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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

All stations (mean of daily station errors) · Aurora (GFS init) · lead day 0

ALL · aurora_gfs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC5.80 [5.53, 6.08]0.27-5.80 [-6.08, -5.53]6.39 [6.00, 6.75]4% [0%, 9%]7%13%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC5.80 [5.53, 6.08]0.27-5.80 [-6.08, -5.53]6.39 [6.00, 6.75]4% [0%, 9%]7%13%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC5.80 [5.53, 6.08]0.27-5.80 [-6.08, -5.53]6.39 [6.00, 6.75]4% [0%, 9%]7%13%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 2 QC5.80 [5.53, 6.08]0.27-5.80 [-6.08, -5.53]6.39 [6.00, 6.75]4% [0%, 9%]7%13%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 2 QC5.71 [5.41, 6.01]0.30-5.71 [-6.01, -5.41]6.36 [5.90, 6.79]4% [0%, 9%]9%15%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 2 QC5.71 [5.41, 6.01]0.30-5.71 [-6.01, -5.41]6.36 [5.90, 6.79]4% [0%, 9%]9%15%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 2 QC5.71 [5.41, 6.01]0.30-5.71 [-6.01, -5.41]6.36 [5.90, 6.79]4% [0%, 9%]9%15%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 2 QC5.71 [5.41, 6.01]0.30-5.71 [-6.01, -5.41]6.36 [5.90, 6.79]4% [0%, 9%]9%15%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC2.69 [2.68, 2.71]0.80+0.41 [-0.39, 1.21]3.55 [3.50, 3.61]30% [30%, 30%]50%63%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC2.69 [2.68, 2.71]0.80+0.41 [-0.39, 1.21]3.55 [3.50, 3.61]30% [30%, 30%]50%63%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC2.69 [2.68, 2.71]0.80+0.41 [-0.39, 1.21]3.55 [3.50, 3.61]30% [30%, 30%]50%63%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 2 QC2.69 [2.68, 2.71]0.80+0.41 [-0.39, 1.21]3.55 [3.50, 3.61]30% [30%, 30%]50%63%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 2 QC2.68 [2.65, 2.71]0.85+0.39 [-0.46, 1.24]3.65 [3.56, 3.73]37% [35%, 39%]52%65%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 2 QC2.68 [2.65, 2.71]0.85+0.39 [-0.46, 1.24]3.65 [3.56, 3.73]37% [35%, 39%]52%65%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 2 QC2.68 [2.65, 2.71]0.85+0.39 [-0.46, 1.24]3.65 [3.56, 3.73]37% [35%, 39%]52%65%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 2 QC2.68 [2.65, 2.71]0.85+0.39 [-0.46, 1.24]3.65 [3.56, 3.73]37% [35%, 39%]52%65%——2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at ALL, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -6.08 °F2026-08-30: -5.53 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.53
2026-08-29-6.08

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (GFS init) at ALL, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.8 · P90 |e| 6.02 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0825.80 -5.80

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +2.31 [2.23, 2.38] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 +0.82 [0.57, 1.08] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +1.44 [1.31, 1.56] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.62 [1.57, 1.67] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +2.87 [2.78, 2.96] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +0.20 [0.18, 0.21] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 +0.86 [0.64, 1.08] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +2.13 [1.84, 2.41] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +2.06 [1.92, 2.21] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +2.14 [2.13, 2.14] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, ALL aurora_gfs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/aurora_gfs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: ALL (All stations (mean of daily station errors)), model aurora_gfs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/aurora_gfs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence