CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)

fourcastnet_ifs

source aiwp · product FOUR · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, FOUR_v200, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initFOUR_v200
Window
all available history
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL3.37−2.40 · n=2373.15−1.87 · n=2363.23−1.82 · n=2353.42−1.91 · n=2343.69−2.08 · n=2333.93−2.09 · n=2324.18−1.93 · n=2304.62−2.28 · n=2295.04−2.19 · n=2285.34−2.16 · n=227KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS2.68−0.54 · n=2372.88−0.43 · n=2363.09−0.57 · n=2353.21−0.60 · n=2343.50−0.66 · n=2333.94−0.62 · n=2324.32−0.65 · n=2314.82−0.66 · n=2305.33−0.61 · n=2295.73−0.70 · n=228KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS3.16−2.13 · n=2273.15−1.61 · n=2263.37−1.58 · n=2253.62−1.66 · n=2234.06−1.81 · n=2224.55−2.09 · n=2215.05−2.20 · n=2195.59−2.39 · n=2185.84−2.51 · n=2176.71−2.62 · n=217KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA3.08−1.92 · n=2373.01−1.24 · n=2363.23−1.15 · n=2353.52−1.15 · n=2344.02−1.27 · n=2334.42−1.50 · n=2324.84−1.69 · n=2305.41−1.85 · n=2295.99−1.65 · n=2286.88−1.77 · n=227KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN3.71−1.36 · n=2374.02−1.99 · n=2364.36−2.33 · n=2354.65−2.37 · n=2345.12−2.21 · n=2335.82−2.18 · n=2316.33−2.37 · n=2307.22−2.52 · n=2298.35−3.26 · n=229—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW2.62−1.78 · n=2352.91−1.93 · n=2343.24−2.09 · n=2333.53−2.19 · n=2313.97−2.46 · n=2314.53−2.47 · n=2294.91−2.64 · n=2285.38−2.66 · n=2276.05−2.72 · n=2276.73−2.79 · n=225KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR3.19−2.46 · n=2363.41−2.21 · n=2353.56−2.14 · n=2343.77−2.15 · n=2334.27−2.26 · n=2324.66−2.46 · n=2315.25−2.65 · n=2295.75−2.82 · n=2286.21−2.72 · n=2277.08−2.82 · n=226KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.48−1.00 · n=2382.65−1.11 · n=2372.83−1.29 · n=2362.93−1.43 · n=2353.21−1.59 · n=2343.55−1.54 · n=2333.85−1.50 · n=2314.04−1.47 · n=2304.53−1.38 · n=2294.88−1.44 · n=228KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS3.60−3.25 · n=2373.65−3.16 · n=2363.78−3.29 · n=2363.95−3.37 · n=2354.14−3.36 · n=2344.52−3.47 · n=2324.85−3.53 · n=2315.62−3.90 · n=2306.07−4.02 · n=229—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX2.62−0.95 · n=2382.91−1.26 · n=2373.09−1.55 · n=2363.33−1.77 · n=2353.56−1.94 · n=2343.81−2.19 · n=2324.06−2.52 · n=2314.43−2.96 · n=2304.71−3.26 · n=229—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA2.16−0.36 · n=2372.26−0.07 · n=2352.35−0.16 · n=2342.40−0.26 · n=2332.46−0.43 · n=2322.60−0.48 · n=2312.72−0.45 · n=2292.95−0.50 · n=2293.07−0.56 · n=2273.12−0.36 · n=226KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP3.28−2.65 · n=2383.59−2.78 · n=2373.83−3.03 · n=2364.43−3.41 · n=2355.03−3.46 · n=2345.42−3.16 · n=2336.06−3.08 · n=2326.87−3.13 · n=2317.55−3.25 · n=2308.01−3.26 · n=229KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY2.22−0.70 · n=2382.43−0.84 · n=2372.58−1.06 · n=2362.72−1.38 · n=2352.98−1.62 · n=2343.23−1.56 · n=2333.44−1.26 · n=2313.56−1.42 · n=2303.84−1.17 · n=2294.20−1.21 · n=228KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC2.72−1.66 · n=2362.88−1.36 · n=2353.00−1.26 · n=2343.30−1.28 · n=2333.83−1.39 · n=2324.25−1.58 · n=2314.83−1.82 · n=2305.30−1.98 · n=2295.82−1.81 · n=2286.67−1.92 · n=227KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC2.75−0.16 · n=2373.25−0.23 · n=2363.51−0.45 · n=2353.78−0.64 · n=2344.46−0.98 · n=2335.03−0.94 · n=2325.62−1.13 · n=2306.26−1.14 · n=2296.70−1.39 · n=2287.71−1.49 · n=227KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD2.82−1.71 · n=2383.08−1.50 · n=2373.34−1.53 · n=2363.69−1.67 · n=2354.28−1.96 · n=2344.89−2.00 · n=2335.38−2.00 · n=2316.13−1.86 · n=2306.70−1.89 · n=2297.05−1.92 · n=228KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL3.40−2.77 · n=2383.30−2.14 · n=2373.42−2.01 · n=2363.73−2.02 · n=2354.24−2.08 · n=2344.63−2.33 · n=2335.09−2.46 · n=2315.63−2.55 · n=2306.08−2.40 · n=2296.84−2.52 · n=228KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX4.28−3.44 · n=2384.41−3.45 · n=2374.51−3.57 · n=2364.72−3.83 · n=2354.94−3.87 · n=2345.21−3.97 · n=2325.56−4.21 · n=2316.00−4.64 · n=2306.68−5.00 · n=229—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN2.70−1.29 · n=2372.95−1.26 · n=2363.12−1.45 · n=2353.28−1.62 · n=2343.50−1.79 · n=2333.74−2.00 · n=2313.91−2.29 · n=2304.27−2.72 · n=2294.50−3.01 · n=228—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT2.43−0.81 · n=2382.62−0.73 · n=2372.82−0.85 · n=2362.89−0.92 · n=2353.17−0.99 · n=2343.45−0.92 · n=2333.77−0.93 · n=2324.24−0.91 · n=2314.69−0.85 · n=2305.16−0.99 · n=229KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA2.69−0.27 · n=2382.84−0.05 · n=2373.07−0.14 · n=2363.34−0.10 · n=2353.63−0.27 · n=2343.90−0.55 · n=2324.42−0.88 · n=2314.96−1.20 · n=2305.08−1.30 · n=229—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.81−1.83 · n=2382.77−1.52 · n=2372.83−1.36 · n=2363.00−1.41 · n=2353.19−1.61 · n=2343.51−1.92 · n=2323.78−2.20 · n=2313.85−2.28 · n=2304.04−2.33 · n=229—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN2.25+0.05 · n=2332.84+0.64 · n=2323.09+0.75 · n=2313.42+0.72 · n=2303.92+0.68 · n=2294.40+0.43 · n=2284.96+0.25 · n=2265.42+0.12 · n=2255.91+0.26 · n=2246.63+0.12 · n=223KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 4 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.14−0.63 · n=2372.40−0.43 · n=2362.67−0.47 · n=2352.90−0.70 · n=2343.25−0.89 · n=2333.44−1.00 · n=2323.97−1.11 · n=2304.48−1.51 · n=2294.74−1.33 · n=2285.39−1.48 · n=227KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS2.63−1.87 · n=2372.99−2.06 · n=2363.28−2.21 · n=2353.26−2.18 · n=2343.55−2.30 · n=2333.95−2.39 · n=2324.48−2.58 · n=2315.03−2.70 · n=2305.58−2.82 · n=2296.12−2.97 · n=228KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS3.39−2.34 · n=2273.43−2.01 · n=2263.79−2.10 · n=2254.17−2.29 · n=2234.77−2.38 · n=2225.27−2.63 · n=2215.83−2.89 · n=2196.23−3.05 · n=2186.51−3.23 · n=2177.50−3.35 · n=217KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.79−1.55 · n=2372.94−1.16 · n=2363.25−1.15 · n=2353.55−1.22 · n=2344.23−1.33 · n=2334.60−1.52 · n=2325.17−1.97 · n=2306.07−1.97 · n=2296.22−1.89 · n=2287.19−2.07 · n=227KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN3.19−1.77 · n=2373.68−2.54 · n=2364.18−3.04 · n=2354.35−3.05 · n=2344.91−2.84 · n=2335.81−2.82 · n=2316.62−3.17 · n=2307.59−3.25 · n=2298.92−4.13 · n=229—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW2.75−2.20 · n=2353.09−2.52 · n=2343.42−2.73 · n=2333.73−2.82 · n=2314.12−3.01 · n=2314.79−3.24 · n=2295.23−3.46 · n=2285.76−3.72 · n=2276.44−3.96 · n=2276.99−4.07 · n=225KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR3.70−3.12 · n=2363.86−3.01 · n=2353.99−3.05 · n=2344.21−3.09 · n=2334.78−3.10 · n=2325.27−3.33 · n=2316.05−3.83 · n=2296.42−3.74 · n=2286.70−3.81 · n=2277.81−3.93 · n=226KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH2.54−1.64 · n=2382.83−1.93 · n=2373.17−2.09 · n=2363.19−2.23 · n=2353.53−2.43 · n=2343.75−2.41 · n=2333.96−2.47 · n=2314.18−2.65 · n=2304.79−2.57 · n=2295.22−2.77 · n=228KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS2.71−2.20 · n=2372.84−2.19 · n=2363.07−2.38 · n=2363.25−2.43 · n=2353.56−2.43 · n=2344.03−2.58 · n=2324.59−2.77 · n=2315.71−3.36 · n=2306.07−3.28 · n=229—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX2.72−1.01 · n=2383.07−1.36 · n=2373.30−1.66 · n=2363.50−1.88 · n=2353.75−2.08 · n=2344.02−2.44 · n=2324.44−2.88 · n=2314.83−3.31 · n=2305.14−3.50 · n=229—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA2.91−2.35 · n=2372.99−2.29 · n=2353.16−2.44 · n=2343.34−2.48 · n=2333.45−2.68 · n=2323.58−2.67 · n=2313.68−2.56 · n=2293.90−2.59 · n=2293.86−2.65 · n=2273.85−2.46 · n=226KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP2.97−2.40 · n=2383.34−2.59 · n=2373.78−3.10 · n=2364.40−3.44 · n=2355.15−3.51 · n=2345.58−3.23 · n=2336.18−2.90 · n=2326.97−3.00 · n=2317.66−3.45 · n=2308.11−3.50 · n=229KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY2.46−1.77 · n=2382.63−1.95 · n=2372.82−2.19 · n=2363.10−2.59 · n=2353.49−2.85 · n=2343.78−2.88 · n=2333.79−2.57 · n=2313.94−2.89 · n=2304.16−2.56 · n=2294.65−2.79 · n=228KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC2.65−1.68 · n=2362.92−1.52 · n=2353.02−1.57 · n=2343.41−1.64 · n=2334.04−1.64 · n=2324.61−1.89 · n=2315.14−2.35 · n=2305.56−2.28 · n=2295.87−2.27 · n=2286.95−2.40 · n=227KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC2.72−1.34 · n=2373.44−1.64 · n=2363.74−1.95 · n=2354.08−2.06 · n=2344.95−2.58 · n=2335.62−2.54 · n=2325.90−2.95 · n=2306.71−3.23 · n=2297.12−3.60 · n=2287.92−3.69 · n=227KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD3.34−2.91 · n=2383.71−2.86 · n=2373.97−2.98 · n=2364.34−3.20 · n=2355.08−3.56 · n=2345.66−3.62 · n=2336.18−3.73 · n=2316.68−3.50 · n=2307.15−3.61 · n=2297.48−3.75 · n=228KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL3.49−2.99 · n=2383.51−2.59 · n=2373.66−2.60 · n=2363.92−2.67 · n=2354.49−2.63 · n=2345.01−2.92 · n=2335.57−3.31 · n=2316.13−3.14 · n=2306.24−3.15 · n=2297.42−3.36 · n=228KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX2.60−2.21 · n=2382.79−2.22 · n=2373.02−2.32 · n=2363.30−2.54 · n=2353.63−2.51 · n=2343.95−2.59 · n=2324.51−2.88 · n=2315.09−3.48 · n=2305.99−3.86 · n=229—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN2.71−2.24 · n=2372.96−2.26 · n=2363.25−2.49 · n=2353.52−2.70 · n=2343.86−2.89 · n=2334.20−3.15 · n=2314.54−3.52 · n=2304.97−4.00 · n=2295.27−4.23 · n=228—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT2.39−1.33 · n=2382.78−1.49 · n=2373.00−1.63 · n=2363.09−1.65 · n=2353.44−1.78 · n=2343.73−1.81 · n=2334.20−1.96 · n=2324.60−2.03 · n=2315.04−2.17 · n=2305.61−2.32 · n=229KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA2.35+0.01 · n=2382.68+0.10 · n=2372.97+0.04 · n=2363.40+0.04 · n=2353.89−0.14 · n=2344.37−0.53 · n=2325.16−0.88 · n=2315.74−1.18 · n=2305.77−1.16 · n=229—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO2.87−1.65 · n=2383.22−1.36 · n=2373.41−1.20 · n=2363.66−1.30 · n=2354.03−1.54 · n=2344.52−1.98 · n=2324.90−2.39 · n=2314.86−2.28 · n=2305.13−2.36 · n=229—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN2.38−0.76 · n=2332.81−0.42 · n=2323.00−0.49 · n=2313.41−0.60 · n=2304.01−0.48 · n=2294.64−0.77 · n=2285.19−1.25 · n=2265.64−1.08 · n=2256.01−1.12 · n=2246.93−1.31 · n=223KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL3.67−3.42 · n=2373.12−2.67 · n=2363.04−2.55 · n=2353.26−2.54 · n=2343.51−2.78 · n=2333.74−2.72 · n=2323.86−2.31 · n=2304.29−2.63 · n=2294.68−2.56 · n=2284.78−2.37 · n=227KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS3.00+0.22 · n=2373.03+0.46 · n=2363.12+0.36 · n=2353.23+0.32 · n=2343.38+0.24 · n=2334.06+0.51 · n=2324.24+0.63 · n=2314.76+0.78 · n=2305.23+0.95 · n=2295.50+0.97 · n=228KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS2.71−1.96 · n=2272.64−1.19 · n=2262.66−1.03 · n=2252.80−1.02 · n=2233.17−1.21 · n=2223.58−1.45 · n=2214.15−1.47 · n=2194.78−1.69 · n=2184.97−1.90 · n=2175.65−1.88 · n=217KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA2.84−2.04 · n=2372.61−1.11 · n=2362.86−0.99 · n=2353.04−0.91 · n=2343.56−1.02 · n=2333.96−1.26 · n=2324.32−1.25 · n=2304.86−1.51 · n=2295.59−1.23 · n=2286.29−1.30 · n=227KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN3.50−1.61 · n=2373.81−2.14 · n=2363.92−2.36 · n=2354.23−2.54 · n=2344.55−2.53 · n=2334.93−2.60 · n=2315.40−2.51 · n=2306.07−2.81 · n=2296.65−3.25 · n=229—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW2.44−1.63 · n=2352.58−1.68 · n=2342.92−1.80 · n=2333.07−1.91 · n=2313.38−2.15 · n=2313.90−2.00 · n=2294.07−1.98 · n=2284.59−1.83 · n=2275.27−1.73 · n=2276.03−1.77 · n=225KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR2.27−1.50 · n=2362.67−1.13 · n=2352.77−0.95 · n=2342.92−0.91 · n=2333.36−1.09 · n=2323.64−1.24 · n=2313.95−1.13 · n=2294.67−1.49 · n=2285.37−1.37 · n=2276.08−1.34 · n=226KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH2.21−0.39 · n=2382.36−0.42 · n=2372.45−0.65 · n=2362.54−0.78 · n=2352.87−0.97 · n=2343.31−0.82 · n=2333.65−0.59 · n=2313.79−0.48 · n=2304.31−0.19 · n=2294.50−0.25 · n=228KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS4.55−4.48 · n=2374.43−4.25 · n=2364.52−4.26 · n=2364.63−4.39 · n=2354.64−4.31 · n=2344.91−4.38 · n=2325.08−4.38 · n=2315.50−4.50 · n=2306.09−4.77 · n=229—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX1.99−0.87 · n=2382.24−1.16 · n=2372.43−1.41 · n=2362.65−1.67 · n=2352.81−1.80 · n=2343.04−1.91 · n=2323.23−2.10 · n=2313.46−2.46 · n=2303.84−2.89 · n=229—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA2.22+1.00 · n=2372.43+1.60 · n=2352.43+1.55 · n=2342.35+1.40 · n=2332.37+1.23 · n=2322.51+1.10 · n=2312.63+1.11 · n=2292.79+1.04 · n=2293.00+0.95 · n=2273.10+1.23 · n=226KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP3.25−3.04 · n=2383.42−3.14 · n=2373.45−3.14 · n=2364.11−3.53 · n=2354.67−3.63 · n=2344.77−3.24 · n=2335.42−3.31 · n=2326.15−3.30 · n=2317.19−3.33 · n=2307.40−3.18 · n=229KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY2.00+0.19 · n=2382.28+0.10 · n=2372.34−0.01 · n=2362.33−0.31 · n=2352.42−0.54 · n=2342.68−0.43 · n=2333.02−0.02 · n=2313.24−0.08 · n=2303.50+0.15 · n=2293.73+0.22 · n=228KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC2.40−1.50 · n=2362.50−1.05 · n=2352.53−0.81 · n=2342.73−0.75 · n=2333.21−0.93 · n=2323.48−1.07 · n=2314.00−1.14 · n=2304.54−1.44 · n=2295.32−1.26 · n=2286.11−1.24 · n=227KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC2.64+0.70 · n=2372.91+0.71 · n=2363.12+0.65 · n=2353.19+0.40 · n=2343.80+0.17 · n=2334.26+0.25 · n=2324.79+0.32 · n=2305.47+0.49 · n=2295.71+0.41 · n=2287.03+0.35 · n=227KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD2.17−0.90 · n=2382.31−0.54 · n=2372.45−0.44 · n=2362.81−0.64 · n=2353.13−0.82 · n=2343.85−0.78 · n=2334.20−0.84 · n=2315.09−0.74 · n=2305.77−0.71 · n=2295.88−0.53 · n=228KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL2.88−2.29 · n=2382.72−1.43 · n=2372.76−1.19 · n=2362.92−1.12 · n=2353.42−1.28 · n=2343.76−1.46 · n=2334.22−1.31 · n=2314.78−1.63 · n=2305.53−1.40 · n=2296.00−1.43 · n=228KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX5.71−5.46 · n=2385.66−5.45 · n=2375.71−5.54 · n=2365.91−5.76 · n=2356.12−5.96 · n=2346.19−5.96 · n=2326.44−6.23 · n=2316.67−6.46 · n=2307.35−6.86 · n=229—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN3.13−0.45 · n=2373.36−0.28 · n=2363.41−0.41 · n=2353.40−0.52 · n=2343.45−0.62 · n=2333.49−0.75 · n=2313.42−0.97 · n=2303.59−1.27 · n=2293.90−1.63 · n=228—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT2.46−1.36 · n=2382.44−1.15 · n=2372.58−1.24 · n=2362.66−1.36 · n=2352.93−1.36 · n=2343.22−1.13 · n=2333.33−0.98 · n=2323.82−0.85 · n=2314.35−0.67 · n=2304.69−0.72 · n=229KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA2.64−1.70 · n=2382.26−1.17 · n=2372.42−1.27 · n=2362.52−1.15 · n=2352.84−1.27 · n=2343.04−1.49 · n=2323.44−1.79 · n=2313.95−2.09 · n=2304.16−2.38 · n=229—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO3.01−2.17 · n=2382.55−1.81 · n=2372.43−1.58 · n=2362.51−1.53 · n=2352.67−1.68 · n=2342.76−1.84 · n=2322.98−2.05 · n=2313.18−2.29 · n=2303.31−2.32 · n=229—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN2.08+0.97 · n=2332.88+1.80 · n=2323.12+2.04 · n=2313.36+2.07 · n=2303.78+1.91 · n=2294.11+1.74 · n=2284.51+1.86 · n=2265.04+1.50 · n=2255.72+1.67 · n=2246.27+1.61 · n=223KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL4.15−3.89 · n=2384.14−3.70 · n=2374.35−3.76 · n=2364.54−3.97 · n=2354.87−4.16 · n=2345.03−4.29 · n=2335.41−4.36 · n=2326.07−4.78 · n=2316.25−4.59 · n=2306.70−4.75 · n=229KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS5.79−5.62 · n=2386.12−5.83 · n=2376.34−5.95 · n=2366.27−5.90 · n=2356.48−6.01 · n=2346.78−6.11 · n=2337.22−6.28 · n=2327.82−6.43 · n=2318.05−6.51 · n=2308.41−6.67 · n=229KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS4.94−4.51 · n=2374.85−4.16 · n=2365.12−4.27 · n=2355.43−4.36 · n=2345.74−4.44 · n=2336.39−4.76 · n=2326.95−5.10 · n=2317.31−5.04 · n=2307.42−5.11 · n=2298.45−5.35 · n=228KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA4.49−4.18 · n=2384.44−3.78 · n=2374.70−3.75 · n=2364.97−3.83 · n=2355.58−3.97 · n=2345.89−4.19 · n=2336.38−4.66 · n=2327.25−4.67 · n=2317.38−4.66 · n=2308.35−4.84 · n=229KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN6.14−6.03 · n=2386.95−6.80 · n=2377.49−7.31 · n=2367.54−7.25 · n=2357.80−7.09 · n=2348.33−7.02 · n=2339.14−7.33 · n=2329.72−7.40 · n=23111.10−8.30 · n=230—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW5.57−5.46 · n=2385.90−5.78 · n=2376.20−5.97 · n=2366.37−6.06 · n=2356.70−6.29 · n=2347.20−6.44 · n=2337.65−6.75 · n=2328.27−6.93 · n=2318.74−7.14 · n=2309.24−7.24 · n=229KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR5.53−5.41 · n=2385.48−5.29 · n=2375.62−5.34 · n=2365.77−5.37 · n=2356.23−5.34 · n=2346.69−5.62 · n=2337.35−6.13 · n=2327.68−6.03 · n=2317.95−6.11 · n=2309.00−6.16 · n=229KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH5.45−5.32 · n=2385.74−5.60 · n=2376.04−5.78 · n=2366.08−5.83 · n=2356.35−6.03 · n=2346.44−6.02 · n=2336.56−6.06 · n=2326.88−6.23 · n=2317.18−6.15 · n=2307.58−6.35 · n=229KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS3.80−3.62 · n=2383.81−3.58 · n=2373.99−3.76 · n=2364.21−3.84 · n=2354.48−3.82 · n=2344.84−3.95 · n=2335.25−4.12 · n=2326.30−4.74 · n=2316.61−4.62 · n=230—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX4.59−4.09 · n=2384.94−4.42 · n=2375.29−4.75 · n=2365.53−4.97 · n=2355.75−5.21 · n=2346.12−5.56 · n=2336.52−5.99 · n=2327.02−6.42 · n=2317.24−6.61 · n=230—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA4.71−4.66 · n=2384.72−4.66 · n=2374.86−4.77 · n=2364.95−4.84 · n=2355.13−5.04 · n=2345.20−5.04 · n=2335.20−4.92 · n=2325.35−4.92 · n=2315.36−4.97 · n=2305.33−4.79 · n=229KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP5.01−4.93 · n=2385.32−5.12 · n=2375.80−5.60 · n=2366.33−5.96 · n=2356.78−6.03 · n=2347.05−5.78 · n=2337.52−5.46 · n=2328.17−5.56 · n=2318.73−6.00 · n=2309.28−6.05 · n=229KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY4.62−4.51 · n=2384.86−4.70 · n=2375.09−4.96 · n=2365.42−5.33 · n=2355.79−5.63 · n=2345.85−5.62 · n=2335.75−5.33 · n=2325.79−5.59 · n=2315.90−5.27 · n=2306.48−5.47 · n=229KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC3.98−3.70 · n=2383.98−3.50 · n=2374.04−3.56 · n=2364.35−3.62 · n=2354.88−3.58 · n=2345.47−3.86 · n=2336.01−4.35 · n=2326.36−4.30 · n=2316.68−4.34 · n=2307.83−4.43 · n=229KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC5.47−5.14 · n=2386.07−5.43 · n=2376.41−5.72 · n=2366.75−5.86 · n=2357.38−6.39 · n=2347.72−6.31 · n=2338.31−6.73 · n=2329.03−6.93 · n=2319.42−7.32 · n=23010.10−7.34 · n=229KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD5.38−5.29 · n=2385.57−5.28 · n=2375.75−5.36 · n=2366.03−5.63 · n=2356.54−5.98 · n=2346.93−6.05 · n=2337.57−6.14 · n=2328.07−5.92 · n=2318.34−5.93 · n=2308.58−6.10 · n=229KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL5.56−5.39 · n=2385.32−4.98 · n=2375.39−4.99 · n=2365.60−5.07 · n=2356.16−5.04 · n=2346.49−5.31 · n=2336.98−5.74 · n=2327.50−5.59 · n=2317.59−5.64 · n=2308.62−5.85 · n=229KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX4.24−4.17 · n=2384.37−4.21 · n=2374.47−4.30 · n=2364.75−4.53 · n=2354.91−4.50 · n=2345.04−4.57 · n=2335.68−4.89 · n=2326.36−5.47 · n=2317.10−5.87 · n=230—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN4.89−4.88 · n=2385.00−4.92 · n=2375.29−5.16 · n=2365.57−5.37 · n=2355.81−5.58 · n=2346.10−5.85 · n=2336.46−6.23 · n=2326.99−6.72 · n=2317.27−6.93 · n=230—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT4.91−4.65 · n=2385.27−4.87 · n=2375.39−4.94 · n=2365.47−4.98 · n=2355.64−5.07 · n=2345.78−5.13 · n=2336.12−5.24 · n=2326.64−5.35 · n=2316.94−5.50 · n=2307.30−5.63 · n=229KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA2.69−1.43 · n=2383.01−1.33 · n=2373.32−1.41 · n=2363.76−1.39 · n=2354.31−1.59 · n=2344.78−1.99 · n=2335.60−2.34 · n=2326.15−2.66 · n=2316.27−2.61 · n=230—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO4.87−4.70 · n=2384.80−4.46 · n=2374.75−4.30 · n=2364.96−4.35 · n=2355.27−4.60 · n=2345.72−5.02 · n=2336.26−5.48 · n=2326.15−5.34 · n=2316.29−5.44 · n=230—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN3.65−3.20 · n=2383.70−2.84 · n=2373.90−2.90 · n=2364.19−3.00 · n=2354.84−2.91 · n=2345.30−3.18 · n=2335.90−3.66 · n=2326.46−3.51 · n=2316.67−3.59 · n=2307.82−3.72 · n=229KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.81−1.72 · n=2372.42−1.01 · n=2362.52−0.87 · n=2352.74−0.87 · n=2352.85−1.10 · n=2333.14−1.06 · n=2323.49−0.64 · n=2313.89−0.98 · n=2304.41−0.87 · n=2294.50−0.66 · n=228KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS3.96+2.73 · n=2384.06+2.97 · n=2374.09+2.86 · n=2364.14+2.77 · n=2354.31+2.68 · n=2344.83+2.94 · n=2335.10+3.01 · n=2325.71+3.19 · n=2316.11+3.35 · n=2306.44+3.37 · n=229KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS1.98+0.16 · n=2372.30+0.94 · n=2362.42+1.09 · n=2352.64+0.98 · n=2342.96+0.88 · n=2333.31+0.67 · n=2323.82+0.53 · n=2314.45+0.52 · n=2304.57+0.37 · n=2295.38+0.36 · n=228KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA2.14+0.11 · n=2382.38+1.07 · n=2372.71+1.26 · n=2362.89+1.28 · n=2353.37+1.14 · n=2343.67+0.92 · n=2334.17+0.91 · n=2324.65+0.63 · n=2315.33+0.87 · n=2306.12+0.82 · n=229KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN3.47+1.83 · n=2383.12+1.27 · n=2373.14+1.06 · n=2363.34+0.92 · n=2353.73+0.97 · n=2344.21+0.90 · n=2334.80+1.00 · n=2325.31+0.69 · n=2315.69+0.24 · n=230—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW2.39+0.16 · n=2382.49+0.12 · n=2372.67−0.02 · n=2362.77−0.19 · n=2352.96−0.43 · n=2343.44−0.29 · n=2333.73−0.30 · n=2324.40−0.13 · n=2315.10−0.03 · n=2305.71−0.11 · n=229KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.26+1.07 · n=2382.71+1.48 · n=2372.86+1.70 · n=2362.98+1.72 · n=2353.27+1.52 · n=2343.74+1.44 · n=2333.97+1.38 · n=2324.75+1.13 · n=2315.32+1.28 · n=2306.09+1.32 · n=229KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH2.59+1.18 · n=2382.73+1.16 · n=2372.71+0.96 · n=2362.77+0.79 · n=2352.83+0.56 · n=2343.33+0.71 · n=2333.82+0.91 · n=2324.09+1.06 · n=2314.67+1.36 · n=2305.00+1.28 · n=229KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS3.05−2.65 · n=2383.14−2.42 · n=2373.26−2.43 · n=2363.32−2.53 · n=2353.41−2.47 · n=2343.72−2.49 · n=2333.91−2.52 · n=2324.42−2.70 · n=2314.97−2.98 · n=230—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX2.12+0.76 · n=2382.18+0.48 · n=2372.21+0.23 · n=2362.27−0.02 · n=2352.38−0.14 · n=2342.61−0.26 · n=2332.71−0.44 · n=2322.78−0.79 · n=2313.09−1.23 · n=230—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA3.23+2.92 · n=2383.71+3.52 · n=2373.66+3.47 · n=2363.50+3.30 · n=2353.43+3.15 · n=2343.45+3.05 · n=2333.49+3.03 · n=2323.58+2.94 · n=2313.62+2.83 · n=2303.79+3.12 · n=229KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP2.71−1.12 · n=2382.74−1.20 · n=2372.70−1.23 · n=2363.30−1.58 · n=2353.89−1.71 · n=2344.14−1.29 · n=2334.94−1.39 · n=2325.79−1.35 · n=2316.76−1.32 · n=2306.88−1.21 · n=229KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY2.82+2.15 · n=2382.88+2.03 · n=2372.88+1.90 · n=2362.68+1.56 · n=2352.69+1.35 · n=2343.03+1.47 · n=2333.51+1.87 · n=2323.72+1.84 · n=2314.02+2.05 · n=2304.36+2.09 · n=229KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.37+0.34 · n=2382.44+0.81 · n=2372.52+1.02 · n=2362.68+1.08 · n=2353.03+0.88 · n=2343.35+0.79 · n=2333.82+0.70 · n=2324.51+0.47 · n=2315.04+0.60 · n=2305.77+0.66 · n=229KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC3.82+3.18 · n=2383.98+3.16 · n=2374.09+3.09 · n=2363.99+2.80 · n=2354.28+2.58 · n=2344.64+2.68 · n=2335.12+2.66 · n=2325.94+2.89 · n=2316.11+2.74 · n=2307.12+2.65 · n=229KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD2.73+1.28 · n=2382.88+1.69 · n=2373.12+1.78 · n=2363.38+1.59 · n=2353.71+1.38 · n=2344.19+1.44 · n=2334.45+1.40 · n=2325.26+1.49 · n=2315.96+1.53 · n=2306.12+1.70 · n=229KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL2.22+0.03 · n=2382.49+0.90 · n=2372.62+1.15 · n=2362.79+1.19 · n=2353.24+1.02 · n=2343.55+0.88 · n=2334.03+0.94 · n=2324.72+0.67 · n=2315.30+0.86 · n=2306.10+0.85 · n=229KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX4.01−3.43 · n=2383.95−3.42 · n=2373.97−3.49 · n=2364.13−3.72 · n=2354.35−3.92 · n=2344.48−3.90 · n=2334.82−4.18 · n=2325.07−4.42 · n=2315.74−4.84 · n=230—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN3.48+1.13 · n=2383.63+1.29 · n=2373.71+1.17 · n=2363.68+1.05 · n=2353.77+0.94 · n=2343.76+0.80 · n=2333.63+0.59 · n=2323.67+0.28 · n=2313.79−0.07 · n=230—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT2.32+0.25 · n=2382.33+0.43 · n=2372.51+0.37 · n=2362.54+0.25 · n=2352.76+0.15 · n=2343.17+0.42 · n=2333.37+0.51 · n=2323.90+0.69 · n=2314.48+0.85 · n=2305.04+0.84 · n=229KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA2.22−0.07 · n=2381.95+0.44 · n=2372.04+0.37 · n=2362.25+0.46 · n=2352.44+0.38 · n=2342.66+0.15 · n=2333.03−0.14 · n=2323.42−0.47 · n=2313.63−0.77 · n=230—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO2.86−0.87 · n=2382.29−0.48 · n=2372.09−0.25 · n=2362.13−0.20 · n=2352.21−0.34 · n=2342.35−0.50 · n=2332.59−0.72 · n=2322.71−0.96 · n=2312.82−0.99 · n=230—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN4.12+3.90 · n=2384.99+4.75 · n=2375.20+5.00 · n=2365.26+5.03 · n=2355.40+4.88 · n=2345.81+4.77 · n=2335.89+4.81 · n=2326.47+4.56 · n=2316.84+4.69 · n=2307.36+4.66 · n=229KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · FOUR · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.