{"castcheck_version":"0.1.0","schema_version":"0.1","methodology_version":"0.2","generated_at":"2026-08-31T03:51:00+00:00","computed_at":"2026-08-31T03:51:00+00:00","data_through":"2026-08-30","next_update":"2026-08-31T11:00:00+00:00","window":{"type":"multiple","days":null,"start":"2024-01-02","end":"2026-08-30"},"units":{"mae":"degC","bias":"degC","rmse":"degC","mae_ci_low":"degC","mae_ci_high":"degC","bias_ci_low":"degC","bias_ci_high":"degC","mae_diff":"degC","ci_low":"degC","ci_high":"degC","n":"days","n_common":"days","hit1f":"fraction","hit2f":"fraction","hit3f":"fraction","skill_persistence":"fraction","init_hour":"UTC hour","lead_day":"days"},"method":{"ci":"circular moving-block bootstrap over climatological days","resamples":1000,"level":0.95,"block":"7 days","min_n":30,"ref":"https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/methodology/"},"truth":{"source":"NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI), first final issuance after local midnight","fallback":["CF6 monthly summary","hourly station observations (flagged)"],"policy":"first-final; later corrections are stored but never change a published score"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0 (CastCheck derived data); see /data/ for upstream licences","site":"https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com","station_id":"ALL","model_id":"graphcast_ifs","lead_day":5,"model_version":"GRAP_v100","segment_start":"2026-01-01","permalink":"/station/ALL/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/5/","scores":{"columns":["init_hour","variable","method","window","n","n_stations","n_flagged","mae","bias","rmse","hit1f","hit2f","hit3f","mae_debiased","skill_persistence","skill_persistence_debiased","mae_ci_low","mae_ci_high","bias_ci_low","bias_ci_high","rmse_ci_low","rmse_ci_high","hit1f_ci_low","hit1f_ci_high","period_start","period_end"],"rows":[[0,"tmax","bilinear","30d",25,22.96,2,3.005,-2.817,3.45,0.049,0.132,0.233,0.343,-0.377,0.589,2.752,3.249,-3.019,-2.596,3.149,3.708,0.033,0.061,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","30d",25,22.96,2,3.09,-2.795,3.576,0.066,0.16,0.223,0.367,-0.416,0.56,2.823,3.348,-3.03,-2.54,3.264,3.847,0.043,0.084,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","30d",25,22.96,2,3.182,-3.024,3.623,0.054,0.129,0.205,0.419,-0.458,0.498,2.967,3.428,-3.267,-2.811,3.377,3.86,0.042,0.066,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","30d",25,22.96,2,3.262,-2.996,3.733,0.07,0.148,0.209,0.433,-0.495,0.481,3.019,3.538,-3.27,-2.753,3.457,3.996,0.041,0.094,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","bilinear","365d",31,22.968,3,2.988,-2.665,3.472,0.056,0.139,0.253,0.438,-0.046,0.641,2.758,3.241,-2.971,-2.291,3.196,3.723,0.039,0.074,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","365d",31,22.968,3,3.065,-2.648,3.579,0.069,0.164,0.241,0.46,-0.073,0.623,2.819,3.337,-2.976,-2.269,3.28,3.864,0.049,0.087,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","365d",30,22.967,2,3.075,-2.87,3.549,0.067,0.151,0.236,0.495,-0.103,0.586,2.772,3.369,-3.201,-2.46,3.27,3.823,0.046,0.103,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","365d",30,22.967,2,3.147,-2.85,3.648,0.077,0.165,0.239,0.504,-0.128,0.578,2.811,3.467,-3.205,-2.433,3.336,3.956,0.045,0.102,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","bilinear","90d",25,22.96,2,3.005,-2.817,3.45,0.049,0.132,0.233,0.343,-0.377,0.589,2.711,3.268,-3.036,-2.55,3.094,3.725,0.029,0.061,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","90d",25,22.96,2,3.09,-2.795,3.576,0.066,0.16,0.223,0.367,-0.416,0.56,2.791,3.377,-3.051,-2.481,3.212,3.873,0.039,0.085,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","90d",25,22.96,2,3.182,-3.024,3.623,0.054,0.129,0.205,0.419,-0.458,0.498,2.94,3.465,-3.291,-2.78,3.331,3.898,0.039,0.067,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","90d",25,22.96,2,3.262,-2.996,3.733,0.07,0.148,0.209,0.433,-0.495,0.481,2.988,3.588,-3.287,-2.708,3.424,4.043,0.035,0.094,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","bilinear","all",31,22.968,3,2.988,-2.665,3.472,0.056,0.139,0.253,0.438,-0.046,0.641,2.758,3.227,-2.953,-2.26,3.189,3.719,0.04,0.074,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmax","nearest","all",31,22.968,3,3.065,-2.648,3.579,0.069,0.164,0.241,0.46,-0.073,0.623,2.814,3.324,-2.957,-2.235,3.286,3.851,0.048,0.084,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","bilinear","all",30,22.967,2,3.075,-2.87,3.549,0.067,0.151,0.236,0.495,-0.103,0.586,2.757,3.345,-3.182,-2.438,3.246,3.799,0.046,0.105,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmax","nearest","all",30,22.967,2,3.147,-2.85,3.648,0.077,0.165,0.239,0.504,-0.128,0.578,2.807,3.451,-3.17,-2.418,3.32,3.93,0.048,0.103,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","30d",25,22.96,2,1.374,0.291,1.773,0.268,0.509,0.671,0.325,0.215,0.357,1.295,1.463,0.127,0.462,1.647,1.892,0.24,0.289,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","30d",25,22.96,2,1.38,0.3,1.808,0.287,0.526,0.678,0.327,0.212,0.353,1.28,1.479,0.132,0.48,1.663,1.935,0.253,0.318,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","30d",25,22.96,2,1.344,0.172,1.745,0.287,0.521,0.679,0.36,0.232,0.288,1.241,1.445,-0.015,0.345,1.603,1.876,0.252,0.318,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","30d",25,22.96,2,1.36,0.187,1.782,0.28,0.531,0.686,0.365,0.224,0.278,1.236,1.473,-0.007,0.363,1.617,1.93,0.25,0.318,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","365d",31,22.968,2,1.551,0.491,2.081,0.265,0.48,0.626,0.451,0.39,0.55,1.315,1.942,0.192,0.968,1.691,2.641,0.234,0.29,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","365d",31,22.968,2,1.582,0.497,2.154,0.27,0.493,0.628,0.448,0.377,0.553,1.313,2.026,0.19,0.963,1.711,2.771,0.22,0.311,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","365d",30,22.967,2,1.485,0.36,1.973,0.279,0.495,0.649,0.476,0.395,0.499,1.268,1.846,0.04,0.856,1.652,2.441,0.236,0.315,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","365d",30,22.967,2,1.514,0.367,2.033,0.27,0.501,0.652,0.467,0.384,0.508,1.268,1.91,0.051,0.84,1.666,2.546,0.229,0.31,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","90d",25,22.96,2,1.374,0.291,1.773,0.268,0.509,0.671,0.325,0.215,0.357,1.282,1.498,0.108,0.483,1.637,1.928,0.23,0.295,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","90d",25,22.96,2,1.38,0.3,1.808,0.287,0.526,0.678,0.327,0.212,0.353,1.261,1.508,0.104,0.509,1.645,1.968,0.248,0.326,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","90d",25,22.96,2,1.344,0.172,1.745,0.287,0.521,0.679,0.36,0.232,0.288,1.226,1.474,-0.037,0.369,1.588,1.902,0.242,0.323,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","90d",25,22.96,2,1.36,0.187,1.782,0.28,0.531,0.686,0.365,0.224,0.278,1.221,1.5,-0.037,0.391,1.6,1.958,0.242,0.331,"2026-08-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","bilinear","all",31,22.968,2,1.551,0.491,2.081,0.265,0.48,0.626,0.451,0.39,0.55,1.325,2.003,0.161,0.993,1.7,2.708,0.236,0.29,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[0,"tmin","nearest","all",31,22.968,2,1.582,0.497,2.154,0.27,0.493,0.628,0.448,0.377,0.553,1.324,2.085,0.167,0.993,1.73,2.85,0.218,0.309,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","bilinear","all",30,22.967,2,1.485,0.36,1.973,0.279,0.495,0.649,0.476,0.395,0.499,1.279,1.892,0.013,0.876,1.656,2.524,0.235,0.315,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"],[12,"tmin","nearest","all",30,22.967,2,1.514,0.367,2.033,0.27,0.501,0.652,0.467,0.384,0.508,1.283,1.96,0.03,0.867,1.677,2.628,0.229,0.314,"2026-01-06","2026-08-30"]]},"pairwise_scope":{"window":"90d","init_hour":0,"method":"bilinear","note":"every window/init/method is in pairwise/latest.json"},"pairwise":{"columns":["station_id","init_hour","lead_day","variable","window","model_a","model_b","n_common","mae_diff","ci_low","ci_high","significant","method"],"rows":[["ALL",0,5,"tmax","90d","aifs_single","graphcast_ifs",25,-0.837,-1.066,-0.567,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmax","90d","gfs","graphcast_ifs",25,-1.029,-1.268,-0.835,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmax","90d","graphcast_ifs","ifs_hres",18,1.058,0.719,1.275,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmax","90d","graphcast_ifs","persistence",25,0.822,0.29,1.276,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmin","90d","aifs_single","graphcast_ifs",25,0.02,-0.142,0.197,false,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmin","90d","gfs","graphcast_ifs",25,0.5,0.366,0.635,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmin","90d","graphcast_ifs","ifs_hres",18,-0.214,-0.369,-0.088,true,"bilinear"],["ALL",0,5,"tmin","90d","graphcast_ifs","persistence",25,-0.377,-0.582,-0.091,true,"bilinear"]]},"series_days":90,"series_scope":{"init_hour":0,"method":"bilinear","note":"other init/method slices and the matching forecast and observation values are in /data/daily_errors.csv.gz"},"series":[]}