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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

All stations (mean of daily station errors) · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

ALL · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.69 [3.43, 3.93]0.68-2.55 [-2.91, -2.07]4.46 [4.11, 4.66]12% [9%, 15%]27%46%+0.03+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.69 [3.37, 3.94]0.68-2.55 [-3.03, -2.01]4.46 [4.01, 4.65]12% [8%, 15%]27%46%+0.03+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.69 [3.36, 3.98]0.68-2.55 [-3.05, -1.96]4.46 [4.01, 4.69]12% [8%, 15%]27%46%+0.03+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.69 [3.38, 3.94]0.68-2.55 [-3.04, -1.95]4.46 [4.00, 4.66]12% [8%, 15%]27%46%+0.03+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC3.93 [3.66, 4.11]0.79-2.59 [-3.11, -1.93]4.78 [4.37, 4.99]11% [8%, 13%]26%43%-0.03+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC3.93 [3.62, 4.10]0.79-2.59 [-3.13, -1.88]4.78 [4.24, 4.99]11% [8%, 13%]26%43%-0.03+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC3.93 [3.62, 4.14]0.79-2.59 [-3.14, -1.85]4.78 [4.26, 5.03]11% [8%, 13%]26%43%-0.03+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC3.93 [3.60, 4.11]0.79-2.59 [-3.13, -1.85]4.78 [4.23, 5.02]11% [8%, 14%]26%43%-0.03+0.432026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC3.73 [3.60, 3.86]0.69-2.64 [-3.13, -2.25]4.53 [4.34, 4.70]11% [9%, 14%]28%45%+0.03+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC3.73 [3.54, 3.86]0.69-2.64 [-3.22, -2.25]4.53 [4.25, 4.72]11% [9%, 14%]28%45%+0.03+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC3.73 [3.52, 3.89]0.69-2.64 [-3.22, -2.23]4.53 [4.24, 4.74]11% [8%, 15%]28%45%+0.03+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 2 QC3.73 [3.54, 3.86]0.69-2.64 [-3.21, -2.21]4.53 [4.24, 4.72]11% [9%, 14%]28%45%+0.03+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 2 QC3.84 [3.66, 3.99]0.70-2.65 [-3.19, -2.20]4.75 [4.48, 4.97]15% [13%, 18%]29%44%+0.00+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 2 QC3.84 [3.61, 4.01]0.70-2.65 [-3.31, -2.19]4.75 [4.39, 4.99]15% [13%, 20%]29%44%+0.00+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 2 QC3.84 [3.54, 4.03]0.70-2.65 [-3.31, -2.17]4.75 [4.33, 5.02]15% [13%, 20%]29%44%+0.00+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 2 QC3.84 [3.57, 4.01]0.70-2.65 [-3.27, -2.17]4.75 [4.33, 4.99]15% [13%, 20%]29%44%+0.00+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC2.86 [2.58, 3.12]0.73+1.59 [1.02, 2.06]3.80 [3.43, 4.10]26% [22%, 29%]47%63%+0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC2.86 [2.55, 3.14]0.73+1.59 [0.92, 2.11]3.80 [3.38, 4.12]26% [22%, 30%]47%63%+0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC2.86 [2.52, 3.16]0.73+1.59 [0.91, 2.13]3.80 [3.33, 4.13]26% [22%, 29%]47%63%+0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC2.86 [2.54, 3.13]0.73+1.59 [0.96, 2.10]3.80 [3.37, 4.12]26% [22%, 30%]47%63%+0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC3.02 [2.71, 3.29]0.74+1.66 [1.10, 2.15]4.04 [3.62, 4.35]26% [23%, 29%]45%60%+0.04+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC3.02 [2.65, 3.31]0.74+1.66 [1.02, 2.19]4.04 [3.54, 4.39]26% [22%, 29%]45%60%+0.04+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC3.02 [2.62, 3.32]0.74+1.66 [1.00, 2.21]4.04 [3.51, 4.39]26% [22%, 29%]45%60%+0.04+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC3.02 [2.65, 3.29]0.74+1.66 [1.04, 2.17]4.04 [3.51, 4.39]26% [22%, 29%]45%60%+0.04+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC2.81 [2.56, 3.03]0.76+1.38 [0.84, 1.85]3.66 [3.29, 3.95]24% [21%, 28%]48%61%+0.11+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC2.81 [2.50, 3.04]0.76+1.38 [0.77, 1.89]3.66 [3.23, 3.97]24% [21%, 28%]48%61%+0.11+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC2.81 [2.49, 3.05]0.76+1.38 [0.76, 1.93]3.66 [3.20, 3.99]24% [20%, 28%]48%61%+0.11+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 2 QC2.81 [2.50, 3.07]0.76+1.38 [0.75, 1.92]3.66 [3.20, 4.01]24% [20%, 28%]48%61%+0.11+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 2 QC2.94 [2.60, 3.20]0.77+1.44 [0.89, 1.90]3.86 [3.39, 4.20]23% [19%, 28%]46%63%+0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 2 QC2.94 [2.56, 3.21]0.77+1.44 [0.83, 1.95]3.86 [3.33, 4.22]23% [19%, 29%]46%63%+0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 2 QC2.94 [2.53, 3.22]0.77+1.44 [0.81, 1.99]3.86 [3.28, 4.23]23% [19%, 29%]46%63%+0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 2 QC2.94 [2.53, 3.24]0.77+1.44 [0.80, 1.99]3.86 [3.27, 4.25]23% [18%, 29%]46%63%+0.07+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at ALL, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-06: -3.19 °F2026-08-12: -2.62 °F2026-08-13: -2.77 °F2026-08-14: -2.1 °F2026-08-16: -0.28 °F2026-08-17: -1.75 °F2026-08-19: -3.15 °F2026-08-20: -1.15 °F2026-08-21: -3.02 °F2026-08-22: -3.27 °F2026-08-23: -3.3 °F2026-08-24: -2.85 °F2026-08-25: -2.82 °F2026-08-26: -3.48 °F2026-08-27: -2.46 °F2026-08-28: -3.22 °F2026-08-29: -2.93 °F2026-08-30: -1.45 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.45
2026-08-29-2.93
2026-08-28-3.22
2026-08-27-2.46
2026-08-26-3.48
2026-08-25-2.82
2026-08-24-2.85
2026-08-23-3.30
2026-08-22-3.27
2026-08-21-3.02
2026-08-20-1.15
2026-08-19-3.15
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-1.75
2026-08-16-0.28
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-2.10
2026-08-13-2.77
2026-08-12-2.62
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-3.19

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at ALL, lead day 5-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 5 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 1 day-1.5 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.84 · P90 |e| 3.28 °F-50+5 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.007
-3.00-2.505
-2.50-2.002
-2.00-1.501
-1.50-1.002
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.001
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.55 -2.55

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.22 [-0.39, 0.08] no
NCEP GFS 18 +0.02 [-0.59, 0.81] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -1.90 [-2.29, -1.29] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.13 [-1.02, 0.27] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, ALL ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: ALL (All stations (mean of daily station errors)), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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