{"castcheck_version":"0.1.0","schema_version":"0.3","methodology_version":"0.3.1","generated_at":"2026-08-31T06:27:35+00:00","computed_at":"2026-08-31T06:27:35+00:00","data_through":"2026-08-30","next_update":"2026-08-31T11:00:00+00:00","window":{"type":"multiple","days":null,"start":"2026-01-01","end":"2026-08-30"},"units":{"mae":"degC","bias":"degC","rmse":"degC","mae_ci_low":"degC","mae_ci_high":"degC","bias_ci_low":"degC","bias_ci_high":"degC","mae_diff":"degC","ci_low":"degC","ci_high":"degC","n":"days","n_common":"days","n_debiased":"days","hit1f":"fraction","hit2f":"fraction","hit3f":"fraction","hit1f_ci_low":"fraction","hit1f_ci_high":"fraction","skill_persistence":"fraction","skill_persistence_debiased":"fraction","skill_ci_low":"fraction","skill_ci_high":"fraction","mae_persistence_common":"degC","mae_debiased":"degC","p_boot":"probability","init_hour":"UTC hour","lead_day":"days"},"method":{"ci":"circular moving-block bootstrap on each group's own realized date axis","resamples":1000,"level":0.95,"block":"7 days","min_n":30,"ci_min_n":28,"ci_min_blocks":4,"ci_absent":"null when n < ci_min_n or fewer than ci_min_blocks blocks","proportions":"Wilson score intervals (hit rates), not bootstrapped","skill_denominator":"mae_persistence_common on n_common days","debiasing":"out-of-sample: bias of the trailing 30 scored days before each day, min 15","multiplicity":"pairwise carries distinguishable_uncorrected, p_boot and distinguishable_holm; only the Holm flag is marked on the site","ref":"https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/methodology/"},"truth":{"source":"observed 2 m temperature at 00/06/12/18 UTC (routine METAR within +/-35 min) for t2* and for tmax_s/tmin_s; NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI), first final issuance after local midnight, for tmax_cli/tmin_cli","fallback":["CF6 monthly summary","hourly station observations (flagged)"],"policy":"first-final; later corrections are stored but never change a published score"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0 (CastCheck derived data); see /data/ for upstream licences","site":"https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com","station_id":"ALL","model_id":"pangu_gfs","lead_day":2,"model_version":"PANG_v100","segment_start":"2026-08-28","permalink":"/station/ALL/model/pangu_gfs/lead/2/","scores":{"columns":["init_hour","variable","method","window","n","n_stations","n_flagged","mae","bias","rmse","hit1f","hit2f","hit3f","mae_debiased","n_debiased","n_common","mae_persistence_common","skill_persistence","skill_persistence_debiased","skill_ci_low","skill_ci_high","mae_ci_low","mae_ci_high","bias_ci_low","bias_ci_high","rmse_ci_low","rmse_ci_high","hit1f_ci_low","hit1f_ci_high","period_start","period_end"],"rows":[[12,"t2","bilinear","30d",1,15.0,0,1.551,-0.352,1.841,0.183,0.367,0.6,null,0,1,1.868,0.169,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.008,0.861,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","nearest","30d",1,15.0,0,1.56,-0.325,1.86,0.167,0.4,0.583,null,0,1,1.868,0.165,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.856,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","bilinear","365d",1,15.0,0,1.551,-0.352,1.841,0.183,0.367,0.6,null,0,1,1.868,0.169,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.008,0.861,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","nearest","365d",1,15.0,0,1.56,-0.325,1.86,0.167,0.4,0.583,null,0,1,1.868,0.165,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.856,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","bilinear","90d",1,15.0,0,1.551,-0.352,1.841,0.183,0.367,0.6,null,0,1,1.868,0.169,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.008,0.861,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","nearest","90d",1,15.0,0,1.56,-0.325,1.86,0.167,0.4,0.583,null,0,1,1.868,0.165,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.856,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","bilinear","all",1,15.0,0,1.551,-0.352,1.841,0.183,0.367,0.6,null,0,1,1.868,0.169,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.008,0.861,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2","nearest","all",1,15.0,0,1.56,-0.325,1.86,0.167,0.4,0.583,null,0,1,1.868,0.165,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.856,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","bilinear","30d",1,23.0,0,2.184,-1.166,2.767,0.174,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.196,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.858,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","nearest","30d",1,23.0,0,2.217,-1.244,2.771,0.13,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.184,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","bilinear","365d",1,23.0,0,2.184,-1.166,2.767,0.174,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.196,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.858,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","nearest","365d",1,23.0,0,2.217,-1.244,2.771,0.13,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.184,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","bilinear","90d",1,23.0,0,2.184,-1.166,2.767,0.174,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.196,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.858,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","nearest","90d",1,23.0,0,2.217,-1.244,2.771,0.13,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.184,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","bilinear","all",1,23.0,0,2.184,-1.166,2.767,0.174,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.196,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.007,0.858,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_00z","nearest","all",1,23.0,0,2.217,-1.244,2.771,0.13,0.261,0.391,null,0,1,2.715,0.184,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","bilinear","30d",1,15.0,0,1.462,-0.601,1.698,0.2,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.226,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","nearest","30d",1,15.0,0,1.532,-0.584,1.76,0.067,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.189,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.001,0.82,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","bilinear","365d",1,15.0,0,1.462,-0.601,1.698,0.2,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.226,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","nearest","365d",1,15.0,0,1.532,-0.584,1.76,0.067,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.189,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.001,0.82,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","bilinear","90d",1,15.0,0,1.462,-0.601,1.698,0.2,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.226,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","nearest","90d",1,15.0,0,1.532,-0.584,1.76,0.067,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.189,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.001,0.82,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","bilinear","all",1,15.0,0,1.462,-0.601,1.698,0.2,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.226,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_06z","nearest","all",1,15.0,0,1.532,-0.584,1.76,0.067,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.889,0.189,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.001,0.82,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","bilinear","30d",1,23.0,0,1.403,-0.125,1.822,0.261,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.163,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.016,0.885,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","nearest","30d",1,23.0,0,1.449,-0.127,1.922,0.217,0.478,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.136,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","bilinear","365d",1,23.0,0,1.403,-0.125,1.822,0.261,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.163,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.016,0.885,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","nearest","365d",1,23.0,0,1.449,-0.127,1.922,0.217,0.478,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.136,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","bilinear","90d",1,23.0,0,1.403,-0.125,1.822,0.261,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.163,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.016,0.885,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","nearest","90d",1,23.0,0,1.449,-0.127,1.922,0.217,0.478,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.136,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","bilinear","all",1,23.0,0,1.403,-0.125,1.822,0.261,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.163,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.016,0.885,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_12z","nearest","all",1,23.0,0,1.449,-0.127,1.922,0.217,0.478,0.696,null,0,1,1.676,0.136,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","bilinear","30d",1,23.0,0,1.519,-0.108,1.741,0.087,0.348,0.739,null,0,1,1.715,0.114,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.002,0.827,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","nearest","30d",1,23.0,0,1.592,-0.165,1.856,0.13,0.391,0.652,null,0,1,1.715,0.071,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","bilinear","365d",1,23.0,0,1.519,-0.108,1.741,0.087,0.348,0.739,null,0,1,1.715,0.114,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.002,0.827,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","nearest","365d",1,23.0,0,1.592,-0.165,1.856,0.13,0.391,0.652,null,0,1,1.715,0.071,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","bilinear","90d",1,23.0,0,1.519,-0.108,1.741,0.087,0.348,0.739,null,0,1,1.715,0.114,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.002,0.827,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","nearest","90d",1,23.0,0,1.592,-0.165,1.856,0.13,0.391,0.652,null,0,1,1.715,0.071,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","bilinear","all",1,23.0,0,1.519,-0.108,1.741,0.087,0.348,0.739,null,0,1,1.715,0.114,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.002,0.827,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"t2_18z","nearest","all",1,23.0,0,1.592,-0.165,1.856,0.13,0.391,0.652,null,0,1,1.715,0.071,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","bilinear","30d",1,23.0,1,2.133,-1.838,2.431,0.13,0.174,0.391,null,0,1,1.869,-0.141,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","nearest","30d",1,23.0,1,2.231,-1.92,2.525,0.043,0.174,0.304,null,0,1,1.869,-0.194,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,0.811,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","bilinear","365d",1,23.0,1,2.133,-1.838,2.431,0.13,0.174,0.391,null,0,1,1.869,-0.141,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","nearest","365d",1,23.0,1,2.231,-1.92,2.525,0.043,0.174,0.304,null,0,1,1.869,-0.194,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,0.811,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","bilinear","90d",1,23.0,1,2.133,-1.838,2.431,0.13,0.174,0.391,null,0,1,1.869,-0.141,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","nearest","90d",1,23.0,1,2.231,-1.92,2.525,0.043,0.174,0.304,null,0,1,1.869,-0.194,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,0.811,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","bilinear","all",1,23.0,1,2.133,-1.838,2.431,0.13,0.174,0.391,null,0,1,1.869,-0.141,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_cli","nearest","all",1,23.0,1,2.231,-1.92,2.525,0.043,0.174,0.304,null,0,1,1.869,-0.194,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,0.811,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","bilinear","30d",1,15.0,0,1.558,-0.589,1.783,0.133,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.241,-0.255,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","nearest","30d",1,15.0,0,1.592,-0.57,1.82,0.133,0.4,0.533,null,0,1,1.241,-0.282,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","bilinear","365d",1,15.0,0,1.558,-0.589,1.783,0.133,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.241,-0.255,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","nearest","365d",1,15.0,0,1.592,-0.57,1.82,0.133,0.4,0.533,null,0,1,1.241,-0.282,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","bilinear","90d",1,15.0,0,1.558,-0.589,1.783,0.133,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.241,-0.255,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","nearest","90d",1,15.0,0,1.592,-0.57,1.82,0.133,0.4,0.533,null,0,1,1.241,-0.282,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","bilinear","all",1,15.0,0,1.558,-0.589,1.783,0.133,0.333,0.6,null,0,1,1.241,-0.255,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax_s","nearest","all",1,15.0,0,1.592,-0.57,1.82,0.133,0.4,0.533,null,0,1,1.241,-0.282,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.844,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","bilinear","30d",1,23.0,1,1.416,-0.192,1.749,0.13,0.391,0.739,null,0,1,1.818,0.221,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","nearest","30d",1,23.0,1,1.444,-0.197,1.857,0.217,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.818,0.206,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","bilinear","365d",1,23.0,1,1.416,-0.192,1.749,0.13,0.391,0.739,null,0,1,1.818,0.221,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","nearest","365d",1,23.0,1,1.444,-0.197,1.857,0.217,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.818,0.206,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","bilinear","90d",1,23.0,1,1.416,-0.192,1.749,0.13,0.391,0.739,null,0,1,1.818,0.221,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","nearest","90d",1,23.0,1,1.444,-0.197,1.857,0.217,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.818,0.206,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","bilinear","all",1,23.0,1,1.416,-0.192,1.749,0.13,0.391,0.739,null,0,1,1.818,0.221,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.004,0.843,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_cli","nearest","all",1,23.0,1,1.444,-0.197,1.857,0.217,0.435,0.696,null,0,1,1.818,0.206,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.011,0.872,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","bilinear","30d",1,15.0,0,1.221,-0.07,1.58,0.333,0.533,0.733,null,0,1,1.756,0.305,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.025,0.906,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","nearest","30d",1,15.0,0,1.277,-0.019,1.617,0.2,0.6,0.8,null,0,1,1.756,0.273,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","bilinear","365d",1,15.0,0,1.221,-0.07,1.58,0.333,0.533,0.733,null,0,1,1.756,0.305,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.025,0.906,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","nearest","365d",1,15.0,0,1.277,-0.019,1.617,0.2,0.6,0.8,null,0,1,1.756,0.273,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","bilinear","90d",1,15.0,0,1.221,-0.07,1.58,0.333,0.533,0.733,null,0,1,1.756,0.305,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.025,0.906,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","nearest","90d",1,15.0,0,1.277,-0.019,1.617,0.2,0.6,0.8,null,0,1,1.756,0.273,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","bilinear","all",1,15.0,0,1.221,-0.07,1.58,0.333,0.533,0.733,null,0,1,1.756,0.305,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.025,0.906,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin_s","nearest","all",1,15.0,0,1.277,-0.019,1.617,0.2,0.6,0.8,null,0,1,1.756,0.273,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.01,0.867,"2026-08-30","2026-08-30"]]},"pairwise_scope":{"window":"90d","init_hour":0,"method":"bilinear","note":"every window/init/method is in pairwise/latest.json"},"pairwise":{"columns":[],"rows":[]},"series_days":90,"series_scope":{"init_hour":0,"method":"bilinear","note":"other init/method slices and the matching forecast and observation values are in /data/daily_errors/{station}.csv.gz"},"series":[]}