{"castcheck_version":"0.1.0","schema_version":"0.1","methodology_version":"0.2","generated_at":"2026-08-31T03:51:00+00:00","computed_at":"2026-08-31T03:51:00+00:00","data_through":"2026-08-30","next_update":"2026-08-31T11:00:00+00:00","window":{"type":"multiple","days":null,"start":"2024-01-02","end":"2026-08-30"},"units":{"mae":"degC","bias":"degC","rmse":"degC","mae_ci_low":"degC","mae_ci_high":"degC","bias_ci_low":"degC","bias_ci_high":"degC","mae_diff":"degC","ci_low":"degC","ci_high":"degC","n":"days","n_common":"days","hit1f":"fraction","hit2f":"fraction","hit3f":"fraction","skill_persistence":"fraction","init_hour":"UTC hour","lead_day":"days"},"method":{"ci":"circular moving-block bootstrap over climatological days","resamples":1000,"level":0.95,"block":"7 days","min_n":30,"ref":"https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/methodology/"},"truth":{"source":"NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI), first final issuance after local midnight","fallback":["CF6 monthly summary","hourly station observations (flagged)"],"policy":"first-final; later corrections are stored but never change a published score"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0 (CastCheck derived data); see /data/ for upstream licences","site":"https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com","station_id":"ALL","model_id":"persistence","lead_day":2,"model_version":"obs","segment_start":"2024-01-01","permalink":"/station/ALL/model/persistence/lead/2/","scores":{"columns":["init_hour","variable","method","window","n","n_stations","n_flagged","mae","bias","rmse","hit1f","hit2f","hit3f","mae_debiased","skill_persistence","skill_persistence_debiased","mae_ci_low","mae_ci_high","bias_ci_low","bias_ci_high","rmse_ci_low","rmse_ci_high","hit1f_ci_low","hit1f_ci_high","period_start","period_end"],"rows":[[0,"tmax","bilinear","30d",30,22.933,2,1.893,0.067,2.665,0.28,0.474,0.577,0.586,null,null,1.675,2.135,-0.155,0.295,2.326,3.049,0.246,0.31,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","30d",30,22.933,2,1.893,0.067,2.665,0.28,0.474,0.577,0.586,null,null,1.675,2.135,-0.155,0.295,2.326,3.049,0.246,0.31,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","30d",30,22.933,2,1.893,0.067,2.665,0.28,0.474,0.577,0.586,null,null,1.675,2.135,-0.155,0.295,2.326,3.049,0.246,0.31,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","30d",30,22.933,2,1.893,0.067,2.665,0.28,0.474,0.577,0.586,null,null,1.675,2.135,-0.155,0.295,2.326,3.049,0.246,0.31,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","bilinear","365d",365,22.989,4,3.714,-0.013,5.207,0.165,0.293,0.379,1.593,null,null,3.368,4.071,-0.23,0.19,4.738,5.678,0.149,0.183,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","365d",365,22.989,4,3.714,-0.013,5.207,0.165,0.293,0.379,1.593,null,null,3.368,4.071,-0.23,0.19,4.738,5.678,0.149,0.183,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","365d",365,22.989,4,3.714,-0.013,5.207,0.165,0.293,0.379,1.593,null,null,3.368,4.071,-0.23,0.19,4.738,5.678,0.149,0.183,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","365d",365,22.989,4,3.714,-0.013,5.207,0.165,0.293,0.379,1.593,null,null,3.368,4.071,-0.23,0.19,4.738,5.678,0.149,0.183,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","bilinear","90d",90,22.978,2,2.409,-0.081,3.358,0.224,0.416,0.508,0.92,null,null,2.166,2.662,-0.29,0.112,3.052,3.657,0.191,0.256,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","90d",90,22.978,2,2.409,-0.081,3.358,0.224,0.416,0.508,0.92,null,null,2.166,2.662,-0.29,0.112,3.052,3.657,0.191,0.256,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","90d",90,22.978,2,2.409,-0.081,3.358,0.224,0.416,0.508,0.92,null,null,2.166,2.662,-0.29,0.112,3.052,3.657,0.191,0.256,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","90d",90,22.978,2,2.409,-0.081,3.358,0.224,0.416,0.508,0.92,null,null,2.166,2.662,-0.29,0.112,3.052,3.657,0.191,0.256,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","bilinear","all",971,22.981,7,3.668,-0.041,5.08,0.158,0.281,0.365,1.561,null,null,3.488,3.857,-0.181,0.09,4.841,5.329,0.149,0.166,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","all",971,22.981,7,3.668,-0.041,5.08,0.158,0.281,0.365,1.561,null,null,3.488,3.857,-0.181,0.09,4.841,5.329,0.149,0.166,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","all",971,22.981,7,3.668,-0.041,5.08,0.158,0.281,0.365,1.561,null,null,3.488,3.857,-0.181,0.09,4.841,5.329,0.149,0.166,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","all",971,22.981,7,3.668,-0.041,5.08,0.158,0.281,0.365,1.561,null,null,3.488,3.857,-0.181,0.09,4.841,5.329,0.149,0.166,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","30d",30,22.933,2,1.665,0.054,2.294,0.359,0.52,0.623,0.511,null,null,1.488,1.868,-0.148,0.249,2.061,2.575,0.322,0.392,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","30d",30,22.933,2,1.665,0.054,2.294,0.359,0.52,0.623,0.511,null,null,1.488,1.868,-0.148,0.249,2.061,2.575,0.322,0.392,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","30d",30,22.933,2,1.665,0.054,2.294,0.359,0.52,0.623,0.511,null,null,1.488,1.868,-0.148,0.249,2.061,2.575,0.322,0.392,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","30d",30,22.933,2,1.665,0.054,2.294,0.359,0.52,0.623,0.511,null,null,1.488,1.868,-0.148,0.249,2.061,2.575,0.322,0.392,"2026-08-01","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","365d",365,22.989,2,3.022,-0.011,4.219,0.197,0.316,0.431,1.441,null,null,2.734,3.329,-0.238,0.19,3.822,4.622,0.171,0.222,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","365d",365,22.989,2,3.022,-0.011,4.219,0.197,0.316,0.431,1.441,null,null,2.734,3.329,-0.238,0.19,3.822,4.622,0.171,0.222,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","365d",365,22.989,2,3.022,-0.011,4.219,0.197,0.316,0.431,1.441,null,null,2.734,3.329,-0.238,0.19,3.822,4.622,0.171,0.222,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","365d",365,22.989,2,3.022,-0.011,4.219,0.197,0.316,0.431,1.441,null,null,2.734,3.329,-0.238,0.19,3.822,4.622,0.171,0.222,"2025-08-31","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","90d",90,22.978,2,1.851,-0.108,2.488,0.313,0.47,0.591,0.701,null,null,1.742,1.978,-0.285,0.064,2.349,2.638,0.282,0.339,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","90d",90,22.978,2,1.851,-0.108,2.488,0.313,0.47,0.591,0.701,null,null,1.742,1.978,-0.285,0.064,2.349,2.638,0.282,0.339,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","90d",90,22.978,2,1.851,-0.108,2.488,0.313,0.47,0.591,0.701,null,null,1.742,1.978,-0.285,0.064,2.349,2.638,0.282,0.339,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","90d",90,22.978,2,1.851,-0.108,2.488,0.313,0.47,0.591,0.701,null,null,1.742,1.978,-0.285,0.064,2.349,2.638,0.282,0.339,"2026-06-02","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","all",971,22.979,5,2.914,-0.038,4.063,0.201,0.319,0.435,1.35,null,null,2.744,3.084,-0.168,0.089,3.844,4.287,0.187,0.216,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","all",971,22.979,5,2.914,-0.038,4.063,0.201,0.319,0.435,1.35,null,null,2.744,3.084,-0.168,0.089,3.844,4.287,0.187,0.216,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","all",971,22.979,5,2.914,-0.038,4.063,0.201,0.319,0.435,1.35,null,null,2.744,3.084,-0.168,0.089,3.844,4.287,0.187,0.216,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","all",971,22.979,5,2.914,-0.038,4.063,0.201,0.319,0.435,1.35,null,null,2.744,3.084,-0.168,0.089,3.844,4.287,0.187,0.216,"2024-01-03","2026-08-30"]]},"pairwise_scope":{"window":"90d","init_hour":0,"method":"bilinear","note":"every window/init/method is in pairwise/latest.json"},"pairwise":{"columns":["station_id","init_hour","lead_day","variable","window","model_a","model_b","n_common","mae_diff","ci_low","ci_high","significant","method"],"rows":[["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","aifs_single","persistence",28,0.18,-0.06,0.33,false,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","aurora_ifs","persistence",1,0.928,0.928,0.928,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","fourcastnet_ifs","persistence",1,0.17,0.17,0.17,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","gfs","persistence",28,-0.125,-0.322,0.02,false,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","graphcast_ifs","persistence",26,0.985,0.659,1.184,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","ifs_hres","persistence",23,0.155,-0.007,0.359,false,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmax","90d","pangu_ifs","persistence",1,0.381,0.381,0.381,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","aifs_single","persistence",28,-0.345,-0.532,-0.205,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","aurora_ifs","persistence",1,-0.399,-0.399,-0.399,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","fourcastnet_ifs","persistence",1,-0.387,-0.387,-0.387,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","gfs","persistence",28,-0.006,-0.158,0.112,false,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","graphcast_ifs","persistence",26,-0.408,-0.564,-0.261,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","ifs_hres","persistence",23,-0.188,-0.363,0.102,false,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,2,"tmin","90d","pangu_ifs","persistence",1,-0.495,-0.495,-0.495,true,"bilinear"]]},"series_days":90,"series_scope":{"init_hour":0,"method":"bilinear","note":"other init/method slices and the matching forecast and observation values are in /data/daily_errors.csv.gz"},"series":[]}