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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

All stations (mean of daily station errors) · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

ALL · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.60 [3.44, 3.72]0.70-2.51 [-2.80, -2.11]4.34 [4.15, 4.49]14% [12%, 16%]28%47%-0.01+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.60 [3.40, 3.72]0.70-2.51 [-2.81, -2.00]4.34 [4.11, 4.51]14% [12%, 17%]28%47%-0.01+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.60 [3.41, 3.73]0.70-2.51 [-2.84, -2.01]4.34 [4.11, 4.52]14% [12%, 17%]28%47%-0.01+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.60 [3.37, 3.74]0.70-2.51 [-2.82, -1.95]4.34 [4.07, 4.52]14% [11%, 16%]28%47%-0.01+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC3.77 [3.60, 3.88]0.75-2.51 [-2.91, -1.98]4.57 [4.28, 4.77]14% [11%, 16%]29%44%-0.06+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC3.77 [3.57, 3.89]0.75-2.51 [-2.93, -1.86]4.57 [4.23, 4.79]14% [11%, 17%]29%44%-0.06+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC3.77 [3.53, 3.90]0.75-2.51 [-2.93, -1.87]4.57 [4.19, 4.78]14% [11%, 17%]29%44%-0.06+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC3.77 [3.53, 3.90]0.75-2.51 [-2.94, -1.84]4.57 [4.19, 4.81]14% [11%, 17%]29%44%-0.06+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.65 [3.54, 3.77]0.58-2.89 [-3.05, -2.67]4.35 [4.22, 4.48]14% [11%, 16%]28%46%-0.03+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.65 [3.53, 3.80]0.58-2.89 [-3.05, -2.58]4.35 [4.19, 4.50]14% [11%, 16%]28%46%-0.03+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.65 [3.52, 3.81]0.58-2.89 [-3.06, -2.59]4.35 [4.19, 4.51]14% [11%, 16%]28%46%-0.03+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.65 [3.52, 3.80]0.58-2.89 [-3.05, -2.55]4.35 [4.19, 4.50]14% [10%, 16%]28%46%-0.03+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC3.79 [3.63, 3.97]0.57-2.94 [-3.17, -2.65]4.56 [4.35, 4.76]11% [9%, 14%]26%45%-0.07+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC3.79 [3.59, 4.03]0.57-2.94 [-3.18, -2.54]4.56 [4.30, 4.80]11% [9%, 14%]26%45%-0.07+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC3.79 [3.58, 4.05]0.57-2.94 [-3.20, -2.56]4.56 [4.30, 4.83]11% [8%, 15%]26%45%-0.07+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC3.79 [3.59, 4.01]0.57-2.94 [-3.18, -2.52]4.56 [4.27, 4.79]11% [8%, 15%]26%45%-0.07+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.77 [2.60, 3.06]0.54+1.60 [1.31, 1.96]3.59 [3.37, 3.98]24% [20%, 26%]48%63%+0.11+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.77 [2.60, 3.18]0.54+1.60 [1.29, 2.05]3.59 [3.38, 4.12]24% [18%, 26%]48%63%+0.11+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.77 [2.58, 3.19]0.54+1.60 [1.25, 2.07]3.59 [3.36, 4.15]24% [18%, 26%]48%63%+0.11+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.77 [2.58, 3.15]0.54+1.60 [1.23, 2.03]3.59 [3.35, 4.19]24% [17%, 26%]48%63%+0.11+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC2.94 [2.76, 3.22]0.54+1.70 [1.39, 2.05]3.80 [3.56, 4.20]24% [22%, 26%]46%60%+0.05+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC2.94 [2.77, 3.30]0.54+1.70 [1.35, 2.16]3.80 [3.57, 4.30]24% [22%, 26%]46%60%+0.05+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC2.94 [2.75, 3.33]0.54+1.70 [1.31, 2.17]3.80 [3.55, 4.36]24% [21%, 27%]46%60%+0.05+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC2.94 [2.74, 3.30]0.54+1.70 [1.30, 2.13]3.80 [3.54, 4.42]24% [21%, 27%]46%60%+0.05+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.50 [2.34, 2.70]0.60+1.22 [0.91, 1.54]3.27 [2.99, 3.56]27% [23%, 29%]52%68%+0.20+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.50 [2.33, 2.78]0.60+1.22 [0.88, 1.58]3.27 [2.98, 3.62]27% [22%, 30%]52%68%+0.20+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.50 [2.32, 2.76]0.60+1.22 [0.88, 1.62]3.27 [2.96, 3.64]27% [22%, 30%]52%68%+0.20+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.50 [2.33, 2.83]0.60+1.22 [0.85, 1.59]3.27 [2.98, 3.72]27% [22%, 30%]52%68%+0.20+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC2.63 [2.43, 2.83]0.60+1.27 [0.95, 1.60]3.46 [3.16, 3.79]27% [25%, 29%]49%65%+0.16+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC2.63 [2.43, 2.87]0.60+1.27 [0.92, 1.67]3.46 [3.13, 3.86]27% [25%, 30%]49%65%+0.16+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC2.63 [2.41, 2.87]0.60+1.27 [0.89, 1.70]3.46 [3.10, 3.86]27% [25%, 30%]49%65%+0.16+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC2.63 [2.41, 2.88]0.60+1.27 [0.87, 1.65]3.46 [3.12, 3.97]27% [25%, 30%]49%65%+0.16+0.332026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at ALL, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-04: -1.64 °F2026-08-10: -1.4 °F2026-08-11: -3.77 °F2026-08-12: -2.46 °F2026-08-13: -1.01 °F2026-08-14: -2.95 °F2026-08-15: -1.19 °F2026-08-16: -2.26 °F2026-08-17: -2.47 °F2026-08-18: -1.9 °F2026-08-19: -2.84 °F2026-08-20: -3.81 °F2026-08-21: -1.86 °F2026-08-22: -2.8 °F2026-08-23: -3.05 °F2026-08-24: -3.2 °F2026-08-25: -2.23 °F2026-08-26: -2.65 °F2026-08-27: -3.3 °F2026-08-28: -3.57 °F2026-08-29: -3.37 °F2026-08-30: -1.48 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.48
2026-08-29-3.37
2026-08-28-3.57
2026-08-27-3.30
2026-08-26-2.65
2026-08-25-2.23
2026-08-24-3.20
2026-08-23-3.05
2026-08-22-2.80
2026-08-21-1.86
2026-08-20-3.81
2026-08-19-2.84
2026-08-18-1.90
2026-08-17-2.47
2026-08-16-2.26
2026-08-15-1.19
2026-08-14-2.95
2026-08-13-1.01
2026-08-12-2.46
2026-08-11-3.77
2026-08-10-1.40
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-1.64

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at ALL, lead day 3-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 3 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 4 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 3 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.56 · P90 |e| 3.55 °F-50+5 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.503
-3.50-3.004
-3.00-2.504
-2.50-2.004
-2.00-1.503
-1.50-1.004
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.51 -2.51

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.03 [-0.26, 0.18] no
NCEP GFS 22 +0.35 [-0.10, 0.60] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.59 [-2.23, -1.22] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.04 [-0.48, 0.20] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, ALL ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: ALL (All stations (mean of daily station errors)), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/ALL/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence