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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

All stations (mean of daily station errors) · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

ALL · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.64 [3.22, 3.85]0.93-2.35 [-2.81, -1.74]4.60 [4.10, 4.86]20% [17%, 22%]33%48%+0.15+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.64 [3.05, 3.85]0.93-2.35 [-2.80, -1.63]4.60 [3.91, 4.88]20% [17%, 22%]33%48%+0.15+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.64 [3.04, 3.86]0.93-2.35 [-2.86, -1.58]4.60 [3.85, 4.89]20% [17%, 22%]33%48%+0.15+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.64 [3.03, 3.85]0.93-2.35 [-2.82, -1.58]4.60 [3.81, 4.88]20% [17%, 22%]33%48%+0.15+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC3.82 [3.44, 4.01]1.00-2.41 [-2.88, -1.75]4.88 [4.38, 5.13]17% [16%, 19%]33%46%+0.10+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC3.82 [3.37, 4.03]1.00-2.41 [-2.88, -1.68]4.88 [4.34, 5.17]17% [16%, 21%]33%46%+0.10+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC3.82 [3.39, 4.03]1.00-2.41 [-2.94, -1.61]4.88 [4.34, 5.18]17% [16%, 21%]33%46%+0.10+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC3.82 [3.36, 4.02]1.00-2.41 [-2.90, -1.58]4.88 [4.33, 5.16]17% [16%, 21%]33%46%+0.10+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC4.06 [3.60, 4.39]0.97-3.08 [-3.67, -2.33]4.97 [4.50, 5.30]12% [9%, 17%]28%43%+0.06+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC4.06 [3.36, 4.37]0.97-3.08 [-3.71, -2.28]4.97 [4.25, 5.30]12% [9%, 18%]28%43%+0.06+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC4.06 [3.36, 4.42]0.97-3.08 [-3.80, -2.26]4.97 [4.27, 5.37]12% [9%, 18%]28%43%+0.06+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC4.06 [3.37, 4.45]0.97-3.08 [-3.85, -2.22]4.97 [4.29, 5.36]12% [9%, 18%]28%43%+0.06+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC4.28 [3.93, 4.57]1.02-3.10 [-3.73, -2.31]5.21 [4.87, 5.51]11% [9%, 14%]25%39%+0.01+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC4.28 [3.87, 4.58]1.02-3.10 [-3.78, -2.13]5.21 [4.86, 5.51]11% [9%, 15%]25%39%+0.01+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC4.28 [3.87, 4.62]1.02-3.10 [-3.84, -2.13]5.21 [4.86, 5.55]11% [8%, 15%]25%39%+0.01+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC4.28 [3.86, 4.65]1.02-3.10 [-3.88, -2.13]5.21 [4.84, 5.58]11% [8%, 15%]25%39%+0.01+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.17 [2.85, 3.55]0.68+1.82 [1.54, 2.13]4.17 [3.77, 4.63]25% [19%, 28%]42%55%+0.15+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.17 [2.86, 3.64]0.68+1.82 [1.55, 2.19]4.17 [3.78, 4.72]25% [17%, 28%]42%55%+0.15+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.17 [2.82, 3.58]0.68+1.82 [1.54, 2.16]4.17 [3.73, 4.68]25% [17%, 28%]42%55%+0.15+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.17 [2.81, 3.63]0.68+1.82 [1.52, 2.19]4.17 [3.73, 4.72]25% [17%, 28%]42%55%+0.15+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC3.37 [3.00, 3.76]0.69+1.85 [1.59, 2.16]4.44 [3.97, 4.93]22% [19%, 26%]40%54%+0.10+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC3.37 [3.00, 3.84]0.69+1.85 [1.59, 2.21]4.44 [3.99, 5.00]22% [18%, 27%]40%54%+0.10+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC3.37 [2.94, 3.79]0.69+1.85 [1.59, 2.19]4.44 [3.92, 4.99]22% [18%, 27%]40%54%+0.10+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC3.37 [2.94, 3.84]0.69+1.85 [1.58, 2.23]4.44 [3.92, 5.00]22% [18%, 27%]40%54%+0.10+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC2.98 [2.70, 3.40]0.78+1.61 [1.34, 1.95]3.96 [3.56, 4.53]24% [20%, 27%]46%61%+0.20+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC2.98 [2.68, 3.75]0.78+1.61 [1.32, 2.00]3.96 [3.56, 4.87]24% [16%, 27%]46%61%+0.20+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC2.98 [2.68, 3.73]0.78+1.61 [1.29, 2.00]3.96 [3.54, 4.81]24% [15%, 27%]46%61%+0.20+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC2.98 [2.66, 3.73]0.78+1.61 [1.25, 2.00]3.96 [3.48, 4.82]24% [16%, 27%]46%61%+0.20+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC3.11 [2.78, 3.53]0.78+1.66 [1.39, 1.99]4.18 [3.72, 4.74]24% [20%, 27%]46%60%+0.17+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC3.11 [2.75, 3.89]0.78+1.66 [1.38, 2.19]4.18 [3.74, 5.09]24% [19%, 28%]46%60%+0.17+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC3.11 [2.78, 3.89]0.78+1.66 [1.37, 2.19]4.18 [3.70, 5.01]24% [19%, 28%]46%60%+0.17+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC3.11 [2.72, 3.89]0.78+1.66 [1.35, 2.19]4.18 [3.65, 5.04]24% [19%, 28%]46%60%+0.17+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at ALL, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-08: -2.33 °F2026-08-14: -1.4 °F2026-08-15: -2.26 °F2026-08-16: -0.33 °F2026-08-17: -4.22 °F2026-08-18: -1.63 °F2026-08-19: -4.24 °F2026-08-20: -2.49 °F2026-08-21: -2.46 °F2026-08-22: -2.78 °F2026-08-23: -4.18 °F2026-08-24: -3.35 °F2026-08-25: -0.64 °F2026-08-26: -2.45 °F2026-08-27: -2.96 °F2026-08-28: -2.73 °F2026-08-29: -0.42 °F2026-08-30: -1.39 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.39
2026-08-29-0.42
2026-08-28-2.73
2026-08-27-2.96
2026-08-26-2.45
2026-08-25-0.64
2026-08-24-3.35
2026-08-23-4.18
2026-08-22-2.78
2026-08-21-2.46
2026-08-20-2.49
2026-08-19-4.24
2026-08-18-1.63
2026-08-17-4.22
2026-08-16-0.33
2026-08-15-2.26
2026-08-14-1.40
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-2.33

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at ALL, lead day 7-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2.5 °F: 3 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 1 day-1.5 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 1 day-0.5 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.45 · P90 |e| 4.19 °F-50+5 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.003
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.001
-3.00-2.503
-2.50-2.005
-2.00-1.501
-1.50-1.002
-1.00-0.501
-0.50+0.002
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.35 -2.35

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.67 [-1.32, -0.16] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -0.30 [-0.93, 0.08] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -2.47 [-2.83, -2.06] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.62 [-1.59, -0.24] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, ALL ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: ALL (All stations (mean of daily station errors)), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence