KSFO — San Francisco Intl
37.6196, -122.3656 · 3 m· standard offset UTC-8 h · truth product CLISFO
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.58-4.49 · n=30 | 4.65-4.42 · n=29 | 4.58-4.29 · n=28 | 4.42-4.17 · n=27 | 4.69-4.44 · n=26 | 4.52-4.22 · n=25 | 4.86-4.64 · n=24 | 5.34-4.54 · n=23 | 5.35-4.31 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 7.68-7.68 · n=2 | 6.64-6.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 5.42-5.42 · n=3 | 8.32-8.32 · n=2 | 8.34-8.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 5.01-5.01 · n=2 | 1.41-1.41 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.34-1.87 · n=3 | 2.45-2.45 · n=2 | 1.61-1.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 4.74-4.35 · n=30 | 4.75-4.49 · n=29 | 4.58-4.30 · n=28 | 4.70-4.31 · n=27 | 4.57-4.44 · n=26 | 4.69-4.30 · n=25 | 4.65-4.40 · n=24 | 4.86-4.73 · n=23 | 4.89-4.86 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.19-6.19 · n=2 | 4.64-4.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.39-4.23 · n=34 | 4.75-4.62 · n=33 | 4.83-4.75 · n=32 | 4.72-4.50 · n=31 | 4.61-4.50 · n=31 | 4.89-4.65 · n=31 | 4.95-4.72 · n=30 | 5.12-4.91 · n=29 | 5.70-5.28 · n=28 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 6.17-6.17 · n=25 | 6.71-6.71 · n=22 | 5.98-5.98 · n=23 | 6.33-6.33 · n=22 | 6.33-6.33 · n=20 | 6.20-6.20 · n=18 | 5.98-5.91 · n=19 | 5.44-5.42 · n=18 | 5.37-5.14 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 7.29-7.29 · n=2 | 6.64-6.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.74-4.11 · n=3 | 6.70-6.70 · n=2 | 6.39-6.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.67+0.04 · n=365 | 4.78+0.04 · n=365 | 5.25+0.06 · n=365 | 5.58+0.07 · n=365 | 5.70+0.07 · n=365 | 5.68+0.07 · n=365 | 5.60+0.06 · n=365 | 5.64+0.04 · n=365 | 5.70+0.05 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 0.87-0.43 · n=30 | 0.94-0.45 · n=29 | 1.05-0.50 · n=28 | 1.18-0.62 · n=27 | 1.30-0.72 · n=26 | 1.36-0.60 · n=25 | 1.55-0.57 · n=24 | 1.74-0.42 · n=23 | 1.65-0.17 · n=22 | — | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.57+0.24 · n=2 | 0.33-0.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 0.98+0.35 · n=3 | 1.11-0.29 · n=2 | 1.25-1.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.85-4.85 · n=2 | 2.12-2.12 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.71-2.24 · n=3 | 1.23-1.23 · n=2 | 0.40-0.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.05-0.34 · n=30 | 0.91-0.19 · n=29 | 0.93-0.24 · n=28 | 0.82-0.35 · n=27 | 1.04-0.52 · n=26 | 0.98-0.63 · n=25 | 1.06-0.74 · n=24 | 1.15-0.41 · n=23 | 0.98-0.38 · n=22 | — | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.62+0.12 · n=2 | 0.89-0.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 0.70+0.48 · n=34 | 0.78+0.20 · n=33 | 0.93-0.03 · n=32 | 1.23-0.31 · n=31 | 1.32-0.52 · n=31 | 1.53-0.62 · n=31 | 1.67-0.63 · n=30 | 1.98-0.45 · n=29 | 1.89-0.03 · n=28 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 0.78-0.17 · n=25 | 0.87-0.13 · n=22 | 0.95-0.08 · n=23 | 0.91-0.08 · n=22 | 0.75-0.15 · n=20 | 0.64-0.21 · n=18 | 0.89-0.38 · n=19 | 1.25-0.29 · n=18 | 1.38+0.19 · n=17 | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 0.66+0.17 · n=2 | 0.55-0.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.21+1.12 · n=3 | 1.13+0.42 · n=2 | 0.08+0.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.93+0.00 · n=365 | 2.43+0.01 · n=365 | 2.67+0.02 · n=365 | 2.96+0.02 · n=365 | 3.13+0.03 · n=365 | 3.24+0.04 · n=365 | 3.36+0.04 · n=365 | 3.45+0.04 · n=365 | 3.42+0.03 · n=365 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences