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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

All stations (mean of daily station errors) · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 1

ALL · pangu_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC4.09 [3.74, 4.43]0.21-3.37 [-3.58, -3.17]4.60 [4.13, 5.02]9% [4%, 13%]15%26%-0.32+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC4.09 [3.74, 4.43]0.21-3.37 [-3.58, -3.17]4.60 [4.13, 5.02]9% [4%, 13%]15%26%-0.32+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC4.09 [3.74, 4.43]0.21-3.37 [-3.58, -3.17]4.60 [4.13, 5.02]9% [4%, 13%]15%26%-0.32+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 2 QC4.09 [3.74, 4.43]0.21-3.37 [-3.58, -3.17]4.60 [4.13, 5.02]9% [4%, 13%]15%26%-0.32+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 2 QC4.27 [3.94, 4.60]0.20-3.53 [-3.73, -3.32]4.83 [4.34, 5.27]9% [4%, 13%]17%24%-0.38+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 2 QC4.27 [3.94, 4.60]0.20-3.53 [-3.73, -3.32]4.83 [4.34, 5.27]9% [4%, 13%]17%24%-0.38+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 2 QC4.27 [3.94, 4.60]0.20-3.53 [-3.73, -3.32]4.83 [4.34, 5.27]9% [4%, 13%]17%24%-0.38+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 2 QC4.27 [3.94, 4.60]0.20-3.53 [-3.73, -3.32]4.83 [4.34, 5.27]9% [4%, 13%]17%24%-0.38+0.692026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 2 QC3.70 [3.36, 4.03]0.41-3.03 [-3.44, -2.63]4.15 [3.71, 4.55]4% [4%, 4%]20%41%-0.20+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 2 QC3.70 [3.36, 4.03]0.41-3.03 [-3.44, -2.63]4.15 [3.71, 4.55]4% [4%, 4%]20%41%-0.20+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 2 QC3.70 [3.36, 4.03]0.41-3.03 [-3.44, -2.63]4.15 [3.71, 4.55]4% [4%, 4%]20%41%-0.20+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 2 QC3.70 [3.36, 4.03]0.41-3.03 [-3.44, -2.63]4.15 [3.71, 4.55]4% [4%, 4%]20%41%-0.20+0.392026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 2 QC3.86 [3.54, 4.17]0.43-3.20 [-3.63, -2.77]4.40 [3.90, 4.85]11% [4%, 17%]17%39%-0.25+0.362026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 2 QC3.86 [3.54, 4.17]0.43-3.20 [-3.63, -2.77]4.40 [3.90, 4.85]11% [4%, 17%]17%39%-0.25+0.362026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 2 QC3.86 [3.54, 4.17]0.43-3.20 [-3.63, -2.77]4.40 [3.90, 4.85]11% [4%, 17%]17%39%-0.25+0.362026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 2 QC3.86 [3.54, 4.17]0.43-3.20 [-3.63, -2.77]4.40 [3.90, 4.85]11% [4%, 17%]17%39%-0.25+0.362026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC2.22 [2.12, 2.32]1.19+0.08 [-1.11, 1.27]2.84 [2.74, 2.94]28% [22%, 35%]54%74%+0.14+0.262026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC2.22 [2.12, 2.32]1.19+0.08 [-1.11, 1.27]2.84 [2.74, 2.94]28% [22%, 35%]54%74%+0.14+0.262026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC2.22 [2.12, 2.32]1.19+0.08 [-1.11, 1.27]2.84 [2.74, 2.94]28% [22%, 35%]54%74%+0.14+0.262026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 2 QC2.22 [2.12, 2.32]1.19+0.08 [-1.11, 1.27]2.84 [2.74, 2.94]28% [22%, 35%]54%74%+0.14+0.262026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 2 QC2.36 [2.29, 2.44]1.17-0.01 [-1.18, 1.15]3.01 [2.94, 3.07]22% [17%, 26%]50%72%+0.09+0.272026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 2 QC2.36 [2.29, 2.44]1.17-0.01 [-1.18, 1.15]3.01 [2.94, 3.07]22% [17%, 26%]50%72%+0.09+0.272026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 2 QC2.36 [2.29, 2.44]1.17-0.01 [-1.18, 1.15]3.01 [2.94, 3.07]22% [17%, 26%]50%72%+0.09+0.272026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 2 QC2.36 [2.29, 2.44]1.17-0.01 [-1.18, 1.15]3.01 [2.94, 3.07]22% [17%, 26%]50%72%+0.09+0.272026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 2 QC2.24 [1.94, 2.54]0.66-0.23 [-0.89, 0.43]2.86 [2.62, 3.09]33% [13%, 52%]52%74%+0.14+0.592026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 2 QC2.24 [1.94, 2.54]0.66-0.23 [-0.89, 0.43]2.86 [2.62, 3.09]33% [13%, 52%]52%74%+0.14+0.592026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 2 QC2.24 [1.94, 2.54]0.66-0.23 [-0.89, 0.43]2.86 [2.62, 3.09]33% [13%, 52%]52%74%+0.14+0.592026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 2 QC2.24 [1.94, 2.54]0.66-0.23 [-0.89, 0.43]2.86 [2.62, 3.09]33% [13%, 52%]52%74%+0.14+0.592026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 2 QC2.25 [1.91, 2.60]0.64-0.28 [-0.92, 0.36]3.06 [2.74, 3.34]37% [17%, 57%]54%70%+0.13+0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 2 QC2.25 [1.91, 2.60]0.64-0.28 [-0.92, 0.36]3.06 [2.74, 3.34]37% [17%, 57%]54%70%+0.13+0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 2 QC2.25 [1.91, 2.60]0.64-0.28 [-0.92, 0.36]3.06 [2.74, 3.34]37% [17%, 57%]54%70%+0.13+0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 2 QC2.25 [1.91, 2.60]0.64-0.28 [-0.92, 0.36]3.06 [2.74, 3.34]37% [17%, 57%]54%70%+0.13+0.602026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at ALL, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-29: -3.58 °F2026-08-30: -3.17 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.17
2026-08-29-3.58

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at ALL, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 0 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.37 · P90 |e| 3.54 °F-50+5 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.500
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0823.37 -3.37

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +0.61 [0.55, 0.67] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.55 [-2.55, -2.55] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -1.19 [-1.33, -1.06] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.15 [-0.15, -0.15] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.08 [0.08, 0.09] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +1.03 [0.96, 1.09] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.20 [-2.20, -2.20] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -1.34 [-1.52, -1.16] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +0.42 [0.39, 0.45] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.23 [0.23, 0.23] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 +1.00 [0.57, 1.43] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, ALL pangu_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: ALL (All stations (mean of daily station errors)), model pangu_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence