ALL — All stations (mean of daily station errors)
Cross-station aggregate: the daily error series is first averaged over the stations that have a value that day, then scored and bootstrapped over days exactly like a single station.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.41-3.06 · n=30 | 3.46-3.08 · n=29 | 3.62-3.16 · n=28 | 3.60-3.04 · n=27 | 3.68-3.16 · n=26 | 3.90-3.22 · n=25 | 4.17-3.56 · n=24 | 4.38-3.92 · n=23 | 4.78-4.20 · n=22 | 5.01-4.10 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.80-5.80 · n=2 | 6.29-6.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 5.08-5.04 · n=3 | 5.28-5.27 · n=2 | 5.03-4.86 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.36-4.18 · n=2 | 3.90-3.85 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.59-4.42 · n=3 | 4.00-3.60 · n=2 | 3.67-3.49 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.65-1.12 · n=30 | 2.93-1.06 · n=29 | 3.07-1.04 · n=28 | 3.20-0.81 · n=27 | 3.26-1.03 · n=26 | 3.56-1.23 · n=25 | 3.70-1.08 · n=24 | 3.92-1.48 · n=23 | 4.34-1.57 · n=22 | 4.67-1.02 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.60-5.60 · n=2 | 5.95-5.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.57-4.49 · n=28 | 4.91-4.84 · n=27 | 5.09-4.97 · n=26 | 5.11-4.94 · n=25 | 5.32-5.05 · n=25 | 5.41-5.07 · n=25 | 5.66-5.34 · n=24 | 5.88-5.49 · n=23 | 6.41-5.66 · n=22 | 6.14-4.75 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.22-2.74 · n=25 | 3.56-2.83 · n=23 | 3.43-2.65 · n=23 | 3.60-2.51 · n=22 | 3.58-2.50 · n=20 | 3.69-2.55 · n=18 | 4.03-2.21 · n=19 | 3.64-2.35 · n=18 | 4.31-2.61 · n=17 | 4.25-1.41 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.74-3.07 · n=2 | 3.51-2.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.62-3.08 · n=3 | 4.09-3.37 · n=2 | 4.05-3.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.22-0.08 · n=90 | 4.34-0.15 · n=90 | 4.83-0.28 · n=90 | 5.04-0.38 · n=90 | 5.18-0.48 · n=90 | 5.32-0.58 · n=90 | 5.38-0.68 · n=90 | 5.43-0.80 · n=90 | 5.50-0.95 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.12+0.09 · n=30 | 2.23+0.24 · n=29 | 2.34+0.34 · n=28 | 2.37+0.39 · n=27 | 2.43+0.39 · n=26 | 2.51+0.42 · n=25 | 2.65+0.40 · n=24 | 2.74+0.36 · n=23 | 2.89+0.16 · n=22 | 3.40+0.93 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 2.69+0.41 · n=2 | 2.77-0.49 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.11+0.27 · n=3 | 2.24+0.24 · n=2 | 2.55-0.80 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.82-0.10 · n=2 | 2.43+0.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.38-0.37 · n=3 | 2.64+0.93 · n=2 | 2.58+0.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.67+1.59 · n=30 | 2.91+1.76 · n=29 | 2.95+1.74 · n=28 | 3.17+2.07 · n=27 | 3.26+1.93 · n=26 | 3.37+1.74 · n=25 | 3.54+1.77 · n=24 | 3.69+1.68 · n=23 | 3.85+1.52 · n=22 | 4.30+1.34 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.78+0.58 · n=2 | 2.74-0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.01+0.95 · n=28 | 2.09+0.71 · n=27 | 2.17+0.58 · n=26 | 2.25+0.65 · n=25 | 2.38+0.63 · n=25 | 2.47+0.52 · n=25 | 2.62+0.59 · n=24 | 2.91+0.45 · n=23 | 3.18+0.29 · n=22 | 3.52+0.74 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.06+1.02 · n=25 | 2.33+1.16 · n=23 | 2.53+1.32 · n=23 | 2.77+1.60 · n=22 | 2.84+1.71 · n=20 | 2.86+1.59 · n=18 | 2.98+1.74 · n=19 | 3.17+1.82 · n=18 | 3.47+1.85 · n=17 | 4.24+2.93 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.59+0.63 · n=2 | 2.37-0.17 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.07+0.60 · n=3 | 2.22+0.08 · n=2 | 2.38-0.77 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.43-0.09 · n=90 | 3.33-0.19 · n=90 | 3.69-0.31 · n=90 | 3.80-0.42 · n=90 | 3.92-0.52 · n=90 | 4.13-0.58 · n=90 | 4.24-0.66 · n=90 | 4.32-0.75 · n=90 | 4.46-0.87 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 3.08-3.08 · n=29 | 6.29-6.29 · n=1 | 5.27-5.27 · n=2 | 3.85-3.85 · n=1 | 3.60-3.60 · n=2 | 1.17-1.06 · n=29 | 5.95-5.95 · n=1 | 4.84-4.84 · n=27 | 2.83-2.83 · n=23 | 2.72-2.72 · n=1 | 3.37-3.37 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58-4.58 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences