30+0.53 · n=22 | 1.82+0.57 · n=21 | 1.81+1.38 · n=21 | 2.23+1.73 · n=19 | 2.30+1.55 · n=17 | 2.58+1.06 · n=18 | 1.64+0.93 · n=17 | 1.71+0.71 · n=16 | 3.00+1.76 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.35-2.72 · n=2 | 4.10-4.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.53-1.13 · n=2 | 2.49-1.01 · n=2 | 2.81-2.81 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.07-0.03 · n=363 | 5.72-0.02 · n=363 | 6.26-0.04 · n=364 | 6.38-0.06 · n=364 | 6.63-0.06 · n=364 | 6.63-0.06 · n=364 | 6.74-0.07 · n=364 | 6.93-0.07 · n=364 | 7.17-0.10 · n=364 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences